Player Discussion Victor Olofsson (2014, 181st) - Part II (Heading to UFA, Playing at the WCs)

[Bendium]

No way Offofsson signs a 3 year deal when he can just get paid in arbitration and go to UFA next year. Your going to have to overpay for anything under 5 years. There is nothing to suggest he will not at least be what he is right now for the next 4-6 years. Just go to 5-6 years if it gets the AAV down. He will always be a tradable asset at the deadline.

 

[jmelm]

I think he likes it here and the organization has invested a lot in him. Not getting Reinhart vibe from him at all

That's certainly encouraging that he likes it here and I'm definitely no suggesting it's anything personal between him on the team. Rather, that it's just going to come down to business and I could understand it IF the Sabres don't want to go long term with him, I don't think there's any reason for Olofsson to compromise and take a shorter term deal if he feels he's earned one.

Of course, there are cases where a player really likes a team or city so much that they will put their financial interests aside, but more often than not, FA's will make the decision that they feel is in their best long term financial interest (or at least a better balance of those 2 things). Like I said before, it just may be a simple case of the team and player not seeing eye to eye on what a long term contract looks like. Maybe the team wants 3 years and the player wants 5 or 6 and they just can't bridge that gap.

No way Offofsson signs a 3 year deal when he can just get paid in arbitration and go to UFA next year. Your going to have to overpay for anything under 5 years. There is nothing to suggest he will not at least be what he is right now for the next 4-6 years. Just go to 5-6 years if it gets the AAV down. He will always be a tradable asset at the deadline.

You and I obviously agree on the first part, especially since he's in his prime now. If he was 23 or 31 years old, it would be less of an issue. But hitting UFA at 27 right in your prime when the player and other teams will believe he can sustain a high level of play for a good number of years, that is the time when you want to cash in as a player. As they always say, it's a short window of earning, especially for a guy like VO who hasn't been in the NHL since he only became an NHL regular in the last 3 years and hasn't had years of NHL earnings before that.

I do disagree with you on the second part, though. Aside from not giving him any modified/limited NTC in the contract (if he would sign a wide open/non-restricted deal), we just don't know where his game would be in years 4/5/6 years. It could be at a high level, it may not, there may be injuries, who knows. It's just not a sure thing.

It really comes down to this question: how many years are you willing to commit to a player who likely isn't viewed as an integral part of the core long term?

 

[elchud]

Buchnevich got 4x5.8 last offseason.

4x4.5 seems more than fair for VO. They are the same age.

 

[jmelm]

Buchnevich got 4x5.8 last offseason.

4x4.5 seems more than fair for VO. They are the same age.

Yes but the counter to that would be that Buchnevich is a more mutli-dimensional player -- kills penalties, much more size/physicality, etc.

4.5M is certainly fair value, I just don't know if the Sabres want to commit long term to him. I guess we'll find out pretty soon!

 

[Sabres Fan UK]

Yes but the counter to that would be that Buchnevich is a more mutli-dimensional player -- kills penalties, much more size/physicality, etc.

4.5M is certainly fair value, I just don't know if the Sabres want to commit long term to him. I guess we'll find out pretty soon!

I’d be thrilled if we get VO signed to 4x4.5M

 

[jmelm]

I’d be thrilled if we get VO signed to 4x4.5M

I hear you, but Adams may feel differently. His name was obviously out there at the deadline for a reason (though that obviously doesn't guarantee anything).

The good news is we won't have to wait too long to find out!

 

[Buffaloed]

2022 Player Report Card: Victor Olofsson

26-year-old was scoreless for 30 games after a wrist injury, but finished strong

www.diebytheblade.com

I think VO's goal scoring potential is underrated. If he stays healthy 40-50 goals is in his wheelhouse.

 

[Jim Bob]

2022 Player Report Card: Victor Olofsson

26-year-old was scoreless for 30 games after a wrist injury, but finished strong

www.diebytheblade.com

I think VO's goal scoring potential is underrated. If he stays healthy 40-50 goals is in his wheelhouse.

I don't get how a goal scorer can go 30 games without a goal and get a "B - did better than expectation" grade for the year when he has 20g & 49pts in 72 GP. Especially if he actually has 40-50 goal potential.

I get that the injury ruined his year. But, then there needs to be an I - incomplete grade option, IMO.

VO & Mitts are in the same boat for me where injuries severely impacted their seasons. I don't see any other option than to give them both Incomplete grades for 21-22.

 

[Buffaloed]

I don't get how a goal scorer can go 30 games without a goal and get a "B - did better than expectation" grade for the year when he has 20g & 49pts in 72 GP. Especially if he actually has 40-50 goal potential.

