Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[GCK]

Boucher shows some flashes where he looks good but there is so much development needed. He needs a quicker release, better decision making and needs to work on puck control. I see the parts but the package is no where close right now.

 

[Senator Stanley]

There was more than just those clips where he stood out and he did some good things but it wasn't a great game for him imo.

Consistency from one shift to another was my biggest issue with him tonight. He had shifts where he was flying and making things happen but it wasn't often enough. I would like to see him attack with more speed when he has the puck. He can be an explosive skater but tonight I can only recall one instance where he used that explosiveness in transition. Nothing came out of that rush but it was a moment where you move to the edge of your seat. He was more cerebral in transition and slowed down the play a bit too much for me.

I know injuries have been a problem during his time with the 67's and I'm unaware if he is nursing any issues but he seemed off tonight in comparison to other viewing I've had. He wasn't bad, I just know he can be better.

He doesn't seem comfortable skating with the puck and making plays at full speed. I'm not sure if it's confidence or processing, but it's concerning.

 

[Loach]

I get the distinct impression that Stu is going to be running guys himself as early as next season. He is showing his competitiveness already and going at guys but once he gets more weight and strength he will be making space for himself.

With as good a skater as he is, if he wants to hit you he will be able to.

That said of course he can't be running around all the time and we don't want him fighting (only Gallagher this weekend) but Kastelic and Greig alone add 2 more physical/feisty forwards in and I am a believer in Crookshank if he heals up properly who also agitates and doesn't seem like he will back down.

Heck the entire team persona is now about being physical. Norris and Batherson hit consistently with Batherson really laying it on a few times per game and when Formenton wants to he can get physical. I am not concerned about team toughness in the least.

If Stu runs someone it will be Bure on Churla like. You can bet on it.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

EPrinkside did a breakdown on Boucher's play and offered an interesting analysis on his lack of production and the ways he could improve it. You can find that article here:
Film Room: Why isn't Tyler Boucher scoring? - EP Rinkside
For everyone's convenience I will quote the major sections here and include the videos they posted.
Transition and Playmaking

Right now with the Ottawa 67's, it’s in transition where Boucher’s impact is greatest. In a seven-game sample, he’s opted for a dump-in just twice at 5-on-5. That’s a staggering 93 percent controlled entry rate and 33 percent above Ottawa’s team average. It’s also a better rate than almost 99 percent of the 586 CHL and USHL forwards in the data set, including 2021 NHL Draft first-round picks Brennan Othmann, Fabian Lysell and Oskar Olausson.

Boucher has found a fit in an Ottawa structure that emphasizes lateral movement and inside lane use in transition. He consistently takes pucks off the defensive zone boards, even when pressured, hits a teammate in the middle, or changes the point of attack with a cross-ice pass in the neutral zone.

More and more, Boucher is applying those passing skills to the offensive third, too. Instead of trying to outrace the entire opposing team to the net, he’s started to delay and wait for the trailer. He’s had no difficulty identifying teammates in scoring position, where he’s choosing to pass instead of shoot more often.

This more playmaking-focused mindset has shown off Boucher’s passing skill. It was always there, just hidden. He connects with backhand saucer passes when pressured. With an outstretched hook pass or a subtle slip pass under a stick, he flips the script on well-gapped defenders. And he has more advanced ideas, like going between his legs or turning a good chance into a great one by making the extra pass.

Play Selection

Boucher still has plenty of work to do as a playmaker. Instead of finding an easier-to-hit option, he usually forces the pass to the teammate closest to the net. Some of that seems to result from failing to identify short-range passing options when charging up the ice.

The other part is the consequence of not dictating the defender’s feet, with Boucher failing to provide false information to the defender to open or prolong passing lanes. But that doesn’t stop him from trying anyway, leading to his concerning 43 percent slot pass completion rate.

Too often, Boucher settles for low-percentage shots instead of cutting inside for a better opportunity. Some players need the extra time and space to load up their shot. Boucher doesn’t. He should be trying everything to shrink his distance to the goal before firing.

