Proposal: Trouba Mega-Thread Part III

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Who hired Roy?

That's like saying that Chevy is a terrible GM because he gave Pavelec a 5 year contract.

 

[lomiller1]

Man, every time I take a look at these Trouba trade proposal threads it just reminds me how completely unrealistic Jets fans expectations are when it comes to a return.

Typically "star" players that are contract issues who want to be traded don't return as much as you'd like. Avs fans have experienced this first hand recently with the O'Reilly situation. Us fans thought we were going to get the moon for O'Reilly, but while we got a decent return it was nowhere near as good as we thought it was going to be.

When Jets fans ask for MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, sorry it's not going to happen. Nope. Never. Next. You can also probably forget asking about Rantanen or Jost as the Avs are extremely thin upfront and it wouldn't make sense to deal any top end offensive prospect for a defensive player.

I also see the ignorance in most Jets fans when they want Zadorov over Bigras. While Zadorov does have more raw talent than Bigras, Bigras is a very solid young player. Who is much more consistent and could easily turn into the better NHLer in the long run, as Zadorov is kind of a boom or bust type guy and who knows if he'll ever hit that Boom stage of his career. I personally think Bigras will have the better NHL career and would trade Zadorov before I traded Bigras.

So based on the past and extrapolating what ROR returned to the Avs as a basis for trading a younger player with contract demands. A fair deal probably looks something like:

Bigras (nice prospect with high potential), Compher (another higher end prospect who has played well with one of your top prospects), Beaudin (mid level prospect with decent potential), cap dump (probably Comeau), 1st for Trouba and mid level roster player(Lowry) or prospect (Lemieux).

I know it's not exactly what Jets fans want from Trouba, but the likelihood of Jets finding a 1 for 1 type deal with any team is not high at this point in time with a guy making contract demands. Unfortunately that hurts a players value and GMs know this and will play the waiting game. Just like GMs waited for the O'Reilly situation to unfold in Colorado because they knew inevitably that it would get to the point where we had to move on from the player.

Compher projects as a third liner.
Bigras had the 7th worst Rel CF% of any NHL defenseman with more than 350 min played. Not only was his Rel CF% bad, it was bad relative to the worst possession team in the NHL. His absolute CF% was not only dead last it was nearly two full percentage points below the second worst in the league. He was arguably one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last year.

It what universe does anyone trade a young top pairing D for players like this? They are not even worth the “extra†players like Lemieux or Lowry you want the jets to add. Yet somehow it’s Jets fans that are being unrealistic.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

LOL. I guess Sakic is a pretty terrible GM so you could be right

I don't think it would be smart to trade your 21 year old 6'5 cost controlled stud defenseman who looks like he's probable to be the #1 on the LHD depth chart this year to a division opponent for Trouba who would be 3rd on the RHD depth chart

If you compared them 1 by 1 as hockey players Trouba is the better option but for Colorado it would be smarter to see what you have with Z before trading him for Trouba.

Plus salary would have to go the other way to get Trouba. There's no chance in hell Iginla waives to go to Winnipeg and guys like Mack/Duchene/Landeskog and Barrie sure as hell aren't being traded for Trouba.

 

[SCP Guy]

It's hard to know the value of a player that has to be traded. More often than not they tend to go for packages.

O'Reilly returned Zadorov, Grigorenko, 2nd round pick and Compher.
Turris returned Rundblad, 2nd round pick
Saad returned Dano, Anisimov (minor pieces added on both sides)

Cheveldayoff tried to keep the appearances up in September here by claiming as if Trouba was part of the long term plans. That triggered the Trouba camp and they released the statement that they had asked for a trade back in May. That means every GM know Cheveldayoff has limited leverage. He'll probably get a decent trade return but it won't be the one for one he might have fishing for since May.

You do realize his agent has been able to speak to every GM in the NHL all summer.....Do you really think he didn't tell them his client asked for a trade? They all knew, and the price has been the same since May his value didn't go down 2 weeks ago after they released the statement. If you want to argue and say his value will go down if he sits out an entire season I can understand your argument

 

[lomiller1]

It's hard to know the value of a player that has to be traded. More often than not they tend to go for packages.