I get that the injury ruined his year. But, then there needs to be an I - incomplete grade option, IMO.

VO & Mitts are in the same boat for me where injuries severely impacted their seasons. I don't see any other option than to give them both Incomplete grades for 21-22

Anyone with an Internet connection can pose as an expert

 

[Djp]

I don't get how a goal scorer can go 30 games without a goal and get a "B - did better than expectation" grade for the year when he has 20g & 49pts in 72 GP. Especially if he actually has 40-50 goal potential.

I get that the injury ruined his year. But, then there needs to be an I - incomplete grade option, IMO.

VO & Mitts are in the same boat for me where injuries severely impacted their seasons. I don't see any other option than to give them both Incomplete grades for 21-22.

not on VO.

you look at him outside that injury period.

October March April 36 gAmes 18g 16a 34 pts
other. 36 games 2-13-15

yes the injury affected him And his ability on shooting and passing.

him being healthy, playing PP1 he’s likely a 60+ pt player with 30-35 goaklas.

Mitts need to show how he is next year healthy fir a full season.

Mitts is under contract the next 2 yrs.

 

[Jim Bob]

not on VO.

you look at him outside that injury period.

October March April 36 gAmes 18g 16a 34 pts
other. 36 games 2-13-15

yes the injury affected him And his ability on shooting and passing.

him being healthy, playing PP1 he’s likely a 60+ pt player with 30-35 goaklas.

Mitts need to show how he is next year healthy fir a full season.

Mitts is under contract the next 2 yrs.

If you are grading his season, I think you have to look at the totality of the season and not just the parts of the season where he was effective.

 

[Chainshot]

Also if we are looking at him, is his frame able to withstand NHL conditions and thinking that a full year of 100% health is possible? Not for nothing, but he's not the most robust player in terms of mass. How prudent would it be to assume that he's going to complete seasons without physical breakdowns?

 

[Jim Bob]

Also if we are looking at him, is his frame able to withstand NHL conditions and thinking that a full year of 100% health is possible? Not for nothing, but he's not the most robust player in terms of mass. How prudent would it be to assume that he's going to complete seasons without physical breakdowns?

That is what will make the contract talks interesting.

He has 30+ goal talent, a career high of 20 goals, and a career goal scoring rate of 24 goals per 82 games played.

And he turns 27yo in July.

 

[CowbellConray]

I think he is a strong middle 6 option for this team. If he is healthy, he can be a 28-35 goal player with 60 points.

If he is injured, he is a 18-22 goal 45 point player.

I think this organization has the depth and cap space to take a chance on him for a 3-4 year deal. Around 4.5 mil to secure him as that type of player/contributor.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I hear you, but Adams may feel differently. His name was obviously out there at the deadline for a reason (though that obviously doesn't guarantee anything).

The good news is we won't have to wait too long to find out!

I never got the impression that Buffalo was looking to move VO, just that other teams might've been asking about him.

 

[jmelm]

I never got the impression that Buffalo was looking to move VO, just that other teams might've been asking about him.

Whether it's true or not, Seravalli said that because VO is arbitration eligible and BUF may not want to either pay him the amount he would likely be awarded, that's why his name was out there.

If that is true, and clearly BUF is not just looking to give him away unless it's a solid deal since they didn't move him at the deadline, I read it in between the lines this way: we know that we have the cap space to sign VO for next season, as well as that he can still fill a useful role for us because he's a good player and while we expect guys like Quinn & Peterka to take a step, we don't want to rush the kids with too much responsibility, or just to have more depth next season in the event of injury, etc.

In other words, I don't buy that the concern is what VO would get awarded in arbitration for one season, but rather the longer term view that BUF may either not want to commit 4-5 years and $4-5M per on VO, because they not view him as a top 6 long term with the Cozens/Krebs/Quinn/Peterka all coming on strong and expected to take a step, and they may either not want to pay a 3rd line W that much or they may prefer just having a different type of player.

For me, it's that latter point, a different type of player. As I said weeks ago earlier in this thread, I'd rather go sign Nick Paul for the same term and money as VO would be looking for, because Paul or a player like that, brings a different type of element that I think we need and would be a better complement for our roster both short and long term.

That's how I see it. But I agree: we have not heard anything or gotten any impressions on how the org. feels about this, since they have not shown their cards yet on this at all. But the above is both what I suspect is the case, as well as my personal opinion.

 

[TehDoak]

2022 Player Report Card: Victor Olofsson

26-year-old was scoreless for 30 games after a wrist injury, but finished strong

www.diebytheblade.com

I think VO's goal scoring potential is underrated. If he stays healthy 40-50 goals is in his wheelhouse.

