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WCSF | Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers | Round 2 - FIGHT!

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Grub said:
Seems like were the underdogs here judging by the responses in the main boards. I just want the boys to fight as hard as possible. I think people are underestimating our depth. If Quinn Hughes plays at his Norris level then we have a chance.
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I posted some ideas I had for improved PP results a few games ago and last game what I posted would have worked, it almost did.

It works for Edmonton quite often. While Hughes is not McJesus he can skate and hold the puck.

Circle the DZone once maybe twice and look for players flat on their feet, standing still, most often they all drop lower in the zone but almost all will stop and stand still, then it isn't a matter of just passing through lanes but also a seam may open for a shot but by doing this he could open a passing lane to EP for a one timer or Miller for one, if the land opens then the Canucks just have to know what he is going to do, maybe a nod, wink or a word from him and they go to the blue on his shot.

It has worked that way for decades, puck carrier attracts attention and player don't want to be caught out of position. See one Bures goals against the Devils, just because he could skate around them they stopped and he beat one guy and danced around the rest of their team to score, they were all standing still. That is just an example that can be seen on youtube.
 
The Athletic's series preview came up, and its a banger in the way that only Dom could make it. The Canucks apparently have worse depth and worse blueline compared to the Oilers :laugh:

Everything is pooled in a weird way (top 4 players vs top 4, then rest of the roster according to his net ratings, which have so many fundamental flaws I won't even get into), no talk of adjustments each team would make, how different pairings and lines would match up, etc. Hell, its even mentioned the Oilers won the expected goal battle in the season series 15-13! Who writes that when it was so lopsided 21-7 on the actual ice.

You want to argue the Oilers top of the line is so good they'll win the series because of it, hey, I won't argue - McDavid + Drai make the Oilers the favorite this series. But the nonsense of that blueline being decent, or the bottom 6 being comparable to what Vancouver has, is laughable.

In terms of actual analysis, I think the big leverage point Tocchet has this series is to reduce the 4th line's ice time significantly at ES, likely into the 5-6 minute range. The Canucks go 3 lines deep that can pressure (when they're on), and its paramount they take advantage of any time McDavid or Drai aren't on the ice. He tried sheltering them a lot with offensive zone faceoffs after icing calls, but I don't think we're afforded that same luxury this series.

Hughes' minutes should probably go into the 25+ minute range, even if it means double shifting him with Cole, Zadorov, etc. (please not with Myers, that always goes poorly). His transition game will be paramount, and his speed makes him one of the few guys who can skate with McDavid without taking a penalty.
 
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theguardianII said:
I posted some ideas I had for improved PP results a few games ago and last game what I posted would have worked, it almost did.

It works for Edmonton quite often. While Hughes is not McJesus he can skate and hold the puck.

Circle the DZone once maybe twice and look for players flat on their feet, standing still, most often they all drop lower in the zone but almost all will stop and stand still, then it isn't a matter of just passing through lanes but also a seam may open for a shot but by doing this he could open a passing lane to EP for a one timer or Miller for one, if the land opens then the Canucks just have to know what he is going to do, maybe a nod, wink or a word from him and they go to the blue on his shot.

It has worked that way for decades, puck carrier attracts attention and player don't want to be caught out of position. See one Bures goals against the Devils, just because he could skate around them they stopped and he beat one guy and danced around the rest of their team to score, they were all standing still. That is just an example that can be seen on youtube.
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I've believed for a few years now that you could start using the old right handed D on the left point, left handed D on the right, big guy in front of the net power play (Salo/Ohlund/Bertuzzi, Kaberle/McCabe, Souray/Smythe) and it would be seen as revolutionary.

The umbrella makes me want to pull my hair out.
 
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thecupismine said:
The Athletic's series preview came up, and its a banger in the way that only Dom could make it. The Canucks apparently have worse depth and worse blueline compared to the Oilers :laugh:

Everything is pooled in a weird way (top 4 players vs top 4, then rest of the roster according to his net ratings, which have so many fundamental flaws I won't even get into), no talk of adjustments each team would make, how different pairings and lines would match up, etc. Hell, its even mentioned the Oilers won the expected goal battle in the season series 15-13! Who writes that when it was so lopsided 21-7 on the actual ice.

