Washington REALLY helped by Kempny trade

[crazyhawk]

No joke, Being There is one of my all-time favorite books. Solid reference.

Awesome book for sure! And the movie wasn't too shabby too!!

 

[ChiHawks10]

Carlson gets Subban money - zero doubt about it...he isn't under $9mil per year, that ship has sailed...

people can say they don't want Carlson at that money, but if we didn't have Seabs under contract, I would venture a guess that says the majority of this board would be drooling to get Carlson..he is having a career year, but has been a 50 point player if playing a full 80 games the past few years...

I'm still absolutely blown away at people wanting to tie down the cap $$$ to another massive, long-term deal, honestly. Whether that is Tavares, Carlson, EK, etc. I have zero desire to sign any of the big FAs that will command 8-9m over 7-9 years. None at all. Massive contracts to aging players should be a huge red flag to any Hawks fan. The funny thing is... those same people who want one of these big FA splash players will be the exact same ones bitching in a year or two about how the deal is terrible, and the player is seriously overpaid, and killing the Hawks.

Carlson is going to be 29 next season. It would be a giant mistake to sign him to a large cap hit/long-term deal, and even if there was no Seabs, I would highly recommend the Hawks avoid him. It's Seabrook all over again. If the Hawks signed Carlson to a large deal, kiss this team goodbye for the next 5-7 years. You'd have close to half your cap tied up in 4 players - Toews, Kane, Seabs, Carlson.

So mortgage the next decade for one more Cup? Nah... I'd rather build this team with youth and talent, and go on another 5-7 year run.

 

[coolhand]

Kempny is a solid #4 in my book. He is looking comfortable in the Trotz system. Washington made a statement last night. Let's see how the bolts respond.

Let's not forget how Hawks management was so mad about the sweep by the Preds, and things were going to change. Well they sure did, and got far worse. Nevermind the injury to Crawford, the team stunk. And I lay that right at the feet of Q. Another year of his indifference ay whether the team wins or not is intolerable. Reminds me of Pulford when he was coach.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I'm still absolutely blown away at people wanting to tie down the cap $$$ to another massive, long-term deal, honestly. Whether that is Tavares, Carlson, EK, etc. I have zero desire to sign any of the big FAs that will command 8-9m over 7-9 years. None at all. Massive contracts to aging players should be a huge red flag to any Hawks fan. The funny thing is... those same people who want one of these big FA splash players will be the exact same ones *****ing in a year or two about how the deal is terrible, and the player is seriously overpaid, and killing the Hawks.

Carlson is going to be 29 next season. It would be a giant mistake to sign him to a large cap hit/long-term deal, and even if there was no Seabs, I would highly recommend the Hawks avoid him. It's Seabrook all over again. If the Hawks signed Carlson to a large deal, kiss this team goodbye for the next 5-7 years. You'd have close to half your cap tied up in 4 players - Toews, Kane, Seabs, Carlson.

So mortgage the next decade for one more Cup? Nah... I'd rather build this team with youth and talent, and go on another 5-7 year run.

If the Hawks are rebuilding then tear the whole thing down and shop everybody. Reality is they can still compete with a new coach and some shrewd moves to fix the D and add a couple depth forwards. They have the picks and cap space to do it. I trust Bowman more than Q at this point. But if we can sign Tavares at a similar cap hit to Toews and Kane then do it and bottom the f*** out in 3-5 years.

I personally do not want to see the Hawks sit on 10m+ cap space while a guy like Kane is still elite and Cat/Schmaltz are trending in that direction as well. Reload and go for it. If they stand pat then they’re in for a rough year.

I don’t think they’ll ultimately sign Tavares but I expect the Hawks to try and make a big splash this summer. They’ll be connected to a lot of players imo. That includes Carlsson.

 

[ChiHawks10]

If the Hawks are rebuilding then tear the whole thing down and shop everybody. Reality is they can still compete with a new coach and some shrewd moves to fix the D and add a couple depth forwards. They have the picks and cap space to do it. I trust Bowman more than Q at this point. But if we can sign Tavares at a similar cap hit to Toews and Kane then do it and bottom the **** out in 3-5 years.

I personally do not want to see the Hawks sit on 10m+ cap space while a guy like Kae is still elite and Cat/Schmaltz are trending that direction as well. Reload and go for it. If they stand pat then they’re in for a rough year.

I'm not saying to sit on the cap space, but I would really prefer the team doesn't "bottom the f*** out". Teams can be rebuilt without having to do that, with FA/trade moves, a little luck, and quality scouting/drafting. There's no reason to tear it down and shop everybody to do a full rebuild. You're aware that's at least 3-5 years of absolutely terrible Hawks hockey to watch, right?

