HF Habs: What are your initial impressions of the Habs 2023 Draft class?

[Twisted Sinister]

F Minus Minus.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

F Minus Minus.

Nothing like a reasoned response.

For this writer, taking into account the Newhook acquisition, it was a good draft that advanced the competitive fortunes of the team.

While the Reinbacher selection was an excellent pick at 5 OA, I think this draft will be regarded in the future as the goalie draft. I think Montreal drafted two future strong prospects in Fowler and Miller. I think they both look to be future NHLers. The player that most intrigues me is Luke Mittelstadt. He showed great mobility and poise at the development camp and looks like another, at least Harris-level, NHL defenceman.

A certain top 2 defenceman, two potential goalies and a highly mobile, intelligent defenceman: not a bad draft at all. Consensus be damned.

 

[CHwest]

Nothing like a reasoned response.

For this writer, taking into account the Newhook acquisition, it was a good draft that advanced the competitive fortunes of the team.

While the Reinbacher selection was an excellent pick at 5 OA, I think this draft will be regarded in the future as the goalie draft. I think Montreal drafted two future strong prospects in Fowler and Miller. I think they both look to be future NHLers. The player that most intrigues me is Luke Mittelstadt. He showed great mobility and poise at the development camp and looks like another, at least Harris-level, NHL defenceman.

A certain top 2 defenceman, two potential goalies and a highly mobile, intelligent defenceman: not a bad draft at all. Consensus be damned.

Where do you see Reinbacher's ceiling?

 

[BaseballCoach]

Where do you see Reinbacher's ceiling?

Very high.

 

[Whitesnake]

since i never saw most of these players , i won’t make an evaluation for that draft.

But what i see here is a lot of contradictions and unrealistic expectations. How many times i’ve read that Habs need an elite forward to score more goals, but they complain that we draft for the needs instead of the bpa.

History shows that at top 5, chances percentage is much more higher to find an elite scoring forward than a no1 D-man. Just by going with BPA.

The nature of the beast of d-men and goalies said so. Development is way more in the air for them. Than forwards. Since it's much more a projection for those 2 positions, chances are you will find gems later on.

 

[ML16]

Always perilous to grade one’s first impression of a draft, but I guess I’ll go with an overall B.

#5 - Reinbacher - Obviously fills a dire organizational need; projects like the ideal candidate to play alongside Hutson while Guhle anchors the other top-4 pairing with Barron/Mailloux. So A- to begin with, considering that Arizona went for a D at #6, thus preventing the Habs from trading down. But I downgrade it to B+ considering there were better moves available: my personal favorite? Askarov + #15 (Wood/ASP).

#69 - Fowler - The Habs’ best value pick of the draft I think, so A. A great consolation price considering I expected the Habs not to be able to get a G prospect of that caliber after trading #37.

#101 - F. Xhekaj - At best, a gritty fourth line player, so I can’t give out much more than a C grade.

Intriguing picks (C+) : Konyushkov; Ericksson ; Mittelstadt

Whatever picks (C) : Miller; Harris; Volohkin

#31/#37 traded for Newhook - Considering the Fowler pick somewhat redeemed the slight overpayment of adding #37 instead of a lesser quality asset in the Newhook deal, I’d say B+. Since I would have went with a goalie with one of the pick anyways, quite confident gambling on Newhook will generate better results that any forwards still available at that range.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Nothing like a reasoned response.

For this writer, taking into account the Newhook acquisition, it was a good draft that advanced the competitive fortunes of the team.

While the Reinbacher selection was an excellent pick at 5 OA, I think this draft will be regarded in the future as the goalie draft. I think Montreal drafted two future strong prospects in Fowler and Miller. I think they both look to be future NHLers. The player that most intrigues me is Luke Mittelstadt. He showed great mobility and poise at the development camp and looks like another, at least Harris-level, NHL defenceman.

A certain top 2 defenceman, two potential goalies and a highly mobile, intelligent defenceman: not a bad draft at all. Consensus be damned.

After crunching the numbers and meticulously calculating potential multifaceted variables and probabilities for every draft pick, I came up with a very well-well reasoned F Minus Minus

It was a difficult process, but someone's gotta do it dammit.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Nothing like a reasoned response.

For this writer, taking into account the Newhook acquisition, it was a good draft that advanced the competitive fortunes of the team.

While the Reinbacher selection was an excellent pick at 5 OA, I think this draft will be regarded in the future as the goalie draft. I think Montreal drafted two future strong prospects in Fowler and Miller. I think they both look to be future NHLers. The player that most intrigues me is Luke Mittelstadt. He showed great mobility and poise at the development camp and looks like another, at least Harris-level, NHL defenceman.

