Proposal: Vancouver - Montreal

[Theodore450]

One goal games suggest they were close and the difference between a loser point and 2 pointer is not much.
They had a TERRIBLE goal differential.
Take out Allen's numbers and prorate Monty's and CP"s numbers without considering any improvement would gain at 36 goals off the goal differential. If Caufeild-Suzuki-Slafkovsky had scored at the same rate in the first 41 games you could add another 23 goals to goals for. There is more but at this point but these 2 facets would put them in the hunt.

5th worst goal differential, 5th worst record checks out completely.

4th worst expected goal differential, 5th worst record checks out completely.
Amongst the youngest teams in the league with the youngest defense while dealing with a crippling amount of injuries. 8 point improvement in the standings two drafts into a rebuild.


Last year was a development year and 2 drafts into the rebuild.Back luck? I would define losing Dach 4 periods into the season from a freak event I would call unlucky myself along with a large body count of other injuries. I will state they they have started to get a handle on it and should continue along this line. I could see a 75 goal swing in the goal differential as the top end of the possible spectrum next year. I expect to see a lot of postings on how the Habs are over rated next year. But go on.

This is a prime example of a homer post

 

[Miller Time]

We're talking about trading a 1st, and a 23 yr old who had 24 goals in like 12 mins a game haha. Xhekaj better be a top 4 dman with upside..

Where did that player disappear to in the post season?

I'm sure his regular season goal total had nothing to do with being on a top scoring (6th) roster... Tocchet must not have got the memo that Hog was driving that scoring rather than riding on the coatails when he decided to reduce him to 10min/g in the playoffs.
Then again, at 12min/night in the regular season, doesn't appear the coach had much confidence in him in the regular season either lol

 

[dgibb10]

One goal games suggest they were close and the difference between a loser point and 2 pointer is not much.
They had a TERRIBLE goal differential.
Take out Allen's numbers and prorate Monty's and CP"s numbers without considering any improvement would gain at 36 goals off the goal differential. If Caufeild-Suzuki-Slafkovsky had scored at the same rate in the first 41 games you could add another 23 goals to goals for. There is more but at this point but these 2 facets would put them in the hunt.

5th worst goal differential, 5th worst record checks out completely.

4th worst expected goal differential, 5th worst record checks out completely.
Amongst the youngest teams in the league with the youngest defense while dealing with a crippling amount of injuries. 8 point improvement in the standings two drafts into a rebuild.


Last year was a development year and 2 drafts into the rebuild.Back luck? I would define losing Dach 4 periods into the season from a freak event I would call unlucky myself along with a large body count of other injuries. I will state they they have started to get a handle on it and should continue along this line. I could see a 75 goal swing in the goal differential as the top end of the possible spectrum next year. I expect to see a lot of postings on how the Habs are over rated next year. But go on.

1 goal games may suggest that at first. But you'd only expect 1 goal losses to turn into better standings if they were almost all regulation losses. Again, based on how MTL played over the course of the year, they finished exactly where they should have.

MTLs goaltending is likely to be worse rather than better. You're expecting a 36 goal improvement in net? Utter delusion. MTL already had a +28 GSAx last year. +36 goals would be SIXTY FOUR GOALS SAVED ABOVE EXPECTATION. To provide some context, Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman combined for 44 GSAx last year.

It's MUCH more likely that MTLs goaltending ends up average next year and gets WORSE by 30 goals than it getting better

1st and 2nd place in GSAx combined for 70 GSAx this past year in 117 games. You mean to tell me that you think Montembault and Primeau are going to finish 1st and 2nd in vezina voting respectively?

MTL was a dogshit team last year that has made 0 additions.

Utah fixed their defense, Ottawa fixed their goaltending, Seattle added Montour and Stephenson, NJD fixed their defense and goaltending, buffalo fixed their bottom 6

This is a prime example of a homer post

MTL goalies last year combined for 28 GSAx.

I very much like Montembault, but him and primeau aren't exactly what I'd call elite proven goalies.

If they live up to what they did last year, that would be a massive success for MTL in terms of goalies.

If they get 30 goals worse and finish around 0 GSAx, that would still be good for 2 goalies combining for 4 mill.

But expecting goaltending to improve by 36 goals is utter craziness. If someone thinks Montembault will play that well I recommend they place a large wager on him to win the vezina

 

[dgibb10]

Where did that player disappear to in the post season?

I'm sure his regular season goal total had nothing to do with being on a top scoring (6th) roster... Tocchet must not have got the memo that Hog was driving that scoring rather than riding on the coatails when he decided to reduce him to 10min/g in the playoffs.
Then again, at 12min/night in the regular season, doesn't appear the coach had much confidence in him in the regular season either lol

Arber Xhekaj played 15 minutes a night (and spent time in the AHL) as a dman on one of the worst dcores in hockey.