If they sign a huge cap player right now to a long-term deal, it's not bottoming out in 3-5 years. You're talking one year before destruction of the current roster, and future core. There are guys on the team who will command large raises. And soon. Cat's contract expires in 19-20, and he'll be due for a huge payday. Schmaltz will need a raise after this season, and will get a sizable one also. Duclair, Hayden, and Hino need contracts right now. Dylan Sikura is an RFA after this upcoming season, as is Ejdsell and Forsling, and we likely want to retain all three. Delia will need a new contract after this upcoming season, especially if he's part of the future in net. As would Forsberg. I would expect they move on from him, though. There's absolutely no point trying to go all in on this season and win one more Cup, mortgaging the next decade of hockey to do it... None. At all. It would be idiotic on the Hawks part, as an organization.

You sign one of these big players in FA this offseason, you better win the Cup this upcoming season. Because this thing starts to bottom out as soon as 19-20 if that's the case. And there's no doubt about it.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I don’t think Hawks are in danger of losing Schmaltz or Cat if they go after Tavares. Cap will probably be 85m+ after next year. They can move Anisimov to pay for Schmaltz raise. They very likely have a future compliance buyout in their back pocket for Seabrook. And Crawford’s money could be off the books at any time given he’s only due a few more years and could be an LTIR candidate if his injuries persist. They could also find a taker for Saad’s 6m or Murphy ~3.9m to pay for Cat as well. They’ll be fine. I rather them spend the entire 10mil on Tavares than 4 on De Haan, 2 on a backup goalie, 3 on a depth forward etc.

 

[BobbyJet]

So mortgage the next decade for one more Cup? Nah... I'd rather build this team with youth and talent, and go on another 5-7 year run.

Either way, you're dreaming. This team is nowhere close to where you may think they are. Certainly not with the current coach/GM.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I can understand saying no to Carlsson with Joker, Mitchell and potential #8 overall coming. But to pass up on Tavares and list a bunch of guys like Hino, Duclair, Sikura, Edjsell?, Delia as guys we need to pay as well?....Talking a guy in JT thats a world class player at a premium position. If Tavares says come sign me for 10m you tell all those guys you listed excluding Cat and Schmaltz to pack their bags. And then you tell Saad and Murphy to get their bags out of the closet just in case.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I can understand saying no to Carlsson with Joker, Mitchell and potential #8 overall coming. But to pass up on Tavares and list a bunch of guys like Hino, Duclair, Sikura, Edjsell?, Delia as guys we need to pay as well?....Talking a guy in JT thats a world class player at a premium position. If Tavares says come sign me for 10m you tell all those guys you listed excluding Cat and Schmaltz to pack their bags. And then you tell Saad and Murphy to get their bags out of the closet just in case.

Yes, because any team ever wins the Cup with one or two good lines and trash for a supporting cast? You need great depth. Without it, you're in and out of the POs real quick. You don't let your entire bottom 6 of quality NHLers walk for one player...We'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Yes, because any team ever wins the Cup with one or two good lines and trash for a supporting cast? You need great depth. Without it, you're in and out of the POs real quick. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

Who says the depth will be shit though? A team with Tavares with an 85m cap ceiling will be better than what they have now. Can make some very realistic assumptions to retain the important guys you listed. Move Anisimov and give his AAV to Schmaltz, he goes from 925k to ~5.5m per, extremely likely. Next, Cat. He’s due in two years and will be restricted. Organic cap growth will be a few million. Crawford, Saad and Murphy will account for ~16m that can be moved. Seabrook could receive a compliance buyout. That’s ~23m in cap that could be realistically removed. Hinostroza, Hayden and Sikura you deal with down the road. Hossa will have one year remaining so that could be gone too although net I don’t think it makes a difference.

My point is they can add Tavares and retain the essential pieces, Cat and Schmaltz. No idea what would happen with Hino and Sikura but that’s not an issue at the moment.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Who says the depth will be **** though? A team with Tavares with an 85m cap ceiling will be better than what they have now. Can make some very realistic assumptions to retain the important guys you listed. Move Anisimov and give his AAV to Schmaltz, he goes from 925k to ~5.5m per, extremely likely. Next, Cat. He’s due in two years and will be restricted. Organic cap growth will be a few million. Crawford, Saad and Murphy will account for ~16m that can be moved. Seabrook could receive a compliance buyout. That’s ~23m in cap that could be realistically removed. Hinostroza, Hayden and Sikura you deal with down the road.

That’s if you’re lucky. I think at this point, Schmaltz’ agent can already make the case for a 6x6 deal. If the contract isn’t signed this offseason, that price likely only goes up next season.

