Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

[theaub]

Statcast seems to rate Biggio as an average 2B but personally I find his reaction time very substandard, especially on balls to his right.

I think the bat will play anywhere but he's a corner outfielder/third baseman down the road. Matt Carpenter-type would be optimal.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think so. He has a negative 3.0 rating on Fangraphs overall defensively and just at second he has the same.

Those Fangraphs defensive ratings oscillate so much year over year that I find it hard to trust them to make a judgement on a player's defense. Look up Jeter's numbers for example if you want to have a laugh.

 

[Discoverer]

Those Fangraphs defensive ratings oscillate so much year over year that I find it hard to trust them to make a judgement on a player's defense. Look up Jeter's numbers for example if you want to have a laugh.

Are Jeter's numbers that far off the eye test? They suggest he was routinely terrible with a year or two where he was close to average and a single year where he was actually pretty decent.

 

[Kurtz]

Are Jeter's numbers that far off the eye test? They suggest he was routinely terrible with a year or two where he was close to average and a single year where he was actually pretty decent.

The reason Jeter came to mind was that he was winning multiple gold gloves while being considered a sub-par defender by advanced stat guys. Honestly, lots and lots of guys show this type of variance year over year.

But look at this for Jeter (fangraphs defensive rating):

98: +10
00: - 16
01: - 10
02: + 7
05: - 8
07: - 11
09: +12

Just massive fluctuations year over year for the same guy, and I think it's much more likely that this is a data problem than it is the case of Jeter going from a defensive stud one year to a dud the next, and back and forth like that for essentially his entire run.

 

[Discoverer]

The reason Jeter came to mind was that he was winning multiple gold gloves while being considered a sub-par defender by advanced stat guys. Honestly, lots and lots of guys show this type of variance year over year.

But look at this for Jeter (fangraphs defensive rating):

98: +10
00: - 16
01: - 10
02: + 7
05: - 8
07: - 11
09: +12

Just massive fluctuations year over year for the same guy, and I think it's much more likely that this is a data problem than it is the case of Jeter going from a defensive stud one year to a dud the next, and back and forth like that for essentially his entire run.

The pre-2002 stuff is extra complicated because it's not based on particularly "advanced" stats, but more importantly: is the overall fluctuation from year to year that much more random than it is for offensive numbers? Randal Grichuk's offensive value on Fangraphs has gone -2.8, 17.3, 3.8, -0.1, 8.0, -12.9... does that suggest an inherent issue with wRC+?

(I'm not trying to be snarky about this or anything... I genuinely don't know the answer to this stuff. It's possible that defensive stats ARE way more volatile and that we should take them with an extra grain of salt. But I think looking an individual players (or even a handful of examples) as evidence is a bad idea.)

 

[justafan22]

Derek Fisher was awful to watch in person.

I know his stats may say differently but jesus.

 

[Kurtz]

The pre-2002 stuff is extra complicated because it's not based on particularly "advanced" stats, but more importantly: is the overall fluctuation from year to year that much more random than it is for offensive numbers? Randal Grichuk's offensive value on Fangraphs has gone -2.8, 17.3, 3.8, -0.1, 8.0, -12.9... does that suggest an inherent issue with wRC+?

(I'm not trying to be snarky about this or anything... I genuinely don't know the answer to this stuff. It's possible that defensive stats ARE way more volatile and that we should take them with an extra grain of salt. But I think looking an individual players (or even a handful of examples) as evidence is a bad idea.)

Fair points. I don't know if a study on this is available at all. But I'll circle back to my initial point - we can't use Biggio's current -3 def on Fangraphs to conclude that he's a defensive liability today or going forward.

 

[Discoverer]

Fair points. I don't know if a study on this is available at all. But I'll circle back to my initial point - we can't use Biggio's current -3 def on Fangraphs to conclude that he's a defensive liability today or going forward.

Nope. He's looked ok - better than I expected, I suppose - at 2B, and the numbers support that, as he's been pretty much exactly average there. But even if you DO trust the numbers 600 innings is a tiny sample size. The 67 innings he's played in the OF and the 30 at 1B are pretty much meaningless.

 

[dredeye]

Derek Fisher was awful to watch in person.

