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Buffalo Bills Week 5: Bills v. Steelers (Sun. 10/9, 1:00PM)

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My Cozen Dylan said:
I've been pretty set on letting Poyer walk (because someone has to go to fit under the cap) but seeing the difference in the play of the secondary with him in the lineup...maybe just pay the man.
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will probably have to choose between Poyer or Edmunds. Will depend on what they think about there backups (Johnson, Bernard)
 
Just dropping in this thread real quick to say that Baltimore's failed 4th and goal is the poster child for analytics gone wild. Harbaugh's post game explanation was a prime example of going so far into the weeds and overthinking the simple, that you can't grasp the obvious when it's staring you in the face.

I'm quite pleased via schadenfreude of the result, but damn already...when will coaches get off the analytics train when it's running off the tracks and over a cliff???
 
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Sort of watching GB/NE and:
1) NE being up 3 with a 3rd string rookie QB says more about GB than it does NE I think
2) The NFL really need to change the play clock/delay of game rule and how delay of game is called in the off season.
 
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Sabresfansince1980 said:
Just dropping in this thread real quick to say that Baltimore's failed 4th and goal is the poster child for analytics gone wild. Harbaugh's post game explanation was a prime example of going so far into the weeds and overthinking the simple, that you can't grasp the obvious when it's staring you in the face.

I'm quite pleased via schadenfreude of the result, but damn already...when will coaches get off the analytics train when it's running off the tracks and over a cliff???
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You play that sequence ten times over, they score more touchdowns than not. This was just one of those sequences in which they didn't. I'm glad to be on the other end of it, but I make that play ten times over. Just like rushing Allen on the goal line against Tennessee.
 
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Sabresfansince1980 said:
Just dropping in this thread real quick to say that Baltimore's failed 4th and goal is the poster child for analytics gone wild. Harbaugh's post game explanation was a prime example of going so far into the weeds and overthinking the simple, that you can't grasp the obvious when it's staring you in the face.

I'm quite pleased via schadenfreude of the result, but damn already...when will coaches get off the analytics train when it's running off the tracks and over a cliff???
Click to expand...
Going for it was the right call and I will die on this hill



Those that hate analytics won't be persuaded by this, but 4th down decision bot firmly agrees with going for it.
 
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Mike McDermott said:
Sort of watching GB/NE and:
1) NE being up 3 with a 3rd string rookie QB says more about GB than it does NE I think
2) The NFL really need to change the play clock/delay of game rule and how delay of game is called in the off season.
Click to expand...
I wish they'd cut over to tenths of a second, once the timer dropped to less than a second. And the reason being would be to help refs key in on what really constitutes a delay of game penalty; right now, counting down on "Mississippi(s)" isn't good enough.
 
buffa dud said:
I wish they'd cut over to tenths of a second, once the timer dropped to less than a second. And the reason being would be to help refs key in on what really constitutes a delay of game penalty; right now, counting down on "Mississippi(s)" isn't good enough.
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Just do a buzzer like the NBA shot clock. Then the ref just needs to watch the ball. Ball not snapped when the buzzer sounds, delay of game. If they want to change the display in the stadium, fine, but there is zero reason for the ref to need to look at the ball and clock. This is a billion dollar company, there is absolutely no excuse for the clock to be ran it is and as I mentioned earlier, no reason for them to hire and use refs the way they so. Refs should be full time league employees with no M-F main job.
 
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buffa dud said:
You play that sequence ten times over, they score more touchdowns than not. This was just one of those sequences in which they didn't. I'm glad to be on the other end of it, but I make that play ten times over. Just like rushing Allen on the goal line against Tennessee.
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Husko said:
Going for it was the right call and I will die on this hill



Those that hate analytics won't be persuaded by this, but 4th down decision bot firmly agrees with going for it.
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You fail 3 or 4 times and put your team in a terrible position, or take the lead every time and give your good defense a chance.

The analytics don't matter because it's throwing common sense out the window. In that setting you take the lead and put the game in the hands of your players. It was dumb. Tell me that's the right call when it's the SB.
 
Sabresfansince1980 said:
You fail 3 or 4 times and put your team in a terrible position, or take the lead every time and give your good defense a chance.

The analytics don't matter because it's throwing common sense out the window. In that setting you take the lead and put the game in the hands of your players. It was dumb. Tell me that's the right call when it's the SB.
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If you fail in that situation, 99% of the time you're setting your defense up very, very well. They'd been pressuring Josh a bunch all day and had had some recent success stopping the Bills.

It's a FAR, FAR different game and ending had Lamar not thrown an INT.
 
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Zman5778 said:
If you fail in that situation, 99% of the time you're setting your defense up very, very well. They'd been pressuring Josh a bunch all day and had had some recent success stopping the Bills.

It's a FAR, FAR different game and ending had Lamar not thrown an INT.
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Points count a lot more than field position. Taking a lead gives your defense more of an advantage than the yardage, by putting pressure on the Bills offense.
 
Dirty Dog said:
In reality…we drove 99 yards and could have had a TD?

At the time AND in hindsight…seemed like the right decision
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There's no guarantee we go on a td drive if the field goal is kicked, so you can't make that argument.

You always take the points in that situation. All the talking heads after the game were saying the same thing. It was a no brainer, or should have been.

Moot point now though.
 
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Hmmm
 
Also kept watching and not following online, but also started drinking at the 2 min mark so, I'll take that as a convenient sign from god.

Great second half, unbelievable rally by the defense and the line and the offense clearly applied like tar to gloves at halftime. Last drive was killer football.

Harbaugh made the right decision, the Bills D line just blew it up and forced the late, off balance throw. Hope the 17 yds Poyer gave them didn't cost him a broken collarbone...
 
Sabresfansince1980 said:
You fail 3 or 4 times and put your team in a terrible position, or take the lead every time and give your good defense a chance.

The analytics don't matter because it's throwing common sense out the window. In that setting you take the lead and put the game in the hands of your players. It was dumb. Tell me that's the right call when it's the SB.
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going for it on 4th down is putting the ball in the hands of one of the best QBs in the league
 
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New Sabres Captain said:
By the same token, why would going for it and not getting the TD be treated as pre-determined?

Ravens execute (which quite frankly seemed like a good bet the way the drive occurred) and Allen now needs a TD.

Seems like we are focusing on the negative of that risk because it came to fruition, perhaps just like we are focusing on the Bills driving to the one on the ensuing possession because it also came to fruition.
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i was screaming 'why are they going for it' for like 10 seconds before that play, which got progressively louder as i saw lamar running for his life 20 yards into the backfield.... then louder again as he threw the ball towards a pack of swarming deffenders. our defense had a monster 2nd half. i would have kicked the field goal under the circumstance. their offense was just not moving the ball. it might have been their only chance to get any sort of points, never mind a td
 
Sabresfansince1980 said:
You fail 3 or 4 times and put your team in a terrible position, or take the lead every time and give your good defense a chance.

The analytics don't matter because it's throwing common sense out the window. In that setting you take the lead and put the game in the hands of your players. It was dumb. Tell me that's the right call when it's the SB.
Click to expand...
Your team is not in a bad situation when you miss 9 times out of 10 - the defensive team is actually the more likely team to be next to score when the offense has the ball inside their own 3. Lamar throwing the pick instead of an incompletion made a huge difference in the result of the game. Nobody knows what would have happened if we're operating in the shadow of our own goal posts because play calling changes significantly there.

The other offense starting inside their own 5 is a huge part of the analytical calculus. You can't just ignore that an interception is a rare event there (would you kick on 3rd to avoid a potential INT? Obviously not. )
 
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