Player Discussion Victor Olofsson (2014, 181st) - Part II (Heading to UFA, Playing at the WCs)

[Jim Bob]

Is this alluding to crouse as a 20 goal scorer or vo as a 30 goal scorer?

Either fits. Crouse has a career high of 20 goals in the NHL. And there was a post that said he is guaranteed to get 20-25 goals. I just don't see it.

Crouse has 56 career NHL goals (in 346 NHL games) and a career high of 20. Olofsson has 55 career NHL goals (in 188 NHL games) and a career high of 20.

Neither guy is guaranteed to score 20, 25, or 30 goals year in and year out. They have the ability to be 20-30 goal guys. But, they are not guys that get 20+ goals in a down year. And you can only say someone is guaranteed to produce what they are likely to produce in a down year for me.

And it is not just in this thread. It is the same line of thinking that some people had back when Skinner was coming off his 40 goal season and needed a new contract. There were some people that were of the thinking that the Sabres had to give Skinner whatever he wanted because he was guaranteed to be a 40 goal guy every season moving forward playing with Eichel here in Buffalo.

 

[Matt Ress]

Either fits. Crouse has a career high of 20 goals in the NHL. And there was a post that said he is guaranteed to get 20-25 goals. I just don't see it.

Crouse has 56 career NHL goals (in 346 NHL games) and a career high of 20. Olofsson has 55 career NHL goals (in 188 NHL games) and a career high of 20.

Neither guy is guaranteed to score 20, 25, or 30 goals year in and year out. They have the ability to be 20-30 goal guys. But, they are not guys that get 20+ goals in a down year. And you can only say someone is guaranteed to produce what they are likely to produce in a down year for me.

And it is not just in this thread. It is the same line of thinking that some people had back when Skinner was coming off his 40 goal season and needed a new contract. There were some people that were of the thinking that the Sabres had to give Skinner whatever he wanted because he was guaranteed to be a 40 goal guy every season moving forward playing with Eichel here in Buffalo.

Some people named Jason?

 

[Djp]

Either fits. Crouse has a career high of 20 goals in the NHL. And there was a post that said he is guaranteed to get 20-25 goals. I just don't see it.

Crouse has 56 career NHL goals (in 346 NHL games) and a career high of 20. Olofsson has 55 career NHL goals (in 188 NHL games) and a career high of 20.

Neither guy is guaranteed to score 20, 25, or 30 goals year in and year out. They have the ability to be 20-30 goal guys. But, they are not guys that get 20+ goals in a down year. And you can only say someone is guaranteed to produce what they are likely to produce in a down year for me.

And it is not just in this thread. It is the same line of thinking that some people had back when Skinner was coming off his 40 goal season and needed a new contract. There were some people that were of the thinking that the Sabres had to give Skinner whatever he wanted because he was guaranteed to be a 40 goal guy every season moving forward playing with Eichel here in Buffalo.

in October before injury

Buffalo was 5-2-1 and VO was 5g-4A in 8 games
since March 1 Buffalo was 16-9-3 in 28 games and VO was 13g-12a

first 30 games Tage was 7-9-16. Last 52 games he got 52 pts

 

[TehDoak]

So, in thinking about this some more.

Contract Length: No more than 4 years
Contract term: No more than 5M.
No NMC. Limited NTC is fine.

If he wants to go to arb and go to UFA, I think you can move on.

In the end, VO is a good middle six forward. But he isn't a franchise building block and it's not like there's a huge upside left. In a fully healthy season with favorable deployments he can be a 30 goal guy. And that is valuable. I simply think the drop off from him in that role to lets say Peterka won't be that huge.

 

[Jim Bob]

in October before injury

Buffalo was 5-2-1 and VO was 5g-4A in 8 games
since March 1 Buffalo was 16-9-3 in 28 games and VO was 13g-12a

first 30 games Tage was 7-9-16. Last 52 games he got 52 pts

Good play in small sample sizes does not equal guaranteed production over the long haul.

That is like a kid with a 2.5 GPA in HS saying that they are guaranteed to get at least a 3.0 in college because they got a couple of As.

 

[Djp]

Good play in small sample sizes does not equal guaranteed production over the long haul.

