Proposal: Vancouver - Montreal

[Rowlet]

Value favours MTL but the pieces don't really fill their needs, also the Canucks could probably do better than Xhekaj

 

[Johnsie19]

I wouldn't do it because I don't believe Hoglander has that much value. He's like Paul Byron. Sure, he's got heart but I don't believe he'll cone close to replicating a season where he shot at 20% efficiency. Plus Montreal has to take a $2m ltir contract as well. Montreal has young players that can fill the role Hoglander would play.
Is the valuecwaybiff base? Probably not, but the fit isn't there.

yup and Xhekaj does little for us too considering we need a top 4 dman or a top line winger. No one is trading a 1st+ for depth.

 

[Wayfarer13]

1 goal games may suggest that at first. But you'd only expect 1 goal losses to turn into better standings if they were almost all regulation losses. Again, based on how MTL played over the course of the year, they finished exactly where they should have.

MTLs goaltending is likely to be worse rather than better. You're expecting a 36 goal improvement in net? Utter delusion. MTL already had a +28 GSAx last year. +36 goals would be SIXTY FOUR GOALS SAVED ABOVE EXPECTATION. To provide some context, Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman combined for 44 GSAx last year.

It's MUCH more likely that MTLs goaltending ends up average next year and gets WORSE by 30 goals than it getting better

1st and 2nd place in GSAx combined for 70 GSAx this past year in 117 games. You mean to tell me that you think Montembault and Primeau are going to finish 1st and 2nd in vezina voting respectively?

MTL was a dogshit team last year that has made 0 additions.

Utah fixed their defense, Ottawa fixed their goaltending, Seattle added Montour and Stephenson, NJD fixed their defense and goaltending, buffalo fixed their bottom 6


MTL goalies last year combined for 28 GSAx.

I very much like Montembault, but him and primeau aren't exactly what I'd call elite proven goalies.

If they live up to what they did last year, that would be a massive success for MTL in terms of goalies.

If they get 30 goals worse and finish around 0 GSAx, that would still be good for 2 goalies combining for 4 mill.

But expecting goaltending to improve by 36 goals is utter craziness. If someone thinks Montembault will play that well I recommend they place a large wager on him to win the vezina

To lose by 1 goal in OT or shootout says you stayed even longer with an opponent. than to lose in regulation The game was in doubt for longer period.
They had 3 headed monster in net last year and have moved the weak link of the 3 with both goaltenders being of the age where expecting improvement is more than reasonable. Prorate the numbers and it is a 36 goal against improvement.The blueline will have 1 more year of experience. Gsax? All I am saying if they merely repeat what they accomplish in the level of play they showed last year. What Allen accomplished they had no hand in those minutes.Are giving a Sins of the Father type of an argument? I really don't how one can make a save front the bench or in the stands.What Swayman did has no standing here. Don't recall saying anything about the Vezina trophy. Please be considerate and don't Strawman me. Average goaltending is fine for this year as I am looking for the trend of improvement. While possible if they have 800 man games lost to injury I don't see the GA increasing by 30 goals. I do reasonably expect a young defensive unit that will continue to get better.

 

[Wayfarer13]

MTL went 7-10-9-16 in 1 score games lmao. How many points do you expect to gain from there?

MTL
7 regulation wins
10 overtime/shootout wins
16 overtime losses
9 regulation losses.

If you go 0.500 in these it would get you 5 extra standings points . Now ofc, since MTL is a below average team, it makes sense they are below average in close games.

Now, when you consider that the average team plays 16 overtime games, not 26 like MTL did, that would cut 5 points out there.

No points lost from "close game bad luck"

MTLs problem was not 1 score games. It was that they went 13-28 in the other games

Yah almost have it but it's like being in orbit. Yah tried to fall to earth and missed. Take those 36 goals out of the equation and what would the numbers look like?. 3 drafts into the rebuild and the team is fine and on the right track.I suspect you will e be posting on how this team is overrated this season.The spectrum as where this team will finish runs from a playoff spot to a lottery pick.

