HF Habs: What are your initial impressions of the Habs 2023 Draft class?

[montreal]

Because he's entering his 5th season post draft and hasn't done jack shit in the NHL.

he had 14 goals with less ave TOI then Jake Evans, how the f*** is that doing jack shit?

That puts him tied with Dach, both were 23rd OA in the NHL in goals for U-23 players.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Interesting information. However, I wouldn't say it demonstrates an overpayment as there are tons of caveats.
Were those teams up for trading down? Would we have indeed been better off with having to develop one of these guys for 3-4 years and necessarily get a better producer than where Newhook will be at by then?

Again, how do people evaluate the value across different draft classes? Feel like I'm beating a dead horse but so far, 4 years removed from his draft, Newhook tracks as the 9th point producer from his class, so essentially punching "above" his draft position. Doesn't mean he'll end up staying at that rank when all is said and done or maybe 2019 is total shite compared to 2023, but that's a lot of variables to declare confidently we overpaid in any way in this trade.

When evaluating Newhook's trade value in 2023 his draft position in 2019 is irrelevant, as is his performance relative to his draft peers.

His value is determined by his performance relative to the NHL as a whole and his performance relative to the potential of the 2023 class.

Newhook's value isn't increased because kakko has been terrible for example.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

he had 14 goals with less ave TOI then Jake Evans, how the f*** is that doing jack shit?

That puts him tied with Dach, both were 23rd OA in the NHL in goals for U-23 players.

I think your are going to offend some here with your relentless resort to logic.

 

[montreal]

Interesting information. However, I wouldn't say it demonstrates an overpayment as there are tons of caveats.
Were those teams up for trading down? Would we have indeed been better off with having to develop one of these guys for 3-4 years and necessarily get a better producer than where Newhook will be at by then?

Again, how do people evaluate the value across different draft classes? Feel like I'm beating a dead horse but so far, 4 years removed from his draft, Newhook tracks as the 9th point producer from his class, so essentially punching "above" his draft position. Doesn't mean he'll end up staying at that rank when all is said and done or maybe 2019 is total shite compared to 2023, but that's a lot of variables to declare confidently we overpaid in any way in this trade.

I wouldn't read anything into his draft class yet since it's early still.

Based off what they paid, I think it's easy to see they overpaid a little for now but 12 months from now that could look very different.

The value from the chart is based off the draft so only in hindsight would you be able to say that this was or wasn't the draft to move up or down. The thinking for the Habs is more does this speed things up and will they be in a position to make use of it, to continue to build a contender or not. It's really hard for fans to see where we are at in terms of the stages of the rebuild.

For Hughes he just better be right or he is just setting back the rebuild. Slaf, Reinbacher, Dach, Newhook, Mesar, these are what our 1st round picks have yielded lately, so he needs to hit on several of them if we are to have even a slight hope of being a contender.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

he had 14 goals with less ave TOI then Jake Evans, how the f*** is that doing jack shit?

That puts him tied with Dach, both were 23rd OA in the NHL in goals for U-23 players.

14 goals is literally a dime a dozen. You don't trade a first round pick for 14 goals.

Newhook might improve, but his trajectory thus far suggests he probably won't develop into a top 6 forward.

We'd have been better off packaging those picks to move up 10 spots and gone younger, better, and cheaper.

 

[Takeru]

I'm not sure Newhook was even worth the second round pick, nevermind the first.

The guy needs to prove he isn't a bust because all indications suggest he is.

At 22 you would hope he'd be firmly established in the top 6, and because he hasn't done that you are trading for him with the very real possibility that he's a 3rd line player.

Here's another way of looking at it. Do you think the Blackhawks or Rangers would trade Moore or Perreault straight up for Newhook? I sure don't.

I realize the 31 pick isn't as high as 19, but we also added the 37 pick and that's pretty tough to swallow given he's entering his D+5 and still hasn't shown he can play on the top two lines yet.

This trade reminds me a lot of the Dvorak trade, where we just overpaid based on need.

My dude, do you know the odds of even getting a 30pts player with a 2nd rounder?

Flip it around, if Newhook was already established, we'd never have him for the price of a pair of 2nds.

The hope is him establishing himself playing for us > odds of the player(s) we'd have picked gets more established. It's not a guarantee by any means, but acting like a 22yo player is a set in stone 3rd liner at that age is unreal to me.

 

[montreal]

I think your are going to offend some here with your relentless resort to logic.

in my 20+ years on this site, I've had people threaten my life by showing they found out where I lived, I had a stalker because I kept saying how terrible Lefebvre was and he didn't like it. I've been called a Nazi and a French lover or hater depending on which side the poster was on that I gave them a warning (all this was back in the day, very different HF and mod stuff has really changed for the better in terms of not having to get into it with posters like that. As on this board it was if you warned the poster and he was say bashing French players, then I was just a French loving player and vise versa.

