Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

[Jozay]

Shapiro listening to his scouts is a good thing.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Big Read: You should know Blue Jays prospect Bo Bichette - Sportsnet.ca

The Blue Jays didn’t fall into that category. Mariana built a dossier on the methods Atkins and Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro utilized in developing young players when they led Cleveland’s organization. They delved into the background of Toronto’s director of player development Gil Kim, who had recently joined the organization from the Texas Rangers. The Bichettes were also attracted to Toronto’s high-performance department and encouraged by the fact several Blue Jays big leaguers utilized unconventional swings, like Jose Bautista’s big leg kick or Josh Donaldson’s explosive approach.

Come draft night, Bichette had opportunities to be selected before the second round, but turned four separate teams down. With a commitment to Arizona State University in his back pocket, he nearly turned the Blue Jays down as well when they called to say they wanted to take him 66th and give him an at-slot signing bonus of $978,600. Bichette says he told Toronto, “Nah, I’m good,” and hung up the phone convinced he was going to ASU. His phone quickly went off again, this time with a near-panicked Bishoff on the other end of the line, trying to convince Bichette to budge. Again, Bichette said he was good. But with one minute remaining before their pick had to be finalized, the Blue Jays called back with a final offer of $1.1 million, which Bichette accepted.

Sounds like a team who really didn't want to draft a certain player. Shapiro had to be cursing with his hand over his mouth when he heard Bichette accepted. He must have been assuming he wouldn't and upped the offer to make it look like he was interested in drafting high school position players

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The whole narrative people have created around the Bichette draft pick might be the most ridiculous attempt to make them look bad out of all of them so far. There are actual reasons to be critical of Shapiro and Atkins. "Shatkins listened to their scouts and picked a great player!! How could they hur duuurz" Okay?

 

[ER89]

Gotta say, takes some balls to turn down nearly a million bucks as a kid.

 

[dangomon]

Gotta say, takes some balls to turn down nearly a million bucks as a kid.

Imagine Bo playing college ball though? Have to think his bonus would be much higher if he was drafted out of ASU.

 

[Discoverer]

Gotta say, takes some balls to turn down nearly a million bucks as a kid.

It's probably a little easier to take a risk like that when your dad made over $40 million in his career.

 

[Discoverer]

The whole narrative people have created around the Bichette draft pick might be the most ridiculous attempt to make them look bad out of all of them so far. There are actual reasons to be critical of Shapiro and Atkins. "Shatkins listened to their scouts and picked a great player!! How could they hur duuurz" Okay?

Ha, yeah. There are plenty of reasons not to believe it (I mean... making multiple desperate calls to the player and upping the offer at literally the last minute doesn't exactly scream "We don't want this player!"), but even if it's true, this is all a good thing.

If the Jays took someone else and then we found out that they didn't make the pick because Shapiro overruled the scouts, that would be a negative. But disagreeing with your staff and ultimately trusting their opinion and then going out of your way to allow them to do what they feel is right is exactly what you should want from someone in this role.

 

[ER89]

It's probably a little easier to take a risk like that when your dad made over $40 million in his career.

Fair, but can't deny the temptation to turn down your OWN million is still crazy.

 

[Mach85]

The whole narrative people have created around the Bichette draft pick might be the most ridiculous attempt to make them look bad out of all of them so far. There are actual reasons to be critical of Shapiro and Atkins. "Shatkins listened to their scouts and picked a great player!! How could they hur duuurz" Okay?

People seem to want things to always be black and white, it either is or it isn't, rather than taking a nuanced approach when necessary. It's possible to dislike certain traits or things that a Pres/GM does but overall still think they're pretty decent at their job. That perspective doesn't really suit the hot take environment of modern writing though.

 

[phillipmike]

I know how much Simmons is loved here, but he wrote an interesting column on how Shatkins had to be convinced by scouts to take Bichette. They wanted no part in drafting high school position players. Jays scouts wanted him bad. Shatkins refused to use their second round pick on him. By the way that pick is no longer playing baseball. They held their breath hoping he would last into the third round. Oh and Shatkins fired the main scout responsible two months later. I will admit I am biased as hell. I can’t stand these two.

In Cleveland’s last 5 years under Shapiro, his teams have taken a balance of high school position players and college position players in the top 3 rounds - so there is nothing to suggest what you said is true.

2011: Francisco Lindor
2012: None
2013: Clint Frazier
2014: None
2015: None

Many players taken in the top 3 rounds were pitchers, if you want to fault him for that then you can.

