Prospect Info: Welcome to Montréal, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1st round pick, 3OA 2018 - signed ELC)

[Garbageyuk]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

 

[G0bias]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

TSN's rankings are a concensus from 10 scouts, among them half were head scouts for their respective teams.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

If anything our dire need for C influenced the media's rankings of players, such as Kot ending up in the top-5 in rankings before the draft.

 

[Garbageyuk]

TSN's rankings are a concensus from 10 scouts, among them half were head scouts for their respective teams.

True, forgot about that detail. But plenty still had him outside the top-10. He was a bit of a reach, which I don't like with top-5 picks. Sometimes it works out (Scheifele), but it most often does not. Like I said, there were players with higher upside available.

 

[Garbageyuk]

If anything our dire need for C influenced the media's rankings of players, such as Kot ending up in the top-5 in rankings before the draft.

That could be as well, good point.

 

[Redux91]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

Who's "nobody else?" if you do enough research, hell even a simple google search you'd realize what you said is absolute nonsense and completely against the actual narrative

 

[Garbageyuk]

Who's "nobody else?" if you do enough research, hell even a simple google search you'd realize what you said is absolute nonsense and completely against the actual narrative

Don't get emotional. I already adressed and corrected/clarified myself regarding the TSN rankings in a subsequent post. And what 'narrative'?

 

[sandviper]

I'd really like to see his Liiga advanced stats, especially compared with Kupari's.

This was the best I could do:

Kupari: CF% 46.3 which was below his team’s 53%.

Kotkaniemi: CF% 49.7 which was above his team’s 47.6.

Basically it looks like Ässät did better in controlling play with Kotkaniemi on the ice than Karpat did with Kupari. It’s not a huge gap, but for stat nerds like me, it is a bit of a difference.

If I am reading the site correctly, I believe Kupari had 52.5% of his starts in the oZone. Kotkaniemi was 49.2%, so he gets slightly more defensive assignments.

All the stats are on the Liiga site. Etusivu | Liiga

I don’t want to mislead anyone as there is a lot more to stats, even advanced stats, when comparing players but it looks like Kotkaniemi had better advanced stats (plus, I don’t read the language so I didn’t list everything here like Fenwick, PDO and others), while scoring more points while playing on a much weaker team. There’s probably a half dozen ways to interpret that, but I think statistically it favors Kotkaniemi.

 

[TT1]

This was the best I could do:

Kupari: CF% 46.3 which was below his team’s 53%.

Kotkaniemi: CF% 49.7 which was above his team’s 47.6.

Basically it looks like Ässät did better in controlling play with Kotkaniemi on the ice than Karpat did with Kupari. It’s not a huge gap, but for stat nerds like me, it is a bit of a difference.

If I am reading the site correctly, I believe Kupari had 52.5% of his starts in the oZone. Kotkaniemi was 49.2%, so he gets slightly more defensive assignments.

All the stats are on the Liiga site. Etusivu | Liiga

I don’t want to mislead anyone as there is a lot more to stats, even advanced stats, when comparing players but it looks like Kotkaniemi had better advanced stats (plus, I don’t read the language so I didn’t list everything here like Fenwick, PDO and others), while scoring more points while playing on a much weaker team. There’s probably a half dozen ways to interpret that, but I think statisticallyit favors Kotkaniemi.

I found an amazing adv. stats breakdown, dunno where this guy got his data from but his analysis is really well done:

CANUCKSARMY’S 2018 NHL DRAFT PROFILES: #6 Jesperi Kotkaniemi

 

[sandviper]

I found an amazing adv. stats breakdown, dunno where this guy got his data from but his analysis is really well done:

CANUCKSARMY’S 2018 NHL DRAFT PROFILES: #6 Jesperi Kotkaniemi

I believe he pulled it from the Liiga site also. That was how I found Kupari’s.

 

[Saxon]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

You know you can YouTube his U 18 games, specifically against, Sweden and USA, I doubt after watching them you'll have any questions why he was taken where he was. but if your a stat watcher maybe you can explain to me the difference between Kotkaniemi's point total as a seventeen year old in a professional men's league versus Zadina's point total as a seventeen year old in a professional men's league....

 

[Habs Halifax]

You got to draft centers if you want to acquire a top 2 center. That’s what we did and I think we got a good one! Lots to like about this kid! And he is very young yet and has lots of room to grow!

 

[Garbageyuk]

You know you can YouTube his U 18 games, specifically against, Sweden and USA, I doubt after watching them you'll have any questions why he was taken where he was. but if your a stat watcher maybe you can explain to me the difference between Kotkaniemi's point total as a seventeen year old in a professional men's league versus Zadina's point total as a seventeen year old in a professional men's league....

