Two years later: Revisiting the Kotkaniemi - Dvorak swap

[calder candidate]

He'll be 23 in 5 days and has been in the league now for 5 seasons. The clock is really starting to tick on whatever untapped potential he may have.

The move obviously didn't work out great for us but it was just baffling from Carolina's side. Imagine being in the middle of your contention window and you spend $6.1M in cap space at a period where the cap is stagnant on a project that ends up playing on your 4th line and contributes 2 assists in your 14 game playoff run. Then you extend him 8 years.

It hasn’t worked great for them but the cap wasn’t really a constrain for them and most likely that 8 year deal had already been agree too when they made the offer sheet they couldn’t really back out since KK team could have gone to the league and spill the bean and they would have been penalized for trempering or cap circonvenions… Has cheap and cut throat as CAR has been in the past it was a baffling move to resign KK to a 8 year deal but even if it hasn’t worked it might still be a steal if he improve he had a horrible start and still he ended up .5ppg last season and playoffs, 23yo with size and more than ok defensively… even if he just keep is current pace he will be slightly over paid that wasn’t a very big gamble vs. us signing a Gallagher type player…

 

[BaseballCoach]

It's kind of hilarious to read a thread full of people simultaneously saying that the Canadiens should have matched that absurd contract for Kotkaniemi while simultaneously saying that Bergevin was a terrible General Manager.

Had he matched that contract it would have been the single stupidest thing he'd ever done.

Are the Bergevin haters so blinded by their dislike for that man that they have to pretend everything he did was wrong?

Nobody in their right mind thinks giving Kotka that contract was the right move, yet over 70 percent of the people here think that was the route to go?

Really?

It's bad enough that people are pretending that Dvorak is some terrible player that couldn't be given away - which is absurd - but now we have to also pretend that not handing Kotka the keys to the vault was a mistake?

This place in insane.

Matching would have been the second stupidest thing.

The stupidest was letting it get that far instead of signing KK to a more reasonable contract earlier, like all good GMs do with guys coming off ELC, and who have shown they can contribute, even if not yet consistently, at ages 18-20!

Look at the 4 x $3.375M contract Hughes gave Dach, another 3-OA who was inconstent but showed flashes of talent. KK would surely have signed for far less than $6.1M and even far less than $4.8M.

I'm guessing 2 years at $2.5M or 5 years at $3.25M

Bozo should also have read the pulse of the room and not backed Ducharme so much.

 

[KevSkillz4]

Goodbye KK. Habs are in much better hands with Kirby Dach than Kotkaniemi.

 

[Habssince89]

-KK was a good kid and I think its obvious he was rushed. That being said, in this scenario if he's developed the same as real life, I'm never signing him to that initial contract OR the extension.
-I would like to defend Dvorak a little, as he is a decent middle six forward who is a good garbage man in front of the net(something the habs need, they lack high-end finishers except CC so anyone who can finish plays at all are very needed) can play PK and take faceoffs. He is overpaid though, and I think he wouldn't be so blah if he was paired with a good line driving winger. He's the kind of boring but solid C that helps a talented W shine on a 2nd/3rd line.
-In the end, I'd just take the picks for KK and be done with it.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Bergevin knew he was toast after the playoffs when Weber and Price's career was over.

He knew he couldn't start a third rebuild, it probably wasn't part of his genius plan with Molson.

So he did the same mistake all stupid GMs do in this situation, he panicked and refurbished his team with players from Wish as a one last Hail Mary to keep his job.

Bergevin did the right thing by not matching the offer, but how he responded to it was absolutely brutal.

Worst part is Molson actually tried to extend his contract but they disagreed on the salary IIRC. We could still be stuck with him.

As weird as MB was at times, I find it hard to believe MB wasn't the one pushing for a competitive team at all times.

There is a major difference in the city when we are in a playoff race vs at the bottom. The bell center is not as long, merchandise sales drop, etc...

IF MB and ONLY MB was the problem then why would Molson finally admit to needing someone between him and a GM?

Clearly there was a bit of a mess in the front office and its since been corrected. We hired Gorton who famously wrote to NYR fans that they will rebuild. After hiring him, we hired a GM and we have not tried to force a competitive team. I don't think its a coincidence.

This is the first time in a long time that

 

[Montreal Shadow]

Don’t care. Both are meh players who don’t add much.

 

[Hostile Offer]

Back then I believed Bergevin made the right decision, in hindsight I would choose neither option. Letting KK go was right but Dvorak has been disappointing.

 

[BarracudaMtl]

What we really need to ask ourselves now is, do we get AHO via UFA or not?

 

[Lshap]

Matching would have been the second stupidest thing.