The ice time and coach trust argument doesn't favour Xhekaj.

 

[dgibb10]

One goal games suggest they were close and the difference between a loser point and 2 pointer is not much.
They had a TERRIBLE goal differential.
Take out Allen's numbers and prorate Monty's and CP"s numbers without considering any improvement would gain at 36 goals off the goal differential. If Caufeild-Suzuki-Slafkovsky had scored at the same rate in the first 41 games you could add another 23 goals to goals for. There is more but at this point but these 2 facets would put them in the hunt.

5th worst goal differential, 5th worst record checks out completely.

4th worst expected goal differential, 5th worst record checks out completely.
Amongst the youngest teams in the league with the youngest defense while dealing with a crippling amount of injuries. 8 point improvement in the standings two drafts into a rebuild.


Last year was a development year and 2 drafts into the rebuild.Back luck? I would define losing Dach 4 periods into the season from a freak event I would call unlucky myself along with a large body count of other injuries. I will state they they have started to get a handle on it and should continue along this line. I could see a 75 goal swing in the goal differential as the top end of the possible spectrum next year. I expect to see a lot of postings on how the Habs are over rated next year. But go on.

MTL went 7-10-9-16 in 1 score games lmao. How many points do you expect to gain from there?

MTL
7 regulation wins
10 overtime/shootout wins
16 overtime losses
9 regulation losses.

If you go 0.500 in these it would get you 5 extra standings points . Now ofc, since MTL is a below average team, it makes sense they are below average in close games.

Now, when you consider that the average team plays 16 overtime games, not 26 like MTL did, that would cut 5 points out there.

No points lost from "close game bad luck"

MTLs problem was not 1 score games. It was that they went 13-28 in the other games

 

[HuGo Sham]

they’re attached to Xhekaj and I can’t blame them.

To clear some cap and get rid of Poolman’s contract to accrue cap at the TDL rather than using LTIR.

We also are thin on the left side and we are thin down the middle. We have 3 centers and Suter who can play center but ideally we would want a permanent 4C (that is also right handed) to play that position and have Suter where Hoglander would normally be which is up and down the top 9.

Value wise seems a lot on our part, but this type of trade further increases our depth at pretty much all areas of our line up. Currently, we have Hughes and then Soucy and Forbort. If Soucy goes down with an injury which is a possibility, Forbort is playing 2LD. That is not ideal at all.

And with Xhekaj there’s potential for more ice time surprisingly than he would get with the Habs considering Matheson and Hutson will be taking up a large portion of ice time.

Don’t need “smurfs”? With Slafkovsky, Dach, Anderson, Armia in your top 9?

Exiting the rebuild? I mean I get that, but it’s likely Habs still consider this year to be more of transitional year and you don’t necessarily seem to have many great options after Slaf/Suzuki/Dach/Caufield. If anything, the assets you would get in this trade can be used as additional pieces to go along with other pieces you have to get players you’d want.

And that defense is pretty log jammed as it is.

maybe explain to your fanbase that he's a unique player with a 100 mph snapshot, who hits like a truck at 6'4 240 and is probably a top 10 fighter in the NHL. he's 23, and has a ceiling of a no.4. We're happy to gamble on that potential.
We don't need any more picks and Hoglander doesn't really fit a need.
I suspect habs will want to resign Evans to be a 4C after losing Dvorak

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

I must be missing something Hoglander is a top 6 winger option now that he had a breakout season, a 1st is just that a 1st which GM’s covet.

Why would Vancouver give that up plus an extra mid round pick for a 3rd line center Evans that’s a year away from UFA and a bruiser defender in Arber Xhekaj who will likely end up on IR again due to his style of play.

Vancouver would be trading off Poolman on LTIR for Xhekaj on IR or LTIR.

I don’t see why Vancouver gives up so much value for so little value in return.

Was thinking the same thing. Way too much value coming from us.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Arber Xhekaj played 15 minutes a night (and spent time in the AHL) as a dman on one of the worst dcores in hockey.

The ice time and coach trust argument doesn't favour Xhekaj.

we get it. He's overrated and a scrub who aint worth shit. That's why y'all keep wanting to trade for him

 

[dgibb10]

we get it. He's overrated and a scrub who aint worth shit. That's why y'all keep wanting to trade for him

Like how teams were desperate to acquire Josh Anderson?

 

[HuGo Sham]

This proposal is ludicrously bad for Van. If we are trading Hoglander and a 1st it has to be for a top of the lineup player not depth guys.


Without question the value favours Habs though. There's no reason not to take that much value. You can sign bruisers in UFA every yr for peanuts.

