Value of: What 1st round pick would picks 41+42+43 get back ?

[TageGod]

Those 3 seconds will get you established player value more than draft value. For one, you can have Olofsson for a second.

 

[Mersss]

Those 3 seconds will get you established player value more than draft value. For one, you can have Olofsson for a second.

Not sure a abysmal 5v5 player who's only strength is being a PP specialist at 5m / year is what the Wings are looking for tho.

 

[StephenPeat]

So you say a 1st for that package is "hilarious" and then you say "probably 28th".... which is a 1st.

I wonder if I was being serious?

 

[lomiller1]

Teams with 3 picks in 2nd round:
2010: EDM 31-46-48 2 busts and TPitlick, Fla 33-36-50 3 busts Chi 4 picks: 35-54-58-60 Holl and 3 busts
2011: STL 32-41-46 Jaskin, Edmundsen and bust, Dal 35-48-55 3 busts
2012: Dal 43-54-61 Shore and 2 busts
2014: Buf 31-44-49 3 busts
2015 Bos 37-45-52 Carlo, Lauzon and bust
2016: TB 37-45-58 Hajek, Katchouk, Raddysh (best job), Phi 36-48-52 Hart Allison and bust, Chi 39-45-50 DeBrincat and 2 busts

34 picks, 21 busts 62 %
3-4 above average player 10%
not great…

That's 11 drafts, compare that to 20OA picks from 2008 - 2018 (also 11 drafts)
It's not entirely clear which group of players you'd like to have, but I'm leaning towards the players from the multiple second round picks group over the 20OA group.


2008 Michael Del Zotto
2009 Jacob Josefson
2010 Beau Bennett
2011 Connor Murphy
2012 Scott Laughton
2013 Anthony Mantha
2014 Nick Schmaltz
2015 Joel Eriksson Ek
2016 Dennis Cholowski
2017 Robert Thomas
2018 Rasmus Kupari

 

[Daves a mess]

Rangers might consider.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

I'd trade the Flyers #22 depending on if a player they love is on the board.

 

[SI90]

Depends on teams boards. And if you think the draft is deep.

Those are 3 really good high 2nd round picks. If I were a GM I wouldn’t be scared to trade a mid/late(20th) overall it I felt there would be 3 guys I had really high that I liked and thought they’d be there and I really needed to bulk up my system.

It also depends on who’s available with the 1st. If there’s one guy you’re in love with and you feel is the real deal then you don’t make the trade. You take the one guy you love.

Me, in most cases I would probably have those 3 picks if I was picking outside the top15 in most drafts.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

detroit fan wondering about yzermans draft day options

28-30

 

[TageGod]

Not sure a abysmal 5v5 player who's only strength is being a PP specialist at 5m / year is what the Wings are looking for tho.

He isn't really the point. 28 goals for a second is good. Imagine two.

 

[Habs Halifax]

According to the draft values below... it would get the 18th pick. But it don't work out that way mostly. These types of trades are usually circumstantial. My guess is somewhere from 20-30 range. It really depends on who you are trading with and how they see the mid to late 1st round in talent and how that compares to who might be on the board at 41-43 range.

 

[FiveTacos]

The draft value charts make more sense in the NFL since teams have more positions to fill.

And also because while there's year to year variation in particular positional value in the NFL, the overall talent from draft to draft is fairly consistent due to sheer numbers of players across positions; maybe there's not a lot of great DBs one year, but it's unusually strong at OL or something, and the next year it'll be LB or WR or something. Elite talent varies in depth each year, and regardless still tends to get picked clean at the top regardless of position. But then when you're talking about the mid 1st onwards, year to year variation is not huge. A typical late 1st to early 2nd rounder is roughly comparable in talent across the vast majority of NFL drafts.

In hockey that's not the case, as there are strong years where an early 2nd rounder is more talented than a mid or even high 1st in a weak year. It makes it really hard to have a "value chart," of any use beyond a single year. The elite tier this year is unusual in that it's 5 guys (some years it's one or none), the next tier might be what, another 7 or so? And then you get into the more "normal" 1st rounders which seems unusually deep. The gap in talent between 15th and 50th this year might not be all that huge if the depth is that good, and there's really no sense trading multiples to move up unless you're moving up a tier, which seems unlikely here.

 

[FlyguyOX]

The combined value of those picks is equal to a player you'd draft at about 8

 

[Detroit Knights]

I would amend the OG post to be bostons 2024 1st + two of the 2nds in 2023.

Pretty sure that significantly raises our options. I would assume Vancouver's 11OA + Myers cap dump would be an initial conversation.

 

[Mersss]

He isn't really the point. 28 goals for a second is good. Imagine two.

25% of his goals came from the PP.
30% of his pointa came on the PP
-23
If that's not a PP specialist...