Eh, I think that is pretty high. 30 goals in a fully healthy season is where i see his upside. Maybe if he had an elite center to play with?

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

In other words, I don't buy that the concern is what VO would get awarded in arbitration for one season, but rather the longer term view that BUF may either not want to commit 4-5 years and $4-5M per on VO, because they not view him as a top 6 long term with the Cozens/Krebs/Quinn/Peterka all coming on strong and expected to take a step, and they may either not want to pay a 3rd line W that much or they may prefer just having a different type of player.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me not to commit to him for 4 or 5 years. Let the kids take the next step and force the Sabres hands, it's premature to count on it happening because there are no guarantees. If they all break-out and push VO down the line-up then at that point you have a scoring LW on a reasonable contract that could be traded to address other needs if it came to that.

 

[jmelm]

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me not to commit to him for 4 or 5 years. Let the kids take the next step and force the Sabres hands, it's premature to count on it happening because there are no guarantees. If they all break-out and push VO down the line-up then at that point you have a scoring LW on a reasonable contract that could be traded to address other needs if it came to that.

Yes, signing him now with the intent of trading him in 2-3 years is certainly one good strategy. But it may also be the case — depending on what offers they may receive this summer, and how they want to build their roster for next year including adding some UFAs — they may determine that they can get peak value for a 27 year old VO rather than a 30-31 year old VO a few years from now.

If I’m Adam’s, there are two forwards I would clearly target ahead of VO: Nick Paul who I mentioned, and Bryan Rust.

Rust is a FAR superior player and what we would have to pay VO would cover about 75-80% of what it would cost to sign and he brings different elements (huge speed, great PKer, multiple Cup winning experience and huge work ethic & leadership qualities).

I had read a few reports/tweets from Pens’ best writers about BUF scouts being at a few of the Penguins game down the stretch. Not sure if they were looking at Rust or Letang (or both) or someone else, but both Rust or and/or Letang are two guys who could be major impact players for us — not only on the ice, but in terms of leadership/mentorship, offseason training and work habits in general. There is not a single Dman in the NHL today I would want on my team and around my other young Dmen teammates than Kris Letang.

So maybe a possible Olofsson trade might be contingent on whether they’re able to add someone who they like even better in UFA. Acquiring a superior UFA for nothing and then trading an existing player is not only a way to improve your team, it’s also brilliant asset management that I’m surprised we don’t see across the league a lot more often.

 

[michaelsaas]

Yes, signing him now with the intent of trading him in 2-3 years is certainly one good strategy. But it may also be the case — depending on what offers they may receive this summer, and how they want to build their roster for next year including adding some UFAs — they may determine that they can get peak value for a 27 year old VO rather than a 30-31 year old VO a few years from now.

If I’m Adam’s, there are two forwards I would clearly target ahead of VO: Nick Paul who I mentioned, and Bryan Rust.

Rust is a FAR superior player and what we would have to pay VO would cover about 75-80% of what it would cost to sign and he brings different elements (huge speed, great PKer, multiple Cup winning experience and huge work ethic & leadership qualities).

I had read a few reports/tweets from Pens’ best writers about BUF scouts being at a few of the Penguins game down the stretch. Not sure if they were looking at Rust or Letang (or both) or someone else, but both Rust or and/or Letang are two guys who could be major impact players for us — not only on the ice, but in terms of leadership/mentorship, offseason training and work habits in general. There is not a single Dman in the NHL today I would want on my team and around my other young Dmen teammates than Kris Letang.

So maybe a possible Olofsson trade might be contingent on whether they’re able to add someone who they like even better in UFA. Acquiring a superior UFA for nothing and then trading an existing player is not only a way to improve your team, it’s also brilliant asset management that I’m surprised we don’t see across the league a lot more often.

I don't follow the pens so I don't know but is Rust as good as he appears or is that a byproduct of Crosby? It seems like Sheary was highly touted until he moved away from the Pens and onto our lineup. But I might be misremembering.

 

[jmelm]

I don't follow the pens so I don't know but is Rust as good as he appears or is that a byproduct of Crosby? It seems like Sheary was highly touted until he moved away from the Pens and onto our lineup. But I might be misremembering.

Rust is a legit great player. Think of him as a better version of Zack Hyman.

He has performed equally well with Crosby or Malkin, and he works well with any C (such as Carter when those other guys were out). He's a legit great player who can excel on both special teams and 5 on 5. His work ethic is off the charts and he's one of those guys with a motor who never quits. He's a momentum generating player in that regard. He's a very good finisher with his shot or in tight, and consistently drives hard to the net. He is a legit top line complementary winger.

