WCSF | Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers | Round 2 - FIGHT!

[Mr. Canucklehead]

It’s official, bring on the Oilers!

Oiler Killers:
Quinn Hughes - 25GP, 3G, 19A, 22Pts
JT Miller - 32GP, 11G, 23A, 34Pts
Brock Boeser - 31GP, 16G, 11A, 27Pts

Season Series:
October 11, 2023
Vancouver def. Edmonton - 8-1


October 14, 2023
Vancouver def. Edmonton - 4-3


November 6, 2023
Vancouver def. Edmonton - 6-2


April 13, 2024
Vancouver def. Edmonton 3-1

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Click to read more...

 

[Vector]

I don't think it's based on one round. It's mostly using regular season data to feed into the model. Dom has made some adjustments recently (factoring in QoC more heavily in how they affect the player ratings), so he has tried to quantitatively adjust more for contextual factors.

There are definitely things to disagree with on Dom's model, as there is with any model, or literally any person's opinion. But his evaluation of each team is largely in line with the sportsbooks prices. If he was really way off, sharp bettors would be slamming money on the Canucks and pushing their implied probability up.

If we think Dom is very wrong, there is opportunity to make a lot of money, given the sportsbook odds. And have a very fun 2nd round.

For the bolded, I thought so as well but the his rankings and depth chart clearly say "Playoff depth chart" and he repeats this in his article.

Yes, he's mentioned that he's adjusting his model to add more of it in. A big part of the problem is that it's taken him this long to figure out that's required. I've mostly stopped reading and commenting on his articles partially because I find them boring but mostly I don't actually take anything interesting away from them.

I'm vehemently against sports gambling so not going touch the rest. Difference of opinion and where you and me diverge the most.

 

[Flik]

First Volley @ QH by Coiler's Faithful Parrot:

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It's true though, Hughes does have perma-sad face. That makes it all the more hilarious when he obliterates opponents, breaks their ankles, makes them look like fools, etc etc, but then looks sad doing it.

Almost like his face is saying "It pains me to kick your ass so much, but alas... it had to be done."

 

[larueskee]

I just fear we will be playing against the refs again. They love them some Oilers.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

It's true though, Hughes does have perma-sad face. That makes it all the more hilarious when he obliterates opponents, breaks their ankles, makes them look like fools, etc etc, but then looks sad doing it.

Almost like his face is saying "It pains me to kick your ass so much, but alas... it had to be done."

You now what’s funny about this I was watching the game with friends and family. And I think it was game 4 where it looked like Hughes might be hurt he wasn’t. But someone yelled out why does it look like he is gonna cry when they showed Hughes on the bench. So, when I heard that clip that is the first thing I thought and it did kind of look like he was gonna cry tbh.

 

[Vector]

 

[Tact]

Thanks for that. JT has really turned into a natural leader for this team. As long as they put a heavy forecheck against EDM, they will have success as thats how they buckle under pressure.

LA’s 1-3-1 sitting back doesn’t work against EDM because it allows to them skate and make plays not under pressure.

Should be fun

 

[olafsson]

The way Oilers fans have been talking in facts and absolutes in regards to the series not going past 4 or 5, I’ve never wanted to beat a team so bad before just to see the full on meltdown and tears coming from that fan base. They deserve everything coming to them if they happen to lose to Vancouver

 

[Zippgunn]

I just fear we will be playing against the refs again. They love them some Oilers.

The whining about the refs gets tedious. I seriously doubt the calls will be as one sided as they were in the first series. We are due a few close calls after those 2 dubious goals...

 

[WetcoastOrca]

We swept the season series and finished higher than the Oilers in the standings. No one gave the Canucks a pass when they started out slow a couple of years in a row and missed the playoffs and I don’t think the Oilers should get a pass either.
They are a good team but have some pretty big weaknesses. That said, with Demko out, I would have the Oilers as the favourite but I think it will be a close series.

 

[quat]

If the Oilers play a team game the Canucks will get slaughtered. If the Canucks can play their solid, puck moving defensive system, they stand a chance of winning a couple of games. If the oilers lose their shit and get frustrated, the Canucks stand a small chance of winning the series. The Canucks need everyone playing at the top of their game to succeed. Hopefully they'll stick to the program and let Edmonton dictate the play.

This could be an exceptionally fun series to watch.

Not sure my crappy attitude will let me enjoy it, but hopefully I can grow as a fan and appreciate this second round matchup.

 

[VanJack]

Unfortunately, you know the refs are probably going to decide at least one or two games in this series.

In fact if the Canucks take as many penalties as they did against the Preds, they're going to get burned. A four-minute minor like the one Boeser was dinged with in the sixth game against Nashville, will probably prove fatal.

Tocchet has already laid down the challenge to his team to 'stay out of the box'. Five-on-five they have a shot......but a parade to the penalty box will doom them for sure.

 

[Petey O]

Unfortunately, you know the refs are probably going to decide at least one or two games in this series.

In fact if the Canucks take as many penalties as they did against the Preds, they're going to get burned. A four-minute minor like the one Boeser was dinged with in the sixth game against Nashville, will probably prove fatal.