You want to argue the Oilers top of the line is so good they'll win the series because of it, hey, I won't argue - McDavid + Drai make the Oilers the favorite this series. But the nonsense of that blueline being decent, or the bottom 6 being comparable to what Vancouver has, is laughable.

In terms of actual analysis, I think the big leverage point Tocchet has this series is to reduce the 4th line's ice time significantly at ES, likely into the 5-6 minute range. The Canucks go 3 lines deep that can pressure (when they're on), and its paramount they take advantage of any time McDavid or Drai aren't on the ice. He tried sheltering them a lot with offensive zone faceoffs after icing calls, but I don't think we're afforded that same luxury this series.

Hughes' minutes should probably go into the 25+ minute range, even if it means double shifting him with Cole, Zadorov, etc. (please not with Myers, that always goes poorly). His transition game will be paramount, and his speed makes him one of the few guys who can skate with McDavid without taking a penalty.
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His takes aren't terrible, but they definitely lack some context. I assume he's labelling the Soucy-Myers pairing as the 2nd pair, since he's talking about elevating Zadorov, and Soucy had a rough first round, all things considered. They also said the Oilers second pair has been terrible, which is true.

There's no hiding the Canucks are riding a third-string goalie, or that Pettersson has been poor thus far, that's just reality. The depth chart numerical criticism is largely driven by the fact Pettersson's wingers also sucked in the first round, and that whole line is a massive drag on that metric. Canucks actually have a better third line (which is probably actually our second line now).

All in all, 2000+ words to explain what could be said in one sentence: "If the Canucks want a chance to win, Pettersson's line has to stop sucking and the Canucks need good goaltending."
 
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The nice part with Silovs is there is no book yet. The Oilers are probably scrambling around trying to find footage. With DeSmith teams were throwing pucks high and crashing the net after he would drop rebounds at his feet in a bit of a vertical posture. Were in tough without Demko but as mentioned above it could get in the Oiler heads too if they dont find success early and figure out how to attack Silovs.

Unfortunately the refs and their willingness to call marginal penalties will have a huge influence. Have to channel that into quality response not negative energy though. We have the PP horses too when going....have to execute not build in excuses and feel like it's us vs them.

A chance to start fresh hopefully gets EP40 going. Really hope for his sake he can get one in the first couple periods to shake this lack of confidence and delay in his decisions. Have no idea what to do with Mikhayev.....probably better off with Lafferty at this stage if they keep Lindholm with Joshua and Garland. Feel like they missed a bit of a opportunity to spark something with Podkolzin early in the Preds series but whatever it is what it is now. Mikhayev's speed should help negate the Oilers speed at least in transition

opening here we get last change. Should be interesting what Tocchet is looking for vs the Oilers in terms of match ups. Would think that Edmonton will want the Draisaitl line or even McDavid against Petterssons while Tocchet might just be fine with EP40 vs McDavid have Lindholm vs Draisaitl and then free up Miller to go against the Oilers btm6.

I think both coaches will be more concerned with defensive and offensive zone match ups vs head to head other than the Oilers absolutely wanting to go for the throat with Pettersson vs Draisaitl as he can abuse him down low and without any production 5v5 that would wear us down at minimum.

It should be a great series. I suspect we try and continue the low event tactics to start which kinda sucks but i doubt Tocchet wants to open it up for Silovs to be potentially exposed. Nice thing unlike the Nashville series there should be more counterattack opportunities.

Nucks have nothing to lose unlike the Oilers ...hopefully that alone can get them squeezing the sticks

Excited to get this going
 
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Vector said:
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Full context on this, we have no idea:

UPDATE: Sources have indicated a May 8 Game 1 may also be in play, depending on the result of the Dallas Stars/Vegas Golden Knights Game 7 on Sunday, because of building availability in Dallas on Wednesday, when American Airlines Arena is hosting a concert for super-popular Mexican crooner Luis Miguel. Long story short: If Vegas wins, the Canucks vs Oilers series would start Tuesday; if Dallas wins, the Canucks vs. Oilers series could start Wednesday, unless the NHL wants to give the Stars a couple extra days off and delays the series’ start till Thursday.
 