 

[Belial]

14 goals is literally a dime a dozen. You don't trade a first round pick for 14 goals.

Newhook might improve, but his trajectory thus far suggests he probably won't develop into a top 6 forward.

We'd have been better off packaging those picks to move up 10 spots and gone younger, better, and cheaper.

Those late first-round picks don't even make the league usually!

You talk like we traded two guaranteed 50+ points prospects for a 30 points third liner!

 

[montreal]

14 goals is literally a dime a dozen. You don't trade a first round pick for 14 goals.

Newhook might improve, but his trajectory thus far suggests he probably won't develop into a top 6 forward.

We'd have been better off packaging those picks to move up 10 spots and gone younger, better, and cheaper.

It's about context, so to me it's beyond silly to call an NHL player a bust for scoring 14 goals, like what in the actual f***. I can see calling David Fischer a bust, he never played in the NHL, but Newhook showing at a young age he can score goals in the NHL is far from a bust. That's nuts.

You don't pay 31+37 for 14 goals, clearly Hughes is betting on said prospect improving, it's a gamble.

I don't like it, I wanted to burn this shit to the ground and do what the Yotes are doing, although with their rink situation I don't envy that organization. So I was not on board with trading the 13th, 31st, 37th and 66th picks going into the draft. So far it's looking really good for Dach, we'll see on Newhook.

 

[Takeru]

I wouldn't read anything into his draft class yet since it's early still.

Based off what they paid, I think it's easy to see they overpaid a little for now but 12 months from now that could look very different.

The value from the chart is based off the draft so only in hindsight would you be able to say that this was or wasn't the draft to move up or down. The thinking for the Habs is more does this speed things up and will they be in a position to make use of it, to continue to build a contender or not. It's really hard for fans to see where we are at in terms of the stages of the rebuild.

For Hughes he just better be right or he is just setting back the rebuild. Slaf, Reinbacher, Dach, Newhook, Mesar, these are what our 1st round picks have yielded lately, so he needs to hit on several of them if we are to have even a slight hope of being a contender.

My point with that statement is more to put in perspective that he tracks decently compared to his peers while some people think it's 100% confirmed he topped out as a 3rd liner in his D+4. As you've aptly stated, it's early still which is the gamble here.

Again, I think it's comparing apples and oranges, you can't determine an overpayment this way.
Possibly in hindsight there will be one or more from the say 13-19 range that will ultimately have a better carrer than Newhook. But it's impossible to say the Habs would have 100% been able to make that trade AND select the right player. That's where the balancing out comes on the so-called overpayment imo.

Agreed, it's heading the team in another direction, trying to get a guy that matches more closely the rest of the cores age group. I don't see that as a rebuild jeopardizing move, as the odds of either being able to trade up with those picks or drafting a more impactful player were never that high to me.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

in my 20+ years on this site, I've had people threaten my life by showing they found out where I lived, I had a stalker because I kept saying how terrible Lefebvre was and he didn't like it. I've been called a Nazi and a French lover or hater depending on which side the poster was on that I gave them a warning (all this was back in the day, very different HF and mod stuff has really changed for the better in terms of not having to get into it with posters like that. As on this board it was if you warned the poster and he was say bashing French players, then I was just a French loving player and vise versa.

I too have been on this site for 20+ years and I have been amused by the inconsistency of the arguments advanced here. A segment of posters here complain of the timidity of Hughes in drafting Reinbacher over Michkov, the presumptive BPA at that point in the draft, while vilifying Hughes for his aggressive (and decidedly risky) acquisition of Newhook. In law, we call that blowing and sucking at the same time. A talent , if not a virtue, of some posters here.

 

[Takeru]

When evaluating Newhook's trade value in 2023 his draft position in 2019 is irrelevant, as is his performance relative to his draft peers.

His value is determined by his performance relative to the NHL as a whole and his performance relative to the potential of the 2023 class.

Newhook's value isn't increased because kakko has been terrible for example.

As replied to montreal, it's a way to add context, the 2019 class development is far from said an done.

I guess we just have different preferences, though I would have seen roughly equal value in trading up for someone of the 2023 class for what it's worth.

As Jaynki mentioned a few posts back, it boils down to essentially common assets for common player with added hope that said player still has another gear or two left.
All in all though, nothing worth lamenting about an hypothetical overpayment but maybe that's just me.

Anyway, moving on, feel like I've said my piece on the matter.

 

[CHwest]

14 goals is literally a dime a dozen. You don't trade a first round pick for 14 goals.

Newhook might improve, but his trajectory thus far suggests he probably won't develop into a top 6 forward.

