B
I actually think people underestimate Cruz.
dude, I swear, when i see people commenting online about this fight, you'd think Cruz was -200 betting odd favorite.
In the context of current elite level MMA, TJ's striking game is just more suited to that level. Cruz's game probably represents the best of an older generations where you'd find most champions being outfighters whose goal is to hit and not be hit.
The most common thing that you see in all the current UFC champions not named Holly Holm (mostly because the division has not quite evolved to that level yet) is that all of them can actually stand their ground and battle in the pocket. It has to be said that Cruz doesn't do that in the striking context.
Cruz's movement is based on him not wanting to get hit whereas TJ doesn't ever take extra defensive precaution than what he needs. The less you "need" something to be effective the better the odds you have at winning at the currrent mma championship level.
Cruz's solution to being unable to stand his ground & command respect with his striking has been the usage of his wrestling. That's the one reason why Cruz's footwork works well. He blends his wrestling with his footwork extremely well whereas TJ keeps his striking and wrestling separate.
The winner of this fight will be the one who can command the wrestling. If Cruz can't take TJ down multiple times, TJ probably just breaks down apart the striking game of Cruz. That's what makes me lean on TJ: he's got excellent wrestling, has never been taken down and whoever has ever tried to engage him on the ground ended getting their back taken by Dillashaw (that includes Joe Soto, Barao, Assuncao... guys i think have better ground game than Cruz)