That is like a kid with a 2.5 GPA in HS saying that they are guaranteed to get at least a 3.0 in college because they got a couple of As.

he was hurt during that stretch which affected his play signfuvantly. Are you saying he wasn’t injured?

 

[LongWayDown37]

Good play in small sample sizes does not equal guaranteed production over the long haul.

That is like a kid with a 2.5 GPA in HS saying that they are guaranteed to get at least a 3.0 in college because they got a couple of As.

Not quite. Yeah, the new stats can't be taken as bible but you also can't dismiss it. I think Buffalo needs to really have a great opportunity on the other side if they are going to move on from VO.

 

[Jim Bob]

he was hurt during that stretch which affected his play signfuvantly. Are you saying he wasn’t injured?

I am saying 8 game and 28 game stretches are small sample sizes. And small sample sizes of good play should not be used to extrapolate "guaranteed" future production over large sample sizes such as entire 82 game NHL seasons.

Are you saying those aren't merely small sample sizes?

Post automatically merged: May 3, 2022

Not quite. Yeah, the new stats can't be taken as bible but you also can't dismiss it. I think Buffalo needs to really have a great opportunity on the other side if they are going to move on from VO.

I am not dismissing anything other than claims that Crouse is guaranteed to put up 20-25 goals every season moving forward or that VO is guaranteed to put up 20-30 goals every season moving forward.

Neither Crouse nor VO has scored 25 goals in an NHL season.

You can say that you hope that they can get 20-25 goals or couch stuff with disclaimers about staying healthy or stuff. But, staying healthy or playing well for an entire season are not guarantees.

 

[dasaybz]

So, in thinking about this some more.

Contract Length: No more than 4 years
Contract term: No more than 5M.
No NMC. Limited NTC is fine.

If he wants to go to arb and go to UFA, I think you can move on.

In the end, VO is a good middle six forward. But he isn't a franchise building block and it's not like there's a huge upside left. In a fully healthy season with favorable deployments he can be a 30 goal guy. And that is valuable. I simply think the drop off from him in that role to lets say Peterka won't be that huge.

I just really don't understand this line of thinking at all. You don't just let guys walk. After what has happened for the last 15 years, it's time to start rewarding them. If you looked around the league at guys that you think you could snag up that fit the mold of a younger, up and coming guy. Put up nice numbers and has possibly more room to grow, I would be all over that kind of player. You don't just let them go. Crazy.

 

[Jim Bob]

I just really don't understand this line of thinking at all. You don't just let guys walk. After what has happened for the last 15 years, it's time to start rewarding them. If you looked around the league at guys that you think you could snag up that fit the mold of a younger, up and coming guy. Put up nice numbers and has possibly more room to grow, I would be all over that kind of player. You don't just let them go. Crazy.

Being OK with giving him a multi-year deal in the $4-5M AAV range is not "just letting him walk." That is a fair market offer for a player with his resume who is one year away from being UFA eligible.

The question is whether VO wants a fair market multi-year deal or whether he wants to bet on himself by going for a 1 year deal via arbitration. The Sabres can't make him sign a multi-year deal. And they absolutely do not need to give him a blank check. That would spin up the Jeff Skinner extension debate all over again...

 

[buffalowing88]

I just really don't understand this line of thinking at all. You don't just let guys walk. After what has happened for the last 15 years, it's time to start rewarding them. If you looked around the league at guys that you think you could snag up that fit the mold of a younger, up and coming guy. Put up nice numbers and has possibly more room to grow, I would be all over that kind of player. You don't just let them go. Crazy.

Rewarding everyone is nice in theory but there is a finite amount of cap space and if he's getting over $5 million on a long contract, we will quickly start running out of room when the time comes for a new Thompson or Cozens contract, for instance.

I just ask myself at the end of the day do I want to risk running out of cap room for one of those guys to keep Oloffson? And do we want to keep him instead of putting FA money on a solid veteran D guy who is strong in his own end? Or a goalie should Anderson split?

Oloffson is nice but we should also be realistic about the money we will need to spend on the young guys eventually.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

I am saying 8 game and 28 game stretches are small sample sizes. And small sample sizes of good play should not be used to extrapolate "guaranteed" future production over large sample sizes such as entire 82 game NHL seasons.

Are you saying those aren't merely small sample sizes?

