I have admitted in numerous posts that adding a draft position to any sort of model will increase predictive value. Of course, given two equal players, the one drafted higher is likely to be the better player, but that also brings up the fact that Kleven will be given more opportunity to succeed simply because he is a high pick. That can skew the results to look better for higher picks.
In the end, no two players are the same. Every stat will have some sort of misleading numbers or incomplete results or context. If we had perfect information, we would not need stats. With that being said, defenders that score like Tyler Kleven are unlikely to make the NHL or be good players in the NHL. That does not mean he cannot be a good player. It does not mean he needs to score points at the NHL level for me to consider him good. It means we likely should not have traded two picks for this player.
In the end, I think that people who have done this job for a while draft more with their guts than based on probabilities made out of an analysis on paper that says this guy scored that much at that age in that league. I mean, they see the guy play, they watch him practice, they watch him train, check his combine results, interview him, check his bloodlines, his character, his numbers, etc discuss about him several times around the table and then they fit him in their internal ranking. Yes numbers are a factor but I don't think it's even close to being the whole thing. In the case of a D-man that is good defensively, numbers are really not as important
Of course if they are looking after a scoring winger, numbers have to be there, but sometimes it can also be contextual and a matter of opportunity. Look at Connor Brown last year. People think he's a 30 pts guy? Give him more ice-time in a more offensive role and boom, 50 pts pace
Sens seem like a very good scouting/drafting team because they don't seem to care much about what the player has done before but more what they project him to do in the future. It worked pretty well on picks like Batherson, Formenton, Pinto, etc. Pinto didn't even start taking hockey seriously until he was like 15 y/o, many teams (and fans) might have seen him as a reach where they took him. Sens identified him as guy that will continue to rise big time. Looks like they were not that crazy. This guy screams NHL player.
Kleven was most likely seen in the same kind of light and worth it to them as they think he's going to continue to rise on a steeper development curve than other picks they could have made at that spot. And I think they see some untapped offensive potential like coaches and some other people seem to think
I'm totally on board with their draft mentally. guys on a big rise that not everybody saw coming. That's exactly how you find gems, outside of drafting really high. Which is great about this draft is we had 2 top-5 picks (so 2 very high chances at gems) and then they went on with several other guys that could be big risers, like Jarventie, Sokolov, Kleven and even Daoust. Greig seem like the only "safe bet" but there might be unclear potential here