 

[dgibb10]

To lose by 1 goal in OT or shootout says you stayed even longer with an opponent. than to lose in regulation The game was in doubt for longer period.
They had 3 headed monster in net last year and have moved the weak link of the 3 with both goaltenders being of the age where expecting improvement is more than reasonable. Prorate the numbers and it is a 36 goal against improvement.The blueline will have 1 more year of experience. Gsax? All I am saying if they merely repeat what they accomplish in the level of play they showed last year. What Allen accomplished they had no hand in those minutes.Are giving a Sins of the Father type of an argument? I really don't how one can make a save front the bench or in the stands.What Swayman did has no standing here. Don't recall saying anything about the Vezina trophy. Please be considerate and don't Strawman me. Average goaltending is fine for this year as I am looking for the trend of improvement. While possible if they have 800 man games lost to injury I don't see the GA increasing by 30 goals. I do reasonably expect a young defensive unit that will continue to get better.

Mtl had a record that was perfectly indicative of how they played. With a 0.500 record in 1 goal games and an average amount of overtime games, that would leave them with exactly the same amount of points a they actually got.

Show your work on a 36 goal improvement. Allen let in 74 goals on 686 shots. 36 fewer goals would be 38 goals on 686 shots, or a 0.945 sv% and a 1.8 GAA behind a putrid defense. You're suggesting a mark that would be by far the best goaltending performance the NHL has ever seen.

MTL got above average goaltending last year. If you expect them to have average goaltending this year, that means the goaltending will be WORSE.

Yah almost have but it's like being in orbit. Yah tried to fall to earth and missed. Take those 36 goals out of the equation and what would the numbers look like?. 3 drafts into the rebuild and the team is fine and on the right track.I suspect you will e be posting on how this team is overrated this season.The spectrum as where this team will finish runs from a playoff spot to a lottery pick.

Again, where the absolute f*** are you pulling 36 goals from. Again. 36 goals is the difference between 60 games of Jake allen and 60 games of Connor Hellebuyuck last year

 

[Wayfarer13]

Mtl had a record that was perfectly indicative of how they played. With a 0.500 record in 1 goal games and an average amount of overtime games, that would leave them with exactly the same amount of points a they actually got.

Show your work on a 36 goal improvement. Allen let in 74 goals on 686 shots. 36 fewer goals would be 38 goals on 686 shots, or a 0.945 sv% and a 1.8 GAA behind a putrid defense. You're suggesting a mark that would be by far the best goaltending performance the NHL has ever seen.

MTL got above average goaltending last year. If you expect them to have average goaltending this year, that means the goaltending will be WORSE.


Again, where the absolute f*** are you pulling 36 goals from. Again. 36 goals is the difference between 60 games of Jake allen and 60 games of Connor Hellebuyuck last year

Took Cp and Monty's minutes added them together. added the ga together and pro rated them.
How good are you at picking stocks or knowing where my missing table saw is?The 36 goal drop in ga brings them in and about the middle of the pack.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Mtl had a record that was perfectly indicative of how they played. With a 0.500 record in 1 goal games and an average amount of overtime games, that would leave them with exactly the same amount of points a they actually got.

Show your work on a 36 goal improvement. Allen let in 74 goals on 686 shots. 36 fewer goals would be 38 goals on 686 shots, or a 0.945 sv% and a 1.8 GAA behind a putrid defense. You're suggesting a mark that would be by far the best goaltending performance the NHL has ever seen.

MTL got above average goaltending last year. If you expect them to have average goaltending this year, that means the goaltending will be WORSE.


Again, where the absolute f*** are you pulling 36 goals from. Again. 36 goals is the difference between 60 games of Jake allen and 60 games of Connor Hellebuyuck last year

As I just said a 36 ga improvement would bring them to the middle of the pack on just this one factor alone. I would consider that to be a success at this stage of the rebuild.36 goals in itself will flip more than a couple losses to wins.Does not mean a cup run is in the works this coming year. The team is trending in the right direction.

 

[Treb]

Exiting the rebuild!!??? Have you seen the roster lately? Do you remember the division they're in? They are currently more likely to pick top 5-10 again in 2025 than appear to be exiting the rebuild. (I know that things can change before the season starts)

I don't think we have the same definition of exiting the rebuild, because what you described is exiting the rebuild to me.

