Depends on how much you think sweeping changes are needed?
I'll start with defense and goaltending because I do not think sweeping changes are really needed there:
Trade Murray @ 50% retained for a mid-round pick.
I believe that is more than possible with the goalie options out there right now, and 2.3 mill for him as a 1B is a great deal for only a mid-round pick. I think it is better to just eat it this year than have it drag out over 2 years.
Ilya Samsonov - 3 years x 5 mill.
Similar deal to what Husso got from DET.
Luke Schenn - 1 years x 1.25 mill.
Reasonable price for a guy who will still need to prove he can keep a top 6 spot full time next year, but is a nice bump in pay from what he has been getting recently. He is turning 34 so I wouldn't give him term or much more money than this, and we may need to look at someone better if we do not have a ton of trust in Timmins or someone from the Marlies to potentially take on a full time job next year (I think Rielly, McCabe, Brodie, and Liljegren are locks next year, but there are question marks surrounding Schenn and Giordano).
Nic Meloche & Parker Wotherspoon - 1 year x 775k each
I have liked Meloche since his draft year in 2015. Thought we should have taken him over Dermott. That being said, he hasn't developed perfectly. He is physical and can play a solid, yet simple, two-way game. Much of the same can be applied to Wotherspoon on the left side. I think there is some untapped potential in both and I wouldn't be surprised if both receive some decent interest from a number of teams this offseason, nor would I be surprised if both lock down full time NHL jobs at some point too. Could even be here if there are injuries or if Gio/Schenn struggle down the stretch and Timmins is not capable of taking over.
Filip Kral & Mac Hollowell - 1 year x 775k each
Hollowell is more AHL familiarity and continuity rather than anyone I think will contribute at the NHL level, but he is fine for a lower role in the AHL and I think he would be a fine partner for a guy like Kokkonen to get acclimated to the AHL in what I hope is a permanent stay with the Marlies next year. Kral had some injuries and inconsistency this year, and with the signing of Wotherspoon, he is going to have competition for NHL opportunities next year. That being said, between Meloche, Wotherspoon, Kral, Timmins, and potentially even some call ups for Villeneuve/Niemela, I do not think the Leafs will have any depth concerns next year.
Keith Kinkaid - 1 year x 775k
Kallgren is a Group 6 UFA and he should garner a better shot elsewhere as a #3 with a more clear path to a potential NHL job, especially since he has waiver exemption. He also was really bad last year so I think the Marlies can do better. Enter Kinkaid. He is older and he is nothing special, but he was solid in a similar 3-goalie tandem role with Providence this past year before getting dealt to Colorado to take on a similar role in their system. Ideally he never plays in the NHL, but he is the perfect balance of not being the worst option if Hildeby and Petruzzelli do not look ready for an NHL chance without blocking their development and giving them a chance to be the #3 goalie on our depth chart.
Marshall Rifai & Tommy Miller - AHL deal
I liked how both of them played this past year. Rifai could be in line for an ELC if he has a solid start to next year, but in the meantime should be brought back on the Marlies defense. Similar for Miller on the right side, albeit in more limited opportunities. Given the right side is crowded, Miller may need to start in Newfoundland or as the #9 before likely getting more chances throughout the season as injuries pop up, just like the already-signed Jonny Tychonick.
Rielly - Schenn
McCabe - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Timmins
Samsonov - Woll
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Wotherspoon - Meloche
Kral - Niemela
Rifai - Villeneuve
Kokkonen - Hollowell
Tychonick - Miller (primary ECHL call ups)
Petruzzelli - Hildeby
Kinkaid
Up front is more complicated. It starts with the Core 4 and what happens with them. I will keep it simple.
Ryan O'Reilly - 3 years x 5.5 mill
Would not be surprised if he gets better than this in UFA, and it is certainly a lot for him. He is 32 so this deal would be done at 35, but at the same time, he does give us 3 really good centers down the middle assuming we keep Matthews. I also considered Compher and Haula, but this is the toughest spot for me to fill.
David Kampf - 3 years x 2 mill + Noel Acciari - 2 years x 1.5 mill
Kampf, Lafferty, and Acciari form to be our new shutdown line. There are solid alternatives out there if either of these guys want to chase more money or do not want to sign, so it shouldn't be too hard to figure these spots out.
Konstantin Okulov - 1 year x 950k + Performance Bonuses
I do not like most of the guys out in UFA this year. However Okulov is a major wild card who can really help with our depth offense and to inject some speed and skill back into the lineup without breaking the bank. 3-time Gagarin Cup winner and a huge playoff performer. Could be the next swing that really pays off, and worst case, we have some good guys on the Marlies who could be ready to take that spot if he fails.
Re-sign Nick Abruzzese + Semyon Der-Arguchintsev + Pontus Holmberg - 1 year x 775k each
Couple of solid potential call-ups who should compete for Robertson's spot in camp. Wouldn't be surprised if more than one ends up cracking the lineup full time at some point next year, but for now they find themselves in the Marlies top 6.
Joseph Blandisi, Marc Johnstone, and Graham Slaggert - AHL contracts
Slaggert and Johnstone were solid 4th line depth guys. Not against bringing them back for another year. Blandisi has been an effective and versatile veteran who should continue being a veteran presence for what should be a fairly inexperienced forward group next year.
Knies - Matthews - Marner
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - ROR - Okulov
Lafferty - Kampf - Acciari
McMann
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Abruzzese - Shaw - SDA
Steeves - Holmberg - Ellis
Hirvonen - Blandisi - Voit
Clifford - Slaggert - Johnstone
Ovchinnikov - Kressler - Tverberg