I know his stats may say differently but jesus.

What different do his stats say?

 

[deletethis]

Worst birthday ever.

 

[phillipmike]

Worst birthday ever.

Someone brought up a good point.

Basically got the remaining of his prorate 3M to go home and not work. Was going to get limited innings, if any as he had no long term or even short term future with the Jays - now he gets to spend 3 more weeks with his family at home, get healthy and re-focus on 2020. As a free agent he can talk to other teams starting now rather than wait for November.

So in the end it worked out well for him.

 

[phillipmike]

Blue Jays' veteran arms proving experience still matters in rebuild - Sportsnet.ca

Buckholz on McKinney's error;

"Billy came up to me and tried to apologize two or three times and I told him, ‘You don’t ever have to apologize to me. I know you’re not out there trying to do something to cause me runs.’ That’s not what the game is about," said Buchholz. "They feel bad but if I make a better pitch in that scenario, the ball doesn’t even get hit there so I can take the blame for all that. Everybody is out there grinding. Everybody wants to win every game. It doesn’t happen that way. You’ve got to go through a learning phase and this is a learning phase for this club right now."

Between this and teaching Thornton his new curve, not a bad teammate!

 

[phillipmike]

MLB.TV | Live Stream Baseball Games

Tonight's Jays game is free on MLB.TV

 

[phillipmike]

The Impossible Task of Naming Every 2019 Blue Jays Pitcher

I got 24 out of 38. I should have got at least 5 more.

 

[Canada4Gold]

20 sadly missed Thornton, Waguespack, Borucki, Pannone, Gaviglio, and Mayza. Spent the last 3 minutes with Borucki on the tip of my tongue but everytime I thought of the letter B my mind immediately went to Buchholz.

Of course I got Boshers, Romano, Font, Stewart, Urena and Maile somehow.

Man it's clear I haven't watched as much baseball this year. Normally I'd be able to name the entire 25 man roster in less than a minute.

 

[TF97]

I got 34/38, which unfortunately included Edwin Jackson... meaning that his tenure as a Blue Jay was unfortunately more memorable than I would have liked it to be

 

[SeaOfBlue]

28/38, and I missed some really obvious ones...

Most noticeably... Ken Giles.

Also forgot Thornton, Waguespack, Hudson, Law, Ramirez, Stewart, Rosscup, Diaz and Kingham.

I also technically remembered Hudson but I couldn't put the name to the guy who returned Johnston in a trade

Not bad for a guy that doesn't watch much baseball.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Since Keith Law declared Biggio "not worth a roster spot" (Aug 28)

11 hits, 11 walks + 1HBP, 3 1B, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR in 36 AB/49PA + 2 SB

.305 BA, .469 OBA, .722 Slg, OPS 1.191

Hopefully he says that same thing about Vlad

 

[dredeye]

No updates on Mayza? It looked like he was crying on the mound yesterday. HE looked visibly shaken

 

[Woodman19]

No updates on Mayza? It looked like he was crying on the mound yesterday. HE looked visibly shaken

Probably a ucl tear. Everyone on the field knew it.

 

[phillipmike]

No updates on Mayza? It looked like he was crying on the mound yesterday. HE looked visibly shaken

They are reporting a UCL tear. Tommy John will be required

 

[The Nemesis]

No updates on Mayza? It looked like he was crying on the mound yesterday. HE looked visibly shaken

TJ. He's out for all of next season.

 

[MS]

Mayza has been getting raked for the past month and having control problems so you wonder if this was something that was building rather than something that just happened on one pitch.

Hopefully he can bounce back in 2021 but TJS on a depth reliever is basically career-ending a large percentage of the time.

 

[dredeye]

Mayza has been getting raked for the past month and having control problems so you wonder if this was something that was building rather than something that just happened on one pitch.

Hopefully he can bounce back in 2021 but TJS on a depth reliever is basically career-ending a large percentage of the time.

The way he reacted felt like he realized his career was likely finished

 

[dredeye]

Probably a ucl tear. Everyone on the field knew it.

The volume on my tv was messed up last night. I figured that’s what happened. I don’t remember seeing that Wild a pitch and the player dropping like that. Everyone looked f***ed up by it