W Beckett Sennecke - Oshawa Generals, OHL (2024, 3rd, ANA)

[Hockey Duckie]

“USHL level of competition”. USHL is basically equivalent to CHL these days.

You wanted reasons and I gave you reasons. Trying to counter with "USHL is basically equivalent to the CHL these days" is flaccid statement that you provide no support. Out of all of the names you provided, the little 5'11 CHL prospect Luchanko was drafted higher than all the taller talents out of the USHL. Luchanko, just like Sennecke, had a massive jump up in the actual draft. Yet, you have no qualms about Luchanko.

MyNHLdraft Final Mock draft

In case you cannot identify the names quickly enough, here are the MyNHLdraft mock draft positions from the names you pulled:

10. Sennecke (OHL)
18. Hage (USHL)
19. Connelly (USHL)
20. Luchanko (OHL)
24. Greentree (OHL... heavy skater)
29. Boisvert (USHL)

TSN's Bob McKenzie's Final ranking
(Stat column key: Position, Height, Weight, Games played, Goals scored, Points scored)

Apparently, Sennecke was already a higher rated prospect over all the names you displayed in final mock or rankings of MyNHLdraft and TSN's Bob McKenzie. McKenzie creates his rankings through verified scouts. Your assessment of prospects is off.

 

[Garbageyuk]

You wanted reasons and I gave you reasons. Trying to counter with "USHL is basically equivalent to the CHL these days" is flaccid statement that you provide no support. Out of all of the names you provided, the little 5'11 CHL prospect Luchanko was drafted higher than all the taller talents out of the USHL. Luchanko, just like Sennecke, had a massive jump up in the actual draft. Yet, you have no qualms about Luchanko.

MyNHLdraft Final Mock draft
View attachment 893828

In case you cannot identify the names quickly enough, here are the MyNHLdraft mock draft positions from the names you pulled:

10. Sennecke (OHL)
18. Hage (USHL)
19. Connelly (USHL)
20. Luchanko (OHL)
24. Greentree (OHL... heavy skater)
29. Boisvert (USHL)

TSN's Bob McKenzie's Final ranking
(Stat column key: Position, Height, Weight, Games played, Goals scored, Points scored)
View attachment 893835

Apparently, Sennecke was already a higher rated prospect over all the names you displayed in final mock or rankings of MyNHLdraft and TSN's Bob McKenzie. McKenzie creates his rankings through verified scouts. Your assessment of prospects is off.

“Trying to counter”? This is basically a consensus opinion. USHL has been getting stronger for like the last 2 decades. It isn’t 1999 anymore. You being ignorant of that fact isn’t my problem.

And all you did by posting those rankings is show that the Ducks did in fact reach for Sennecke, and he is much closer to the group of players that I mentioned than he is to where he was drafted.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

“Trying to counter”? This is basically a consensus opinion. USHL has been getting stronger for like the last 2 decades. It isn’t 1999 anymore. You being ignorant of that fact isn’t my problem.

And all you did by posting those rankings is show that the Ducks did in fact reach for Sennecke, and he is much closer to the group of players that I mentioned than he is to where he was drafted.

Stronger compared to itself, but still not on the same level. You're still trying to rationalize your stance with poetry? I can also say, "High school programs are getting more talent drafted in the late 1st and early 2nd round recently. They're stronger and are equivalent to the CHL." It's true talents are getting drafted earlier, but they're not on the CHL level.

Your talent assessment is off. The tier talent after Celebrini was 2-8 for some and 2-12 for others. Pronman's tier rankings has tier 6 as bubble top or middle of the lineup player. He has Sennecke ranked in tier 4 (bubble All-Star or top line player) with Catton and Demidov.

I brought receipts and you keep using poetry to rationalize your stance. I even used your own poetry (list of players you "feel" are better) to identify your ranking was completely misplaced and that one of your listed players was an OHL'er who leapfrogged over all of the USHL players you mentioned with Luchanko jumping 8 or 9 spots in the draft, 8 for MyNHLdraft and 9 for McKenzie. Yet, you're begging to believe you now that you think being pre-ranked 10th or 11th is the same for being pre-ranked in the 20s.

Why believe you when you've been disproven time and time again with receipts? Why believe you when you don't even accept your own list of players than an OHL'er leapfrogged over all the USHL players you listed? If you cannot accept your own list with conviction, then why should anyone believe a word you say? Luchanko jumped 8 or 9 spots in the draft and you have no problem with it. Sennecke jumped 7 or 8 spots in the draft, but you have a problem with it. Both are OHL'ers.