You were certainly able to get that Zadorov deal done for peanuts

Like how teams were desperate to acquire Josh Anderson

brilliant comparable

 

[LemonSauceD]

I started something didn’t I

 

[Ezpz]

Hoglander is the type of player teams dump in a cap crunch yearly. Middle six guys on non-elc contracts at fair value ala versteeg years ago aren't a premium anymore. He doesn't fit what Montreal is building in the top 9 as we're already trying to get rid of guys like Gallagher and RHP long term who play above their size.

Anyways a 30 point guy on an offensive juggernaut team is probably not a regular contributor on a basement team.


Xhekaj for a later first isn't worth it as it's been reported many times dozens of teams have offered that already. He is raw but he has immense talent on both sides of the rink on top of being the toughest guy in the league. No hurry to make a decision either.

It's more likely Harris is traded/waived or Struble starts in Laval. A 25th+ pick in 2025 isn't going to contribute until Nick Suzuki's contract is up, we're not at the stockpiling phase anymore.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Exiting the rebuild without a 1c, 1d and a 1G, seems destined for mediocrity. You guys have some good young wingers but they are the easiest pieces to trade or sign.

Hoglander definitely makes zero sense for you guys and WIFI makes no sense for us.

You guys need a top Centre and we need an RHD that won't block Willander and that looks like a TDL move.
Habs can make a package of picks, prospects to aquire one or more likely draft one after a bottom 5 finish this year.
Suzuki- Dach- Newhook is not gonna cut it, not even close!

Demidov wants to play C, there's also Dach, hutson, reinbacher, guhle, fowler...etc
suzuki plays like a low-end C.

what are you talking about?

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Xhekaj and Jake Evans for Hoglander, Poolman (IR/LTIR), 2025 1st, and an extra 3rd or 4th round pick.

Hoglander and his 24 goals last season is a cheap top 9 option at $1.1M. Agitator, high energy, offensive skill and could be a complimentary piece to the top 6. Also has breakout potential.

Canucks need a right hand centerman and some depth on the left side considering we are thin. After Hughes, it’s Soucy and Forbort.

Wow, one of your worst proposals yet, and that's saying something.

Why the shit would the Canucks give up all of that for two things we don't need?

We don't need a 3rd line C and we don't need a bottom pairing dman.

I'd like to see your proposal where Hoglander and a first gets a top of the lineup player .

You mean like what the Pens wanted from us for Guentzel, like that?

 

[jfhabs]

This is a prime example of a homer post

Why?
To be honest you can find homer post very easily. That one is a projection based on actual quantitative data and a bit of qualitative data / opinion (1st line projection, Dach unlucky injury, young team progressing).

Is it out there in terms of projecting a 75 goal swing? Probably in the most optimistic of scenarios, but not impossible.

 

[dgibb10]

Why?
To be honest you can find homer post very easily. That one is a projection based on actual quantitative data and a bit of qualitative data / opinion (1st line projection, Dach unlucky injury, young team progressing).

Is it out there in terms of projecting a 75 goal swing? Probably in the most optimistic of scenarios, but not impossible.

There is no data to suggest 20 games of Jake allen cost a team 36 goals. Jake Allen had a positive GSAX.

In order to improve by 36 goals in those games, you would need a 1.8 GAA, 1.8 GSAx/60 (for context Hellebuyuck won the vezina with 0.6 GSAx), and a 0.944 SV%.

Or in other words, better goaltending play than any goalie has ever had in the history of the NHL.

Caufield and Suzuki had a goal differential of about +9 after the new year. And a goal differential of about +3 before the new year. Continuing at that new year pace at the beginning of the year would improve your goal differential by about 6 goals.

If we look to the PP, MTLs PP was bottom 5 in goal differential after the new year, and bottom 2 in expected goal differential

It was an improvement of 0.2 goals/60 minutes on the PP from before the new year (or about 1 goal every 150 power plays). So nothing there to suggest an improvement, and in fact the PP actually was WORSE in terms of expected goals after the new year.

Kirby Dach has a career high of 18 points 5v5. His rates are in line with mostly 3rd/4th line defensive players. And this is with GREAT linemates in suzuki and caufield and kane and cat that he will no longer be playing with since Slaf took his spot. He will not move the needle 5v5.

 

[jfhabs]

I must be missing something Hoglander is a top 6 winger option now that he had a breakout season, a 1st is just that a 1st which GM’s covet.

Why would Vancouver give that up plus an extra mid round pick for a 3rd line center Evans that’s a year away from UFA and a bruiser defender in Arber Xhekaj who will likely end up on IR again due to his style of play.

Vancouver would be trading off Poolman on LTIR for Xhekaj on IR or LTIR.

I don’t see why Vancouver gives up so much value for so little value in return.

Probably because you don't have a good understanding of what Xhekaj is.
Value favors Montreal in a vacuum, but the trade makes no sense for us.