O'Reilly returned Zadorov, Grigorenko, 2nd round pick and Compher.
Turris returned Rundblad, 2nd round pick
Saad returned Dano, Anisimov (minor pieces added on both sides)

Cheveldayoff tried to keep the appearances up in September here by claiming as if Trouba was part of the long term plans. That triggered the Trouba camp and they released the statement that they had asked for a trade back in May. That means every GM know Cheveldayoff has limited leverage. He'll probably get a decent trade return but it won't be the one for one he might have fishing for since May.

Turris was basically still a prospect at the time, O'Reilly only had 2 years of control left so they are not really comparable. The other thing to remember is that in those cases the teams in question had other holes to fill, while the only one the Jets are looking to fill is the one Trouba was already slotted in. Waiting until he’s forced to either sign or lose a year of his career is a legitimate option for Winnipeg, and a much better option than miscellaneous parts we don’t have room on the roster for.

 

[Paradise*]

That's like saying that Chevy is a terrible GM because he gave Pavelec a 5 year contract.

It's really not the same. Keep trying to justify that terrible hire.

I won't even bring up Colorado's poor contracts. I don't need to deflect.

 

[SaltySkywalker]

It's really not the same. Keep trying to justify that terrible hire.

I won't even bring up Colorado's poor contracts. I don't need to deflect.

And what would those be? Besides the terrible re-signing of Stuart before he had played a game and Maaaybe Iginlas...please enlighten us.

We have our whole core locked up and almost $20 million in cap space next year...

 

[Evil Little]

I still think best course of action is to get the best package, so if hat is forwards, so be it.

Sure, but given what the Oilers had to give up to get Larsson, no team is going to want to spend the high-value forward assets to get Trouba.

Jets have ole ty of forward assets to move to get a dman later.

Sure, but given what the Oilers had to give up to get Larsson, the Jets aren't going to want to spend the high-value forward assets to replace Trouba.

If he truly was top pairing today, we wouldn't be in this mess, would we?

We would. He doesn't want to be in Winnipeg.

Do you remember when people said the Leafs wouldn't get a first in a deal involving Franson on here?

Nope. People said the Leafs wouldn't get a 1st for Franson. And they didn't.

Santorelli was supposedly worth a 2nd+ on his own, so...

I don't believe the stats. He isn't that special on his own.

Yeah, his stats are all playing with the great Stuart*.

*As an aside--and familiar to those who listened to the last PDOcast--Trouba is the only player ever to partner Stuart to positive CF%. Not even prime Chara could.

 

[The Abusement Park]

And what would those be? Besides the terrible re-signing of Stuart before he had played a game and Maaaybe Iginlas...please enlighten us.

We have our whole core locked up and almost $20 million in cap space next year...

Terrible GM'ing right there... I'd hate to have an entire core locked up for less than 6.3mil a year, just ridiculous.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Compher projects as a third liner.
Bigras had the 7th worst Rel CF% of any NHL defenseman with more than 350 min played. Not only was his Rel CF% bad, it was bad relative to the worst possession team in the NHL. His absolute CF% was not only dead last it was nearly two full percentage points below the second worst in the league. He was arguably one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last year.

It what universe does anyone trade a young top pairing D for players like this? They are not even worth the “extra†players like Lemieux or Lowry you want the jets to add. Yet somehow it’s Jets fans that are being unrealistic.

Fancy stats proving their ignorance once again. As a rookie Bigras was the one stuck babysitting whatever crap Dman we were forced to play. He barely ever got scored on, and even less times was he actually the guilty party, which won't show up in any stat. And it wasn't until the end of the season when he actual started to have some bad games, which was also when he was coming off a concussion as well.

I'm not saying anything about the trade, just your comment about Bigras being one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last year. Perfect example of why fancy stats can be misleading.

 

[Ivan13]

It's not like your posts had any merit to them before this post, but now they certainly dont.

95>94, do you even math

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I would be very skeptical about Trouba to COL making a lot of sense right now.

