Turcotte- time to worry?

[Ziggy Stardust]

In three years, Turcotte went from being a 5th overall pick to likely not even being ranked as a top 10 prospect within the organization. His career is highly doubtful, and his body (and head) has already taken a beating after just one season in college and two seasons in the minors.

 

[Lt Dan]

In three years, Turcotte went from being a 5th overall pick to likely not even being ranked as a top 10 prospect within the organization. His career is highly doubtful, and his body (and head) has already taken a beating after just one season in college and two seasons in the minors.

It's time for Turcotte to start selling Amway

 

[Herby]

The amount of damage these kids have taken in the AHL has completely changed my mind on using the A as a developmental league. I’d much rather these kids keep playing against players their own age until they’re strong enough to play against men.

Having Byfield, Turcotte and Kupari in the AHL as teenagers was a big mistake. Blake made a common mistake that executives make, he brought in friends to work for him and he placed to much responsibility in their hands.

This lead to some valuable assets bring damaged in the process.

In three years, Turcotte went from being a 5th overall pick to likely not even being ranked as a top 10 prospect within the organization. His career is highly doubtful, and his body (and head) has already taken a beating after just one season in college and two seasons in the minors.

Blake's moves tell you exactly how he feels about Turcotte and Vilardi. Had 1 of Turcotte or Vilardi lived up to the draft capital used on them there is no Danault signing. The Kings gave Gabe Vilardi the #2C spot for the entire 20-21 season. If Gabe had played at a level similar to some 2017 draft peers did last year are the Kings bringing in a 4th center to go along with Kopitar, QB and Vilardi? Nope, zero chance.

Same thing with Turcotte, lets just pretend that Turcotte returned to UW last season and had a Beniers type season where he was a dominant 200 foot player in the NCAA that immediately stepped into the NHL and looked the part to end the 20-21 season. There is no chance with Kopitar signed for 3 more years, Byfield about to turn 19 and Turcotte 20 that you bring in another center for 5 more years.

Blake bringing in Danault was basically Blake throwing in the towel on the belief that either Vilardi or Turcotte can be counted on as potential top 6 options.

The injuries really do suck for Turcotte, because if he doesn't make the NHL it's likely because of injuries and he loses out on a career and the Kings get nothing from the pick. If he can get over the concussions he can still be a useful top 9 forward in the NHL, but I agree, it's just tough to be able to count on someone so injury prone.

But there were just such large red flags about his skill level from his initial season after the draft onward. It's just not likely that even with the best development choices and health that he was going to result in anything close to a decent ROI for a #5 overall pick.

In Alex Turcotte's freshman year at UW, he scored 1G, 7A in 21 conference games, not scoring a goal until his 19th B10 game. He went 14 straight games overall without a goal and 8 without a point. This was pretty awful production for a Top 5 pick.

In Alex Turcotte's first season in Ontario he scored 6 times in 32 times. Including 3 times in his first 29 games before scoring a hat trick late in the year. He had goal-less droughts of 8-8-6 games.

Again, this is a Top 5 pick and this is what he did offensively in his D+1 and D+2 seasons in levels below the NHL.

So many here just completely dismissive of just how bad and disappointing the D+1 was. What is the expectation for a player taken #5OA who has committed to NCAA hockey? Is it fair to say that after 1 season a n optimistic view could be that he takes a Larkin like step and dominates and makes the jump immediately after his freshman year? If you go back and look at the thread about him, that is just what many people expected, and again based on guys like Larkin, Keller and now even Zegras from the similar (but worse) draft spots that was not unreasonable. Or maybe he has that Beniers type season where he is close and comes back and dominates more and steps into the NHL at the end of his sophomore season like Beniers did? Well that didn't happen either, he was not a Beniers caliber player as a freshman and Blake prevented any chance at him having a dominant D+2 season in the NCAA with a foolish problem that added gasoline to the fire.

I know the argument anytime I bring up similar cases from the past is "It'll be different for the Kings", but what is the success rate of Top 10 picks who have disappointing D+1, D+2 and D+3 seasons at levels below the NHL? It's horrible and I bet everyone here who follows NHL prospects outside the Kings knows it, but will still insist it's different for all the struggling Kings prospects.

