Player Discussion Trevor Zegras (Part II)

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At one end of the ice. The team won’t go anywhere in the playoffs the way he plays D unless they put someone on the line to babysit him on D.

He and Milano are #9 and #8 in offensive zone starts at 72.6% and 79% respectively, but his SAT% is behind Getzlaf with a 33.6%. He’s the definition of sheltered right now.

That’s not to say he’s not supremely talented offensively, but that’s the kind of first line that gets you a high draft pick.

Oh yeah if you watch him iso in the defensive zone he has no idea where he's supposed to be. He just puck hounds until he realizes he's out of position and then full on scrambles. He's just so good in the other 2 zones (I think his transition play is very good but he can get caught trying to be cute while breaking in) that his line tends to win the xGF battle.

I also don't really care that much at this point in his career, his offensive skillset is otherworldly and I just want him to keep trying ridiculous shit to learn what works and get his play to an elite level at that end of the ice. Zegras has put in a ton of work and seems to absorb things like a sponge, I think that the defensive game will come in time when he realizes that's what else he needs to figure out to be elite. He does idolize Datsyuk after all.
 
Oh yeah if you watch him iso in the defensive zone he has no idea where he's supposed to be. He just puck hounds until he realizes he's out of position and then full on scrambles. He's just so good in the other 2 zones (I think his transition play is very good but he can get caught trying to be cute while breaking in) that his line tends to win the xGF battle.

I also don't really care that much at this point in his career, his offensive skillset is otherworldly and I just want him to keep trying ridiculous shit to learn what works and get his play to an elite level at that end of the ice. Zegras has put in a ton of work and seems to absorb things like a sponge, I think that the defensive game will come in time when he realizes that's what else he needs to figure out to be elite. He does idolize Datsyuk after all.
Agreed 100%. He’s still young and needs someone to tell him that overstaying your shift is bad, and that he needs to watch some video on the defensive zone, but he’s a sublime talent.

I do think he needs to dial down the cheap shit though. Kudos for sticking up for Milano, but he just gave Tkachuk the green light to cheap shot him onto IR the next time they play, and his frame isn’t built for that kind of thing.
 
At one end of the ice. The team won’t go anywhere in the playoffs the way he plays D unless they put someone on the line to babysit him on D.

He and Milano are #9 and #8 in offensive zone starts at 72.6% and 79% respectively, but his SAT% is behind Getzlaf with a 33.6%. He’s the definition of sheltered right now.

That’s not to say he’s not supremely talented offensively, but that’s the kind of first line that gets you a high draft pick.
1 he's 20 years old, everyone acknowledges the defense has to improve but it's extremely rare for a 20 year old to be a high end offe since player and competent defensively.

2 the zone starts sound like damn good coaching to me, why wouldn't your best offensive forward not be starting on offense as much as possible

3 there should be zero expectation of this team even making the playoffs right now, much less doing any damage. That is a completely unrealistic thing, the team however is ahead of schedule in large part to these young players. I'm really not sure how anyone can expect more from him at this stage of his career, wanting to sign him long term is an entirely different conversation because you're trying to buy value later on
 
1 he's 20 years old, everyone acknowledges the defense has to improve but it's extremely rare for a 20 year old to be a high end offe since player and competent defensively.

2 the zone starts sound like damn good coaching to me, why wouldn't your best offensive forward not be starting on offense as much as possible

3 there should be zero expectation of this team even making the playoffs right now, much less doing any damage. That is a completely unrealistic thing, the team however is ahead of schedule in large part to these young players. I'm really not sure how anyone can expect more from him at this stage of his career, wanting to sign him long term is an entirely different conversation because you're trying to buy value later on
The ONLY thing my post was responding to was
Zegras underlying ES numbers are legit first line center level

And…he’s clearly not (which you pretty much confirmed with your post). Yet. You’re moving the goalposts.
 
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1 he's 20 years old, everyone acknowledges the defense has to improve but it's extremely rare for a 20 year old to be a high end offe since player and competent defensively.

2 the zone starts sound like damn good coaching to me, why wouldn't your best offensive forward not be starting on offense as much as possible

3 there should be zero expectation of this team even making the playoffs right now, much less doing any damage. That is a completely unrealistic thing, the team however is ahead of schedule in large part to these young players. I'm really not sure how anyone can expect more from him at this stage of his career, wanting to sign him long term is an entirely different conversation because you're trying to buy value later on

Let's address this from 3 on down b/c there's logic to it.

3. With 30% of the season under the Ducks' belt, they are 3rd in the Pacific division with 30 points (13-8-4). Anaheim ranks 6th in goals for, 3rd in PP efficiency, tied for 2nd in PP goals, and 7th in PK efficiency. They just went 2-0-1 (5 pts) without Getzlaf against the Kings, VGK, and Flames! And all three games were 1-goal differential, high scoring affairs. That means we're improving since we started the season. How in the world can you deny that isn't thinking of making the playoffs?