Part of the appeal of Boucher’s game is the handling skill. Despite trying over seven dekes per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (more than 91 percent of CHL forwards), he completes just 33 percent. That’s bad. Remember how he virtually never dumps the puck in? Well, only 68 percent of his controlled entry attempts result in offensive zone possession, a rate that scores in the bottom-third of the data set. The over-deking is the culprit.

The over-deking also directly impacts the most important part of Boucher’s on-puck projection: board play. Boucher’s NHL role will likely be winning battles and getting the puck off the boards and to the inside lane. It doesn’t always have to be pretty. But he doesn’t understand that yet.

Just as Boucher does in transition, he often tries to beat players with his hands alone. It doesn’t work. At 5-on-5, he successfully takes a puck from the offensive zone boards to the inside 1.8 times per 60 or less than once per game. That lands in the bottom-third of the 586 forwards in the data set. That's concerning for a player with a projection largely based on physical play and puck protection.

Boucher should be relying on body positioning. Instead of turning his back to the boards to prepare the deke, he should turn his back to the incoming defender. As soon as they lean on him, he should cut back in the opposite direction, creating a lane to the inside.


It’s a simple formula, but it’s the most efficient one. As long as he keeps the defender behind him, he's in control of where the play goes. His current method relies on reacting to the defender.

The good news is that he emphasized body positioning more last year. He still uses it on occasion, but he’s playing a needlessly complex game in the OHL.

Interaction and Solutions

Since Boucher is over-reliant on beating defenders with his hands, settling for lower-percentage shots, and forcing passes, he’s killing offensive zone time before it starts. It means he’s getting fewer opportunities to use his best scoring skill: getting open in the slot in sustained offensive zone pressure.

With the USNTDP, Boucher combined finesse and power to win positioning on defenders at the perfect moment. What he couldn’t beat down with a series of shoves, he out-thought. He’d spin away from pressure, then dash back into the slot just as the puck came near.

These were projectable sequences that would result in goals at the next level that have basically evaporated in the OHL. He only gets 3.6 scoring chances per 60 in that situation, a roughly average mark for a CHL forward.

So, how can Boucher get these opportunities again? It starts by continuing the passing transformation discussed earlier. Instead of putting pucks through defenders’ feet, he could head fake and go around or cut across the front of defenders. In both cases, the turnovers decrease, providing more play-building opportunities. More play-building means more offensive zone time, allowing Boucher to use his scoring instincts and shot more frequently.

While Boucher’s stride has projectable qualities, including natural quickness, his average stance is too high. It prevents him from powering through players with the puck on his stick. It also prevents him from really selling the fake and exploding laterally to escape or separating with a cutback along the boards. More ankle dorsiflexion and hip engagement equal more ability to absorb contact, which would give him more opportunities to gain the inside lane.

---

There are also team factors at play. Ottawa finished dead-last in the OHL in goals with just 199 (the next closest had 215). According to InStat hockey, they had the fourth-lowest expected goals per game, too. For a player like Boucher, one reliant on his teammates finding him, that’s a problem.

Of course, it’s fair to expect a first-rounder to score anyway. And much of Boucher’s scoring woes are his own doing. Play selection issues directly inhibit his ability to gain the zone and play to his strengths. His board play, which should be his best on-puck skill, isn't a strength in the OHL right now.

Both are likely to improve with time, as the solutions are already present in his game. As they do, his playmaking will improve, and his scoring chances will go up. Scoring in the OHL is inevitable for Boucher — it'll just have to wait until next season.

Boucher might not live up to the lofty expectations that come with being the 10th-overall pick, but he still has top-nine tools, and unique ones, at that. To achieve it, his development must take another monumental leap or two. But don’t close the book on him yet.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

At 4:44 of this video from 2020, Boucher claims that he almost quit hockey to play golf until he was in 8th grade and that he only really started taking hockey really serious around that age.