The stupidest was letting it get that far instead of signing KK to a more reasonable contract earlier, like all good GMs do with guys coming off ELC, and who have shown they can contribute, even if not yet consistently, at ages 18-20!

Look at the 4 x $3.375M contract Hughes gave Dach, another 3-OA who was inconstent but showed flashes of talent. KK would surely have signed for far less than $6.1M and even far less than $4.8M.

I'm guessing 2 years at $2.5M or 5 years at $3.25M

Bozo should also have read the pulse of the room and not backed Ducharme so much.

In principle, I completely agree Bergevin should've signed Kotkaniemi beforehand. But I think it's very possible Kotkaniemi's camp was demanding more than he was worth, which could be why he was left unsigned and exposed. $3.2Mx5 would've been fine; we'll never know if it was Bergevin or KK who prevented it from happening.

Obviously, I don't think he's worth his current contract. $4.8M isn't terrible, but it carries unnecessary fat, which will squeeze us as we start assembling a (hopeful) winning team. Kotkaniemi will be starting his 6th full season in the NHL. The statute on 'Untapped Potential' is running out quickly.

 

[BaseballCoach]

In principle, I completely agree Bergevin should've signed Kotkaniemi beforehand. But I think it's very possible Kotkaniemi's camp was demanding more than he was worth, which could be why he was left unsigned and exposed. $3.2Mx5 would've been fine; we'll never know if it was Bergevin or KK who prevented it from happening.

Obviously, I don't think he's worth his current contract. $4.8M isn't terrible, but it carries unnecessary fat, which will squeeze us as we start assembling a (hopeful) winning team. Kotkaniemi will be starting his 6th full season in the NHL. The statute on 'Untapped Potential' is running out quickly.

No way that the organization that sat him in the playoffs on three occasions despite him scoring 5 goals and not hurting the club defensively offered him 5 x $3.2M. However, I think he would have LOVED to extend if only the general atmosphere were like it is now, where young players are ENCOURAGED and not crapped upon.

This is the clever bunch that sat Romanov in favour of Merrill and Gustaffson 18 times in 22 playoff games.

 

[Lshap]

No way that the organization that sat him in the playoffs on three occasions despite him scoring 5 goals and not hurting the club defensively offered him 5 x $3.2M. However, I think he would have LOVED to extend if only the general atmosphere were like it is now, where young players are ENCOURAGED and not crapped upon.

This is the clever bunch that sat Romanov in favour of Merrill and Gustaffson 18 times in 22 playoff games.

Sure, it's possible Bergevin undervalued KK. But in the end, he was overvalued by Carolina.

Kotkaniemi looks like he'll have a decent career as a depth forward. I'm glad Bergevin didn't match the OS, but I'm underwhelmed by Dvorak as the return.

 

[Andy]

In principle, I completely agree Bergevin should've signed Kotkaniemi beforehand. But I think it's very possible Kotkaniemi's camp was demanding more than he was worth,

I think the biggest tell here is that MB and co didn't want to pay in advance for what KK thought he was worth because they didn't think he'd get there. In retrospect, that will be the biggest question of this whole thing: it's not about whether they should have matched, but whether MB & co were right in their assessment of KK that he would not be worth that much.

Sometimes you need to gamble with youth if you believe in them. The Canes believe in KK, the habs didn't seem like they did.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think the biggest tell her is that MB and co didn't what to pay in advance for what KK thought he was worth because they didn't think he'd get there. In retrospect, that will be the biggest question of this whole thing: it's not about whether they should have matched, but whether MB & co were right in their assessment of KK that he would not be worth that much.

Sometimes you need to gamble with youth if you believe in them. The Canes believe in KK, the habs didn't seem like they did.

KK is in good hand with Brind'Amour. He has high expectations but a great communicator and I recall KK starting the season last year where Brind'Amour said, he needs to figure it out and shortly after, he is on the 4th line. He gave KK a shot with Svechnikov and it was not just a few games. KK improved as the season moved along and had a decent playoffs.

I guess he is that long term prospect at center after all. Problem is Montreal drafted him and then decided to rush him into the NHL at age 18. Montreal is the last place to rush a prospect IMO. The history is adding up.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Sure, it's possible Bergevin undervalued KK. But in the end, he was overvalued by Carolina.

Kotkaniemi looks like he'll have a decent career as a depth forward. I'm glad Bergevin didn't match the OS, but I'm underwhelmed by Dvorak as the return.

Again, should not have gotten that far. Alternate universe - KK plays the final two playoff games, gets offered a nice two- or three-year bridge deal, is praised for his contribution at only age 20. and he signs. 95% sure of that.