Substance over poetry. Yeah, you'll never admit your flaws in this argument b/c poetry lacks receipts of substance.

 

[MMC]

The problem is assuming other 18-year-olds don’t, which is what the other guy did. And no, he never specified he was only speaking about physical tools.

We are all very sorry this happened to you

 

[Garbageyuk]

Stronger compared to itself, but still not on the same level. You're still trying to rationalize your stance with poetry? I can also say, "High school programs are getting more talent drafted in the late 1st and early 2nd round recently. They're stronger and are equivalent to the CHL." It's true talents are getting drafted earlier, but they're not on the CHL level.

Your talent assessment is off. The tier talent after Celebrini was 2-8 for some and 2-12 for others. Pronman's tier rankings has tier 6 as bubble top or middle of the lineup player. He has Sennecke ranked in tier 4 (bubble All-Star or top line player) with Catton and Demidov.

I brought receipts and you keep using poetry to rationalize your stance. I even used your own poetry (list of players you "feel" are better) to identify your ranking was completely misplaced and that one of your listed players was an OHL'er who leapfrogged over all of the USHL players you mentioned with Luchanko jumping 8 or 9 spots in the draft, 8 for MyNHLdraft and 9 for McKenzie. Yet, you're begging to believe you now that you think being pre-ranked 10th or 11th is the same for being pre-ranked in the 20s.

Why believe you when you've been disproven time and time again with receipts? Why believe you when you don't even accept your own list of players than an OHL'er leapfrogged over all the USHL players you listed? If you cannot accept your own list with conviction, then why should anyone believe a word you say? Luchanko jumped 8 or 9 spots in the draft and you have no problem with it. Sennecke jumped 7 or 8 spots in the draft, but you have a problem with it. Both are OHL'ers.

Substance over poetry. Yeah, you'll never admit your flaws in this argument b/c poetry lacks receipts of substance.

I never disputed where he was ranked specifically, so you can post as many rankings as you want.

My question was what has he done to warrant the ranking, above guys like Greentree, Boisvert, Hage, Luchanko, and Connelly? Greentree and Luchanko played in the same league as Sennecke did, and put up superior and identical production, respectively, with less help on worse teams. Hage, Boisvert, and Connelly all put up superior numbers in a league that is basically identical in terms of quality (more on that later).

Your knee jerk reaction to just post pre draft lists and rankings, only shows your inability to put forth an argument of your own. I’m not saying he’s necessarily worse than any of the above players; I’m saying he’s closer to those guys in terms of performance than he is to guys like Lindstrom, Demidov, Iginla, or Catton.

Yes, I know he was drafted ahead of them. ANA is obviously placing heavy emphasis on intangible things like potential and “room for growth” or whatever, rather than performance with the selection. But to me, that’s a risky gamble. Thats the rationale that led to the aforementioned Kotkaniemi, Hayton, and Hickey selections.

To be fair, it’s also the rationale behind Winnipeg’s selection of Scheifele, which worked out pretty good for them. How it ultimately turns out for the Ducks is anyone’s guess, but the list of duds with this type of reach pick is long, and it doesn’t work out more often than not.

Regarding the USHL vs CHL issue, you’re misinformed:

Source: NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models: Building the NHL Equivalency Model (Part 2)

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I never disputed where he was ranked specifically, so you can post as many rankings as you want.

My question was what has he done to warrant the ranking, above guys like Greentree, Boisvert, Hage, Luchanko, and Connelly? Greentree and Luchanko played in the same league as Sennecke did, and put up superior and identical production, respectively, with less help on worse teams. Hage, Boisvert, and Connelly all put up superior numbers in a league that is basically identical in terms of quality (more on that later).

Your knee jerk reaction to just post pre draft lists and rankings, only shows your inability to put forth an argument of your own. I’m not saying he’s necessarily worse than any of the above players; I’m saying he’s closer to those guys in terms of performance than he is to guys like Lindstrom, Demidov, Iginla, or Catton.

Yes, I know he was drafted ahead of them. ANA is obviously placing heavy emphasis on intangible things like potential and “room for growth” or whatever, rather than performance with the selection. But to me, that’s a risky gamble. Thats the rationale that led to the aforementioned Kotkaniemi, Hayton, and Hickey selections.