I think Pinto was older than that when he started taking hockey really seriously but there might be some similarities to the Pinto situation. I don't know what age other prospects start taking hockey really seriously but if Boucher got serious about it later than the average then that would result in him being less developed than some of those other prospects. If that is the case, then combining that with his lack of games played due to injury in his draft year that he could just be a really raw and underdeveloped prospect.

It is certainly worth considering how that might impact his on ice play and what reasonable inferences can be made with regards to projecting his potential NHL upside.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

At 4:44 of this video from 2020, Boucher claims that he almost quit hockey to play golf until he was in 8th grade and that he only really started taking hockey really serious around that age.


I think Pinto was older than that when he started taking hockey really seriously but there might be some similarities to the Pinto situation. I don't know what age other prospects start taking hockey really seriously but if Boucher got serious about it later than the average then that would result in him being less developed than some of those other prospects. If that is the case, then combining that with his lack of games played due to injury in his draft year that he could just be a really raw and underdeveloped prospect.

It is certainly worth considering how that might impact his on ice play and what reasonable inferences can be made with regards to projecting his potential NHL upside.

If that is the case his learning curve should be steeper though. He certainly doesn't look to be on a steep learning curve at the moment.

We saw that with Pinto. He took off the year after being drafted and that momentum continued the following year.

If a player is late to the game, or grows late or something, his rate of improvement should be higher than those who have already gone through much of the learning process.

Boucher's performance before his selection was concerning for a 10th OA pick but his apparent stagnation in development HAS to be more of a concern for Sens brass.

Learning is never linear though, so let's hope he tears it up next year.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

If that is the case his learning curve should be steeper though. He certainly doesn't look to be on a steep learning curve at the moment.

We saw that with Pinto. He took off the year after being drafted and that momentum continued the following year.

If a player is late to the game, or grows late or something, his rate of improvement should be higher than those who have already gone through much of the learning process.

Boucher's performance before his selection was concerning for a 10th OA pick but his apparent stagnation in development HAS to be more of a concern for Sens brass.

Learning is never linear though, so let's hope he tears it up next year.

Pinto didn't have any major setbacks in development time until this season. He started taking hockey really seriously later than Boucher, but once he did he played complete or near complete seasons.

Boucher still might have started to take hockey seriously later than the average (around grade 8 by his own admission) but earlier than Pinto. Like you said, that would have lead to positive momentum in his development. His U17 season was actually pretty strong with comparable production to both Tkachuk and Norris in the USDP, USHL and WHC-17. Then in his draft year, his injuries and the covid situation lead to him having a pretty big set ack in development time. From what is listed, he only played 19 games in total. For comparison, in Pinto's draft season he played 56 regular season games and 6 playoff games.

What I am saying is that we already knew he missed a lot of games in his draft season so he would be a bit behind in development time. But what some people might not know is that he was considering quitting hockey to pursue golf and only started taking hockey really seriously around grade 8. So that is another variable that might lead to him being less fully developed than his peers. The implication of that is his performance could be more varied and it can be harder to make accurate reads about what he will eventually become.

We should have a much clearer picture next season though.

 

[TheDebater]

As I have said multiple times before, I am willing to be patient with Boucher and give him the benefit of the doubt that he has some unlocked skill and potential that is suddenly going to appear one day.

But as of right now, it should not be this complicated and intricate when evaluating a player in his situation. He is playing in the CHL where almost all 1st round picks who play there tend to look really really good before and after their draft. Boucher has not looked really good and is not displaying any highlights of being a legitimate 1st round pick.

Even 1st round picks that end up becoming busts in past years have looked really good in their post draft years but Boucher as of right now is not looking like a player worthy of being drafted in the 1st round let alone top 10.

It is ok to admit this, things might turn around because who knows where his ceiling is, but just judging by what we have seen, there is no way the Senators would not want a re-do on this pick.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Also. Part of the problem with Boucher on the 67s is that Dave Cameron is not a good coach.