And you guys think it hurts this year, wait until next year when Zegras is a point-per-game player, Seider establishes himself as a high end #1, Caufield scores 35 goals and Boldy is 25G, 40A.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ahhh, I see Herby is now feeling empowered by Turcotte's injury to go on the hypocritical rant where he cherry picks particular stats to make Turcotte look worse after getting mad at me for showing the opposite...just gross behavior, Herby.

Gentle reminder that Turcotte had 25 points in the other 19 NCAA games when healthy and that goal scoring wasn't his prowess anyway, even less so when having to cover constantly for Cole Caufield. Same with his AHL production when healthy...he was PPG when he returned from the first concussion and was showing a lot more (given more responsibility with guys out of the lineup..sound familiar).

It's terribly unfortunate that his 2nd concussion completely derailed him here. It's even more unfortunate that some detractors will take that as a sign to start the chest thumping parade.

 

[johnjm22]

I still think Turcotte will be an NHL player, but it's going to be a long road.

Sometimes "not getting injured" is a skill that a player has to learn.

Turcotte's mentality reminds me of a young QB who's decided they're going to stand in the pocket and make that pass no matter what; don't care about getting hit. These types of guys usually don't make it to the pros, or have short careers if they do. The smart ones realize staying healthy is part of the game.

 

[Herby]

Ahhh, I see Herby is now feeling empowered by Turcotte's injury to go on the hypocritical rant where he cherry picks particular stats to make Turcotte look worse after getting mad at me for showing the opposite...just gross behavior, Herby.

Gentle reminder that Turcotte had 25 points in the other 19 NCAA games when healthy and that goal scoring wasn't his prowess anyway, even less so when having to cover constantly for Cole Caufield. Same with his AHL production when healthy...he was PPG when he returned from the first concussion and was showing a lot more (given more responsibility with guys out of the lineup..sound familiar).

It's terribly unfortunate that his 2nd concussion completely derailed him here. It's even more unfortunate that some detractors will take that as a sign to start the chest thumping parade.

It was going off the rails before the 2nd concussion, unless being moved to wing and playing less games than every other pick in the top 20 is being on the rails. You accused me "chest thumping" before these concussions, you know, the tume accused me of being happy that the Kings prospects had disappointed. I did not bring up your name in my post, but sure, here we go. Your opinions on the prospect were woefully off when we first started having the debates, if Turcotte were as good as Zegras right now you'd be reminding me about it non-stop, but now you have to resort to your excuse filled posts the first two seasons and the insistence that he was still looking like Toews and Richards and then calling anyone who thought otherwise a "hater". Now ofcourse he is "Lizotte +", which is pretty similar to Andrew Copp and Andrew Cogliano, but who could have guessed that? In one sentence you agree with what I've been saying the last 2 years (Lizotte +), but then in another you insist that his offensive production has not been a disappointment. If his offensive production hasn't been a disappointment why do you now have him projected as Lizotte+?

*Although I just say the "while covering for Cole Caufield" as an excuse for lack of offensive production is a new alltime one. Caufield was the best player on the team every game he played at Wisconsin, and was one of the most offensively gifted players in the last two decades in the NCAA. The year after Turcotte left Caufield's two linemates finished 1&2 in assists in the Big Ten. Yet here we are using playing with a player like that as an excuse for why you didn't score a lot.

You brought up this BS "25 points in 19 NCAA games" last time and there is no basis in reality to it, you couldn't explain it then and you won't be able to now. You talk about me cherry picking, yet you cherry pick his decent games in the NCAA and then say all the other ones he was injured, to reach your numbers you would have to say he was unhealthy in all the games he was awful in and healthy only for the ones he did well in, while somehow playing in the WJC right in the middle of this supposedly awful injury. A player who has missed countless games as a pro was able to play and miss only 7 of 42 games. Somehow that makes more sense than just saying he excelled vs lesser competition and struggled vs better ones, which is factually true.

The AHL stats are not cherry picked, it was a factual statement, he had multiple stretches where he didn't do anything offensively in the AHL in his D+1, again as a Top 5 pick. Do you consider either of his AHL seasons to be positive ones based on where he was drafted?