Xhekaj has a very good chance of being an equal or better version of Zadorov for the long term.

 

[Theodore450]

Why?
To be honest you can find homer post very easily. That one is a projection based on actual quantitative data and a bit of qualitative data / opinion (1st line projection, Dach unlucky injury, young team progressing).

Is it out there in terms of projecting a 75 goal swing? Probably in the most optimistic of scenarios, but not impossible.

A homer post is an argument that is presented as being a very likely outcome.
You can dress the argument all you want, but everything in that structure screams Homer. Terrible argument

 

[Qwijibo]

I started something didn’t I

Not really. There doesn't seem to be a single person from either fanbase who thinks your proposal is a good idea

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Hoglander is the type of player teams dump in a cap crunch yearly. Middle six guys on non-elc contracts at fair value ala versteeg years ago aren't a premium anymore. He doesn't fit what Montreal is building in the top 9 as we're already trying to get rid of guys like Gallagher and RHP long term who play above their size.

Anyways a 30 point guy on an offensive juggernaut team is probably not a regular contributor on a basement team.


Xhekaj for a later first isn't worth it as it's been reported many times dozens of teams have offered that already. He is raw but he has immense talent on both sides of the rink on top of being the toughest guy in the league. No hurry to make a decision either.

It's more likely Harris is traded/waived or Struble starts in Laval. A 25th+ pick in 2025 isn't going to contribute until Nick Suzuki's contract is up, we're not at the stockpiling phase anymore.

Ahhhhhh, so you've never watched Hog play then? Maybe watch? Do some actual research?

 

[LemonSauceD]

Wow, one of your worst proposals yet, and that's saying something.

Why the shit would the Canucks give up all of that for two things we don't need?

We don't need a 3rd line C and we don't need a bottom pairing dman.



You mean like what the Pens wanted from us for Guentzel, like that?

When was the last time I made a proposal?

I never said we needed a 3C. We could use a right handed center and especially at the 4C position considering Tocchet’s preference on having Suter play wing. And Xhekaj (or any other left handed defenseman) would be much needed depth on the left side that currently has Hughes, and two injury prone defenders in Soucy and Forbort.

What I offered is definitely an overpayment after reading some other peoples criticism, but I find it adorable, honestly speaking, that you still have this weird obsession of trying to find ways to attack me whenever you can, even to go as far as to lie. But looking through your post history, it seems attacking others is pretty much all you have to contribute.

good ol main boards keyboard warrior

 

[jfhabs]

A homer post is an argument that is presented as being a very likely outcome.
You can dress the argument all you want, but everything in that structure screams Homer. Terrible argument

Well, in my opinion, you can debate what he said with facts and other perspectives.

Essentially he's drawing the most optimistic scenario. You can call that a homer, but don't think his arguments are terrible at all. Just the perspective on the outcome.

The dressing (read the justifications/facts) >>>>>> the argument

 

[dgibb10]

Well, in my opinion, you can debate what he said with facts and other perspectives.

Essentially he's drawing the most optimistic scenario. You can call that a homer, but don't think his arguments are terrible at all. Just the perspective on the outcome.

The dressing (read the justifications/facts) >>>>>> the argument

There is no possible justification to state that 20 games of Jake Allen cost MTL 36 goals.

 

[Warh1ppy]

Xhekaj and Jake Evans for Hoglander, Poolman (IR/LTIR), 2025 1st, and an extra 3rd or 4th round pick.

Hoglander and his 24 goals last season is a cheap top 9 option at $1.1M. Agitator, high energy, offensive skill and could be a complimentary piece to the top 6. Also has breakout potential.

Canucks need a right hand centerman and some depth on the left side considering we are thin. After Hughes, it’s Soucy and Forbort.

OK ok ok hold up. Just so I am clear.

You are suggesting sending a near 29 year old centre and a 5-6 defenseman, for a 1.1 million a year contract 20+ goal scoring kid, a 1st AND an extra 3rd or 4th as well as taking the only LTIR contract the Canucks can use?

Canucks rebuttal

Guhle and Dach with a 1st and 5th for Juulsen and Garland.

Come on my dude....you know that won't fly on either account

 

[LemonSauceD]

OK ok ok hold up. Just so I am clear.

You are suggesting sending a near 29 year old centre and a 5-6 defenseman, for a 1.1 million a year contract 20+ goal scoring kid, a 1st AND an extra 3rd or 4th as well as taking the only LTIR contract the Canucks can use?

Canucks rebuttal

Guhle and Dach with a 1st and 5th for Juulsen and Garland.

Come on my dude....you know that won't fly on either account

You’re comparing Poolman and Hoglander to Guhle and Dach? LOL

You can disagree my proposal but dude… your way off base yourself.