We should be expecting more from all of our players because it creates standards. This started last year with the benching of several players or sending them back down to the the AHL, which included Zegras. This year, coach Eakins has been shortening the bench for defensive liability youths like Zegras, Drysdale, Milano, and McTavish. Why? Because the team wants to win and establish a standard that you have to have to be defensively responsible to close out games.

2. I just looked at hockey reference's stats. Zegras has an 81.0% OZ start percentage and a 19.0% DZ start percentage. That is the definition of being sheltered. Part of that reason is because Zegras is weak at the faceoff dot with a 41.8% FO win percentage. A good coach wants to maximize a player's talent and disguise that same player's flaws.

1. Why do you want to have a lower standard for a player who is potentially supposed to be our franchise cornerstone for the future? He's 20 years old offensive dynamo, but hockey is played in all three zones, not one of the three zones. The problem with Zegras is more than competent defense. His offense borders upon recklessness where it gives opposing teams lots of scoring opportunities and because he gets so tunnel vision on proving himself on the ice, he selfishly stays on the ice too long and puts the team into a disadvantage.

Total for the season
Ducks 2021-22
Overall4-Dec
PlayerGamesGoalsAssistsPtsPts/game Plus/Minus
Milano20611170.85 +1
Zegras23613190.83 -8
Rakell1582100.67 -1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Zegras has 19 points, but he also is a -8 on the season. That means his offense isn't really helping the team overall if he's giving away goals. Look at Rakell and Milano, their are generating points, but they also aren't giving away too many goals when they are on the ice.​


Before the MZR Line was created
Ducks2021-22
Before MZR Line before Nov 22
PlayerGamesGoalsAssistsPtsPts/game Plus/Minus
Milano133690.69 -2
Zegras1664100.63 -5
Rakell84040.50 -2
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's everyone is scoring less than the overall and all three have negative ratings, Zegras still is the worst.

After MZR was put together
Ducks2021-22
WithMZR Linesince22-Nov
PlayerGamesGoalsAssistsPtsPts/game Plus/Minus
Milano73581.14 +3
Zegras70991.29 -3
Rakell74260.86 +1
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Once this line was put together, only Zegras has a negative Plus/Minus rating. And Zegras is generating at a very high point rate too! As a line, all three players should have positive +/- rating from their increased point productions, but that isn't the case. The team should expect Zegras to not play carelessly with the puck or staying out longer than need be.​

=================================

Now, let's look at a player who started this season as a 21-year old in C Lundestrom. He isn't an offensive dynamo like, but his defense is far superior than Zegras' defensive game. What is Lundy's plus/minus rating?

PlayerGamesGoalsAssistsPtsPts/game Plus/Minus
Lundestrom2568140.56 +8
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
I'm not expecting Zegras to be at Lundy's defensive level, but I also don't expect Zegras to be be a sieve when he's scoring a 1.29 pts/game with the MZR line, which he is. Zegras' -2 rating against the Flames means that the Ducks could have won that game if we didn't give up goals. It negates the fact that Zegras has 2 assists in the game. The point of the game is to win. You can win by being responsible, but you can lose by being reckless. Addressing that recklessness with Zegras is important because his selfish play costs the team a point or points to establish itself as a winning program, which the Ducks are today.

But if you still think the team is a losing program, then why address the reckless play or set bars for a supposed franchise player to reach or have a coach in the first place if Zegras can do whatever he wants b/c playing responsibly isn't in his program? Hell, why have a team if the sights isn't trying to win games?
 
The ONLY thing my post was responding to was


And…he’s clearly not (which you pretty much confirmed with your post). Yet. You’re moving the goalposts.
I said his underlying ES numbers are 1st line center level. I haven't moved a single goalpost you're the one who brought up the playoff stuff, not me
 
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I said his underlying ES numbers are 1st line center level. I haven't moved a single goalpost you're the one who brought up the playoff stuff, not me
…because his numbers are skewed by those offensive zone starts, and thus not really 1st line center numbers. A legit 1st line center would be fine in the playoffs. I’m not saying that HE will be in the playoffs, I’m saying that because his numbers/play wouldn’t be fine in the playoffs, HE isn’t actually a legit 1st line center. 1st line centers can play SOME defense (and/or score MUCH more than he does). For centers with 15+ games, he’s 2nd in offensive zone starts, and 172nd in +/-, which can absolutely be a misleading statistic, but in his case he is absolutely intimately associated with those minuses. His SAT % is a bit skewed in his favor because the other team doesn’t need a whole lot of shots to actually score against him because he’s puck chasing, out of position, responsible for a turnover causing a breakaway, dogging it getting back, or all of the above.
 
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Z has exceeded my early expectations with his production. He is pacing for over 60 points , I figured any rookie who is a potential top line/top 6 guy would pace for 40-50 in their first season.

Z needs to work on his FO’s , win more obviously , it will lead to more points and also Eakins will trust him more to take defensive FOs or go out there when they have the lead in the final min of a period. But he also needs to work on his own zone coverage. He has made some good defensive plays that led to a goal or two.