We'd have been better off packaging those picks to move up 10 spots and gone younger, better, and cheaper.

You are making a terrible assumption that a trade up was possible. Maybe they tried, who knows.

 

[Belial]

You are making a terrible assumption that a trade up was possible. Maybe they tried, who knows.

Not to mention that zero trades occurred during the first round. Doesn't seem like teams were very eager to trade picks...

 

[montreal]

My point with that statement is more to put in perspective that he tracks decently compared to his peers while some people think it's 100% confirmed he topped out as a 3rd liner in his D+4. As you've aptly stated, it's early still which is the gamble here.

Again, I think it's comparing apples and oranges, you can't determine an overpayment this way.
Possibly in hindsight there will be one or more from the say 13-19 range that will ultimately have a better carrer than Newhook. But it's impossible to say the Habs would have 100% been able to make that trade AND select the right player. That's where the balancing out comes on the so-called overpayment imo.

Agreed, it's heading the team in another direction, trying to get a guy that matches more closely the rest of the cores age group. I don't see that as a rebuild jeopardizing move, as the odds of either being able to trade up with those picks or drafting a more impactful player were never that high to me.

You 100% can because you have to, since the trade is done at the draft.

So you need to look at all the factors, who you think might be on board still, what this player will bring to your team, etc... and then gamble that you got the right player, just as you would if you made the pick, at the end of the day you need to be right or let's say when you miss on 1st round picks you make life that much harder on yourself.

As for the rebuild, if Newhook ends up a 3rd liner that put up around 30 pts and the players they would have picked had they not traded the picks go on and have a great NHL career it's likely going to set back the rebuild as you need him to be more then he's shown so far. Granted there's a lot of moving parts that need to go right in order for the rebuild to end up a success, but trading 13th, 31st, 37th, 66th in 12 months is a big risk for a team that's so bad the past several years now.

What you or I think of said moves means nothing of course, hence why to me I see it as going into the draft as a bit of an overpay. Now the draft unfolded in a way that I thought had we not traded the picks we could have had someone really good but it didn't turn out the way I thought so we would have had to trade up from 31st in order to get one of the forwards I really wanted.

I just would feel a lot better about the Habs future if they had Cooley, Kulich, Nazar, Leonard in the system vs Slaf, Dach, Reinbacher, Newhook, Mesar. But who knows in the end what would be better for us. Having a Nazar Cooley Leonard line would be a shit ton of fun to see.

 

[salbutera]

Except for the Fischer experiment, Habs had more success selecting and developping their drafted D than forwards.

Fischer was the ultimate “draft for need” pick - Gainey desperately wanted a RDman inserted in the prospect pool who could accelerate through the system.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

You are making a terrible assumption that a trade up was possible. Maybe they tried, who knows.

It's possible it wasn't on the table, but regardless, I think keeping the picks would have been better than Newhook. I just don't think he's worth it.

He won't be able to play center here, so we're moving him to the wing, where we're already grossly undersized.

Irrespective of his trade value, I just don't think he's a good fit on this team.

 

[Nevins]

When will we ever get an elite forward? It's probably not happening in the next decade.

Bingo

 

[Gillings]

none of us know how he end result, draft day is a c+ though

 

[Belial]

It's possible it wasn't on the table, but regardless, I think keeping the picks would have been better than Newhook. I just don't think he's worth it.

He won't be able to play center here, so we're moving him to the wing, where we're already grossly undersized.

Irrespective of his trade value, I just don't think he's a good fit on this team.

Newhook is average size, he's not small.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Newhook is average size, he's not small.

Average size NHL forward is 6'1 197 pounds.

Newhook is 5'10 190.

He's not a midget by any means but he's definitely below average size.

 

[Belial]

Average size NHL forward is 6'1 197 pounds.

Newhook is 5'10 190.

He's not a midget by any means but he's definitely below average size.

The guy is stocky and he likes to go to the net, his size will not be a problem.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

The guy is stocky and he likes to go to the net, his size will not be a problem.

On it's own, no, but most of our other skill guys range from tiny to average.

 

[Belial]

On it's own, no, but most of our other skill guys range from tiny to average.

You have Dach, Monahan, Slafkovsky, and Anderson in your top 9... Should be enough size to compensate...

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I don't get the angst either, we got an NHL player with some upside. Most of those late 1st and 2nd picks don't work out, but who can predict.

I suspect some of the angst is based more on who or what we could presumably have acquired with the 31 and 37 picks in a deep draft instead of Newhook. I think the return was reasonable and, as several posters have noted, in this overhyped draft class there was little willingness for teams to deal their choices. So moving up was probably not an option unless you were prepared to pay a grossly inflationary price.