A certain top 2 defenceman, two potential goalies and a highly mobile, intelligent defenceman: not a bad draft at all. Consensus be damned.

I think that way too. There is always drama every year, and Radenbacher seems like a great RD cornerstone. Meanwhile, I believe that Newhook will justify the gamble in a comparable manner to Dach. Not the physical juggernaut that Dach represents, but our paciest forward with skill who will contribute either as a top-6 winger or valuable 2/3C. And as you mentioned, a few very promising goalies.

Of course, a reach like Xhekaj limits my grade to a B.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Where do you see Reinbacher's ceiling?

When I look at any player I use a simple eye-test: does the player look like a player? Maybe because of my position which requires me to attend countless try-outs over the years, and the limited time/opportunity I have to assess a multitude of players, I have to employ this somewhat simple eye test. Some players literally jump off the ice in their tryouts displaying: skating, strength, skill, game sense and confidence. Others, less so. Is it a fail proof system? Obviously not. But in Reinbacher’s case, he passes my eye-test. He has size, skill, mobility, vision and possess a high compete level. Those that see or predict elite skating ability are being at best optimistic, if not fanciful. Elite skating, great skating, are terms thrown around here like candy. There are very few elite skaters in the NHL . Does Montreal even have one? Newhook now? In my opinion, Reinbacher is a strong skater. But with all his other skills, strong skating should be enough for him to be a top pairing defenceman in the NHL and a mainstay on the Montreal defense who can play and excel in all situations for the next decade or more. When Montreal once again becomes competitive, Reinbacher and his fellow young defencemen will be the driving reason for this long awaited renaissance.

 

[BaseballCoach]

When I look at any player I use a simple eye-test: does the player look like a player? Maybe because of my position which requires me to attend countless try-outs over the years, and the limited time/opportunity I have to assess a multitude of players, I have to employ this somewhat simple eye test. Some players literally jump off the ice in their tryouts displaying: skating, strength, skill, game sense and confidence. Others, less so. Is it a fail proof system? Obviously not. But in Reinbacher’s case, he passes my eye-test. He has size, skill, mobility, vision and possess a high compete level. Those that see or predict elite skating ability are being at best optimistic, if not fanciful. Elite skating, great skating, are terms thrown around here like candy. There are very few elite skaters in the NHL . Does Montreal even have one? Newhook now? In my opinion, Reinbacher is a strong skater. But with all his other skills, strong skating should be enough for him to be a top pairing defenceman in the NHL and a mainstay on the Montreal defense who can play and excel in all situations for the next decade or more. When Montreal once again becomes competitive, Reinbacher and his fellow young defencemen will be the driving reason for this long awaited renaissance.

Yes, Matheson.

 

[dcyhabs]

When I look at any player I use a simple eye-test: does the player look like a player? Maybe because of my position which requires me to attend countless try-outs over the years, and the limited time/opportunity I have to assess a multitude of players, I have to employ this somewhat simple eye test. Some players literally jump off the ice in their tryouts displaying: skating, strength, skill, game sense and confidence. Others, less so. Is it a fail proof system? Obviously not. But in Reinbacher’s case, he passes my eye-test. He has size, skill, mobility, vision and possess a high compete level. Those that see or predict elite skating ability are being at best optimistic, if not fanciful. Elite skating, great skating, are terms thrown around here like candy. There are very few elite skaters in the NHL . Does Montreal even have one? Newhook now? In my opinion, Reinbacher is a strong skater. But with all his other skills, strong skating should be enough for him to be a top pairing defenceman in the NHL and a mainstay on the Montreal defense who can play and excel in all situations for the next decade or more. When Montreal once again becomes competitive, Reinbacher and his fellow young defencemen will be the driving reason for this long awaited renaissance.

I don't know enough to judge the draft, but my main impression is that it was way less of a TSN/RDS draft than some of MB's drafts. There were a number of drafts where the habs took some guy, like Fucale, who generally wasn't thought to be very good but got lots of play from the talking heads. Of course there was also the other extreme of taking guys like McCarron on the negative side and Romanov on the positive. Lots of off the board big guy picks over the last decades, too, and no successes I can think of. Lots of the worst drafts were seen as wins in the media, so it may not be a bad thing that the habs were generally labelled draft losers this year.