What was an expected D+1 season for a player the Kings took #5 overall in the draft?

What was an expected D+2 season for a player the Kings took #5 overall in the draft?

How many players taken in the top 10 have recovered from 3 seasons like he has had to be a good NHL'er?

If Turcotte had a Larkin type development path or a Beniers type development path do you believe Blake signs Danault?

It was a consensus pick, no debate, it was not a reach, it was a pick in range that went bad for the Kings, same as Vilardi, apparently now that is ok as long as you didn't reach, yet 16 years ago Dave Taylor lost his job for missing on a lot of his consensus picks.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

There are few certainties in life, but one of them, is Herby complaining about every single 1st round prospect going back 40 years, and going forward 60 years,

The other certainty, is I piss a shit ton of people off....so there is that.

 

[Herby]

There are few certainties in life, but one of them, is Herby complaining about every single 1st round prospect going back 40 years, and going forward 60 years,

The other certainty, is I piss a shit ton of people off....so there is that.

Really?

I was disappointed with Doughty and Kopitar? - You used to be able to go all the way back and read those posts, not sure if that is the case anymore. But I can guarantee you I was convinced Kopitar was our version of Forsberg/Fedorov/Modano from the first time I saw him on NHL ice. That is what an impact young player looks like, and he was one.

Same thing with Doughty, you could tell right away that he was going to be a huge star. Again I can guarantee you with 100% certainty I was not negative on Doughty.

Schenn I was meh, I didn't hate him but I also didn't think he was going to be the next Mike Richards.

I was disappointed with Tanner Pearson? Go check the GDT's from the 2014 playoffs, I was convinced he was going to be a star for the Kings. I know I said it to other people and I think I said it here, he was the best player on the ice for the Kings in Game 5 of 2014.

Forbort? Well I initially liked the pick but much like with Turcotte it only took a couple of NCAA games to realize that this pick was never going to be a good ROI pick.

I've said anything bad about Brandt Clarke?

Yes, I admit I am extremely skeptical of this group of centers they used a bunch of high picks on and have been once I have been able to regularly see each play either on TV or in person. I was ripped to shreds by you and others for suggesting that a core lead by these 3 was not the answer and unfortunately I believe most of what I said has come true. I just don't play the everyone is going to hit game, just been through to many Kings rebuilds to fall for it. I'll be convinced when I see another Doughty or Kopitar drafted and put out there. That is the type of player you need to get with one of those back to back top 5 picks.

Question for you, what is a fair expectation for each of these players. By the end of this season where should we have expected them in the lineup?

#11 OA pick in his D+5
#5 OA pick in his D+3
#2 OA pick in his D+2

 

[kenito7]

It was going off the rails before the 2nd concussion, unless being moved to wing and playing less games than every other pick in the top 20 is being on the rails. You accused me "chest thumping" before these concussions, you know, the tume accused me of being happy that the Kings prospects had disappointed. I did not bring up your name in my post, but sure, here we go. Your opinions on the prospect were woefully off when we first started having the debates, if Turcotte were as good as Zegras right now you'd be reminding me about it non-stop, but now you have to resort to your excuse filled posts the first two seasons and the insistence that he was still looking like Toews and Richards and then calling anyone who thought otherwise a "hater". Now ofcourse he is "Lizotte +", which is pretty similar to Andrew Copp and Andrew Cogliano, but who could have guessed that? In one sentence you agree with what I've been saying the last 2 years (Lizotte +), but then in another you insist that his offensive production has not been a disappointment. If his offensive production hasn't been a disappointment why do you now have him projected as Lizotte+?

*Although I just say the "while covering for Cole Caufield" as an excuse for lack of offensive production is a new alltime one. Caufield was the best player on the team every game he played at Wisconsin, and was one of the most offensively gifted players in the last two decades in the NCAA. The year after Turcotte left Caufield's two linemates finished 1&2 in assists in the Big Ten. Yet here we are using playing with a player like that as an excuse for why you didn't score a lot.

