Confirmed with Link: Weekesbomb: Palat to NJ for five-year deal

[theoptimist]

Woof. Amazing how teams never learn.

Ready for the rationalizations about how and why Palat will be different.

All those guys are shopping at Claire's.

 

[MadDevil]

I hate it because of the contract

If you're only looking for perfect contracts you're probably going to be pretty miserable.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Talked about by who?

Elliott Friedman reported the devils were interested in Palat the night before. Clearly not a knee jerk reaction.

Also dumb to say he’d be lucky to hit 15 goals when he has done so 3 seasons in a row including in covid shortened seasons.

 

[Whaddagoal]

Doesn’t take much to keep you happy. Do you enjoy being an apologist for management. Palat contract is throwing money away. Guy will be lucky be lucky to score 15 goals for his 6 mill and that is year one. All downhill from there. Contract was some knee jerk reaction to getting snubbed by JG. Could have had Jarnkrok for 50% of that money Im guessing. Anyway nice early retirement package for palat

Holy smokes.

Palat has career 628 games played with 423 points in regular season.
Playoffs: 138 games played with 94 points (48g 46a)

The guy has probably more playoff points than the whole damn squad put together. If you think that doesn't have value for this team, I don't know what to tell you. We watched Zajac for the 2nd half of his career put up similar numbers and we liked it because he was NJ lifer (happened to end up that way)

Also you absolutely have to slightly overpay people to come to NJD because:

1) We have higher income taxes.
2) Higher cost of living overall (metro area).
3) We have a recent historically mediocre team which doesn't necessarily attract EVERY and ALL candidates.

Recently we'd attract middle tier signings and that is what we'd get.

Kovalchuk was a bit of an anomaly because he was trade and re-sign and he came in to a team that had been winning / playoff bound for years prior.

The fact that two top tier UFA players that CHOSE us, very early in the UFA signing period is a actual blessing for this team, particularly going forward. Dougie last season, who was looking amazing until his injuries last season x2 (Jaw, broken toe), and now Palat who is in the similar sphere of sought after UFAs.

We've finally found a few seasons in a row to attract talent to come bolster our young squad that is mired in mediocrity.

 

[HersheyBob27]

lol.

Such a knee jerk that it was being talked about well before free agency even opened.

I hope Jarnkrok could be had for 50% or less. He had 4 points last season.
You’re just delusional.

Scored 15 goals 3 seasons in a row including in COVID shortened seasons but he’s be lucky to hit that next season. Lmao

Tell us how many goals you are expecting from palat. Lmao

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Woof. Amazing how teams never learn.

Ready for the rationalizations about how and why Palat will be different.

It’s not worth explaining why a number of those deals aren’t at all similar to this one. David ****ing Clarkson. Yeah that’s relevant here. You’re choosing to expect the worst. It seems like you’ll certainly be actively rooting for it to go poorly too so you can be right.

 

[Devils731]

Tell us how many goals you are expecting from palat. Lmao

If the odds are 1:1 then the betting should heavily favor the 15 or more side.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I heard palat said Elias was his favorite player growing up

 

[Unknown Caller]

Just a friendly reminder:

We have 17&1/2 million in REMAINING cap space.

Just a reminder: We have to sign Bratt, Wood, Vanecek and Boqvist this year. That's probably about $14.7 million right there. Then you have to re-sign Severson and Siegenthaler next year (yes, you'll shed some of Tatar, Johnsson, Graves, Haula). The cap space is going to dry up fast.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Tell us how many goals you are expecting from palat. Lmao

At least 15. I’d bet he’s more likely to hit 20 than to be below 15 based on how’s he scored over recent seasons.

Not sure what you’re basing your he’ll be lucky to hit 15 claim on.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Zucharello, Coleman and Danault actually undermine the point. All those deals have worked out well so far.

Coleman and Danault are a year into their deals. Danault maybe maybe ages well, I can promise you that Coleman deal will be rough in 2 years maximum.

At least 15. I’d bet he’s more likely to hit 20 than to be below 15 based on how’s he scored over recent seasons.

Not sure what you’re basing your he’ll be lucky to hit 15 claim on.

He's not hitting 20 goals playing with lesser talent.

 

[HersheyBob27]

It’s not worth explaining why a number of those deals aren’t at all similar to this one. David ****ing Clarkson. Yeah that’s relevant here. You’re choosing to expect the worst. It seems like you’ll certainly be actively rooting for it to go poorly too so you can be right.

