Value of: What 1st round pick would picks 41+42+43 get back ?

[TheBeard]

I mean yes of course it is too early to truly know but based pick value charts I've seen San Jose did well and in terms of the players selected with their picks after their D1 seasons I would say Bystedt and Geekie seem to be similarly valued prospects and Lund and Havelid are nice prospects too.

I agree it looks good. Last year was the perfect year for a trade like that as there didn’t seem to be a ton of difference between 10 and 50.

 

[bernmeister]

Add The Wild's 2023 4th to 41, 42, + 43
I will add Avs 2023 3rd to NY 323

 

[krutovsdonut]

how about if detroit combines 2 of those those 2nd round picks with 17oa to move up. how far does it move you?

 

[Sebastien]

Looking at models of pick value folks have done previously, that seems to land you around 17-18th OA, but probably more like 19-21 given that the team initiating the trade has to sacrifice a bit of value.

Minnesota wouldn't do thus! There's been multiple reports Minnesota is trying to move up. So it definitely wouldn't. Alot of team's aren't trading their 1st

 

[Grinner]

San Jose traded 11 overall (Geekie) for 27, 34, and 45 last year. Based on that I'd guess it would get you somewhere from 15 to 22 if a team there isn't thrilled by the names available.

Yea but SJ also didn't have a 2nd and I think a 3rd round picks that year

 

[hawksrule]

For fun, how high a 1st for Chicago’s 35,44,51,55?

 

[Kaibur]

There has to be a trade partner. No team has traded three 2nds for a first in the past 5 years.

The only team to trade a 1st for two 2nd round picks in the last 5 years was 2021 NSH acquire pick 27 for pick 40 + 51 (1st for 2nd + 2nd).

Value of: - Draft Pick Value Trading Up and Down

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Blues actively looking for two 2nds for 29th. Could be a win-win

 

[666]

Tempting as a Preds fan to do 23 and get to draft 41,42,43,46 and 47, but we need quality.

Cool idea. I took a quick look through the last 20 years of drafts and there were a few very good players selected in the 41-47 range but there were also quite a few years with just duds. I'd say you have a 50 / 50 chance of getting a pretty good player in that range.

 

[lomiller1]

There are a couple different ways people estimate the cost to trade up in the draft.


Models that look at past trades suggest the 41, 42 and 43 will get you a pick in the late teens.

NHL draft: What does it cost to trade up?

A lot of work has been done on estimating the value of a draft pick. (For example, link, link, and link to links.) On Wednesday someone used this one (based on this one based on this one — seriously…

www.broadstreethockey.com

Models that look at how players taken in that draft position perform say 41, 42, 43 have about the same value as the #10 pick.

By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick

The NHL Draft isn’t nearly as random as the NFL’s, but there are inefficiencies that can be exposed and an opportunity to glean value.

theathletic.com

 

[Soundgarden]

Cool idea. I took a quick look through the last 20 years of drafts and there were a few very good players selected in the 41-47 range but there were also quite a few years with just duds. I'd say you have a 50 / 50 chance of getting a pretty good player in that range.

If the draft is as good as some are hyping it up to be we could get a few good players.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Kinda funny to me that nobody has offered players.

Even in a mix.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

I’d probably do the 24th for those picks. Having the 41,42,43,46 and 47 would be a fun 2nd round

 

[ponder719]

I'd trade #22 for them, in Brière's shoes.

 

[Gnashville]

Tempting as a Preds fan to do 23 and get to draft 41,42,43,46 and 47, but we need quality.

Tempting? You do this in a heartbeat then flip 2 of them to move back up into the 1st round. Basically fall from 24th down to 29th ish and pick up another 2nd

 

[The Red Line]

Probably about #40.
1st????
Hilarious.

Highest you move up for that is probably 28th Pick if a team with an extremely Late 1st just doesn’t give a shit.

So you say a 1st for that package is "hilarious" and then you say "probably 28th".... which is a 1st.

 

[Gnashville]

how about if detroit combines 2 of those those 2nd round picks with 17oa to move up. how far does it move you?