I don’t want this kid to worry about defending but just be responsible if a play goes the other way. He’s only 20 yo and think he will develop better into covering his own zone, it just goes with experience.
 
Z has exceeded my early expectations with his production. He is pacing for over 60 points , I figured any rookie who is a potential top line/top 6 guy would pace for 40-50 in their first season.

Z needs to work on his FO’s , win more obviously , it will lead to more points and also Eakins will trust him more to take defensive FOs or go out there when they have the lead in the final min of a period. But he also needs to work on his own zone coverage. He has made some good defensive plays that led to a goal or two.

I don’t want this kid to worry about defending but just be responsible if a play goes the other way. He’s only 20 yo and think he will develop better into covering his own zone, it just goes with experience.
I get what you're saying but I think he actually has it in him to be a very good 2-way center. He's a natural puck hound and he's got some Datsyukian stick skills for stealing the puck. Plus he's clearly got a great feel for the game. It'd be criminal if they didn't try to dial up this aspect of Z's game. I don't think it's the likeliest outcome but it seems at least possible. He could also follow the Getzlaf path of slowly getting better defensively over the course of a decade or so. But he doesn't seem to do anything gradually. He probably eats his bowl of cereal in one gulp while doing something else at the same time.
 
We all miss on players who we think were gonna be very good. I was very high on Steel at one point.
I've always been on high on Milano who i thought was worth keeping in the offseason as a top9 forward because he really only didn't play well because of concussions.
In his first 9 games with the Ducks when they got him he put in more effort than Ritchie.
I think Milano becomes a 40 to 45 point guy. Not everyone in a lineup is gonna be a star, you are gonna need 2 to 3 Milano's to provide that extra scoring.
 
ducks fans, jackets fan here coming in peace!

this is helllla random. but let’s say hypothetically Patrik Laine is re-signed (he’s a pending RFA) after this season. would you guys be willing to part with TZ in order to get Patty?

i’m not suggesting these teams should do this trade. seriously just curious about how much y’all value TZ and your thoughts on his potential compared to what Laine has shown so far.
 
ducks fans, jackets fan here coming in peace!

this is helllla random. but let’s say hypothetically Patrik Laine is re-signed (he’s a pending RFA) after this season. would you guys be willing to part with TZ in order to get Patty?

i’m not suggesting these teams should do this trade. seriously just curious about how much y’all value TZ and your thoughts on his potential compared to what Laine has shown so far.
We value Zegras far more than Laine.
 
ducks fans, jackets fan here coming in peace!

this is helllla random. but let’s say hypothetically Patrik Laine is re-signed (he’s a pending RFA) after this season. would you guys be willing to part with TZ in order to get Patty?

i’m not suggesting these teams should do this trade. seriously just curious about how much y’all value TZ and your thoughts on his potential compared to what Laine has shown so far.
Very few players in the league I would move zegras for…. Like maybe a handful. Laine isn’t 1 if then.

Zegras is a center, he’s really marketable based on his skill set/personality, and the fact that he is a potential American super star.

I know people get mad, but zegras is this next generations Patrick Kane. He’s still got work to do but offensively he’s the most dynamic offensive player I’ve seen in Anaheim since kariya.

I like laine and would be interested in adding him to the ducks, but I wouldn’t move zegras or drysdale for him which means it would never happen

it’s really criminal zegras isn’t a ppg player , you can go up further in the thread where @bsu posts a bunch of videos, and that’s 1 game worth of highlights scoring chances
 
ducks fans, jackets fan here coming in peace!

this is helllla random. but let’s say hypothetically Patrik Laine is re-signed (he’s a pending RFA) after this season. would you guys be willing to part with TZ in order to get Patty?

i’m not suggesting these teams should do this trade. seriously just curious about how much y’all value TZ and your thoughts on his potential compared to what Laine has shown so far.

Honestly, you could offer the whole roster + top-20 prospects of Columbus and I'd still say no to a deal around Zegras. Columbus has absolutely no pieces whatsoever to lure any elite player their way.
 
ducks fans, jackets fan here coming in peace!

this is helllla random. but let’s say hypothetically Patrik Laine is re-signed (he’s a pending RFA) after this season. would you guys be willing to part with TZ in order to get Patty?

i’m not suggesting these teams should do this trade. seriously just curious about how much y’all value TZ and your thoughts on his potential compared to what Laine has shown so far.

The Ducks need a future #1 center way more then Laine.

It isn’t even a value thing.
 
ducks fans, jackets fan here coming in peace!

this is helllla random. but let’s say hypothetically Patrik Laine is re-signed (he’s a pending RFA) after this season. would you guys be willing to part with TZ in order to get Patty?

i’m not suggesting these teams should do this trade. seriously just curious about how much y’all value TZ and your thoughts on his potential compared to what Laine has shown so far.
Nope. Our org values centers and cost controlled players a lot. Z is both of them, Laine is none of them.

We would be interested to get Laine tho. But no way we part with any of Z, Dry and even McTavish.
 
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