You brought up this BS "25 points in 19 NCAA games" last time and there is no basis in reality to it, you couldn't explain it then and you won't be able to now. You talk about me cherry picking, yet you cherry pick his decent games in the NCAA and then say all the other ones he was injured, to reach your numbers you would have to say he was unhealthy in all the games he was awful in and healthy only for the ones he did well in, while somehow playing in the WJC right in the middle of this supposedly awful injury. A player who has missed countless games as a pro was able to play and miss only 7 of 42 games. Somehow that makes more sense than just saying he excelled vs lesser competition and struggled vs better ones, which is factually true.

The AHL stats are not cherry picked, it was a factual statement, he had multiple stretches where he didn't do anything offensively in the AHL in his D+1, again as a Top 5 pick. Do you consider either of his AHL seasons to be positive ones based on where he was drafted?


What was an expected D+1 season for a player the Kings took #5 overall in the draft?

What was an expected D+2 season for a player the Kings took #5 overall in the draft?

How many players taken in the top 10 have recovered from 3 seasons like he has had to be a good NHL'er?

If Turcotte had a Larkin type development path or a Beniers type development path do you believe Blake signs Danault?

It was a consensus pick, no debate, it was not a reach, it was a pick in range that went bad for the Kings, same as Vilardi, apparently now that is ok as long as you didn't reach, yet 16 years ago Dave Taylor lost his job for missing on a lot of his consensus picks.

Wouldn't it be easier to just write Turcotte sucks.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Really?

I was disappointed with Doughty and Kopitar? - You used to be able to go all the way back and read those posts, not sure if that is the case anymore. But I can guarantee you I was convinced Kopitar was our version of Forsberg/Fedorov/Modano from the first time I saw him on NHL ice. That is what an impact young player looks like, and he was one.

Same thing with Doughty, you could tell right away that he was going to be a huge star. Again I can guarantee you with 100% certainty I was not negative on Doughty.

Schenn I was meh, I didn't hate him but I also didn't think he was going to be the next Mike Richards.

I was disappointed with Tanner Pearson? Go check the GDT's from the 2014 playoffs, I was convinced he was going to be a star for the Kings. I know I said it to other people and I think I said it here, he was the best player on the ice for the Kings in Game 5 of 2014.

Forbort? Well I initially liked the pick but much like with Turcotte it only took a couple of NCAA games to realize that this pick was never going to be a good ROI pick.

I've said anything bad about Brandt Clarke?

Yes, I admit I am extremely skeptical of this group of centers they used a bunch of high picks on and have been once I have been able to regularly see each play either on TV or in person. I was ripped to shreds by you and others for suggesting that a core lead by these 3 was not the answer and unfortunately I believe most of what I said has come true. I just don't play the everyone is going to hit game, just been through to many Kings rebuilds to fall for it. I'll be convinced when I see another Doughty or Kopitar drafted and put out there. That is the type of player you need to get with one of those back to back top 5 picks.

Question for you, what is a fair expectation for each of these players. By the end of this season where should we have expected them in the lineup?

#11 OA pick in his D+5
#5 OA pick in his D+3
#2 OA pick in his D+2

Sensitive much, damn, a bit of hyperbole there gets a goddamn diatribe.....

 

[SufferingSelfCreated]

Wouldn't it be easier to just write Turcotte sucks.

Thanks for the summary. I wasn't about to read all that s***

 

[Herby]

Sensitive much, damn, a bit of hyperbole there gets a goddamn diatribe.....

Well it gets annoying to hear stuff like that, like it’s a blind hatred. Plus it’s not even close to being remotely true.

Wouldn't it be easier to just write Turcotte sucks.

He always gives me a good debate so I give it back.

I just don’t get why you guys just don’t either ignore or scroll down.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

People are getting on you, @Herby, because you're right, and nobody here wants to admit it.

It's painful to admit, but this might become more of a dud selection than the Thomas Hickey pick.

Ah well, at least we get a close up view of a dazzling star down the road who will constantly remind us of what could and should have been...