Also, DeBrincat is already looking like he will cost $6million+ once his deal is up.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Who says the depth will be **** though? A team with Tavares with an 85m cap ceiling will be better than what they have now. Can make some very realistic assumptions to retain the important guys you listed. Move Anisimov and give his AAV to Schmaltz, he goes from 925k to ~5.5m per, extremely likely. Next, Cat. He’s due in two years and will be restricted. Organic cap growth will be a few million. Crawford, Saad and Murphy will account for ~16m that can be moved. Seabrook could receive a compliance buyout. That’s ~23m in cap that could be realistically removed. Hinostroza, Hayden and Sikura you deal with down the road.

How? Hino and Hayden need contracts right now. Move AA... if someone wants him(and this is limited by his modified NTC). Deal Murphy? He's likely part of the D corps until his contract is up. They have nobody to play defense, and Murphy is a solid top 4 guy, who plays D with no Murphy? You'll have Keith, Seabs, Oesterle, Gustafsson, Forsling, Murphy, Rutta as of right now. With no Murphy, you have two top 4 D in Keith and Forsling, most likely. That team is going nowhere with that D unless guys take huge steps forward. Cat... yeah, he's RFA, but he'll also likely have 3x 30+ goal seasons under his belt by the time that expires, and likely 2x 60+ point seasons. Cat is likely a 7-9m cap hit coming off his RFA, as bridge deals have basically disappeared in the league at this point. Schmaltz is likely going to command 6x6...

I think this is all pipe dreams and hoping for a lot to go right, and absolutely nothing to go wrong... I mean, you're literally speaking to dream scenarios. And still losing your entire supporting cast of quality bottom 6 players, for Tavares... This would be horrendous management by Bowman, and if it happens, kiss this team goodbye, and kiss Stan goodbye. Unless that is your goal... it's just dumb.

And 85m cap ceiling? Where you getting that? Because it's not going up 10m this offseason. It will be anywhere from 75m-82m. I doubt it finishes on the high end of that, though. I expect it likely falls somewhere around 79-80m.

No offense, but I'm damn glad you're not the GM.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

That’s if you’re lucky. I think at this point, Schmaltz’ agent can already make the case for a 6x6 deal. If the contract isn’t signed this offseason, that price likely only goes up next season.

Also, DeBrincat is already looking like he will cost $6million+ once his deal is up.

Laid out pretty clearly how they pay those two. Also have Rutta making 2.3m that can be gone yesterday if needed.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Laid out pretty clearly how they pay those two. Also have Rutta making 2.3m that can be gone yesterday if needed.

Okay, I was just pointing out that you’re being too optimistic with your numbers. Schmaltz and DeBrincat will likely get paid more than any of us are expecting.

You could argue both are already worth more than Saad was when he came off his ELC.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

How? Hino and Hayden need contracts right now. Move AA... if someone wants him(and this is limited by his modified NTC). Deal Murphy? He's likely part of the D corps until his contract is up. They have nobody to play defense, and Murphy is a solid top 4 guy, who plays D with no Murphy? You'll have Keith, Seabs, Oesterle, Gustafsson, Forsling, Murphy, Rutta as of right now. With no Murphy, you have two top 4 D in Keith and Forsling, most likely. Cat... yeah, he's RFA, but he'll also likely have 3x 30+ goal seasons under his belt by the time that expires. Cat is likely a 7-9m cap hit coming off his RFA, as bridge deals have basically disappeared in the league at this point. Schmaltz is likely going to command 6x6...

I think this is all pipe dreams and hoping for a lot to go right, and absolutely nothing to go wrong... I mean, you're literally speaking to dream scenarios. And still losing your entire supporting cast of quality bottom 6 players, for Tavares... This would be horrendous management by Bowman, and if it happens, kiss this team goodbye, and kiss Stan goodbye. Unless that is your goal... it's just dumb.

And 85m cap ceiling? Where you getting that? Because it's not going up 10m this offseason. It will be anywhere from 75m-82m. I doubt it finishes on the high end of that, though. I expect it likely falls somewhere around 79-80m

Hayden and Hino are worth a collective 3.5-4m max on their next deal. And that’s being generous. If the Hawks take Bouchard, Dobson or Boqvist and with Joker coming they can spare Murphy and his ~4m to play 3rd pair minutes. Seabrook is likely to be gone if there is another lockout. Forsling next deal won’t be worth much. I don’t understand the concern about maintaining a team that was absolutely horrible last year. Especially when I laid out all the cap they can clear. Saad and Anisimov out to pay for Schmaltz and Cat are about as clear as day to happen if needed.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Either way, you're dreaming. This team is nowhere close to where you may think they are. Certainly not with the current coach/GM.

