GDT: UFA Frenzy 2024 - We're ALL Gonna Die

[CanesFanBudMan]

Ehlers, McG, 2nd for Necas, KK?

Was thinking this but probably swap Drury for KK.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Also: compare apples to apples. Don't compare Nino's pace to Svech's peak.

I already said “the usual disclaimers about pace apply”, I get the distinction here. In the case of 2021, we’re using a full season sample… it’s just not 82 games because of COVID cancellations.

The thing is, even if you take Svech’s paces for any given year you get the same conclusion. To get him above a 30-goal pace requires cherry-picking some really specific and really short stretches which aren’t representative of anything at all.

Point being, unless someone looked at Nino during those 40-60 game stretches and thought “wow this guy is playing like a cornerstone of a franchise” then there’s no reason they should be thinking the same about what Svech has shown so far.

Svech is clearly the more productive player when healthy.

But the gap isn’t huge, and “when healthy” is a pretty big caveat for Svech.

To bring another player into it, Voracek was another big bodied winger who teased everyone with high-end skill through his early 20s. He finally broke out and became a PPG player — not among the highest tier of wingers, but at least respectable as a main scoring option — at exactly the point in his career where Svech is right now.

We’re at the point with his career where it’s fair to ask when the main course is going to arrive. To go back to where we started in this conversation, this is no longer a roster than can hide him in the middle 6 when he’s not producing. This team needs 30+ goal production from him at a minimum, starting in October. If that doesn’t happen, the attitude toward him is going to get less forgiving in a hurry.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

That seems like an L for Winnipeg

McG has said he’s not signing in WPG and he’s not protected quite as high as fox was imo. So return for him should be less than 2 seconds

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

McG has said he’s not signing in WPG and he’s not protected quite as high as fox was imo. So return for him should be less than 2 seconds

Fox, as good as he was, was a 3rd round draft pick who said he was signing with 1 team, and 1 team only.. McG is a 14th overall pick who, AFAIK, hasn't said that.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Nino’s first year as a Cane, granted only half a season, he scored at a 32 goal pace. In 2021 he played ~two thirds of a season at a 29 goal pace. Svech’s career high is 30. The usual disclaimers about pace apply, but when healthy and on top of his game, he brought the same scoring and arguably more physicality than Svech does. Neither of them are doing anything to move the needle in other categories.

Point being, it’s not like Nino was some hot-shit player. He helped us a lot but he was not a part of the core. We are still treating Svech as not just core, but cornerstone. That’s based mainly on a subjective feeling that it looks like he should break out any time now, that he has a good attitude and top-tier skill so that should add up to more than Nino Niederreiter impact. But he isn’t getting better, whether it’s due to injury or something else, and we’re about to exit the developmental phase where big strides are common.

To be clear, I like Svech a lot. But we did not draft him #2 and pay him near $8M to give us 29 goals and a nice personality. In the context of a team with one centerman and very little forward depth, he’s going to have to start carrying his shifts a lot more consistently than he has to this point.

I don't disagree with the overall sentiment of wanting/needing more out of him, but comparing his offensive contribution to Nino is like comparing Zach Hyman’s season to Nathan Mackinnon.

 

[cptjeff]

BTW, this is useful to know:

 

[Wolfpuck]

BTW, this is useful to know:

Jarvis offer sheet incoming?

 

[Lempo]

Is there a complicating factor in that his significant other has career aspirations too (and needs to be in another market, ie Trouba situation in reverse <he needs to stay>)?

Well. He probably isn't open for signing long-term in Winnipeg.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

BTW, this is useful to know:

Well there goes my dream of making Jet Greaves an offer (sheet) he can't refuse.

 

[spockBokk]

FWIW, Jarvis is listed on the roster section of the Canes website, Necas and Drury are not.

 

[NotOpie]

We would choose 1 year.

I'd go 2 years if the award was less than $6 million. Adds price awareness for any deal going forward. We then control him for 2 years and so would any team we traded with. I just think it's a more valuable position to be in.

 

[AD Skinner]

There’s no way they’re letting Jarvis go. If Brind’Amour and Williams were to have a baby Jarvis would be him

 

[mikeyfan]

I didn’t think Jarvis was eligible for an offersheet since he isn’t arbitration eligible

 

[Lempo]

I didn’t think Jarvis was eligible for an offersheet since he isn’t arbitration eligible

He is eligible. He served his ELC in full and is a full-pledged RFA now. There's an extra year to arbitration eligibility, doubtlessly in order to prevent that guys out of their ELC would right away be arbitration eligible.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think if we get Ehlers the whole view of the offseason changes. And hopefully the Borg would immediately learn the “lesson” and extend him for good money (something starting with a 7) immediately upon trading. Whether it include Necas or not, whether it includes KK or not, whether it includes McGroarty, or our 1st round pick, whatever. Lots of permutations and combinations. But it’d be an elegant solution to the Necas problem and an elegant solution to the top 6 problem.

I’d do a little jig if it gets done, for sure.

 

[Stickpucker]

I think if we get Ehlers the whole view of the offseason changes. And hopefully the Borg would immediately learn the “lesson” and extend him for good money (something starting with a 7) immediately upon trading. Whether it include Necas or not, whether it includes KK or not, whether it includes McGroarty, or our 1st round pick, whatever. Lots of permutations and combinations. But it’d be an elegant solution to the Necas problem and an elegant solution to the top 6 problem.

I’d do a little jig if it gets done, for sure.

I don't know Ehlers too well but 7m seems rich.

Is he really any more effective than Turbo?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Ehlers is likely to get a deal similar to Buchnevich’s most recent extension

 

[spockBokk]

I don't know Ehlers too well but 7m seems rich.

Is he really any more effective than Turbo?

He’s coming off a bargain contract and is consistent 60pt guy. His next deal most certainly starts at 7, likely more.

 

[robbieberns]

Ehlers is three years older than Necas, is more of a perimeter player and less of a playoff performer than Necas, serious injury concerns, a year from UFA.

Don’t see any way they’re dealt for each other unless it’s a huge add from WPG. We would be downgrading our top 6 while also being left with another hole to fill.

 

[Derailed75]

Since Necas has filed for arbitration why would they not just keep him for now and if things still aren't working out long term trade around the TDL? Either for whatever help they may need or if the wheels fall off futures?

Seems pretty hasty to trade him now when his value is likely to be much more late in the season

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

Since Necas has filed for arbitration why would they not just keep him for now and if things still aren't working out long term trade around the TDL? Either for whatever help they may need or if the wheels fall off futures?

Seems pretty hasty to trade him now when his value is likely to be much more late in the season

Do we want to keep a guy around who doesn't want to be here? Is the question.

Might go well, but might also go very poorly.

Without an extension in place, I wouldn't go too crazy acquiring Ehlers. We don't have the luxury of continually letting UFA's walk out the door for free. Most non-destination franchises (like ours) would be crippled if all the talent we just lost walked out the door. It's a testament to our F.O. that we will still ice a competitive team this year and it's why they've earned my trust.

 

[Unsustainable]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809292992844558766

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Assuming the resolution is a 1 year deal, Necas has to produce next year to get paid. Not remotely concerned about him not bringing it.

 

[robbieberns]

Ehlers would be intriguing if he can be acquired without Necas going the other way, he’s one of few out there with the speed to run and gun with him.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

Not opposed to bringing on Ehlers but he is a playoff loser