 

[lexlavender]

WHO THE f*** MADE THE JOKE ABOUT 9 MISFORTUNES REGARDING OUR PROSPECT POOL, YOU JINXED THIS SHIT

 

[King'sPawn]

There are multiple facets with the Turcotte pick:
- He was, for all intents and purposes, a "safe" pick. And there were valid comparisons to Toews as far as role in his draft year (not necessarily impact). He demonstrated a scoring touch, two-way play, and punched above his weight class. These are all desirable qualities in any prospect. He also wasn't a "big" player, so the Kings seemed to veer away from their usual MO of prioritizing size.
- He has had valid roadblocks affecting his productivity every season. Yes, his D+1, 2, 3 seasons are all below average, but these are defensible by having a variety of injuries and illness (Mono, COVID, now concussions, etc).
- In light of his reduced production, the hope is that he can still carve out a career as an NHLer, even if he's not developing into a top-six player we hoped.
- The lack of progress in Turcotte is magnified by the fact that no other prospect has taken on a top-six role in several years. If Vilardi/Byfield was playing in the top-six right now, we could, for lack of a better word, handwave the Turcotte pick as "one that didn't work out" which DOES happen with top-five picks. (just the past few seasons, look at Kotkaniemi, Patrick, Juolevi, etc).

I still hold out hope that he can have some NHL career, but of course that's second priority to his health. I maintain Turcotte wasn't a bad pick. It just has several variables that in hindsight make it look worse than it actually was at the time.

Edit: cleared up verbiage and redundancies

 

[kenito7]

Well it gets annoying to hear stuff like that, like it’s a blind hatred. Plus it’s not even close to being remotely true.

He always gives me a good debate so I give it back.

I just don’t get why you guys just don’t either ignore or scroll down.

I have found many things you have posted interesting even informative but when it comes to
Turcotte you have beat that horse to death. I would recommend that you reread all your Turcotte posts and tell me that you can't see where someone might get the impression that you don't like Turcotte.

 

[Herby]

I have found many things you have posted interesting even informative but when it comes to
Turcotte you have beat that horse to death. I would recommend that you reread all your Turcotte posts and tell me that you can't see where someone might get the impression that you don't like Turcotte.

I have numerous times compared him to decent top 9 players in this league, specifically Andrew Copp and Andrew Cogliano. I don’t hate Blake Lizotte, he’s a quality player for the Kings.

I don’t hate the player, I hate where he was drafted and who we could gotten with that pick.

Draft capital used is a valid factor in evaluating whether a pick is good or not.

 

[SmytheKing]

I still maintain Turcotte wasn't a bad pick. It just has several variables that in hindsight make it look worse than it actually was at the time.

I feel like there's something that gets missed in this discussion about the pick and Turcotte. The pick itself wasn't bad. Anyone arguing it was bad at the time is using hindsight 100%. It's just that not admitting it wasn't a good pick NOW seems silly. It was, as you said, a safe pick. Pretty much everyone had him, Dach, and Byram as the next folks off the board. Zegras and Seider, who I think it's clear are the top two between the ones the Kings coulda had, would have both been a big risk (Seider) and a risk (Zegras) had the Kings picked either of them at that spot.

Nothing wrong with the pick at the time, just seems silly to still think it's a good pick. We've seen enough of a sample size to know what his career is going to be (even without this latest injury) and that's ok to acknowledge.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I feel like there's something that gets missed in this discussion about the pick and Turcotte. The pick itself wasn't bad. Anyone arguing it was bad at the time is using hindsight 100%. It's just that not admitting it wasn't a good pick NOW seems silly. It was, as you said, a safe pick. Pretty much everyone had him, Dach, and Byram as the next folks off the board. Zegras and Seider, who I think it's clear are the top two between the ones the Kings coulda had, would have both been a big risk (Seider) and a risk (Zegras) had the Kings picked either of them at that spot.

Nothing wrong with the pick at the time, just seems silly to still think it's a good pick. We've seen enough of a sample size to know what his career is going to be (even without this latest injury) and that's ok to acknowledge.

You can be down on where he is now without waiting for a 2nd concussion to write a manifesto on why he has always sucked.

It's like showing up to someone's funeral to talk shit.

 

[SmytheKing]

You can be down on where he is now without waiting for a 2nd concussion to write a manifesto on why he has always sucked.

It's like showing up to someone's funeral to talk shit.

