Blue Jays Discussion: Vladdy named ASG MVP. Draft Over. Now all that's left is the trade deadline

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

Hiraldo has done fairly well but hopefully he can bust out.

Palmer has walked 4 but 6 SO in three innings.

Kirk got pulled yesterday and not playing today so I expect him to get called up.

Yeah, I don't know how the timing worked out, but when I checked the box score after the game and saw he was removed, I assumed it coincided with Jansen leaving the game. Makes sense.

 

[phillipmike]

2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Jays have 8 prospects in FG’s top 100 and 7 in the top 60;

19. Nate Pearson
23. Austin Martin
36. Alek Manoah
41. Gabriel Moreno
48. Simoen Woods-Richardson
55. Orelvis Martinez
57. Alejandro Kirk
87. Jordan Groshans

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[canucksfan]

2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Jays have 8 prospects in FG’s top 100 and 7 in the top 60;

19. Nate Pearson
23. Austin Martin
36. Alek Manoah
41. Gabriel Moreno
48. Simoen Woods-Richardson
55. Orelvis Martinez
57. Alejandro Kirk
87. Jordan Groshans

If Groshans' power improves, which I think it should, he should shoot up the rankings.

 

[Hoverhand]

Goddamnit I hate the Rays so much. They always manage to nickel and dime their way into real talent.

Regardless of how it looks right now, it should be easy to figure out why the Jays were hesitant to commit three years to him.

Even if we completely take out the benefit of hindsight, I can't see how Tanner Roark at 2/22 made sense to management but Taijuan Walker at 3/24 didn't. The term doesn't mean all that much when the dollar number was pretty reasonable. Walker's range of outcomes were pretty safe in terms of performance. While there was a chance of a 2nd TJS, his AAV is low enough that writing off 1 season of that contract would not have been the end of the world.

What frustrates me most is that they gambled with Matz and hoped he would better than Walker at 1/5. They were wrong and deserve to be criticized for it.

 

[SDig14]

For those with knowledge outside of our prospect pool, how good is the package for Cruz? And what would be a Jays equivalent package?

 

[habamillions]

That is quite sad. Oakland and tampa have great teams and yet nobody watches them.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Orelvis finishes today 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a walk. OPS approaching 4 digits now at .994

 

[Canada4Gold]

For those with knowledge outside of our prospect pool, how good is the package for Cruz? And what would be a Jays equivalent package?

Fangraphs has them both at 45 FV. Our only 2 45 FV prospects on fangraphs is Hoglund and Hiraldo. Just looking at fangraphs because I don't know much about other teams pools outside of the Rays being very deep.

 

[The Nemesis]

That is quite sad. Oakland and tampa have great teams and yet nobody watches them.

Not to entirely excuse the fanbases, but it's my understanding that a) Oakland Coliseum is a dump that was never meant for baseball and the A's have been fighting for years to get municipal government approval to build a new stadium somewhere because they need it and b) the Trop is kind of a dump and also out in the middle of nowhere a fair distance outside of Tampa Bay proper. So in both cases there are some extenuating circumstances.

Though perhaps less so for Tampa Bay because they've been good for a while and in general it's always seemed that Florida just isn't that interested in baseball given how piss-poor the Marlins draw as well (even when they win)

 

[ryno23]

Not to entirely excuse the fanbases, but it's my understanding that a) Oakland Coliseum is a dump that was never meant for baseball and the A's have been fighting for years to get municipal government approval to build a new stadium somewhere because they need it and b) the Trop is kind of a dump and also out in the middle of nowhere a fair distance outside of Tampa Bay proper. So in both cases there are some extenuating circumstances.

Though perhaps less so for Tampa Bay because they've been good for a while and in general it's always seemed that Florida just isn't that interested in baseball given how piss-poor the Marlins draw as well (even when they win)

Floridians don't really care about baseball. Spring training sites make huge money from fans flocking from the north to watch their favorite team and most are snowbirds who live in those towns and go to games.

Floridians are not really baseball fans per se. They should have never gotten expansion teams they should have been giving to place like Nashville, Charlotte, Portland, Montreal, Buffalo who would come out and watch games

 

[dredeye]

That is quite sad. Oakland and tampa have great teams and yet nobody watches them.