Tocchet has already laid down the challenge to his team to 'stay out of the box'. Five-on-five they have a shot......but a parade to the penalty box will doom them for sure.

Yep. One bad penalty, a double minor, or a 5 minute major can completely win the Coilers a game because they can just keep spamming McDavid and Drai, with Drai's annoying one timer play.

The PK is going to have to be excellent.

This series is likely going to be a reffing nightmare. The Coilers get calls up the yingyang, and many of them are phantom.

 

[Kickassguy]

I'm a bit wary of Silovs in this series (or really, any goalie aside from Demmer, but no sense bemoaning spilt milk). Silovs was certainly solid vs the Preds but Nashville has a popgun offense compared to Edmonton; I'm concerned the lateral/cross-seam passes that Edmonton PP is so fond of will expose him pretty quickly. This series is going to have to be a systems win for Vancouver to pull it off.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Seems like the general outcome from pundits around the league, is that the Oilers will take the series in 5 or 6 games.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I'm a bit wary of Silovs in this series (or really, any goalie aside from Demmer, but no sense bemoaning spilt milk). Silovs was certainly solid vs the Preds but Nashville has a popgun offense compared to Edmonton; I'm concerned the lateral/cross-seam passes that Edmonton PP is so fond of will expose him pretty quickly. This series is going to have to be a systems win for Vancouver to pull it off.

I think it’s a valid concern - but nothing we can do other than wait and see how he does. He’s answered the bell for us so far, hopefully he can keep rising to the occasion. And hopefully the team can give him offensive support.

 

[Tact]

Seems like the general outcome from pundits around the league, is that the Oilers will take the series in 5 or 6 games.

That could very well happen if Demko doesn’t return and Silovs doesn’t have an answer for EDM’s offence.

But no one is really talking about the potential that the Canucks have to win this series provided they have the confidence and have good goaltending. We match up well against them all things considered.

 

[Flik]

If we just do our best, and leave it all on the ice, I'll be happy no matter what.

A series win would be incredible, of course, and I think if a lot of things come together for us we can do it, but it'll require some players to step up big time.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

That could very well happen if Demko doesn’t return and Silovs doesn’t have an answer for EDM’s offence.

But no one is really talking about the potential that the Canucks have to win this series provided they have the confidence and have good goaltending. We match up well against them all things considered.

Hopefully our boys embrace the role of being the underdog and take it to them.

 

[EpochLink]

Leave it out on the ice, play your best

 

[Flik]

Hughes' minutes should probably go into the 25+ minute range, even if it means double shifting him with Cole, Zadorov, etc. (please not with Myers, that always goes poorly). His transition game will be paramount, and his speed makes him one of the few guys who can skate with McDavid without taking a penalty.

I think this 100% needs to happen! Hughes was playing pretty limited minutes in the Nashville series, but he's gonna have to start getting comfortable with 25-30 minute games. Lidstrom, Niedermayer, Pronger, Keith (UGH), Doughty, Makar, etc etc

All the great defensemen of the past couple decades would play those 25+ minute games in the playoffs and it makes such a difference to have a game breaker like that on the ice for half a game.

 

[NinjaKick]

like it or not, I'm jumping on the Canucks bandwagon for the playoffs (at this point... I just want a cup in Canada)...

my hobbies include:
-cooking (as fresh and healthy as possible)
-canning and preserving foods
-fishing
-hiking/outdoors
-old school video games (NES,SNES,SEGA,PS1,PS2)
-horror movies
-thrift store shopping
-music (everything but country)
-going to church
-upskirting

 

[krutovsdonut]

i never ever bet but i might here on canucks in 6 with that payout. the posted online odds on this series are pretty haywire.

if the oiler record against the canucks and early season form gets discounted then nashville must be credited for late season form which was better than the oilers. canucks shut down a team that was on a long heater, habitually scoring 3-5 goals a game and we overcame their strong defence and goalie.

oilers overwhelmed a timid 1-3-1 team with personnel problems, second tier goaltending and whose best players are over 34. my view is that the canucks just beat a much tougher, younger more motivated and unified opponent with better form than the kings and had to play a much tougher brand of hockey to do it. i think the oilers are not ready to play like that and, being the oilers, they won't accept they have to adjust fully against the canucks for at least a couple of games. the oilers have not handled the canuck forecheck all season. add to that to more time and space for the canucks players after a series with none and 5 ot 6 games is doable. for the canucks.

the wild cards for me are injuries, penalties and the way the canucks play in front of desmith. i believe the key oilers are healthy. i don't believe the canucks are healthy even leaving demko and ep out of the equation. if hughes is hurt or if the oilers get to silovs early this will be ugly. if the refs hand out penalties like candy we are done. otherewise, canucks in 6.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Seems like the general outcome from pundits around the league, is that the Oilers will take the series in 5 or 6 games.

I hear Coilers in 3.

 

[canuckking1]

Winning this series is gonna feel sooo good

 

[Jyrki]

Being the underdogs should be good IMO, the team knows it's done well already. Should help a guy like Petey stop overthinking and maybe he can pop off from the lessened pressure.