COL doesn't have the cap to sign Trouba without sending someone with salary back. Colorado is also very strong at RD with the underrated Erik Johnson and one of the most productive RDs in Tyson Barrie in their lineup. So unless they project Trouba to be a franchise #1 type guy (which they might....), going after him seems like a big change in a position they don't need to improve.

With the cap element, it has to be Beauchemin, Barrie, or Johnson going back, and despite his strong year last season I would think that WPG would have no interest in Beauchemin given his age and contract length and possible NMC (Do NMCs still remain valid after trades?)

Colorado has the pieces to make a competitive offer for Trouba. They have Zadorov who isn't on Trouba's level potential wise but is a very solid LD prospect. They have Rantanen, Jost, and their 1st next year. With that said, I can't see them wanting to part with a combination those pieces to improve a position they are already strong at. The rumours made sense prior to Barrie signing, now they don't.

 

[strictlyrandy]

That's like saying that Chevy is a terrible GM because he gave Pavelec a 5 year contract.

It's funny because Roy was only a coach for 3 years.. how long has Pavelec been on this contract now?

Roy had one great year and two bad. Pavelec has had more bad years than Roy did and Roy is gone while Pavelec is still around.

 

[cneely]

Fancy stats proving their ignorance once again. As a rookie Bigras was the one stuck babysitting whatever crap Dman we were forced to play. He barely ever got scored on, and even less times was he actually the guilty party, which won't show up in any stat. And it wasn't until the end of the season when he actual started to have some bad games, which was also when he was coming off a concussion as well.

I'm not saying anything about the trade, just your comment about Bigras being one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last year. Perfect example of why fancy stats can be misleading.

But its been said multiple times in this thread that Trouba is "regressing" while he carried around his boat anchor, Stuart. Never mind that it's not even remotely true, Trouba was responsible for some babysitting of his own, and still produced some very good numbers, although not on the score sheet which seems to be the only place anyone looks.

 

[strictlyrandy]

It's really not the same. Keep trying to justify that terrible hire.

I won't even bring up Colorado's poor contracts. I don't need to deflect.

Poor contracts? You mean Iginlas? Ok. You won't bring up anything cus you have nothing.

 

[Gargyn]

It's funny because Roy was only a coach for 3 years.. how long has Pavelec been on this contract now?

Roy had one great year and two bad. Pavelec has had more bad years than Roy did and Roy is gone while Pavelec is still around.

Roy left on his own. Sakic wasn't firing him so count your lucky stars he quit. I'm neutral fan but I don't think it's even close who is the better GM. Cheveldayoff easily.

 

[Freudian]

You do realize his agent has been able to speak to every GM in the NHL all summer.....Do you really think he didn't tell them his client asked for a trade? They all knew, and the price has been the same since May his value didn't go down 2 weeks ago after they released the statement. If you want to argue and say his value will go down if he sits out an entire season I can understand your argument

The only thing they are allowed to discuss is an offer sheet. Not chit chat about if the player has asked for a trade from his current team or anything else. If the agent brought it up with other teams he could be getting into significant problems.

Trouba's rights still belong to Winnipeg and anything beyond what the CBA allows for is tampering, something most GMs don't want to be caught doing.

 

[Paradise*]

Poor contracts? You mean Iginlas? Ok. You won't bring up anything cus you have nothing.

Iginla and Stuart. Beauchemin still has 2 years left 4.5 aav and he's 36. Not the greatest contract.

How about the drafting under Sakic/Roy?

Hiring your buddy was a terrible.idea. Sakic is just lucky Roy decided to leave, because I don't think Sakic had the balls to fire him. Still a poor hire.

 

[Avs44]

Iginla and Stuart.

How about the drafting under Sakic/Roy?

Hiring your buddy was a terrible.idea. Sakic is just lucky Roy decided to leave, because I don't think Sakic had the balls to fire him. Still a poor hire.

What's silly is you dumping Roy entirely on Sakic, when the Avs already were pushing to hire Roy back in 2009. Roy was someone the Avs wanted well before Sakic had the power to make decisions like that. I viewed them as a package deal, not Sakic having the opportunity to autonomously decide.


And what about the Avs' drafting? They've been here three years...should they have turned out 5 full time NHLers already?