To be fair, it’s also the rationale behind Winnipeg’s selection of Scheifele, which worked out pretty good for them. How it ultimately turns out for the Ducks is anyone’s guess, but the list of duds with this type of reach pick is long, and it doesn’t work out more often than not.

Regarding the USHL vs CHL issue, you’re misinformed:

View attachment 893889
Source: NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models: Building the NHL Equivalency Model (Part 2)

We were discussing 8 players (according to madden on Monday prior to the draft)… we don’t and prob won’t ever really know why we went with sennecke over other guys…. I think our youth+ pool put us in a comfortable position to take a home run swing on a guy like sennecke.

He does have a unique blend of skill/size and If be can put some weight/muscle on his frame has a ton of potential.

I think you’re asking questions that arnt really relevant to us as duck fans, sennecke is the guy we chose….. the draft is old news…. And we’re looking forward to seeing what he can become. Most of us thought it was a reach at the time of the draft. But it’s our reality now and we’re going to support the pick and hope he meets the vision our scouts/pv have for him.

I’m not super big on comparing to guys that did or didn’t pan out, I try to take each prospect as an individual circumstance…. He isn’t shciefele, nor is he kotkaniemi, hayton or hickey…. He’s sennecke and we have no clue what he will become, just like Montreal fans have no clue what hage will become. Maybe it’ll end up a bad pick in 3 years, we’ll just have to wait and see like you said.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

HF scouts laughed everytime the Ducks "reached" for the big late riser

Lindholm, McTavish, Carlsson and now Sennecke

Has worked out every time so far. We'll see about Sennecke but his upside is immense.

Isn’t it a little early to say one year later that a player worked out? Not like Carlsson absolutely lit up the league.

Don’t disagree with the other two examples, to be clear.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Beckett Sennecke, qualified for the OHL 1/2 Final page 2, player completely ignored

Beckett Sennecke after a few more matches, page 23, most highlighted player.

Even though it's the same guy, with the same level

This is what I come back to with Sennecke.

He wasn’t likely to be a first round pick halfway through the season, Ritchie who is probably the best player in the OHL returns from injury, is on a line with Sennecke, his totals shoot up during the regular season and playoffs, and he makes it up to #3.

I was wrong about some Anaheim picks in the past. I did not like McTavish. That worked out. I’m not going to say I know more than them, but his statistics would seriously worry me for a 3OA. You can’t absolutely flop on that pick and picking a player who had the red flags he did suggests that’s what you might get. It seems like a real “shot in the dark” pick. It could work out, but I think it’s way too risky. I don’t see how the theoretical upside justifies it either. People talk about him like he’s a unicorn. Is he? He’s not 6’10 with amazing puck skills. If it works out you’ll get roughly Matt Boldy. If he works out, maybe you get the third best player in the draft. If it doesn’t, can he keep a regular NHL spot? This was a player talked about as second round until Ritchie returned to the lineup.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

This is what I come back to with Sennecke.

He wasn’t likely to be a first round pick halfway through the season, Ritchie who is probably the best player in the OHL returns from injury, is on a line with Sennecke, his totals shoot up during the regular season and playoffs, and he makes it up to #3.

I was wrong about some Anaheim picks in the past. I did not like McTavish. That worked out. I’m not going to say I know more than them, but his statistics would seriously worry me for a 3OA. You can’t absolutely flop on that pick and picking a player who had the red flags he did suggests that’s what you might get. It seems like a real “shot in the dark” pick. It could work out, but I think it’s way too risky. I don’t see how the theoretical upside justifies it either. People talk about him like he’s a unicorn. Is he? He’s not 6’10 with amazing puck skills. If it works out you’ll get roughly Matt Boldy. If he works out, maybe you get the third best player in the draft. If it doesn’t, can he keep a regular NHL spot? This was a player talked about as second round until Ritchie returned to the lineup.

I'm a lot less hot on Ryder Ritchie than you are. McTavish was a top 10 for me and it was a year where information was missing from the general public. But Sennecke didn't change level because he was selected No. 3, that's obvious.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm a lot less hot on Ryder Ritchie than you are. McTavish was a top 10 for me and it was a year where information was missing from the general public. But Sennecke didn't change level because he was selected No. 3, that's obvious.

Calum Ritchie. His line-mate with Oshawa.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

This is what I come back to with Sennecke.