No excuse for pissing away cap space sorry

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I said it last night, if the Devils do become contenders and this contract becomes an issue. There should be teams who are willing to eat the contract in the last year or two. The issue is once again pinpointing his decline. If it happens in year 2, it's gonna be brutal to get off this roster.

 

[BananaGenetics]

As has been said a bunch, a mil and a year too much is typical of UFA. At least it isnt on a project player or guy with one or two good seasons.

Hes a perfect fit for us. If he was just two inches taller itd be a match made in heaven.

Still not a fan of the deal but thats just because Im used to the rebuild at this point. Any UFA you get from now until our contention ends will be overpaid in some capacity

 

[HersheyBob27]

At least 15. I’d bet he’s more likely to hit 20 than to be below 15 based on how’s he scored over recent seasons.

Not sure what you’re basing your he’ll be lucky to hit 15 claim on.

He has cracked 20 goals once like 10 f**king years ago

 

[Captain3rdLine]

He has once cracked 20 goals once like 10 f**king years ago

He would easily of hit 20+ goals 2 of the last 3 seasons if not for COVID. He put up 18 in 77 last season.

But let’s ignore that.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

This contract runs through 2026-27. Our only other current commitments past next year are Hamilton at $9 million, Hughes $8 million, Hischier $7.25, Mercer $900k, and Brendan Smith just signed at 1.1, as well as other ELCs. Let's say we sign Bratt to a max term deal. Let's estimate high and say he gets the Thomas contract - 8 years, $8 million. We also need to sign Boqvist, Wood, Vanecek, Thompson, and Zetterlund. I forget the exact parameters of what Wood can get in ARB, but that's a 1 year commitment so it's basically meaningless. Boqvist I can see getting $1.5x2 as a player with a decent number of games played at this point. Zetterlund probably more like $1x2, Thompson probably less than that. Let's say Vanecek gets $2.5x2. Let's jump ahead to next offseason.

2023-24
Using our projections from above, we have $39,250,000 committed. We can probably safely assume Foote and Holtz make the team. They will still be on ELCs this year making less than $900k. Other forwards we have to re-sign are Sharangovich, Bastian, McLeod, Tatar, Johnsson, Haula, Wood. Let's say we keep Haula of the 3 UFAs and he get's $2x2 or something. Sharangovich, let's say he plays mostly on Jack's wing again this year and hits 30 goals. We can sign him to a 5 year deal that takes him through 27-28, past when Palat's contract will be gone. Let's say he gets $5.5 million. McLeod and Bastian are probably either non-tendered or sign for around $1 million. Wood is probably gone either because he came back and performed well enough to earn a bigger contract than I want to give him, or he fizzles.

On D, We expect Nemec and Luke will both begin playing on their ELCs this year and expect both to play for NJ. We have Severson, Graves Seigenthaler, Ty smith, and Bahl on expiring contracts. I really don't see a world where Ty Smith fits with us long term so let's assume he's traded for futures or something. Graves walks, Let's say Seigs gets the same defensive D contract that everyone got this offseason of something like 4x$4.25. Let's say Bahl gets 2x$1.2. I think the right move is to keep Severson. Let's say he gets 6x$7.

Impossible to guess what goalie looks like, so I'm just going to budget $5 million each year for that moving forward.
Total commitments: $67,139,000

2024-25
Projections from above, we have about $64,289,000 committed. after B. Smith, Mercer, and Foote all expire. It's tough to project Mercer, but let's assume we sign him to a bridge deal at a $5 aav. Foote maybe costs $2 million unless he is much better than I think he is. ELC D-man +850k. Holtz, again tough to predict but let's say he is good and we want to sign him long-term for $8 million aav.
Total commitments: $72,139.00

2025-26
Using our projections and continuing to just lump goaltending as $5 million, Zetterlund, Boqvist, and Thompson all need to be reupped. We had their contracts pegged at about $3.25 million before, so we have just under $70 million committed. Holtz is also off his ELC going into this year and will likely cost a lot unless he's a bust. At this point I'm less interested in projecting specific contracts as who the hell knows what these guys will be 3 more seasons from now. Point being that this is the year the cap is projected to jump big time and we're still nowhere near it.