While I disagree with some of the points Herby was making in his post, it's hardly the first time they've written in length about why the Kings screwed him up. Honestly I've seen it more of an indictment of their development than Turcotte specifically when he's mentioned several issues. YMMV though.

 

[Herby]

You can be down on where he is now without waiting for a 2nd concussion to write a manifesto on why he has always sucked.

It's like showing up to someone's funeral to talk shit.

As opposed to insisting for 2+ years that

“nothing is wrong with his development”
“He’s plenty skilled”
“The offense will eventually come”

Btw, not sure why your hung up on this concussion, my thoughts didn’t change with this concussion. We had these debates long before this concussion.

We actually agree now, he’s a Lizotte+ player. Took you awhile to get there but we do agree on his potential NHL upside.

I just don’t get why you are still fighting NCAA and AHL lack of production but then also saying he’s Lizotte+. Just seems contradictory.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

As opposed to insisting for 2+ years that

“nothing is wrong with his development”
“He’s plenty skilled”
“The offense will eventually come”

Btw, not sure why your hung up on this concussion, my thoughts didn’t change with this concussion. We had these debates long before this concussion.

We actually agree now, he’s a Lizotte+ player. Took you awhile to get there but we do agree on his potential NHL upside.

I just don’t get why you are still fighting NCAA and AHL lack of production but then also saying he’s Lizotte+. Just seems contradictory.

There's no reason to "see told you his college production sucked" right now other than to dance on his grave. It's that simple. especially with the cherry picking (apparently assists don't count and games not against U's in Michigan/Minnesota don't count amongst other things?).

How productive do you expect the discussion to be when you're rehashing irrelevant 3-year-old discussions unsolicited? It's petty at best and yeah I'm gonna call you on it.

 

[Statto]

I feel like there's something that gets missed in this discussion about the pick and Turcotte. The pick itself wasn't bad. Anyone arguing it was bad at the time is using hindsight 100%. It's just that not admitting it wasn't a good pick NOW seems silly. It was, as you said, a safe pick. Pretty much everyone had him, Dach, and Byram as the next folks off the board. Zegras and Seider, who I think it's clear are the top two between the ones the Kings coulda had, would have both been a big risk (Seider) and a risk (Zegras) had the Kings picked either of them at that spot.

Nothing wrong with the pick at the time, just seems silly to still think it's a good pick. We've seen enough of a sample size to know what his career is going to be (even without this latest injury) and that's ok to acknowledge.

It was a good pick. Everything that’s happened to him since is what is bad. He had demonstrated that he can play at every level once he’s settled in and is healthy, and when that’s been the case in those stretches he’s been good. Unfortunately his injuries mean those stretches are few and far between. His short NHL stint showed promise as well.

IF, and it is a big if, he can bounce back from these concussions and add some strength then he could still be an good middle six player. His development has been derailed and maybe he never makes it, but his heart means you can’t rule him out.

 

[bmr]

It was a good pick. Everything that’s happened to him since is what is bad. He had demonstrated that he can play at every level once he’s settled in and is healthy, and when that’s been the case in those stretches he’s been good. Unfortunately his injuries mean those stretches are few and far between. His short NHL stint showed promise as well.

IF, and it is a big if, he can bounce back from these concussions and add some strength then he could still be an good middle six player. His development has been derailed and maybe he never makes it, but his heart means you can’t rule him out.

I agree - none of us were disappointed in that pick at all. Hindsight is a b****. Who knew what Seider, Zegras, etc.. were going to turn out better. I think it hurts a lot less because we got guys like Bjornfot, Kaliyev, Fagemo and Spence. It may be easier to look at Turcotte like Vilardi so we don't have any expectations or disappointment.

Sans the injuries, I honestly think Turcotte has performed pretty well this year in the A. He was 6-12-18 in 27 games and a +16. Had 2 assists in the playoffs before that nasty hit. Here's hoping he can get healthy and stay healthy. I'll say this - he plays a better 200 ft game than Zegras.

 

[bouncesonly]

Vilardi with the back injury, Turcotte with mono/covid/concussions, Byfield with covid and injury.....Kings first rounders are much like it's power play.....lifeless, possibly cursed.