He wasn’t likely to be a first round pick halfway through the season, Ritchie who is probably the best player in the OHL returns from injury, is on a line with Sennecke, his totals shoot up during the regular season and playoffs, and he makes it up to #3.

I was wrong about some Anaheim picks in the past. I did not like McTavish. That worked out. I’m not going to say I know more than them, but his statistics would seriously worry me for a 3OA. You can’t absolutely flop on that pick and picking a player who had the red flags he did suggests that’s what you might get. It seems like a real “shot in the dark” pick. It could work out, but I think it’s way too risky. I don’t see how the theoretical upside justifies it either. People talk about him like he’s a unicorn. Is he? He’s not 6’10 with amazing puck skills. If it works out you’ll get roughly Matt Boldy. If he works out, maybe you get the third best player in the draft. If it doesn’t, can he keep a regular NHL spot? This was a player talked about as second round until Ritchie returned to the lineup.

So he’s a potential nice compliment piece?

Anaheim has good young centers in zegras carlsson, mctavish and gauthier we need compliments to them.

After watching more of sennecke and seeing him at prospect camp, I’ve warmed up to him more(Buium is the guy I wanted, well levshunov but I figured he wouldn’t be there at 3).

Is it a gamble pick for sure but there is obvious potential in sennecke…. And a ton of room to add muscle/mass to his frame. Would be interesting to see who else we were discussing

Anaheim was never taking a Russian, for better or worse we don’t use high picks on Russians…. I imagine buium was pretty intriguing for us, but LHD we are very deep on.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

You would think Habs fans would be better about it after hearing all the brain dead takes about michkov and rein for the last year

Could still end up looking very poor if Michkov delivers ; so not sure how you can claim those views as brain dead at this juncture

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Calum Ritchie. His line-mate with Oshawa.

Shame on me. My brain didn't even react.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Isn’t it a little early to say one year later that a player worked out? Not like Carlsson absolutely lit up the league.

Don’t disagree with the other two examples, to be clear.

He impressed me a lot more than Fantilli, who HF seemed to think was a tier above Carlsson was a prospect at the time of the draft.

It's not proven beyond a doubt, but I don't think the Ducks are regretting going Carlsson @ 2.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So he’s a potential nice compliment piece?

Anaheim has good young centers in zegras carlsson, mctavish and gauthier we need compliments to them.

After watching more of sennecke and seeing him at prospect camp, I’ve warmed up to him more(Buium is the guy I wanted, well levshunov but I figured he wouldn’t be there at 3).

Is it a gamble pick for sure but there is obvious potential in sennecke…. And a ton of room to add muscle/mass to his frame. Would be interesting to see who else we were discussing

Anaheim was never taking a Russian, for better or worse we don’t use high picks on Russians…. I imagine buium was pretty intriguing for us, but LHD we are very deep on.

With draft picks you have to combine what the ceiling and floor is. Theoretically, Silayev could grow another two inches, improve his puck skills, and then you have a literal taller and probably better version of Chara. But how likely is that? There's a reason he went where he did. If you think you're getting Chara, you take him first. But he may just be Jamie Oleksiak, which is why he goes 10th.

With the pick Anaheim made, there's a ceiling on Sennecke there that's probably pretty good. But can't you say the same for whoever was picked 10th or 15th? I think to not think about the downside with Sennecke is setting yourself up for trouble.

The pick could work out. I don't know, but I think Anaheim fans should at least not feel very confident about how it'll work out, even if they might trust the scouting team and have convinced themselves more and more about what Sennecke could be.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

This is what I come back to with Sennecke.

He wasn’t likely to be a first round pick halfway through the season, Ritchie who is probably the best player in the OHL returns from injury, is on a line with Sennecke, his totals shoot up during the regular season and playoffs, and he makes it up to #3.

I was wrong about some Anaheim picks in the past. I did not like McTavish. That worked out. I’m not going to say I know more than them, but his statistics would seriously worry me for a 3OA. You can’t absolutely flop on that pick and picking a player who had the red flags he did suggests that’s what you might get. It seems like a real “shot in the dark” pick. It could work out, but I think it’s way too risky. I don’t see how the theoretical upside justifies it either. People talk about him like he’s a unicorn. Is he? He’s not 6’10 with amazing puck skills. If it works out you’ll get roughly Matt Boldy. If he works out, maybe you get the third best player in the draft. If it doesn’t, can he keep a regular NHL spot? This was a player talked about as second round until Ritchie returned to the lineup.