2016: Bo Bichette
2017: Hagen Danner
2018: Jordan Groshans
2019: Dasan Brown

Ha, yeah. There are plenty of reasons not to believe it (I mean... making multiple desperate calls to the player and upping the offer at literally the last minute doesn't exactly scream "We don't want this player!"), but even if it's true, this is all a good thing.

If the Jays took someone else and then we found out that they didn't make the pick because Shapiro overruled the scouts, that would be a negative. But disagreeing with your staff and ultimately trusting their opinion and then going out of your way to allow them to do what they feel is right is exactly what you should want from someone in this role.

There is actually more evidence to suggest this happening as this is what happened in Cleveland with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.

Why would Mark Shapiro leave Cleveland Indians for Toronto Blue Jays? - cleveland.com

With the Indians, all baseball and business decisions run through Shapiro. On the baseball side, he has gone out of his way to give Antonetti the freedom to make trades and other player acquisitions. When Antonetti traded No.1 picks Alex White and Drew Pomeranz to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011, Shapiro said he wouldn't have done it, but he OK'd the move because he believed in Antonetti.

 

[dredeye]

McGuirre is not a bust?

You’re thinking of Deck and not Reese

 

[Morgs]

1:12	BlueJayMatt: Nate Pearson is shooting up other prospect rankings, is it just health concerns that is keeping him lower on yours? What does he need to do to move up THE BOARD other than just stay on the field?

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:15	Kiley McDaniel: 1st 17 games (55 IP): 2.37 FIP Last 8 games (46 IP): 3.41 FIP

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:16	Kiley McDaniel: Not to say he isn’t good, but that context is important

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:16	Kiley McDaniel: if you take that mid-3’s FIP and look at the 2019 stats of all the top 100 pitchers in the minors (we use xFIP there, but basically the same): https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&…

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:16	Kiley McDaniel: that’s right in the middle

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:17	Kiley McDaniel: He isn’t young for the level and we have him rated in the top third of that cohort

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:18	Kiley McDaniel: It’s positive that he’s stayed healthy and you could easily argue he should be about 20th instead of 36th, but I think there’s a little too much scouting the stat line/radar gun in some other rankings

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:18	Kiley McDaniel: Would you rather have a guy that throws as hard as anyone on Earth (incredibly risky historically, both for reliever and injury reasons) or Kelenic or Waters? I’d take the hitters.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:19	Kiley McDaniel: I’ve already talked about the Luis Robert stuff at length

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: If you’re ranking players on a rubric where its tools + numbers and very little else considered, then you will have rankings that often don’t agree with ours in the top 50 or so. We try to both predict the future of what we think the players will produce in terms of WAR and mirror what teams are valuing/thinking, so some guys like Pearson or Robert will appear that we’re just late because this guy has power and goofy numbers or throws 103, but a computer can very easily replicate that process

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Seems like a silly take by Kiley.

 

[phillipmike]

Seems like a silly take by Kiley.

Yeah weird. Only thing I agree with is that he prefers hitters but it’s laughable that they have Pearson ranked as the 12th best pitcher.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Jansen has been horrendous with the bat, I expected better. How come McGuire comes up and starts hitting but Jansen is struggling all season?

 

[Morgs]

Jansen has been horrendous with the bat, I expected better. How come McGuire comes up and starts hitting but Jansen is struggling all season?

Might have something to do with the 5th worst BABIP in players above 300 PAs this season.

I'm honestly worried at all, the bat is too good. We were told to be worried about the defense, but its been a major plus so far.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Might have something to do with the 5th worst BABIP in players above 300 PAs this season.

I'm honestly worried at all, the bat is too good. We were told to be worried about the defense, but its been a major plus so far.

Yea, I noticed that his WAR is ~1.0. Most of it must be his D.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Jansen has been horrendous with the bat, I expected better. How come McGuire comes up and starts hitting but Jansen is struggling all season?

Because he wasn't struggling all season. He had an awful, awful start, after which he was pretty much average. But that awful start is in your numbers all season.

 

[The Nemesis]

Jansen has been horrendous with the bat, I expected better. How come McGuire comes up and starts hitting but Jansen is struggling all season?

Yea, I noticed that his WAR is ~1.0. Most of it must be his D.