I've watched him, and I said I like the player. My opinion is just that there were players with higher upside available at 3 - an opinion many others, including scouts, obviously share. Get over it. Nobody is bashing your shiny new toy.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

People need to accept that it was a ballsy pick and thus will be ciriticized. The easy thing would have been to take Zadina.

Ultimately it's up to Kotkaniemi to prove that it was the right selection.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

You're completely wrong. He was 5th on McKenzie's aggregate list directly from the NHL scouts.

This means that out of the 15 to 20 teams he surveyed, Kotka averaged 5th on those list, unless Bobby Mac completely fabricated it, yet he's one the most well respected pundits inside and outside the league. Or all the other teams colluded to prop up Kotka on their own lists. Both are pretty far fetched.

Please do not start propagating a myth.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

I like the player, but I'm not a fan of the pick. I feel like Timmins/Bergevin and co. were influenced by the media. TSN especially was pushing Kotkaniemi to Habs really hard. Nobody else had Kots ranked in the top-10. There were players with higher upside available. I don't care if center was a need. Take BPA. Drafting for need usually ends badly. We'll see.

Mckenzie's list is unbiased by media. It comes from a consensus of anonymous scouts. JK was #5

I will say this, I think a LOT of scouts were influenced by fact this wasn't a high end C draft. Were the habs? i'm not sure.

 

[Garbageyuk]

You're completely wrong. He was 5th on McKenzie's aggregate list directly from the NHL scouts.

This means that out of the 15 to 20 teams he surveyed, Kotka averaged 5th on those list, unless Bobby Mac completely fabricated it, yet he's one tge most well respected pundits inside and outside the league.

Please do not start propagating a myth.

I know. I addressed that in a subsequent post. God people are sensitive about new draft picks.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Mckenzie's list is unbiased by media. It comes from a consensus of anonymous scouts. JK was #5

I will say this, I think a LOT of scouts were influenced by fact this wasn't a high end C draft. Were the habs? i'm not sure.

For the 3rd time, I know. See the subsequent post. The dialog/narrative from TSN was pushing him hard to MTL though, it wasn't just their rankings.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

For the 3rd time, I know.

 

[Garbageyuk]

This corroberates my suspicions about the Habs being influenced by the media:

Hey everyone. I spoke to my friend she works as an admin for the Canadiens.

Last week she confirmed that the team interested in Pacioretty was LA ( see my posts two weeks ago). She also said Zadina was in top of the draft board followed by Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi. At the draft I think management went with Center because they want to show fans they addressed the situation and did mentioned Poehling and Kotkaniemi as our future 1-2.

Obviously take with a grain of salt, but this is not good if true, even if Kotkaniemi pans out.

 

[Garbageyuk]

???

 

[Garbageyuk]

To me, Kotkaniemi's ceiling is a 2C, if everything goes well. Like a 45-50 point 2-way guy most seasons in his prime, which is fantastic. But he doesn't have 1C potential imo. And he's certainly not the franchise 1C savior that people want. I think he's a safe pick (to be an NHL calibre player), but I just don't like it at 3.

 

[Uncle Gary]

Incredible how so many people aren't giving the kid a chance. Could he bust? Sure, but the kid isn't even 18 yet. Give him a chance before saying he will never be a top line C.

 

[StanleyCH25]

Incredible how so many people aren't giving the kid a chance. Could he bust? Sure, but the kid isn't even 18 yet. Give him a chance before saying he will never be a top line C.

I think people are saying expect a solid 2C and you have a better chance of being happy with the pick if he meets or exceeds that expectation. Some are expecting a 1C and he may not develop to that level. He might.. but expecting a 1C could lead fans to being disappointed. I still think Zadina had the higher ceiling but not upset with this pick. Very hard to acquire a good C so you might as well draft them. And by not getting an NHL ready player like Zadina or Tkachuk, we suck for another year and potentially nab another piece for the future.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

To me, Kotkaniemi's ceiling is a 2C, if everything goes well. Like a 45-50 point 2-way guy most seasons in his prime, which is fantastic. But he doesn't have 1C potential imo. And he's certainly not the franchise 1C savior that people want. I think he's a safe pick (to be an NHL calibre player), but I just don't like it at 3.

such a weird post hahaha.

So you think his absolute ceiling is a #2 C and on top of that it's 'fantastic'?

It's just wrong on so many levels. lol. He does have a #1 ceiling. I'm pretty convinced of that. I'm tempted to say that #2's his floor but he could bottom out as a #3 but I think the chances of that happening are pretty small. He's got too much going for him.