He was one of 4 HMs (only a list of 15) for B. McKenzie pre-season ranking in September.

Ranked 14th by Hp.com in November

Ranked 19th in January by McKenzie.

17th by HP.com in January.

Not seeing how he was remotely considered a 2nd rounder by reputable outlets.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Could still end up looking very poor if Michkov delivers ; so not sure how you can claim those views as brain dead at this juncture

Just because an opinion ends up being correct in hindsight does not mean its not a brain dead take.

Speaking in absolutes about 18 year old kids who haven't played a single game for the team that drafted them is a brain dead take.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Just because an opinion ends up being correct in hindsight does not mean its not a brain dead take.

Speaking in absolutes about 18 year old kids who haven't played a single game for the team that drafted them is a brain dead take.

If it ends up being the correct take how Is it brain dead ? Many prefer the upside of Michkov . Not sure what’s so controversial about this opinion

 

[Frank Drebin]

If it ends up being the correct take how Is it brain dead ?

Its fine to prefer the upside of Michkov.

Saying things like Montreal made a huge mistake, before either player plays a game in the NHL, is dumb. How could one possibly know this right now? You'd be speaking out of your ass, which is a dumb take.

Whats even dumber, is singling Reinbacher and Montreal out. If Michkov is the player his fans think that he will be there are 4, possibly 5 other teams that also made huge mistakes.

But anyways, this is a thread about the Ducks and Sennecke.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

With draft picks you have to combine what the ceiling and floor is. Theoretically, Silayev could grow another two inches, improve his puck skills, and then you have a literal taller and probably better version of Chara. But how likely is that? There's a reason he went where he did. If you think you're getting Chara, you take him first. But he may just be Jamie Oleksiak, which is why he goes 10th.

With the pick Anaheim made, there's a ceiling on Sennecke there that's probably pretty good. But can't you say the same for whoever was picked 10th or 15th? I think to not think about the downside with Sennecke is setting yourself up for trouble.

The pick could work out. I don't know, but I think Anaheim fans should at least not feel very confident about how it'll work out, even if they might trust the scouting team and have convinced themselves more and more about what Sennecke could be.

Silayev again was a russian in russia, i dont know that he was realistically an option for us.

I think realistically if we werent taking Demidov, whoever we picked wed be asking the same questions.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Silayev again was a russian in russia, i dont know that he was realistically an option for us.

I think realistically if we werent taking Demidov, whoever we picked wed be asking the same questions.

I'm not even saying the Ducks should've considered Silayev, I'm just using that as a hypothetical example of where you can't only look at upside. There is potential downside to picks also.

There was probably more downside with Sennecke than any pick in the top 10 because he was a very late riser based on upside and some better late season stats. What happens if he doesn't reach his upside and he's closer to the player he was the first half of the season? Well then, you have a second round level prospect and one that may not end up a regular NHL'er. I think that potential outcome is hard to justify with the third pick, which is why I think it was too high of a range for him, but time will tell if the Ducks hit on the pick or not.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I'm not even saying the Ducks should've considered Silayev, I'm just using that as a hypothetical example of where you can't only look at upside. There is potential downside to picks also.

There was probably more downside with Sennecke than any pick in the top 10 because he was a very late riser based on upside and some better late season stats. What happens if he doesn't reach his upside and he's closer to the player he was the first half of the season? Well then, you have a second round level prospect and one that may not end up a regular NHL'er. I think that potential outcome is hard to justify with the third pick, which is why I think it was too high of a range for him, but time will tell if the Ducks hit on the pick or not.

Which is fair and i think most duck fans agree, i think madden(might have been PV) even said something on the lines of being in a position to swing for a homerun... which to me says they understand there was risk on the pick.

 

[57special]

The only way the Sennecke pick makes sense is if he progresses much more than a normal top pick over the next 3-4 years, both physically and skill wise.

He is not a guy who is going to be coming into the league and competing for the Calder in the next two years.

 

[JonathnTaylorTavares]

Beckett Secondroundecke

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The only way the Sennecke pick makes sense is if he progresses much more than a normal top pick over the next 3-4 years, both physically and skill wise.

He is not a guy who is going to be coming into the league and competing for the Calder in the next two years.

Which is fair, and Anaheim was on record saying that they weren’t looking for a guy that was the best now, they were looking for a guy that will be the best in 4-5 years.

But yes it was a bit of a risky pick, and we really won’t know how good this pick is for 2+ years