There are a number of stat analysts who think Reinbacher is going to be a #1 D. If it works out, great. We'll see if that extends to the playoffs, though, a lot of advanced stat watching goes with where the data is, and that's in the regular season. He may not be nasty enough.

I'm a little concerned with taking a D first, just because points provide more info for forwards in top picks, but if they are correct in their analysis then great. The habs have done better identifying good D over the years than finding forwards so we'll have to hope that continues.

The habs seem to be going for friends and family. Mesar/Slaf, the whole Pitlick family, 2 Xhekaj's... Other than the Sutters and Sedins I don't remember too many families all doing well, but at least it shows an interest in keeping players happy that has been really missing in Montreal for a few decades. The consistent years of grinding unpleasant coaches was very, very due to end. They had a bunch of opportunities to exploit the bounce you get when you bring in a player's coach after a tough guy, and it was a bit of a waste to use that bounce when they were tanking. I suppose it leaves room to bring in a structure/dinosaur guy if MSL falters and then go back to a player's coach again (MSL takes a sabbatical and comes back for a cup run?).

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Konyushkov is my favorite pick because nobody has ever heard of him so it must mean someone in the org made a really good case for him.

He led his KHL team in ice time, still only 20, good offense, RHD, he could be very good

 

[Takeru]

For the life of me, I don't get people saying we "overpaid" for Newhook.
We made a gamble, sure, but it's the same as Dach, which people were clamoring for Dach 2.0 pre-draft.

Then you factor in that Newhook is a top 10 pts producer from his draft class, right behind a certain CC, with roughly the same amount of NHL games Dach had we we traded for him. Progression isn't necessarily linear and each player follow his own curve.

I get that some would have prefered a different gamble with the picks, but an overpayment, it is not.

 

[ZUKI]

History shows that at top 5, chances percentage is much more higher to find an elite scoring forward than a no1 D-man. Just by going with BPA.

The nature of the beast of d-men and goalies said so. Development is way more in the air for them. Than forwards. Since it's much more a projection for those 2 positions, chances are you will find gems later on.

Who’s that History guy ? i don’t know who he is . Is he a reliable source?

 

[armChairScout]

All we had to do is lose a few more games last year to get top 2

It wasn’t hard to do

I don’t want to be in a perpetual re build again like the last 10 years

They don’t care. They just want to sell their beer

 

[CHwest]

For the life of me, I don't get people saying we "overpaid" for Newhook.
We made a gamble, sure, but it's the same as Dach, which people were clamoring for Dach 2.0 pre-draft.

Then you factor in that Newhook is a top 10 pts producer from his draft class, right behind a certain CC, with roughly the same amount of NHL games Dach had we we traded for him. Progression isn't necessarily linear and each player follow his own curve.

I get that some would have prefered a different gamble with the picks, but an overpayment, it is not.

I don't get the angst either, we got an NHL player with some upside. Most of those late 1st and 2nd picks don't work out, but who can predict.

 

[Takeru]

I don't get the angst either, we got an NHL player with some upside. Most of those late 1st and 2nd picks don't work out, but who can predict.

Pretty much. I think there's both an overvaluation of these picks and a downplay of Newhook's value, which taken to the extreme sometimes feels like we guaranteed passed on the next Jason Robertson for a 3rd liner.

I mean sure, Newhook hasn't posted multiple 50+pts seasons (yet), but if he had, we wouldn't have gotten him for 31st+37th. And while great players can be had at these spots, the odds of there being one AND us nailing the pick aren't very likely.

 

[Jaynki]

For the life of me, I don't get people saying we "overpaid" for Newhook.
We made a gamble, sure, but it's the same as Dach, which people were clamoring for Dach 2.0 pre-draft.

Then you factor in that Newhook is a top 10 pts producer from his draft class, right behind a certain CC, with roughly the same amount of NHL games Dach had we we traded for him. Progression isn't necessarily linear and each player follow his own curve.

I get that some would have prefered a different gamble with the picks, but an overpayment, it is not.

You dont overpay when ditching 2nd RD picks.

Every single team generates a 32OV pick every year, even the cup winner.

These are the most common traded assets. They are the pieces every teams throws at TDL for depth rentals. Teams use it to move 4-5 spots in the draft. A f***ing 2nd rounder has the biggest platitude/value ratio.

I would argue that "premium" assets starts at ~16OV. Assets that half the league won't generate in a given year.

The pick we gave are about ~30% chance to pick a guy who will play 100 NHL games. Much less for a top of the line-up player.

I feel like we traded common assets for a common player. Don't think there is much steal, gamble, overpayment or whatever here.