 

[dgibb10]

Took Cp and Monty's minutes added them together. added the ga together and pro rated them.
How good are you at picking stocks or knowing where my missing table saw is?The 36 goal drop in ga brings them in and about the middle of the pack.

Cayden Primeau had 2.99 GAA.
Samuel Montembault had a 3.14 GAA
Jake Allen had a 3.65 GAA

At best you are talking about a 0.65 GAA improvement over 20 games that allen played, or about 13 goals. Now of course Allen played much harder competition than primeau, who made just 6 of his starts against playoff teams compared to 13 for allen. (6 goals allowed vs vegas, 5 goals vs florida, 4 vs Carolina, 3 vs tampa, 6 vs tampa, 4 vs NYR, and MTL did not win a single game against a playoff team with cayden primeau in net)

Now, again, if you look deeper than the basic numbers.

MTL combined for 25 GSAx last year. Suggesting even a 15 goal improvement there brings them to 40 goals above expectation, or again, like I said, right around what Swayman/Ullmark was this past year

A 36 goal improvement from goaltending would be 61 GSAx. Now at this point, you are talking about getting the best goaltending in the NHL. Better than what Hellebuyuck and Brossoit did last year

 

[Qwijibo]

yup and Xhekaj does little for us too considering we need a top 4 dman or a top line winger. No one is trading a 1st+ for depth.

Like I said, there's no fit. Let's all just take a breathe, mock the OP and move on

 

[dgibb10]

As I just said a 36 ga improvement would bring them to the middle of the pack on just this one factor alone. I would consider that to be a success at this stage of the rebuild.36 goals in itself will flip more than a couple losses to wins.Does not mean a cup run is in the works this coming year. The team is trending in the right direction.

MTL ranked bottom 5 in the league in goal differential, expected goal differential, shot differential, had the worst PK in hockey, a bad power play.

And you are blaming 20 games of Jake Allen. he went 5-8 in games against playoff teams compared to 0-6 for primeau and 8-15 for montembault

 

[biturbo19]

The thing with Zadorov is that he was a 28/29 year old finished product with a year left with some salary and a history of being a so so to decent bottom pairing defenseman, so value wise, i think it was appropriate (although I do believe he came at a slight under cost regardless).

I do think Hoglander + 1st should be in play pretty much as soon as the season starts or earlier in the season to address other areas (or a major area) of the team, considering he’s really our only valuable trade piece that is expendable. Perhaps not for this proposal.

The thing is, that "finished product" is really more what the Canucks need at this time anyway. I think you're also really underselling what Zadorov was, even at the time of the trade before his big playoffs for Vancouver. He was basically the "what you hope Xhekaj can turn into" sort of #4/5 tweener.

When you can get those stopgap plug 'n play veterans for a lot cheaper, that's the better option for the Canucks right now. Allows them to use those more premium assets to get other and better stopgaps.

Zadorov trade was seen as a bad trade for Calgary and he was only a rental. I also think Zadorov overachieved during his stint in Vancouver. I think they dodged a bullet letting him walk.

Xhekaj has the potential to be a long term solution. Xhekaj is already a 3rd pair defenseman, the question is, can he be a 2nd pairing guy facing skilled/fast players every night.

For the Habs, that long-term aspect is important. Hence why they wouldn't want to give him up. But from a Vancouver perspective, a Zadorov type trade for a rental is more cost-effective for shoring up what the Canucks actually need right now, in the phase they're actually in.

A long-term potential #4/5D would be nice to have, but it's not a priority worth spending a premium on. They need more a...proven, established Top-4D right now. Among other things. Where the most realistic option for getting that piece at an affordable acquisition price...is probably trading for a "rental". That market is more efficient in the short-term.


Basically...the Habs are in a position to "wait and find out" if Xhekaj can become that 2nd pairing guy long-term for them. The Canucks are in much less of a "wait and see" phase of trying to push for a Cup. Their window is now. So they have less time/patience to wait around and see if a guy develops into that for them. Especially at the "price premium" that comes along with a potential "long-term solution" over a rental.