No, most of it is his below-average offence.

wRC+ by month (PA in parentheses)
March/April: 39 (75)
May: 20 (70)
June: 95 (64)
July: 101 (80)
August: 108 (58)
September: -71 (10)

As was said, he had an absolute garbage start to the year, but has been solid from June onward (super small sample sized September notwithstanding). But that sketchy March-May is about 40% of his PAs for the season, so it's going to drag everything down the rest of the way.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

No, most of it is his below-average offence.

wRC+ by month (PA in parentheses)
March/April: 39 (75)
May: 20 (70)
June: 95 (64)
July: 101 (80)
August: 108 (58)
September: -71 (10)

As was said, he had an absolute garbage start to the year, but has been solid from June onward (super small sample sized September notwithstanding). But that sketchy March-May is about 40% of his PAs for the season, so it's going to drag everything down the rest of the way.

I think he meant his pretty good WAR is due to his defense despite a poor total offense for the year. Which is accurate, Jansen is one of the most valuable defensive players in the game this year.

Jansen is making a pretty good case for being an elite defender, and there's good reason to think he's good for a catcher to plain good hitter as well. Personally, I'd peg him as the third most promising young MLB position player Toronto has right now, after Vlad and Bo. Danny is getting the point you can pretty easily see a regular starter in him, and its not hard to see an all-star if thing break right.

 

[BlueForever75]

I think he meant his pretty good WAR is due to his defense despite a poor total offense for the year. Which is accurate, Jansen is one of the most valuable defensive players in the game this year.

Jansen is making a pretty good case for being an elite defender, and there's good reason to think he's good for a catcher to plain good hitter as well. Personally, I'd peg him as the third most promising young MLB position player Toronto has right now, after Vlad and Bo. Danny is getting the point you can pretty easily see a regular starter in him, and its not hard to see an all-star if thing break right.

Jansen has the tools to become the best catcher off all time in the Blue Jays organization. His defense as it stands now is above average for catchers in all MLB as a rookie, his batting numbers are not all that horrible when you take out the first month and half of the season where he didn't even hit a HR. After his first month and half of the season hes hit .256 with 12 HR and 36 RBI's. That isn't too shabby when you consider all catchers are more focused on calling a game then hitting when they first come up. The hitting will come around. He will be your yearly .250, 20 HR and 75 RBI with great defense catcher. I will take that all day long on this team.

 

[phillipmike]

Jansen has yet to play 162 games yet in the majors. I expected better from his bat but its still early.

In his first 133 MLB games = 2.3 fWAR and 79 wRC+

Prorate that to 162 games and thats a 2.8 fWAR rookie catcher making the league minimum under control for 5 more years.

Jays have had 10 career catchers with a CUMULATIVE 2.4 fWAR or more in their career as Jays. Cumulative. Jansen is already 11th in franchise history in fWAR in his first 133 games.

Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2019 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

If Jansen actually produced 2.8 fWAR in a season it would be tied for the 8th best season from a Jays career in franchise history. Only behind Martin, Whitt and Borders.

Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2019 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

I like where is career might go from here.

Doesnt hurt that you have McGuire who put up 0.8 fWAR in 21 games vs Jansen's 0.8 fWAR in 30 games in 2018. Very small sample size but its nice to finally have depth at the catcher position.

 

[thehockeysong]

Jansen has yet to play 162 games yet in the majors. I expected better from his bat but its still early.

In his first 133 MLB games = 2.3 fWAR and 79 wRC+

Prorate that to 162 games and thats a 2.8 fWAR rookie catcher making the league minimum under control for 5 more years.

Jays have had 10 career catchers with a CUMULATIVE 2.4 fWAR or more in their career as Jays. Cumulative. Jansen is already 11th in franchise history in fWAR in his first 133 games.

Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2019 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

If Jansen actually produced 2.8 fWAR in a season it would be tied for the 8th best season from a Jays career in franchise history. Only behind Martin, Whitt and Borders.

Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2019 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

I like where is career might go from here.

Doesnt hurt that you have McGuire who put up 0.8 fWAR in 21 games vs Jansen's 0.8 fWAR in 30 games in 2018. Very small sample size but its nice to finally have depth at the catcher position.

Nice job pulling those numbers together, that's interesting to see. Add the catching prospect depth in the low minors and we should be able to safely check that box as far as the future roster is concerned.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Anyone know what is the contract status of Devon Travis? I am just wondering is he going to be a free agent this winter or team still controls him? I am guessing if he is still under team control that they will DFA him in the winter. No way they put him on the 40 man roster.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Can someone tell me why Boshers is in the MLB right now? Seems every time I catch him pitching he's hitting bats with baseballs

 

[phillipmike]

Anyone know what is the contract status of Devon Travis? I am just wondering is he going to be a free agent this winter or team still controls him? I am guessing if he is still under team control that they will DFA him in the winter. No way they put him on the 40 man roster.

They control him and can have him next season if they tender him a contract. They likely non tender him and he becomes a free agent.