It would depend on how the board looks at that time and who is left. It could be a top 10 potentially

 

[JRichard]

Teams with 3 picks in 2nd round:
2010: EDM 31-46-48 2 busts and TPitlick, Fla 33-36-50 3 busts Chi 4 picks: 35-54-58-60 Holl and 3 busts
2011: STL 32-41-46 Jaskin, Edmundsen and bust, Dal 35-48-55 3 busts
2012: Dal 43-54-61 Shore and 2 busts
2014: Buf 31-44-49 3 busts
2015 Bos 37-45-52 Carlo, Lauzon and bust
2016: TB 37-45-58 Hajek, Katchouk, Raddysh (best job), Phi 36-48-52 Hart Allison and bust, Chi 39-45-50 DeBrincat and 2 busts

34 picks, 21 busts 62 %
3-4 above average player 10%
not great…

 

[Mersss]

Habs would do 31 + their 3rd rounder for those picks.

4 early 2nds could help is selecting for needs

 

[BleedBlue14]

I'd imagine Armstrong has floated 29 to Detroit for 42 and 43. They seem to have a pretty open line of communication. Only issue that Detroit may face is there are a few teams with 2-3 2nds this year that could potentially be looking to move up and not alot of teams with 1sts that will probably want to move back.

However, this draft is pretty deep.

 

[Beige Van]

Teams with 3 picks in 2nd round:
2010: EDM 31-46-48 2 busts and TPitlick, Fla 33-36-50 3 busts Chi 4 picks: 35-54-58-60 Holl and 3 busts
2011: STL 32-41-46 Jaskin, Edmundsen and bust, Dal 35-48-55 3 busts
2012: Dal 43-54-61 Shore and 2 busts
2014: Buf 31-44-49 3 busts
2015 Bos 37-45-52 Carlo, Lauzon and bust
2016: TB 37-45-58 Hajek, Katchouk, Raddysh (best job), Phi 36-48-52 Hart Allison and bust, Chi 39-45-50 DeBrincat and 2 busts

34 picks, 21 busts 62 %
3-4 above average player 10%
not great…

In 2013, Habs had 3 picks in the 2nd round as well: 34-36-55 (De La Rose, Fucale, Lehkonen). 2 busts and a solid player.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

 

[Double Dion]

Depending on who is available I'd consider pick #16 for those 3 picks.

If one of Benson, Moore, Leonard or Dvorsky are still there I wouldn't do it or any of the top 6.

 

[Brodeur]

The draft value charts make more sense in the NFL since teams have more positions to fill. Trading two of the picks to get back into the late first round sounds more plausible than moving all three picks to get higher. Teams usually aren't going to want to blindly drop 15-20 spots. And it goes without saying, it'd depend on who's still left on the board.

Some examples from past years:

2001: Devils traded #24 to the Panthers for #44 and #48 -- not a great draft year, Devils decided they'd rather have two lotto tickets. Meanwhile the Panthers got Lukas Krajicek who was one of the last hypothetical high upside guys left.

2003: Lightning traded #25 to the Panthers for #34 and #41 -- Some had Anthony Stewart as a top 15 pick that year, so Florida paid a decent bounty to get him.

2006: Red Wings traded #29 to the Coyotes for #41 and #47 -- Coyotes moved up for Chris Summers who I vaguely recall Red Line Report really loving that year.

2007: Capitals traded #28 to the Sharks for #41 and a 2008 2nd -- Sharks moved up for man child Nick Petrecki

2008: Ducks traded #28 to the Coyotes for #35 and #39 -- As I understand it, the Kings were going to take Viktor Tikhonov at #32, so Phoenix leapfrogged them to take him.

2011: Red Wings traded #24 to the Senators for #35 and #48 -- As I understand it, Detroit really wanted Tyler Biggs but Toronto moved up to take him at #22.

2015: Avalanche traded #31 to the Sharks for #39, a 2016 2nd (Colorado's previously acquired) -- Funny side note to the deal was that San Jose and Vancouver had a handshake agreement to send #39 for Kevin Bieksa, but Doug Wilson pivoted to trade up for Jeremy Roy. Wilson then offered their own 2016 2nd instead for Bieksa and Vancouver declined if only because they were annoyed. They then shipped Bieksa to Anaheim for their 2016 2nd even though that likely was going to be a slightly worse pick.

2021: Hurricanes traded #26 to the Predators for #39 and #50 -- Lately Carolina seems to be a team that values the extra pick. And then in this case, their owner has prohibited them from drafting a D in the first round. So they traded the late first for two seconds and took two D.

 

[superdeluxe]

Deep Draft this year, I'd hold onto those picks in the 40s..because isn't picks in the mid 20s and later basically a crap shoot? So you get 3 shots at hitting big, instead of one.