It just makes far more sense for the Canucks to spend their available capital (1st, Hoggy, etc.) on an established version of what they need, even if that's just as a rental that they may or may not want to tender an extension to if it fits really well.

 

[Miller Time]

It was his first postseason, in essentially his first full nhl season. He worked his way up to the top line which happened to feature a useless EP40 at the time.

Just looking at numbers you won't get that he worked his way up from 4th line to 1st line. Missed it completely. It was his first postseason so what. He did all that damage last yr at even strength.

12min regular season
10min post season

Spin however you'd like lol

I love the "he was on a top scoring team" argument. Ya and he was 4th on the team in goals despite playing low minutes.

Armia was 4th in goals for the Habs...
RHP was 4th the year before...

That's a pretty irrelevant metric.

Who's coattails did he ride haha I'd love you to try and explain that one. Sam Lafferty? Nils Aman?

Sorry, thought you were a nucks fan and would be aware of the quality of offensive players that led the way to the teams 6th OA scoring....

Except they've thrown young Kaiden Guhle into the fire.

Kaiden Guhle plays some of the hardest minutes in hockey at age 22. A big part of the reason he HAS to play such hard minutes is because Arber Xhekaj plays such sheltered minutes.

Nope.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Xhekaj and Jake Evans for Hoglander, Poolman (IR/LTIR), 2025 1st, and an extra 3rd or 4th round pick.

Hoglander and his 24 goals last season is a cheap top 9 option at $1.1M. Agitator, high energy, offensive skill and could be a complimentary piece to the top 6. Also has breakout potential.

Canucks need a right hand centerman and some depth on the left side considering we are thin. After Hughes, it’s Soucy and Forbort.

I feel like you overcompensated to not get downvoted to oblivion by Habs fans and accidentally made this suck for the Canucks.

I like the targets a lot, though!

E: Doh, forgot what site I'm on but you know what I meant.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Don’t see why Montreal does this. They can get another W in FA and keep the assets.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Cayden Primeau had 2.99 GAA.
Samuel Montembault had a 3.14 GAA
Jake Allen had a 3.65 GAA

At best you are talking about a 0.65 GAA improvement over 20 games that allen played, or about 13 goals. Now of course Allen played much harder competition than primeau, who made just 6 of his starts against playoff teams compared to 13 for allen. (6 goals allowed vs vegas, 5 goals vs florida, 4 vs Carolina, 3 vs tampa, 6 vs tampa, 4 vs NYR, and MTL did not win a single game against a playoff team with cayden primeau in net)

Now, again, if you look deeper than the basic numbers.

MTL combined for 25 GSAx last year. Suggesting even a 15 goal improvement there brings them to 40 goals above expectation, or again, like I said, right around what Swayman/Ullmark was this past year

A 36 goal improvement from goaltending would be 61 GSAx. Now at this point, you are talking about getting the best goaltending in the NHL. Better than what Hellebuyuck and Brossoit did last year

Ok .Basic math here.
Monty-2428min 127Ga
CP-1325 min 66GA
2428+1325=3753min
3753 divided by 60 =62.55games
127+66=193 goals against
Divide 193 by 62.55=3.08 GAA
Multiply 3.08x82=252.56 prorated
The Habs allowed 289 goals last year
289-252.55=36.45 goals
This alone would have placed them as a middling team in goals against
Don't care about what Hellebuyuck or Brossoit or Swayman or Ullmark did as Winnipeg as those teams are at a different part of their competitive window and don't know why they are even part of your discussion.
Both Monty and CP whether you like it or not are still the window where growth in their play can be expected.
The blueline for the last 2 years have been the least experienced in the league and likely if not then in the running for it again. It's more than reasonable to expect to see improvement year over year. If you expect to see these kids to out of the league in a year then please clarify that position.

MTL ranked bottom 5 in the league in goal differential, expected goal differential, shot differential, had the worst PK in hockey, a bad power play.

And you are blaming 20 games of Jake Allen. he went 5-8 in games against playoff teams compared to 0-6 for primeau and 8-15 for montembault

One of the youngest teams in the league with the youngest blueline. Situation will rectify itself.