Post automatically merged: May 3, 2022

I am not dismissing anything other than claims that Crouse is guaranteed to put up 20-25 goals every season moving forward or that VO is guaranteed to put up 20-30 goals every season moving forward.

Neither Crouse nor VO has scored 25 goals in an NHL season.

You can say that you hope that they can get 20-25 goals or couch stuff with disclaimers about staying healthy or stuff. But, staying healthy or playing well for an entire season are not guarantees.

VO is pretty close to being a 20g guarantee.

Wouldn't be surprised if he had 25-30g and 60pts next year if he is healthy.

 

[Reddawg]

VO is pretty close to being a 20g guarantee.

Wouldn't be surprised if he had 25-30g and 60pts next year if he is healthy.

I think he goes 40-30-70 in a full healthy season.

 

[Chainshot]

I tend to agree that saying a player, be it Crouse or Olofsson or anyone else for that matter, who has only done something once is a guarantee for future production is potentially building in disappointment.

 

[Djp]

Rewarding everyone is nice in theory but there is a finite amount of cap space and if he's getting over $5 million on a long contract, we will quickly start running out of room when the time comes for a new Thompson or Cozens contract, for instance.

I just ask myself at the end of the day do I want to risk running out of cap room for one of those guys to keep Oloffson? And do we want to keep him instead of putting FA money on a solid veteran D guy who is strong in his own end? Or a goalie should Anderson split?

Oloffson is nice but we should also be realistic about the money we will need to spend on the young guys eventually.

signing Olofsson for 4-5 yrs will not be an issue long term.

after next year expect Cozens getting a 3 yr bridge
Quinn and Peterka will likely get short bridges after their ELCs are done
Even if Buffalo resigns Girgs/ KO they are still going to be a just avoid cap floor team.

if KO contract goes 5 yrs thrn his and Skinner are ending at the same time opening up cap space fir younger players.

the issue woukd be if Buffalo was to sign/acquire another high salary person going 3+ yrs.

 

[Djp]

I am saying 8 game and 28 game stretches are small sample sizes. And small sample sizes of good play should not be used to extrapolate "guaranteed" future production over large sample sizes such as entire 82 game NHL seasons.

Are you saying those aren't merely small sample sizes?

Post automatically merged: May 3, 2022

I am not dismissing anything other than claims that Crouse is guaranteed to put up 20-25 goals every season moving forward or that VO is guaranteed to put up 20-30 goals every season moving forward.

Neither Crouse nor VO has scored 25 goals in an NHL season.

You can say that you hope that they can get 20-25 goals or couch stuff with disclaimers about staying healthy or stuff. But, staying healthy or playing well for an entire season are not guarantees.

I’ll say you think there was not an injury to Olofsson.

ifhes is playing PP and use on offensive lines and opportunities hes likeky put up 60 pt pace.

this year he was 49 in 72 and injured for about half the season. Saying he isn’t a 55-60 player is utter horseshit

 

[GOALOFSSON]

I think he goes 40-30-70 in a full healthy season.

Now we're getting somewhere

 

[SundherDome]

He needs to go back into his office on the PP and also drive the net a bit more. Not driving as in getting into the paint but inside the faceoff dot he is lethal

 

[Jim Bob]

I’ll say you think there was not an injury to Olofsson.

ifhes is playing PP and use on offensive lines and opportunities hes likeky put up 60 pt pace.

this year he was 49 in 72 and injured for about half the season. Saying he isn’t a 55-60 player is utter horseshit

I absolutely believe he was hurt and it impacted his production this year. But, that is kind of the point.

I said he isn't guaranteed to be a 20-30 goal player every year moving forward based on the fact that his career high is 20 goals.

I have no problem with statements like he is a 25+ goal and 50+ point guy if he can stay healthy. But, that IF he can stay healthy part is an important qualifier to me.

 

[Paxon]

Rewarding everyone is nice in theory but there is a finite amount of cap space and if he's getting over $5 million on a long contract, we will quickly start running out of room when the time comes for a new Thompson or Cozens contract, for instance.

I just ask myself at the end of the day do I want to risk running out of cap room for one of those guys to keep Oloffson? And do we want to keep him instead of putting FA money on a solid veteran D guy who is strong in his own end? Or a goalie should Anderson split?