TB apparently has huge tv ratings. Their park is the problem

 

[TF97]

TB apparently has huge tv ratings. Their park is the problem

As someone who has been to the Trop, I can confirm that the main issue with the stadium is its location. The location issues range from the stadium itself being tricky to get to/being quite a bit outside of Tampa, horrible traffic, and there being absolutely nothing around the stadium. Honestly though, I didn’t mind the Trop once inside and didn’t find it nearly as dreary as it comes across on TV. If the Trop was in a better location I could see it being half functional.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Goddamnit I hate the Rays so much. They always manage to nickel and dime their way into real talent.



Even if we completely take out the benefit of hindsight, I can't see how Tanner Roark at 2/22 made sense to management but Taijuan Walker at 3/24 didn't. The term doesn't mean all that much when the dollar number was pretty reasonable. Walker's range of outcomes were pretty safe in terms of performance. While there was a chance of a 2nd TJS, his AAV is low enough that writing off 1 season of that contract would not have been the end of the world.

What frustrates me most is that they gambled with Matz and hoped he would better than Walker at 1/5. They were wrong and deserve to be criticized for it.

Bingo. We're also talking about a 28-year old with top prospect-level stuff, who just needed to stay healthy. That's the kind of gamble you want to take (an upside gamble), rather than shelling out for mediocrity like Tannar Roark.

Heck, the Jays made a risky multi-year offer to unproven Ha-Seong Kim, at slightly more money for more term (5 years according to journalist Daniel Kim), at a position we were already deep at. This whole, the Jays had plenty of reason not to sign him is bullshit. We're talking 7.3 million a year for a 28-year old with upside. We've already spent more than that for other risky players that aren't even playing (Yamaguchi, Yates, Chatwood), and we'll probably waste as much over the next 2 years without batting an eye-lash, cause it's only f***ing 7.3 million!

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Another young catcher in the system hoping not to be forgotten: Javier D'Orazio.

39pa .351/.385/.514 1hr 6rbi 1(2b) 1(3b) 2bb 12so - 47%cs

 

[Discoverer]

Bingo. We're also talking about a 28-year old with top prospect-level stuff, who just needed to stay healthy. That's the kind of gamble you want to take (an upside gamble), rather than shelling out for mediocrity like Tannar Roark.

Heck, the Jays made a risky multi-year offer to unproven Ha-Seong Kim, at slightly more money for more term (5 years according to journalist Daniel Kim), at a position we were already deep at. This whole, the Jays had plenty of reason not to sign him is bullshit. We're talking 7.3 million a year for a 28-year old with upside. We've already spent more than that for other risky players that aren't even playing (Yamaguchi, Yates, Chatwood), and we'll probably waste as much over the next 2 years without batting an eye-lash, cause it's only f***ing 7.3 million!

There were plenty of reasons to sign him, and I thought the contract was reasonable. But it's not like they passed on him to sign guys like Tanner Roark (which is a comparison that makes no sense in this context). They gave his potential roster spot to a couple of 29 year olds with top prospect level stuff. They were going for the upside/potential play just as much as they would have by signing Walker.

Outside of the ERA, Walker's peripherals suggested a back-end starter last year. That's fine, and still worth it at the rate he signed for, but he was about the same risk/reward as Ray and Matz for more money.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

There were plenty of reasons to sign him, and I thought the contract was reasonable. But it's not like they passed on him to sign guys like Tanner Roark (which is a comparison that makes no sense in this context). They gave his potential roster spot to a couple of 29 year olds with top prospect level stuff. They were going for the upside/potential play just as much as they would have by signing Walker.

Outside of the ERA, Walker's peripherals suggested a back-end starter last year. That's fine, and still worth it at the rate he signed for, but he was about the same risk/reward as Ray and Matz for more money.