 

[Thai jet*]

Good

The people who are saying Trouba isn't going to return what Chevy wants are right.

So are the people who know he's still a pretty damn good dman even if he doesn't get any better.

Jets aren't trading him. No one will give up what he's worth. The Jets aren't going to just do him a solid and take a big loss on a guy they drafted 4 years ago.

It might take a month and a half, but he will be back.

I sure hope you are right. 8 years into a rebuild you cannot keep losing these high picks and expect to contend. There may be unknowns that make this impossible. I hope that is not the case.

 

[JetsHomer]

The only thing they are allowed to discuss is an offer sheet. Not chit chat about if the player has asked for a trade from his current team or anything else. If the agent brought it up with other teams he could be getting into significant problems.

Trouba's rights still belong to Winnipeg and anything beyond what the CBA allows for is tampering, something most GMs don't want to be caught doing.

Trouba's agent could certainly discuss contracts and willingness to sign with other teams though, if he expressed his willingness to sign with a different team, his desire to move from Winnipeg is pretty clear.

 

[Paradise*]

What's silly is you dumping Roy entirely on Sakic, when the Avs already were pushing to hire Roy back in 2009. Roy was someone the Avs wanted well before Sakic had the power to make decisions like that. I viewed them as a package deal, not Sakic having the opportunity to autonomously decide.


And what about the Avs' drafting? They've been here three years...should they have turned out 5 full time NHLers already?

Strawman and deflections seem to be the order of the day.

They've had 4 drafts. After the 1st round they draft poorly IMO (minus Bigras #32).

 

[TheForsbergShow]

Iginla and Stuart. Beauchemin still has 2 years left 4.5 aav and he's 36. Not the greatest contract.

How about the drafting under Sakic/Roy?

Hiring your buddy was a terrible.idea. Sakic is just lucky Roy decided to leave, because I don't think Sakic had the balls to fire him. Still a poor hire.

If our worst contracts are those I think the Avs will survive (both done after this year). Beuch was on of the avs most relied upon defensemen last year and played pretty well, its not like he's signed until he's 40. Getting Soderberg was also very bad, what has he done after being acquired for a 7th rounder and signed for a fair price...

Drafting Rantanen and Jost will def look bad. Even some of their second rounders Meloche and Greer look like busts already after a year.

The avs haven't had this kind of real depth in their prospect system ever , yet you are chiming in on how bad they've drafted? Last I checked Sakic fired their head scout a couple years ago and it's only improved that part of the team since. Just because they don't have one of the best ones like the Jets sure doesn't mean they have been bad.

 

[Street Hawk]

I think most of us believe that's all a smokescreen and that he just wants out of Winnipeg. The whole right side thing is PR.

His main reason for a trade is money.

If he could agree to a Hamilton type deal, he'd sign it and be back with the team IMO. He wouldn't be worried about his production because he would be locked into a 6 year deal worth $34.5 million.

But, doesn't appear the jets are close in terms of the numbers for a long term deal.

So, he knows if he takes a short deal, that despite getting arbitration rights after the deal is up, if he ends up playing the left side, where he isn't comfortable, he likely won't have the numbers to support his next contract demand.

As a Canucks fan, we've always been left side heavy. Best was 4-2 left vs right and at times it was 5-1 left vs right. Some of the lefties were horrible when moved to the right.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

His main reason for a trade is money.

If he could agree to a Hamilton type deal, he'd sign it and be back with the team IMO. He wouldn't be worried about his production because he would be locked into a 6 year deal worth $34.5 million.

But, doesn't appear the jets are close in terms of the numbers for a long term deal.

So, he knows if he takes a short deal, that despite getting arbitration rights after the deal is up, if he ends up playing the left side, where he isn't comfortable, he likely won't have the numbers to support his next contract demand.

As a Canucks fan, we've always been left side heavy. Best was 4-2 left vs right and at times it was 5-1 left vs right. Some of the lefties were horrible when moved to the right.

I don't believe that to be the case. His agent specifically stated that they have not even accepted an offer to LOOK at an offer from the Jets. They don't care what number Winnipeg is willing to write down.

He wants out of Winnipeg. That's 100% what this is about.