Vancouver led the league in points at Christmas, Can they continue this run into the New Year?

[North Cole]

What does this post mean?

Poster couldn't tell the difference between kane and pinto.

 

[Brookbank]

Being relatively healthy helps but again you see some weaknesses when soucy goes down. Our D is still not that strong. Myers is still a liability in that defense. Hoping Soucy can come back soon and Alvin makes another trade to bolster that defense. Could come down to kuzmenko getting traded for more defensive help. Even a Tanev would help pur defense especially since Cole sometimes can have brainfarts.

Compared to what team ? Ben Hutton and Las Vegas ?

With Saucy healthy, the Canucks are one of the better defensive depth teams in the league. We added Hronek, Zadorov, Soucy and Cole. While having Hughs and Myers. Myers is better than most Canucks fans give him credit for too. I swear we could add Dhalin and some Canucks fans will still trot out the line "well we can use another D man...."

Its a salary cap league. Every team is built on compromises. You cant just keep adding players until you don't notice one defensive mistake anymore.

 

[Brookbank]

Brave assumption to think they make it

This guy is still praying for a collapse every night.

 

[kranuck]

Hope not, NYR is a tough team but am not even thinking that far. Am just thinking about Canucks making the playoffs first. If they go to finals this year, that would be insanity which no one would have predicted and would be a pretty good story.

Why do you think the rangers are a tough team when they don’t even have a positive goal differential at 5 on 5?

You’re going on about how no Canucks fan actually thinks the team is good but you’re all about how awesome the f***ing rags are.

Ridiculous.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

That's a fairly flawed comparison still, the Canucks play very defensively when ahead, which they usually are, the Canucks are something like 20-0 when leading through 40 minutes. The increased defense when ahead leads to inflated shots against after scoring a few quick goals on high danger chances, which drastically increases their PDO. If you look at the stats, the Canucks usually surpass other teams high danger chances when playing, despite reduced shots.

Boston had higher SF and lower SA because they never took their foot off the gas. The Canucks have a different strategy, which seems to combine early aggressive play with locking down the game using their team defense and powerplay prowess.

This isn't to say the Canucks are sustainable or that 4 players will continue to shoot at 20%+ going forward, just that stat reading is hard. Additionally, its hard to compare 30 games of shooting percentage to a full season.

Are the Canucks playing above their heads? Probably, at least a bit, but some of the "normal" stats people look at to evaluate teams aren't as copy/paste for the Canucks as they were for past teams with high PDO because of team systems, though I'd absolutely expect them to regress, however part of that is other teams figuring out how to play against them better. Looking at the PDO and shooting chances just doesn't paint the whole picture.

edit: the Canucks are 7th in high danger chances for, and 27th, and 20th, in medium and low danger chances, despite being 24th in shots for, indicating its not just luck, the team is getting into the right spot

natural stat trick has Canucks (5on5) /60 with 23rd xGF, 24th SCF, 23rd HDCF, 26th HDSF

 

[kranuck]

natural stat trick has Canucks (5on5) /60 with 23rd xGF, 24th SCF, 23rd HDCF, 26th HDSF

1 GF/60
2 GA/60
2 GF%

Expected goals don’t matter. Pure cope for haters.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

1 GF/60
2 GA/60
2 GF%

Expected goals don’t matter. Pure cope for haters.

this discussion is about PDO. Do you know what that is?

 

[jackjohnson]

Why do you think the rangers are a tough team when they don’t even have a positive goal differential at 5 on 5?

You’re going on about how no Canucks fan actually thinks the team is good but you’re all about how awesome the f***ing rags are.

Ridiculous.

Relax man, am just writing my point of view. Not every canucks fan has to agree with you. If you think Canucks can win the cup then you should put $10,000 on it.

 

[kranuck]

this discussion is about PDO. Do you know what that is?

A metric that's largely useless.

Relax man, am just writing my point of view. Not every canucks fan has to agree with you. If you think Canucks can win the cup then you should put $10,000 on it.

No, you're writing for every Canuck fan. You said so.

I'm sick of fake fans who feel the need to justify themselves to others by writing about how the team actually sucks and you know they suck.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

A metric that's largely useless.

Out of curiosity, if you flipped a coin 3 times and they all came out heads would you be convinced the next flip is heads?

 

[OG Eberle]

Leading the league in points is one thing, but the real question here about how good the Canucks are this season is...

What is Rick Tocchet's coaching points percentage over his first 300 games and how does it compare to Sheldon Keefe's playoff record?