It makes plenty of sense because the issue you lead with was financial risk aka money. 7.3million barely gets you a 1WAR player in analytics terms. That's fine that they signed Ray and traded for Matz, but Matz at million was even more of a risk given his own injury history and coming off a bad year,

Also having Matz should not have precluded them from signing Walker, anymore than having Stripling did. It's not like we were deep in starting pitching. We had two sure-thing starters in Ryu and Ray and then a bunch of potential. Even if you expected him to be a 5th starter going forward, we could have used the depth, and there aren't many decent veteran (post-arb) fifth starters making less than 7.3 mill. This isn't even in hindsight imo. A bunch of us liked Walker, especially when we found out how little he signed for.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Not making a comparison in terms of potential or anything, but does Orelvis open stance (only the lower half, and less exaggerated of course) kind of remind anyone else of former Blue Jays' third baseman Tony Batista? The guy was pull-heavy and terribly inconsistent, but man that power was prodigious when he really got into a hot streak.

 

[weems]

Fangraphs has us at 29.2% to make the playoffs.

So whats the play here? Make some significant moves at the deadline? Make some minor moves that dont involve giving up any of our top prospects and hoping for the best?

I've liked alot of things Shapiro/Atkins have done but this next phase of decisions will really determine how good we can become.

 

[GoonieFace]

Fangraphs has us at 29.2% to make the playoffs.

So whats the play here? Make some significant moves at the deadline? Make some minor moves that dont involve giving up any of our top prospects and hoping for the best?

I've liked alot of things Shapiro/Atkins have done but this next phase of decisions will really determine how good we can become.

I think the best thing would be to add pieces with control. I don’t think they will be in the rental market.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Muston Atthews]

 

[TGB]

How Roark got 12 million is a headscratcher. The guy's career numbers pitching in gigantic ballparks in the NL looked awful. Of course he was going to be lit up in the East.

If Groshans' power improves, which I think it should, he should shoot up the rankings.

Oh, it's a safe bet. The guy is tall and looks pretty solid and he's only 21, but still hasn't seen a proper professional season. Yet he's already figured out the hitting side of things.

Not to entirely excuse the fanbases, but it's my understanding that a) Oakland Coliseum is a dump that was never meant for baseball and the A's have been fighting for years to get municipal government approval to build a new stadium somewhere because they need it and b) the Trop is kind of a dump and also out in the middle of nowhere a fair distance outside of Tampa Bay proper. So in both cases there are some extenuating circumstances.

In my experience with corporate research, those are usually the kinds of reasons corporations dish out to shareholders when they don't really have an answer and just want to seem proactive. The reason could be true, sure, but often times there are far more impactful reasons especially considering millennials have proven to be quite willing to travel (travel and remote location spending has actually gone way up in the smartphone era; millennials don't mind travel). My guess for the A's is that it simply isn't "cool" to cheer for the A's when you've got the Giants and Dodgers just around the corner. That fanbase would also be decidedly rooted in NL rules, so they probably just don't like AL baseball. But again, that's just a guess. I have no insight into how that team is run.

I have much more familiarity with the Rays given all the interviews that followed after the whole "moving to Montreal" thing. The idea that young Floridians just don't like baseball has merit (the Marlins aren't much better). Turns out the reason for the Rays' funky revenue numbers is because the vast number of its fans are seniors watching from home. Seniors don't go to games. They don't buy jerseys. And they're not the greatest long term fanbase. No idea why baseball isn't that popular in Florida, you'd think it would be, but, outside of old fans, that does seem to be the case.

 

[Discoverer]

It makes plenty of sense because the issue you lead with was financial risk aka money. 7.3million barely gets you a 1WAR player in analytics terms. That's fine that they signed Ray and traded for Matz, but Matz at million was even more of a risk given his own injury history and coming off a bad year,

Also having Matz should not have precluded them from signing Walker, anymore than having Stripling did. It's not like we were deep in starting pitching. We had two sure-thing starters in Ryu and Ray and then a bunch of potential. Even if you expected him to be a 5th starter going forward, we could have used the depth, and there aren't many decent veteran (post-arb) fifth starters making less than 7.3 mill. This isn't even in hindsight imo. A bunch of us liked Walker, especially when we found out how little he signed for.

Matz is less of a risk because if it backfires he's off the books and you move on and spend the money elsewhere.