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Vector said:
I’m in my late 30s so it’s increasingly difficult to have real friendships. A big part of maintaining relationships as you get older is making an effort to keep in contact even when you have other responsibilities. I have three days a week where I call my various friends and play games. One group is from university, another are more recent work friends, and the longest running time is my friend in Japan.

This is my all-too-serious response to a joke question. ;)
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i feel this

do any of them like hockey?

a couple of my friends had a weekly hang where they would do a facetime and watch the new ep of nathan fielder together, which is super cute
 
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Mr. Canucklehead said:
Hopefully all the overconfidence of the pundits and the media in the Oilers’ ability to wreck Vancouver goes to the Oilers players’ heads.
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Yeah, I hope they come in super overconfident, though I suspect the drubbings they received at the Canucks' hands this season will also be playing in their minds.

The Oilers seem like an incredibly fragile team emotionally, whereas Tocchet's Canucks feel pretty resilient and even-keeled, (perhaps EP aside). That is perhaps our biggest strength entering in. If they can get to the Oilers goaltending early and often, morale will droop.
 
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vadim sharifijanov said:
i feel this

do any of them like hockey?

a couple of my friends had a weekly hang where they would do a facetime and watch the new ep of nathan fielder together, which is super cute
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The Wednesday guys make fun of me for even liking sports. Tuesday group starts later and are easier to cancel on since I see them. Saturday is an Englishman living in Japan, he only knows what hockey is filtered through me. We’ve been doing this for 10 years so canceling to watch a hockey game is no big deal.
 
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Vector said:
The Wednesday guys make fun of me for even liking sports. Tuesday group starts later and are easier to cancel on since I see them. Saturday is an Englishman living in Japan, he only knows what hockey is filtered through me. We’ve been doing this for 10 years so canceling to watch a hockey game is no big deal.
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This couldve been written by Sopel fan and would be just as erotic
 
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Vector said:
I’m in my late 30s so it’s increasingly difficult to have real friendships. A big part of maintaining relationships as you get older is making an effort to keep in contact even when you have other responsibilities. I have three days a week where I call my various friends and play games. One group is from university, another are more recent work friends, and the longest running time is my friend in Japan.

This is my all-too-serious response to a joke question. ;)
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, I don't know what you mean by this.

Is that even a word?
 
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Dom L’s system has Hughes rated the same as Bouchard. How he forms his thoughts on hockey are worthless and actively make The Athletic that reference them worse.

Now this current rating system is based on one round so it’s even noisier and less informative than his usually useless rankings.

He doesn’t seem to actually understand hockey beyond numbers in his model. I’m continuously surprised how nascent public hockey analytics, and stubborn, still is. Nowhere near as informative or understanding of how context matters as other sports.
 
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sting101 said:
The nice part with Silovs is there is no book yet. The Oilers are probably scrambling around trying to find footage. With DeSmith teams were throwing pucks high and crashing the net after he would drop rebounds at his feet in a bit of a vertical posture. Were in tough without Demko but as mentioned above it could get in the Oiler heads too if they dont find success early and figure out how to attack Silovs.

Unfortunately the refs and their willingness to call marginal penalties will have a huge influence. Have to channel that into quality response not negative energy though. We have the PP horses too when going....have to execute not build in excuses and feel like it's us vs them.

A chance to start fresh hopefully gets EP40 going. Really hope for his sake he can get one in the first couple periods to shake this lack of confidence and delay in his decisions. Have no idea what to do with Mikhayev.....probably better off with Lafferty at this stage if they keep Lindholm with Joshua and Garland. Feel like they missed a bit of a opportunity to spark something with Podkolzin early in the Preds series but whatever it is what it is now. Mikhayev's speed should help negate the Oilers speed at least in transition

opening here we get last change. Should be interesting what Tocchet is looking for vs the Oilers in terms of match ups. Would think that Edmonton will want the Draisaitl line or even McDavid against Petterssons while Tocchet might just be fine with EP40 vs McDavid have Lindholm vs Draisaitl and then free up Miller to go against the Oilers btm6.