2026-27
Now things get dicey as Palat will certainly not be worth his contract, Holtz may be much, much more expensive, and Nemec and Luke are coming off their ELC. At this point we will probably need to dump Palat and one of Severson or Hamilton to re-sign the younger D. But again, the cap should be much higher by this point and the cost to move one year of a $6 million contract won't be a lot. Or LTIR, or whatever. It's not going to be an issue until his last year and then we can just get rid of it. Hamilton will probably be the more costly contract to move.

Again, this isn't a good contract and we can't go around signing more of them every year, but we can basically re-sign every significant piece in our organization and still carry it for 4 of the 5 years. It doesn't matter if you signed Gaudreau, Palat, or whoever, it was always going to be a breeze up until Luke and Nemec come off their ELCs. That's the point where keeping whoever we actually want to keep gets tricky. Before then, we can still add one or more significant players and still keep the ones that are worth it. We will have a number of expendable prospects to trade for additional depth or future picks to replenish as our roster ages and gets more expensive. this contract is a non issue for 4 of the 5 years it exists, and then the 5th year the cap could be over $90 million.

Awesome write up.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

He has once cracked 20 goals once like 10 f**king years ago

Not a meaningful stat. He averages 18.7 goals per 82 for his career. He averages 28 goals per 82 in the postseason. And he isn’t here just to score goals, but this is all pointless. He will explode because he’s 31. I’ve never seen an intelligent player be solid in their 30s.

 

[Whaddagoal]

I really don't get it, some of you all here.

We all supposedly want a winning team soon, and now there are complaints about using too much cap space (particularly future cap space down the road) while we are trying to fill team with higher quality talent to start winning now, something we haven't seen since about 2011-2012.

We sign a guy who won 2 cups and was one of their critical cogs for said former (practical dynasty) team, and is basically above 0.5 PPG career player, with a ridiculous playoff scoring percentage too, and somehow its not good enough.

We can alternatively, just keep the effing cap space and sit as a basement dweller team and keep talking about why we cannot attract talent (good UFA talent) to this team and think/argue about prospect futures or prospect development failures (aka. Zacha, or whomever fills the bill next) for the next 5 years.

If we don't start winning now, we won't keep Bratt, or whomever else looks good and starts looking at other options.

 

[HersheyBob27]

He would easily of hit 20+ goals 2 of the last 3 seasons if not for COVID. He put up 18 in 77 last season.

But let’s ignore that.

If his production is worth 6Mthen JG was worth 15M. Give your head a shake. Hes gonna make tatar look good

 

[NjDevsRR]

42 pages for a Palat signing.

Some of you need to be focused on something else lol.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Just a friendly reminder:

We have 17&1/2 million in REMAINING cap space.

And?

 

[SempreMilan]

Palat is sound defensively, battles for the puck, and should see an uptick in production because he will likely be a bigger part of the offense here. Theres a chance Palat actually ages well also. I like the signing.

Bratt- Hughes- Mercer
Sharangovich- Hischier- Holtz
Palat- Huala- Zetterlund
Foote- McLeod- Bastian

 

[HersheyBob27]

Not a meaningful stat. He averages 18.7 goals per 82 for his career. He averages 28 goals per 82 in the postseason. And he isn’t here just to score goals, but this is all pointless. He will explode because he’s 31. I’ve never seen an intelligent player be solid in their 30s.

Who cares about ‘per 82’? He has never played a full season in his life. Now that I look closer we can probably expect him to miss about 20 games with injuries each year. And playoffs stats who cares we have no chance at this point

 

[BananaGenetics]

Palat is sound defensively, battles for the puck, and should see an uptick in production because he will likely be a bigger part of the offense here. Theres a chance Palat actually ages well also. I like the signing.

Bratt- Hughes- Mercer
Sharangovich- Hischier- Holtz
Palat- Huala- Zetterlund
Foote- McLeod- Bastian

Like the lineup. Few tweaks for me;

Bratt and Sharangovich I believe have shown multi-wing capable, so Palat on the 2nd to help grind for Jack and Holtz on the 3rd to start and grow into is probably a smart option.

Also I liked Boqvist last year in the 2nd half so I dont think he wont make the team. Hes very speedy and that alone may be coveted, since hes a hard forechecker. Think Foote spends one more year in the A and comes up or we move him after. Hes only turning 22 this year.