Olofsson is nothing more than a new Michael.Ryder. good shot, doesn't provide anything else.

 

[Detroit Knights]

There are a couple different ways people estimate the cost to trade up in the draft.


Models that look at past trades suggest the 41, 42 and 43 will get you a pick in the late teens.

NHL draft: What does it cost to trade up?

A lot of work has been done on estimating the value of a draft pick. (For example, link, link, and link to links.) On Wednesday someone used this one (based on this one based on this one — seriously…

www.broadstreethockey.com

Models that look at how players taken in that draft position perform say 41, 42, 43 have about the same value as the #10 pick.

By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick

The NHL Draft isn’t nearly as random as the NFL’s, but there are inefficiencies that can be exposed and an opportunity to glean value.

theathletic.com

I would doubt in this years draft, we could get the #10, but I could see the 15th pick. or something similar.

 

[TageGod]

25% of his goals came from the PP.
30% of his pointa came on the PP
-23
If that's not a PP specialist...

Olofsson is nothing more than a new Michael.Ryder. good shot, doesn't provide anything else.

Olofsson is not the point. I would trade him off sabres for a second. But idk what you expect from one second which is why I said 2-3 will get you good player(s)

 

[Dog]

That's three picks in a row might be smarter just to draft only if a certain player be available that they can swing a deal. It won't get you in the top 5 but maybe 8-13 range with possibly something else going back. Let's say they trade 41+42+43 and get back 12th overall if it's later pick maybe get back 3rd or 4th or prospect team rather move. Depends on teams eagerness at the draft to move assets. Think some might be interested if another takes contract they want gone as well. Teams like the Coyotes, Redwings, Ducks, and Blackhawks seem like they could maximize their cap space in bringing in more 1st rounders.

 

[pockets]

If I'm C-Mac / J-Sak I'd take that deal for #27 even though the Avs have been notoriously awful at drafting outside of the 1st round since they picked RoR in the 2nd and Barrie in the 3rd in 2009.

 

[Mersss]

Olofsson is not the point. I would trade him off sabres for a second. But idk what you expect from one second which is why I said 2-3 will get you good player(s)

And I am telling you that obviously you would because Oloffson doesn't hold that much value.

 

[abo9]

That's three picks in a row might be smarter just to draft only if a certain player be available that they can swing a deal. It won't get you in the top 5 but maybe 8-13 range with possibly something else going back. Let's say they trade 41+42+43 and get back 12th overall if it's later pick maybe get back 3rd or 4th or prospect team rather move. Depends on teams eagerness at the draft to move assets. Think some might be interested if another takes contract they want gone as well.

Yeah it obviously depends on the draft strength and depth, but I also think that the value of those 3 picks would tend to be quite high.

Like, after the top 5, until pick 30, what's your hit rate on stars, very good, good players?
You get one dart

What's the hit rate in the 30-50 range?
You get 3 darts

But, for a GM, it might also be tricky to trade a, for example, 10th OA pick for such a package: If the 10th OA comes in the NHL in his 2nd year after draft, they could be on the hot seat even if the 2nd rounders are doing great and become impactful NHLers in d+3 or d+4

 

[Dog]

Yeah it obviously depends on the draft strength and depth, but I also think that the value of those 3 picks would tend to be quite high.

Like, after the top 5, until pick 30, what's your hit rate on stars, very good, good players?
You get one dart

What's the hit rate in the 30-50 range?
You get 3 darts

But, for a GM, it might also be tricky to trade a, for example, 10th OA pick for such a package: If the 10th OA comes in the NHL in his 2nd year after draft, they could be on the hot seat even if the 2nd rounders are doing great and become impactful NHLers in d+3 or d+4

Yep, all depends but every draft we usually see more than one trade. So I would expect it could be exiting but majority of the trades will be minor deals but might get some shocker trades. That's why I pay attention in draft because its like spin the wheel deals it seems at times that make it exciting. Looking forward to it and hope it will be some trades in 1st round. I think top 10 probably won't be dealt but who knows.

 

[MardyBum]

25% of his goals came from the PP.
30% of his pointa came on the PP
-23
If that's not a PP specialist...

Olofsson is nothing more than a new Michael.Ryder. good shot, doesn't provide anything else.

30% of the points total is a PP specialist??

 

[Guffman]

As a Jets fan, I would give up the 18OA for those three picks.

 

[Dog]

As a Jets fan, I would give up the 18OA for those three picks.

At 18th overall that be good deal for the Jets.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I wouldn't do that with the Kraken pick (20) this draft. In most other drafts, I would consider it and think it is fair value. However, in this draft, I feel we can get a really good pick at 20 and would only consider it for a pick in the mid to late 20s.