I think both coaches will be more concerned with defensive and offensive zone match ups vs head to head other than the Oilers absolutely wanting to go for the throat with Pettersson vs Draisaitl as he can abuse him down low and without any production 5v5 that would wear us down at minimum.

It should be a great series. I suspect we try and continue the low event tactics to start which kinda sucks but i doubt Tocchet wants to open it up for Silovs to be potentially exposed. Nice thing unlike the Nashville series there should be more counterattack opportunities.

Nucks have nothing to lose unlike the Oilers ...hopefully that alone can get them squeezing the sticks

Excited to get this going
Click to expand...
The Oiler defence is still vulnerable. I think the Canucks have one up on them on defence and for that matter LA.

The McD line can be contained in their zone.

Honestly Hughes is going to have trouble if the Oilers get the puck in deep, something the Canucks might try is getting THE BEST defensive forward they have and having him come back deep and get Hughes up high as a rover. One on one I think Hughes will beat most of the Oiler defence and/or draw penalties. But the Canucks need to change Hughes defensive responsibilities in his own zone even if it meant promoting a LD from the farm to play in that 5 man unit.

While there were not too many goals against when he was on the ice the goalie had to work much harder.

I think Tocchet did have him playing more as a rover in the last game. It puts a lot of pressure on his partner but it could work as long as the defensive forward drops back early.
 
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thecupismine said:
The Athletic's series preview came up, and its a banger in the way that only Dom could make it. The Canucks apparently have worse depth and worse blueline compared to the Oilers :laugh:

Everything is pooled in a weird way (top 4 players vs top 4, then rest of the roster according to his net ratings, which have so many fundamental flaws I won't even get into), no talk of adjustments each team would make, how different pairings and lines would match up, etc. Hell, its even mentioned the Oilers won the expected goal battle in the season series 15-13! Who writes that when it was so lopsided 21-7 on the actual ice.

You want to argue the Oilers top of the line is so good they'll win the series because of it, hey, I won't argue - McDavid + Drai make the Oilers the favorite this series. But the nonsense of that blueline being decent, or the bottom 6 being comparable to what Vancouver has, is laughable.

In terms of actual analysis, I think the big leverage point Tocchet has this series is to reduce the 4th line's ice time significantly at ES, likely into the 5-6 minute range. The Canucks go 3 lines deep that can pressure (when they're on), and its paramount they take advantage of any time McDavid or Drai aren't on the ice. He tried sheltering them a lot with offensive zone faceoffs after icing calls, but I don't think we're afforded that same luxury this series.

Hughes' minutes should probably go into the 25+ minute range, even if it means double shifting him with Cole, Zadorov, etc. (please not with Myers, that always goes poorly). His transition game will be paramount, and his speed makes him one of the few guys who can skate with McDavid without taking a penalty.
Click to expand...
The analysis is...strange. Ultimately, it's probably correct even if it doesn't get there in the right way. The Oilers are absolutely favoured in a matchup where we don't have Demko and EP40 is missing.
 
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Vector said:
Dom L’s system has Hughes rated the same as Bouchard. How he forms his thoughts on hockey are worthless and actively make The Athletic that reference them worse.

Now this current rating system is based on one round so it’s even noisier and less informative than his usually useless rankings.

He doesn’t seem to actually understand hockey beyond numbers in his model. I’m continuously surprised how nascent public hockey analytics, and stubborn, still is. Nowhere near as informative or understanding of how context matters as other sports.
Click to expand...
I don't think it's based on one round. It's mostly using regular season data to feed into the model. Dom has made some adjustments recently (factoring in QoC more heavily in how they affect the player ratings), so he has tried to quantitatively adjust more for contextual factors.

There are definitely things to disagree with on Dom's model, as there is with any model, or literally any person's opinion. But his evaluation of each team is largely in line with the sportsbooks prices. If he was really way off, sharp bettors would be slamming money on the Canucks and pushing their implied probability up.

If we think Dom is very wrong, there is opportunity to make a lot of money, given the sportsbook odds. And have a very fun 2nd round.
 
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