Oloffson is nice but we should also be realistic about the money we will need to spend on the young guys eventually.

You don't risk running out of room because you can just trade him when the actual time comes to replace him internally, rather than trading him now when he isn't being adequately replaced. The only complication to that is if he becomes terrible, which does not concern me.

 

[Samsonite23]

I am saying 8 game and 28 game stretches are small sample sizes. And small sample sizes of good play should not be used to extrapolate "guaranteed" future production over large sample sizes such as entire 82 game NHL seasons.

Are you saying those aren't merely small sample sizes?

Post automatically merged: May 3, 2022

I am not dismissing anything other than claims that Crouse is guaranteed to put up 20-25 goals every season moving forward or that VO is guaranteed to put up 20-30 goals every season moving forward.

Neither Crouse nor VO has scored 25 goals in an NHL season.

You can say that you hope that they can get 20-25 goals or couch stuff with disclaimers about staying healthy or stuff. But, staying healthy or playing well for an entire season are not guarantees.

While what you’re saying is definitely true in that injuries and durability matters, Olofsson on a goals per game basis averages 24 goals (and 55 points) over 82 games. And that’s from day 1 stepping into the NHL and with his injury clearly affecting his play this year.

If he’s relatively healthy a whole season, he’s going to score 30-40 (whenever that happens) IMO. That being said, staying healthy is a question mark for sure and no guarantee.

 

[Matt Ress]

Paxon nailed it. There's no need to over pay or over lengthen the deal but worrying about it 4 years down the road is silly. Maybe we'll have a Rosen or one of our 1st rounders to step in by then.

I don't think he's going to be a 70pt guy because he just doesn't seem to be healthy for a full year but he's effective when he's on the ice. If he's over asking (which he doesn't seem like that type), then yeah move him. Just get a good return.

 

[dasaybz]

Rewarding everyone is nice in theory but there is a finite amount of cap space and if he's getting over $5 million on a long contract, we will quickly start running out of room when the time comes for a new Thompson or Cozens contract, for instance.

I just ask myself at the end of the day do I want to risk running out of cap room for one of those guys to keep Oloffson? And do we want to keep him instead of putting FA money on a solid veteran D guy who is strong in his own end? Or a goalie should Anderson split?

Oloffson is nice but we should also be realistic about the money we will need to spend on the young guys eventually.

We've rewarded literally nobody. I said it earlier in this thread, I'm comfortable with a 4 year deal, I'm not talking about just throwing a ridiculous contract for the guy, but my goodness, give him a nice damn raise. We have no cap issues right now, and probably won't for years.

Post automatically merged: May 3, 2022

Being OK with giving him a multi-year deal in the $4-5M AAV range is not "just letting him walk." That is a fair market offer for a player with his resume who is one year away from being UFA eligible.

The question is whether VO wants a fair market multi-year deal or whether he wants to bet on himself by going for a 1 year deal via arbitration. The Sabres can't make him sign a multi-year deal. And they absolutely do not need to give him a blank check. That would spin up the Jeff Skinner extension debate all over again...

This is not what I'm saying at all. You don't just give him a blank check, that's stupid. What you do is talk to his agents, see what he wants, and work from there. I'm so tired of players just leaving. Look at the Bills, they drafted and developed their own guys and rewarded them with good market level contracts. It's really not that hard to do, and I don't understand why people are over complicating this Sheesh.

 

[Jim Bob]

This is not what I'm saying at all. You don't just give him a blank check, that's stupid. What you do is talk to his agents, see what he wants, and work from there. I'm so tired of players just leaving. Look at the Bills, they drafted and developed their own guys and rewarded them with good market level contracts. It's really not that hard to do, and I don't understand why people are over complicating this Sheesh.

But talking about a reasonable deal was exactly the parameters that @TehDoak was laying out that you seemed to be arguing against in your reply.

 

[dasaybz]

But talking about a reasonable deal was exactly the parameters that @TehDoak was laying out that you seemed to be arguing against in your reply.

Contract Length: No more than 4 years
Contract term: No more than 5M.
No NMC. Limited NTC is fine.

If he wants to go to arb and go to UFA, I think you can move on.

I'm talking about just letting him go to arb and UFA and moving on. You just can't let that happen.