Because of Rust's work ethic and his speed, I believe he will be a guy who ages well and has a lot of good years left before he starts to decline. I expect for the next handful of years while his game is at its peak, if he's getting top 6 minutes and even 2nd unit PP time, he's a guy who can consistently push for 30 goals and 60+ points depending on the skill of his linemates.

There is absolutely no similarity with Connor Sheary. Sheary can have a good game or a short stretch here and there but then he disappears. He's also much more of a perimeter player and is not strong in the corners/along the boards like Rust. He doesn't have either the offensive potential nor the work ethic/motor Rust has, and Rust is a far more consistent player and much better defensive player.

Hopefully that's a decent scouting report and gives you an idea about Rust and the comparison between those 2.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Rust is a legit great player. Think of him as a better version of Zack Hyman.

He has performed equally well with Crosby or Malkin, and he works well with any C (such as Carter when those other guys were out). He's a legit great player who can excel on both special teams and 5 on 5. His work ethic is off the charts and he's one of those guys with a motor who never quits. He's a momentum generating player in that regard. He's a very good finisher with his shot or in tight, and consistently drives hard to the net. He is a legit top line complementary winger.

Because of Rust's work ethic and his speed, I believe he will be a guy who ages well and has a lot of good years left before he starts to decline. I expect for the next handful of years while his game is at its peak, if he's getting top 6 minutes and even 2nd unit PP time, he's a guy who can consistently push for 30 goals and 60+ points depending on the skill of his linemates.

There is absolutely no similarity with Connor Sheary. Sheary can have a good game or a short stretch here and there but then he disappears. He's also much more of a perimeter player and is not strong in the corners/along the boards like Rust. He doesn't have either the offensive potential nor the work ethic/motor Rust has, and Rust is a far more consistent player and much better defensive player.

Hopefully that's a decent scouting report and gives you an idea about Rust and the comparison between those 2.

If Rust takes a Hornqvist contract then I’m fine with it. Maybe up to an Okposo contract. After that it’s too much

 

[michaelsaas]

Rust is a legit great player. Think of him as a better version of Zack Hyman.

He has performed equally well with Crosby or Malkin, and he works well with any C (such as Carter when those other guys were out). He's a legit great player who can excel on both special teams and 5 on 5. His work ethic is off the charts and he's one of those guys with a motor who never quits. He's a momentum generating player in that regard. He's a very good finisher with his shot or in tight, and consistently drives hard to the net. He is a legit top line complementary winger.

Because of Rust's work ethic and his speed, I believe he will be a guy who ages well and has a lot of good years left before he starts to decline. I expect for the next handful of years while his game is at its peak, if he's getting top 6 minutes and even 2nd unit PP time, he's a guy who can consistently push for 30 goals and 60+ points depending on the skill of his linemates.

There is absolutely no similarity with Connor Sheary. Sheary can have a good game or a short stretch here and there but then he disappears. He's also much more of a perimeter player and is not strong in the corners/along the boards like Rust. He doesn't have either the offensive potential nor the work ethic/motor Rust has, and Rust is a far more consistent player and much better defensive player.

Hopefully that's a decent scouting report and gives you an idea about Rust and the comparison between those 2.

It's a great report! How much do I owe you? lol

 

[Djp]

I don't follow the pens so I don't know but is Rust as good as he appears or is that a byproduct of Crosby? It seems like Sheary was highly touted until he moved away from the Pens and onto our lineup. But I might be misremembering.

Rust is a byproduct of who he plays with. I don’t want to spend what he thinks he’s worth. I’m fine just resigning VO

I never got the impression that Buffalo was looking to move VO, just that other teams might've been asking about him.

other teams were asking for VO for a 3rd or worse picks.

 

[jmelm]

If Rust takes a Hornqvist contract then I’m fine with it. Maybe up to an Okposo contract. After that it’s too much

I would give him the Zack Hyman contract (7 x 5.5M) or 6 x 6 without hesitation. Because of his speed and versatility, he will always be a useful player and bring huge character, leadership & experience. I suspect he can sustain his level of play for 4-5 seasons, and have more of a gradual decline than Hornqvist because his body doesn't take the beating Horny does. Horny fell of a cliff because he was never a great skater and he played a much more physically demanding game.

And we have to keep in mind, in 5 years from now the cap will be at ~ 100M and go up from there. So his last 3-4 years could be the equivalent of a 4.5 to 5M player. I would roll the dice on him if we're looking to add a UFA. The value he would bring to our younger players would VERY signficant.

Rust is a byproduct of who he plays with. I don’t want to spend what he thinks he’s worth. I’m fine just resigning VO

Spoken like a perfect example of someone who doesn't watch him play.

VO and Rust are not in the same ballpark. The difference between the 2 is FAR FAR greater than the delta between their dollar value will be on an AAV basis.