Jack Beck drafted in the 6th round of Boucher's draft and plays on the same team and also missed all of last season has 44 points in 36 games.

 

[Tragedy]

Jack Beck drafted in the 6th round of Boucher's draft and plays on the same team and also missed all of last season has 44 points in 36 games.

Woah woah woah. Get your facts outta here

 

[Bileur]

I don’t get the point of harping on others being better selections. It seems literally everyone agrees. It sucks but it’s done now, the Sens can’t go back and change it.

This isn’t a situation like complaining about Zaitsev’s performance or Tierney being on the PP. Those things could still change in theory. What’s the point of repeating it?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Pinto didn't have any major setbacks in development time until this season. He started taking hockey really seriously later than Boucher, but once he did he played complete or near complete seasons.

Boucher still might have started to take hockey seriously later than the average (around grade 8 by his own admission) but earlier than Pinto. Like you said, that would have lead to positive momentum in his development. His U17 season was actually pretty strong with comparable production to both Tkachuk and Norris in the USDP, USHL and WHC-17. Then in his draft year, his injuries and the covid situation lead to him having a pretty big set ack in development time. From what is listed, he only played 19 games in total. For comparison, in Pinto's draft season he played 56 regular season games and 6 playoff games.

What I am saying is that we already knew he missed a lot of games in his draft season so he would be a bit behind in development time. But what some people might not know is that he was considering quitting hockey to pursue golf and only started taking hockey really seriously around grade 8. So that is another variable that might lead to him being less fully developed than his peers. The implication of that is his performance could be more varied and it can be harder to make accurate reads about what he will eventually become.

We should have a much clearer picture next season though.

As always I appreciate your input but I feel you're reaching at this point. He's been bad to terrible relative to his draft position. No amount of rationalization can change that.

Luckily he's still very young and has plenty of time to turn things around.

 

[Micklebot]

Jack Beck drafted in the 6th round of Boucher's draft and plays on the same team and also missed all of last season has 44 points in 36 games.

I think maybe the 50 pounds Boucher has on Beck might have something to do with their draft position...

As an aside, I get people who want to hold off passing judgement on Boucher, but, he's among the oldest in his cohort, he's missed lots of time in what's typically viewed as key development years, and he's already NHL size, so its not like he's going to go through a growth spurt and suddenly some of the red flags are gone.

I'm willing to be patient, I'll cheer for him to prove the doubters wrong, I just don't get the optimism some already have for him. Sure, he can hit, but remove that from his game and nobody would know his name.

 

[BondraTime]

I think maybe the 50 pounds Boucher has on Beck might have something to do with their draft position...

As an aside, I get people who want to hold off passing judgement on Boucher, but, he's among the oldest in his cohort, he's missed lots of time in what's typically viewed as key development years, and he's already NHL size, so its not like he's going to go through a growth spurt and suddenly some of the red flags are gone.

I'm willing to be patient, I'll cheer for him to prove the doubters wrong, I just don't get the optimism some already have for him. Sure, he can hit, but remove that from his game and nobody would know his name.

Jack Beck was brought up because Boucher playing on Ottawa and under Cameron along with limited time last year is being used as reasons for the lack of production, Beck is under the exact same circumstances.

Boucher is the better prospect quite easily, but him playing on Ottawa under Cameron, and playing little last season, isn’t an excuse for his lack of production.

 

[Micklebot]

Jack Beck was brought up because him playing on Ottawa and under Cameron is being used as a reason for the lack of production.

Don't disagree, Boucher's production is on him, not the coach or the system, but I just don't care for comparing production of a 150 pound kid and a 205 kid in a development league without including that context. Boucher wasn't drafted for his offense, even still, he's managed to disappoint in terms of his production. I suspect Beck was drafted for his offense, If he were 6' 180 pds, we'd still expect him to be outscoring Boucher.