 

[WolfgangPuck]

jinx thread
im expecting a losing streak to begin now

 

[Tob]

This is going to be the Vancouver version of that Oilers cup or more like bust thread

 

[Rowlet]

natural stat trick has Canucks (5on5) /60 with 23rd xGF, 24th SCF, 23rd HDCF, 26th HDSF

Cool, I never mentioned any of those, nor did I say that advanced stats aren't valid, merely that comparing the Canucks and Bruins based on shots is incredibly silly, as the Canucks stop shooting the puck and surrender a ton of low danger shots when ahead.

edit: moneypuck has them 7th in HDSF, and stat trick has them 27th in most HDGA, but again, the point is that you can't accurately compare two teams just by shot numbers when one of those teams is choosing not to shoot the puck as much, and gives away a ton of low danger shots.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Cool, I never mentioned any of those, nor did I say that advanced stats aren't valid, merely that comparing the Canucks and Bruins based on shots is incredibly silly, as the Canucks stop shooting the puck and surrender a ton of low danger shots when ahead.

edit: moneypuck has them 7th in HDSF, and stat trick has them 27th in most HDGA, but again, the point is that you can't accurately compare two teams just by shot numbers when one of those teams is choosing not to shoot the puck as much, and gives away a ton of low danger shots.

I think you're misunderstanding. YOU are waiving away pdo and scoring metrics and giving some lame excuse like Canucks don't try when they are in the lea. Every year there is a team who think they are theyre the exception to pdo based off their system focusing on quality over quantity.

 

[Rowlet]

I think you're misunderstanding. YOU are waiving away pdo and scoring metrics and giving some lame excuse like Canucks don't try when they are in the lea. Every year there is a team who think they are theyre the exception to pdo based off their system focusing on quality over quantity.

I've said four times in the last two pages that the Canucks are playing above their head and will regress. You really think I'm waiving away PDO?

I didn't say they don't try, I said they play and play more defensively.

 

[kranuck]

Out of curiosity, if you flipped a coin 3 times and they all came out heads would you be convinced the next flip is heads?

No, because unlike PDO obsessed people I do understand the gamblers fallacy and basic statistics.

I think you're misunderstanding. YOU are waiving away pdo and scoring metrics and giving some lame excuse like Canucks don't try when they are in the lea. Every year there is a team who think they are theyre the exception to pdo based off their system focusing on quality over quantity.

Please name these teams.

 

[BurnabyJoe7]

No, because unlike PDO obsessed people I do understand the gamblers fallacy and basic statistics.


Please name these teams.

You probably have a poor understanding of statistics if you think PDO is useless. The Canucks have a higher PDO this season than any team has ever had since it started being recorded. PDO is also a black and white stat without a qualitative factor.

I see the argument that a team with a high PDO is a good team because they are opportunistic and have good goaltending (which I think the Canucks are and have), but they are bottom 12 in the league at driving play at 5 on 5.

Say what you want about PDO, but the Canucks are giving up more chances than they create at 5 on 5 which has never been a recipe for success in the playoffs. All of the recent cup winners have been at least in the top half of the league at driving play and are often near the top.

 

[Bank Shot]

Cool, I never mentioned any of those, nor did I say that advanced stats aren't valid, merely that comparing the Canucks and Bruins based on shots is incredibly silly, as the Canucks stop shooting the puck and surrender a ton of low danger shots when ahead.

edit: moneypuck has them 7th in HDSF, and stat trick has them 27th in most HDGA, but again, the point is that you can't accurately compare two teams just by shot numbers when one of those teams is choosing not to shoot the puck as much, and gives away a ton of low danger shots.

Canucks are 25th in the league in shots percentage 5v5 when TIED.

Seems like you are trying to create a narrative that doesn't actually exist.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

nope. they got an unsustainable PDO ATM. They'll be dropping.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Canucks are 25th in the league in shots percentage 5v5 when TIED.

Seems like you are trying to create a narrative that doesn't actually exist.

Source?

 

[kranuck]

You probably have a poor understanding of statistics if you think PDO is useless. The Canucks have a higher PDO this season than any team has ever had since it started being recorded. PDO is also a black and white stat without a qualitative factor.

Highest ever if you ignore Vegas last playoffs.

Canucks are 25th in the league in shots percentage 5v5 when TIED.

Seems like you are trying to create a narrative that doesn't actually exist.

Lies.

They are 27th according to nhl.com.

 

[Bobby9]

I think they played above their heads the 1st half and will settle in to 5-10th overall as the season progresses.

 

[Chairman Maouth]

This thread is a reminder of how much I hate advanced stats. I think I said earlier in here that I watch the games. At the end of each game I compile the stats. We either won or we lost.

Canucks will finish the season top 5 or so in the league.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Highest ever if you ignore Vegas last playoffs.

we should ignore it since it's a small sample size...if you think the Canucks will sustain this record-high PDO over 82 games, you're mistaken

Just tell me what Bostons PDO was last year. And what the rest of the leagues was.

very high, mainly due to goaltending and not shooting %...what's your point?