 

[Wayfarer13]

MTL went 7-10-9-16 in 1 score games lmao. How many points do you expect to gain from there?

MTL
7 regulation wins
10 overtime/shootout wins
16 overtime losses
9 regulation losses.

If you go 0.500 in these it would get you 5 extra standings points . Now ofc, since MTL is a below average team, it makes sense they are below average in close games.

Now, when you consider that the average team plays 16 overtime games, not 26 like MTL did, that would cut 5 points out there.

No points lost from "close game bad luck"

MTLs problem was not 1 score games. It was that they went 13-28 in the other games

One of the youngest teams in the league with the youngest blueline. Hung very tough in half the the games which they still in. Here is another stat empty net goals. Habs scored 5 while allowing 14 when they pulled the goaltender which they did this 32 times

 

[Ford Prefect]

Habs don’t need picks and young top 9 players? News to me. Aren’t you still in a rebuild?


Yeah I can see the risk of trading him for sure, from a Habs perspective.



Barf

Hopefully coming out of one. But it's true, we really don't need more picks. In the last 3 years we've had 7 first round picks: Slafkovsky, Mesar, Reinbacher, Demidov, Hage, NY Islanders '22 used to trade for Dach, and Florida's '23 used to trade for Newhook. That's 6 forwards to go along with Suzuki and Caufield. We also have 2 more firsts in the upcoming draft, and 7 picks in the first three rounds. Aside from the noted prospects, we have Mailloux and Hutson coming up to go along with Roy, Beck, Kappanen and Xhekaj.

We really are a team where a late first isn't that appealing. At some point you need to plug them in and see what you've got. Like I mean sure, if we're trading off an asset at the TDL or pulling a Monahan type move we'll take it. But at this point the team is more focused on developping the assets currently in the system and seeing where they fit rather than acquiring more. If anything, they may combine some their futures and go big game hunting. Wouldn't surprise me if both firsts are on the table next year (barring everything going off the rails and they have another top 5 pick).

 

[Legend123]

sure because theres a chance vancouver sucks this year and that pick could be a top 15 / 20 pick

 

[Breakers]

Ermmm... so you want Hoglander to center your 4th line?

I’d rather have the younger better player in Hoglander.
Pretty easy to see why

 

[bud12]

Hoglander>Dach tbf

but Guhle is in a tier of his own

yeah sure

 

[viceroy]

I’d rather have the younger better player in Hoglander.
Pretty easy to see why

So that's a yes? You'd rather your little heart and soul LW play 4th line centre duties than Jake Evans? Different positions hermano, different needs. Your hate is clouding your reason.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

So that's a yes? You'd rather your little heart and soul LW play 4th line centre duties than Jake Evans? Different positions hermano, different needs. Your hate is clouding your reason.

He'd rather have the better player, that was his point, we already have a perfectly fine 4th line C, your bias seems to clouding your sense of reality.

Despite what the OP has made up, we don't actually need a 4th line C or a 3rd line C, nor do we need a bottom pairing dman.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yes. We are on our upward curve (which actually started this year if you actually look further than draft position). We are on the build phase, not rebuild. I expect to be in the playoffs by 2026 at the latest.



We have a top centre signed for 6 more years.

We also have a pretty deep D pool and G pool that don't really benefit from further tanking except if we could get a bona fide blue chip prospect which a late 1st is very unlikely to provide.

I would be very surprised to finish bottom 5 this year, unless significant injuries occur.

Suzuki is fine at 1C.
Dach is fine as 2C if he can play like before his injury. If not, use him and extra assets to get one who do.
Newhook likely ends up on the wing as backup FO taker. Kapanen and Beck are the aim for 3C.
Evans is fine as 4C, else you get the loser of Kapanen/Beck or some FA.



If the Canucks are in the teens, fire their GM.

So you expect to be top 4 in the Atlantic in about 18 months from now.

Who are you expecting to knock out?

 

[Treb]

So you expect to be top 4 in the Atlantic in about 18 months from now.

Who are you expecting to knock out?

Who knows, ask me in 12 months.