 

[BondraTime]

Don't disagree, Boucher's production is on him, not the coach or the system, but I just don't care for comparing production of a 150 pound kid and a 205 kid in a development league without including that context. Boucher wasn't drafted for his offense, even still, he's managed to disappoint in terms of his production. I suspect Beck was drafted for his offense, If he were 6' 180 pds, we'd still expect him to be outscoring Boucher.

Don’t think there has been any comparison of the players, other than showing that another guy the same age drafted in the same draft is able to produce on the 67’s. Beck is 165+ isn’t he? Was 5’11 162 on Central Scouting’s final rankings prior to the draft. OHL hasn’t updated his 16 year old measurements.

 

[SlapJack]

If you can find it in yourself to ignore his draft position and pretend he was a 2nd rounder or whatever, things might seem more positive. He'll play in the NHL and be decent once he sorts a few things out.

If he can become a physical 3rd liner that can pot 20, it's a good thing. And the tools are there.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

If you can find it in yourself to ignore his draft position and pretend he was a 2nd rounder or whatever, things might seem more positive. He'll play in the NHL and be decent once he sorts a few things out.

If he can become a physical 3rd liner that can pot 20, it's a good thing. And the tools are there.

Physical players that can pot 20 are top 6 guys nowadays

 

[Answer]

I see a poor version of Mike Fisher at best.

Maybe a more physical Zack Smith type of a player

 

[BondraTime]

If you can find it in yourself to ignore his draft position and pretend he was a 2nd rounder or whatever, things might seem more positive. He'll play in the NHL and be decent once he sorts a few things out.

If he can become a physical 3rd liner that can pot 20, it's a good thing. And the tools are there.

He’ll absolutely be an NHLer. We will hit on the pick with regards to getting a player.

We look to have missed with regards to getting a guy teams “usually” look for at the top of the draft. Of course there’s time to turn that around.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

As always I appreciate your input but I feel you're reaching at this point. He's been bad to terrible relative to his draft position. No amount of rationalization can change that.

Luckily he's still very young and has plenty of time to turn things around.

Yeah possibly. I am looking to make sense of it. When I watch Boucher play I see a player that should be putting up more points. He has solid tools and he creates scoring chances but the production isn't there. I think the EPrinskide article I posted did a solid breakdown on some of the things that Boucher is doing wrong and how making some adjustments could help increase his production.

One of the big things they mentioned was that Boucher should look for some safer plays and look to shield the puck more and work the boards. I had been thinking about this recently. He plays a bit like Crosby in terms of that stocky build with quick pivots and curlbacks. I mentioned before that I think he would benefit from watching and looking to emulate Crosby's puck protection game. Crosby really excels at that and Boucher's build, tools and style make it conducive to learn from Crosby in that aspect. If Boucher can learn to play more of a puck protection game, he could hold onto it longer in the offensive zone and allow for better play options to form.

Boucher relies too heavily on trying to create offense off the rush and while he can create some solid chances, he would likely create better and more frequent chances by trying to get more of a cycle game going. If he can shield the puck better then he can use his skating pivots and edgework as well as his vision to set up more dangerous passes. If he can play with some other players that play that puck possession cycle game then he can get himself in better positions to get quality shots off.

 

[DueDiligence]

Far too many words being taken up analyzing this player. The Sens future hopes don't rest on what he becomes.

 

[Big Muddy]

Far too many words being taken up analyzing this player. The Sens future hopes don't rest on what he becomes.

That is true, but it's only natural to want your 1st round picks to work out, especially a #10 overall.

I just wait versus chiming in & I don't see enough of him to even have an opinion.

 

[TheDebater]

We waited six years for Logan Brown to become what we thought he could, and he never did, the least we can do is give Boucher two to three years to prove himself.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Jack Beck drafted in the 6th round of Boucher's draft and plays on the same team and also missed all of last season has 44 points in 36 games.

Blaming Cameron is ridiculous. Cameron is giving Boucher every opportunity to succeed.