I think the biggest tell here is that MB and co didn't want to pay in advance for what KK thought he was worth because they didn't think he'd get there. In retrospect, that will be the biggest question of this whole thing: it's not about whether they should have matched, but whether MB & co were right in their assessment of KK that he would not be worth that much.

Sometimes you need to gamble with youth if you believe in them. The Canes believe in KK, the habs didn't seem like they did.

Sheer incompetence. You don't let Danault walk because he thinks he is #3, while you don't believe KK is #2.

 

[donghabs98]

I think the biggest issue with the swap isnt losing KK persay (especially if he wanted put). Rather, it was then trading picks for Dvorak. Keeping the 1st or flipping them for someone younger would have been better.

 

[cphabs]

Again, should not have gotten that far. Alternate universe - KK plays the final two playoff games, gets offered a nice two- or three-year bridge deal, is praised for his contribution at only age 20. and he signs. 95% sure of that.


Sheer incompetence. You don't let Danault walk because he thinks he is #3, while you don't believe KK is #2.

I remember letting Souray walk…

 

[Miller Time]

Sure, it's possible Bergevin undervalued KK. But in the end, he was overvalued by Carolina.

Kotkaniemi looks like he'll have a decent career as a depth forward. I'm glad Bergevin didn't match the OS, but I'm underwhelmed by Dvorak as the return.

You do realize that 28yr old Compher just signed [email protected]... after posting his career best year at 52pts (previous career best of 33 was less than JKO at 18).

Carolina is already, in year 1, getting good value from JKO in his 22yr old season, where he put up 43pts.

No, it's not all about points... But you seem to be ignoring the market reality in assessing JKO's relative value right now, let alone the very likely odds that he improves considerably over the next 5+ years (while the cap increases).

Carolina got a steal at the cost of 1 bloated offer sheet season. Great move on their part.

We turned a quality asset into a mediocre middle 6 vet whose value deteriorated from the moment we paid an unnecessary premium for him. Terrible move on our part.

C'est la vie

 

[Whitesnake]

It started and ended with going for needs with a high pick. And then, to be SURE that we f***ed it all up, it concluded by playing JK in the NHL at 18 to try to justify that need pick. There was clearly no turning back from those stupid decisions.

JK should still be a Habs and would still be IF we would have dealt with him as pros are supposed to do so.

 

[Andy]

It started and ended with going for needs with a high pick. And then, to be SURE that we f***ed it all up, it concluded by playing JK in the NHL at 18 to try to justify that need pick. There was clearly no turning back from those stupid decisions.

JK should still be a Habs and would still be IF we would have dealt with him as pros are supposed to do so.

JK might be a hab if the team recognized they needed a proper rebuilt instead of trying to patch holes to with the hope crawling to the playoffs. That was the biggest issue.

 

[Miller Time]

JK might be a hab if the team recognized they needed a proper rebuilt instead of trying to patch holes to with the hope crawling to the playoffs. That was the biggest issue.

Was it though?

It's not like the team that poached him was on or went on a rebuild path...

Nor was Dvorak a net upgrade even in year 1...

Not sure that playoff ambition was the issue, were that the case, keeping Danault and getting JKO on an RFA deal would've been a much more obvious direction.

Bad player evaluation and poor pro scouting was a bigger culprit imo

 

[WinterLion]

KK has become a very good player. People are too obsessed with stats. He is a solid player, I could see him having a better year this year.

 

[The Real Timo]

Dvorak is a terrible player. He's done absolutely nothing for Habs. KK at least got Habs to game 7 of the laffs series. Bergevin is a moron for letting the situation get to where it got. I would take KK back in a heart beat on a reasonable (to his performance) contract. He is easily better than anyone playing on Habs bottom 6.

 

[Le Tricolore]

Option c: I think Bergevin did the right move in not matching, but then panicked and made the trade to get Dvorak.

Looks like KK may end up being worth his long contract, which... good for him. I wish Bergevin either held off and waited to see if a better player would be available, or just kept the pick. In his mind, the team was still going to be competitive and needed Dvorak, especially after also losing Danault to free agency. It was just a bad move.

If I had to pick between the two options, I'd raher have KK than Dvorak. This isn't a knock on Dvorak, I think he's fine, and would look a lot better on a good team with better linemates, but overall, the move has not been great.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Bergevin screwed up big time trading for Dvorak thinking that would help when we just lost our #1 goalie #1 def and #2 center

i take option #3 let KK walk and dont trade for Dvorak

 

[Ozmodiar]

Bergevin screwed up big time trading for Dvorak thinking that would help when we just lost our #1 goalie #1 def and #2 center

i take option #3 let KK walk and dont trade for Dvorak

Compensatory picks > KK or Dvo