People are attached to what a marginal, B prospect can become. Kidney, Thrower, Collberg, Mesar, Kapanen, Tuch, De La Rose, Fucale, Brook, Ikonen, Ylonen, Olofsson.

They were all at some point pictured as "future player". People are attached to that "potential" so they are angry, but really, how much of these B prospect do we need more?

 

[montreal]

The player that most intrigues me is Luke Mittelstadt. He showed great mobility and poise at the development camp and looks like another, at least Harris-level, NHL defenceman.

He's got a long ways to go to be close to Harris though, who was a top pairing D a couple months after turning 18. You don't see that too often in the NCAA. Mittelstadt was on the best team in the NCAA this year, it's a solid gamble and I'm surprised he didn't go higher.

Where do you see Reinbacher's ceiling?

at this point I wouldn't want to say, it's way way too soon but with the offense I assume 2nd pairing D.

For the life of me, I don't get people saying we "overpaid" for Newhook.

The reason for saying they overpaid is just based off math. But trade value for draft picks isn't easy, the chart I use shows we overpaid a little for Newhook,

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

the chart is on page 7, it shows the value of 31+37 to be worth say between 13th and 15th OA. So the question would be are the Habs better off with Newhook or one of Oliver Moore, Matthew Wood, etc..

You gave up future assets for Newhook so you need to be right or it can set back the rebuild. Or it can be a great move as Dach is shaping up to be so maybe they struck gold here, we'll see.

 

[montreal]

Just to add to that, the Dach trade they gave up 13+66 which works out to the value of around the 7th or 8th OA pick.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

For the life of me, I don't get people saying we "overpaid" for Newhook.
We made a gamble, sure, but it's the same as Dach, which people were clamoring for Dach 2.0 pre-draft.

Then you factor in that Newhook is a top 10 pts producer from his draft class, right behind a certain CC, with roughly the same amount of NHL games Dach had we we traded for him. Progression isn't necessarily linear and each player follow his own curve.

I get that some would have prefered a different gamble with the picks, but an overpayment, it is not.

I'm not sure Newhook was even worth the second round pick, nevermind the first.

The guy needs to prove he isn't a bust because all indications suggest he is.

At 22 you would hope he'd be firmly established in the top 6, and because he hasn't done that you are trading for him with the very real possibility that he's a 3rd line player.

Here's another way of looking at it. Do you think the Blackhawks or Rangers would trade Moore or Perreault straight up for Newhook? I sure don't.

I realize the 31 pick isn't as high as 19, but we also added the 37 pick and that's pretty tough to swallow given he's entering his D+5 and still hasn't shown he can play on the top two lines yet.

This trade reminds me a lot of the Dvorak trade, where we just overpaid based on need.

 

[montreal]

The guy needs to prove he isn't a bust because all indications suggest he is.

how is he indicating he's a bust so far?

 

[Fish on The Sand]

how is he indicating he's a bust so far?

Because he's entering his 5th season post draft and hasn't done jack shit in the NHL.

It would be similar to trading a first and second round pick for someone like Marty Reasoner after the 99/00 season.

 

[Takeru]

The reason for saying they overpaid is just based off math. But trade value for draft picks isn't easy, the chart I use shows we overpaid a little for Newhook,

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

the chart is on page 7, it shows the value of 31+37 to be worth say between 13th and 15th OA. So the question would be are the Habs better off with Newhook or one of Oliver Moore, Matthew Wood, etc..

You gave up future assets for Newhook so you need to be right or it can set back the rebuild. Or it can be a great move as Dach is shaping up to be so maybe they struck gold here, we'll see.

Interesting information. However, I wouldn't say it demonstrates an overpayment as there are tons of caveats.
Were those teams up for trading down? Would we have indeed been better off with having to develop one of these guys for 3-4 years and necessarily get a better producer than where Newhook will be at by then?

Again, how do people evaluate the value across different draft classes? Feel like I'm beating a dead horse but so far, 4 years removed from his draft, Newhook tracks as the 9th point producer from his class, so essentially punching "above" his draft position. Doesn't mean he'll end up staying at that rank when all is said and done or maybe 2019 is total shite compared to 2023, but that's a lot of variables to declare confidently we overpaid in any way in this trade.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

All we had to do is lose a few more games last year to get top 2

It wasn’t hard to do

I don’t want to be in a perpetual re build again like the last 10 years

They don’t care. They just want to sell their beer

I would suggest that a winning team would sell more beer and merchandise.