I'd argue you're terribly underrating the current talent on the roster. Coaching is a big, big deal.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

You said Schmaltz is worth 6m. So we’re talking 500k there. Cap growth alone in 2 years will account for that. Cat might be worth a bit more than 6. Saad makes 6, again, very realistic outcome if needed to fit in Tavares. And Crawford would be q year away from UFA status and 36 years old? They could probably retain to trade him if he’s still a quality goaltender. Possibly LTIR if he never finds his game after the injuries and wants to hang em up.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Hayden and Hino are worth a collective 3.5-4m max on their next deal. And that’s being generous. If the Hawks take Bouchard, Dobson or Boqvist and with Joker coming they can spare Murphy and his ~4m to play 3rd pair minutes. Seabrook is likely to be gone if there is another lockout. Forsling next deal won’t be worth much. I don’t understand the concern about maintaining a team that was absolutely horrible last year. Especially when I laid out all the cap they can clear. Saad and Anisimov out to pay for Schmaltz and Cat are about as clear as day to happen if needed.

Hoping that they're NHL ready coming out of the draft is a terrible idea. Seabs wouldn't be gone until 20-21 with a compliance buyout, I believe, and that's a huge if on getting one. Forsling, depending on this season's performance, may command more than you think. That's also expecting Joker or someone else to actually make the jump this upcoming season.

The team wasn't horrible last year. They're coached at a disgustingly bad level. Coaching this season accounted for probably 10-15 points in the standings. As did terrible goaltending. Basically a playoff team or not...

AA has a modified no trade clause... he has to agree to go to one of 10 teams that he makes a list for, and those teams also need his services. Also, Saad moving out to clear money for Cat or Schmaltz is a lateral move at this point, and serves no purpose. He's like 25 years old and had a bad year... which all players have.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Hayden and Hino are worth a collective 3.5-4m max on their next deal. And that’s being generous. If the Hawks take Bouchard, Dobson or Boqvist and with Joker coming they can spare Murphy and his ~4m to play 3rd pair minutes. Seabrook is likely to be gone if there is another lockout. Forsling next deal won’t be worth much. I don’t understand the concern about maintaining a team that was absolutely horrible last year. Especially when I laid out all the cap they can clear. Saad and Anisimov out to pay for Schmaltz and Cat are about as clear as day to happen if needed.

It’d be a huge mistake to bank on a hypothetical get out of jail card for Seabrook. You cannot plan on that happening until you know for sure, that’s how you get royally screwed.

Also, Schmaltz and DeBrinct combined are definitely going to cost more than $10.55 million, so you can’t assume moving Saad and Anisimov alone pays for them.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Moving Saad to keep Schmaltz or Cat is not a lateral move based on production. Anisimov can be moved. There are literally people posting in this forum about Hawks getting a late 1st or 2nd for him next month. Now we’re debating if they can move him at all?

 

[RememberTheRoar]

You said Schmaltz is worth 6m. So we’re talking 500k there. Cap growth alone in 2 years will account for that. Cat might be worth a bit more than 6. Saad makes 6, again, very realistic outcome if needed to fit in Tavares. And Crawford would be q year away from UFA status and 36 years old? They could probably retain to trade him if he’s still a quality goaltender. Possibly LTIR if he never finds his game after the injuries and wants to hang em up.

You’re assuming Crawford’s $6 million cap hit becomes $0. That’s not how it’s going to work, you need a goalie, and that will cost at least $4 million. If you want a good goalie, it’s going to cost at least $6 million.

 

[ChiHawks10]

It’d be a huge mistake to bank on a hypothetical get out of jail card for Seabrook. You cannot plan on that happening until you know for sure, that’s how you get royally screwed.

Also, Schmaltz and DeBrinct combined are definitely going to cost more than $10.55 million, so you can’t assume moving Saad and Anisimov alone pays for them.

Getting Anisimov to waive his NTC to go to a team not on his list... or banking on a team he lists actually needs him, and wants to move assets for him...

And getting rid of a 25 year old top 6 player because of a down season...

 

[ChiHawks10]

Moving Saad to keep Schmaltz or Cat is not a lateral move based on production. Anisimov can be moved. There are literally people posting in this forum about Hawks getting a late 1st or 2nd for him next month. Now we’re debating if they can move him at all?

Are you blind, or just refusing to read it? He has a no trade clause. There's a lot more to moving him than you think... Jesus. It's like talking to a brick wall at this point.

And yes... it's a lateral move based upon production. Saad is a typical 50 point player, who had a bad year. Schmaltz and Cat were both 50 point players this season... It's the damn definition of lateral move with their production at this stage of their careers...

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I'm thinking Anisimov gets moved soon. Just don't know what for.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. NTC btw. Can’t trade him btw.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Are you blind? He has a no trade clause. There's a lot more to moving him than you think... Jesus. It's like talking to a brick wall at this point.

And yes... it's a lateral move based upon production. Saad is a typical 50 point player, who had a bad year. Schmaltz and Cat were both 50 point players this season...

I’d disagree with you there. While they were both 50 point players this season, I think they will each end up being more impactful offensively than Saad.