Trevor Timmins Part II

[Sorinth]

Timmins is extremely overrated around here, simply because it's a national sport to overrate Habs prospect, especially if they aren't francophone.

It is also true that Timmins has had the misfortune of working for a series of highly incompetent GMs. This means there isn't a solid infrastructure around him to help in the selection process, and there isn't a great prospect farming system.

But let's be clear: the problem is mostly drafting. Nothing can prevent a greatly talented, hard-working adult hockey player from making it, and no amount of polishing can turn a turd into a diamond.

That would matter if the only players who make the NHL or have an impact in the NHL are ultra talented/driven players but it's not. There are plenty of players who took a lot of time to work things out, who needed either a kick in the pants or someone to stick by them through the tough times in order to make it.

 

[Belial]

Because we've drafted a Hart/Vezina winning goalie, a Norris winning defenceman, another top-pairing defenceman, one of the leagues top snipers in addition to Galchenyuk and Gallagher. Plus numerous lesser assets which is more then enough to have a great core if we were able to add some good UFAs/trades and not waste the guys we did draft. You just want to ignore that because it doesn't suit your argument.

How long will people harp on two bad drafts 08 & 09? I mean Timmins was amazing, had two bad years and has been great since 2010 so I really don't see the problem.

How long are you going to bring up a draft that happened a decade ago?

David Desharnais once had a 60 points season! Should we keep him on the first line?

2010 and 2011 were not good drafts! Are you kidding me? Thank god for Gallagher who compensate for the brutal Tinordi pick. Beaulieu is a third pair guy!

 

[DAChampion]

How long are you going to bring up a draft that happened a decade ago?

David Desharnais once had a 60 points season! Should we keep him on the first line?

2010 and 2011 were not good drafts! Are you kidding me? Thank god for Gallagher who compensate for the brutal Tinordi pick. Beaulieu is a third pair guy!

From 2008-2011, Timmins performed poorly with a weak hand.

2012-2016 are too early to evaluate still.

 

[scrubadam]

So that's how you evaluate prospects? How often their name comes up in trade rumors

Thats not how I evaluate prospects, but in the development vs drafting debate I think its an interesting point. If development is killing the habs draft picks, then how come the players who haven't gone through it yet aren't highly sought after?

If TT was the best and getting gems everywhere a guy we drafter 2 drafts ago or last draft should be really sought after.

Because we've drafted a Hart/Vezina winning goalie, a Norris winning defenceman, another top-pairing defenceman, one of the leagues top snipers in addition to Galchenyuk and Gallagher. Plus numerous lesser assets which is more then enough to have a great core if we were able to add some good UFAs/trades and not waste the guys we did draft. You just want to ignore that because it doesn't suit your argument.

How long will people harp on two bad drafts 08 & 09? I mean Timmins was amazing, had two bad years and has been great since 2010 so I really don't see the problem.

I don't think anyone is ignoring TT's work in 07 and before. Its the opposite; everyone points to 2007 drafts and before to pump TT.

Simple excercise, pretend TT was fired after 07. Now compare the new guy hired from 08 till today to what TT accomplished. Who is better the new guy or TT? Would you say this new guy is one of the "best" especially in comparison to what we were used to getting with TT?

And its not only 08 & 09. Its been a decade. We have one 3 OVA that is an impact player (and I may have prefered Forsberg) a 5th rounder in Gallagher. Then you have Beau who is a 3rd pair guy 6 years after he was drafted. Might not even amount to anything more than a Nesterov/Barberio. We also got Lek who I really like but lots of players have 15 goal campaigns and disapear. I remember we were all talking about Carr and Ghetto and their pace and how they would get 15-20 goals each this year.

I think we can judge 12 and 13 and see that we got Lek out of it and 3 OVA pick which is a gimmie. Have always like Mac but he is looking to me like a 4th liner maybe 3rd liner.

Add all the missed players like Gaudreau (dietz) Shaw(dieder) Krieder(Leblanc) Kuznetzov (Tinordi) Klefboom (Beaulieu) etc... and TT has not been the "best" for almost 10 years. From a habs perspetive he has been poor, hasn't gotten help for offense or down the middle (except with his 3OVA) Maybe compared to the league he is average but I care more about the habs then his comparison around the league.

 

[Whitesnake]

Incredibly enough, Timmins is excused 'cause he had nothing to work with from 08-11 but then....he's elevated to god for his 2007 draft without people mentioning that he had 3 picks in the first 43 picks. And Price being a #5.

Again, I have no problems saying Timmins was incredible in those picks. But which job exist when you are excused when it's not working out...and praised when it is? And if that really how it works...how come some lose their job? 'Cause they have no great picks to be praised for? Geez...are every single great NHL player not drafted? Are all of them #1 overall pick? Shouldn't it be what differentiate a great scout to an average one? Being able to find gems?

I mean, again, while we will agree he was awesome for having had such a great 2007 draft....do people forget that on the final CSS rankings, they had McDonagh at 11th and Pacioretty at 16th? And that finally the real awesome scouting job was done on Subban who was seen 102nd? Yeah, I know, CSS is not the end of the world, we have plenty of examples of that....still....if they had McDo and Patch at 11th and 16th, chances are other teams had those guys near where we picked them.....does that make Timmins that much better? Or do you really have to see how great he is mostly based on PK's pick since not only CSS had him far, but there was so many comments about how average that pick was because of his defensive play?

Yeah, I know, end result is that he was 3 on 3 there. Making it one of the best draft ever. Again, if it works there, it works the other way too. You cannot shout how incredibly he was for finding Halak, Grabovski, Gallagher and others and excused him for being bad in those kinds of rounds on other years. Yep, you cannot be perfect. You cannot be 100% all the time. And all that. But there's a limit. Just like there's a limit to solely put that on development. As a poster said, rarely will you have a top gun player and just ****ed him up because Lefebvre coached him. Or have a dud and make him an incredible player because Cooper coached him. There will be exceptions. But it's just that...exceptions. It mostly starts and ends with how great you are at predicting a player's ceiling. You can' t win them all. But you need to be better with what we've been doing lately.

 

[jfm133]

Add all the missed players like Gaudreau (dietz) Shaw(dieder) Krieder(Leblanc) Kuznetzov (Tinordi) Klefboom (Beaulieu) etc... and TT has not been the "best" for almost 10 years. From a habs perspetive he has been poor, hasn't gotten help for offense or down the middle (except with his 3OVA) Maybe compared to the league he is average but I care more about the habs then his comparison around the league.

Cherry picking at its best. Ridiculous.

 

[montreal]

Yes, Timmins had a great draft in 2007, exactly one decade ago.

so what do you think happened? He forgot how to find talent?

Still think it's unfair to criticize Timmins for the current state of our prospect pool. He's not given enough ammunition in the top 2 rounds more often than not.

I do have a minor gripe with how he tends to go completely off board in the middle rounds with "potential" role players... The Pezzettas, Kobersteins and Crisps of this world...

agreed, not sure how people don't get this.

Which is exactly why coaches matter. If you are in a positive development environment it will reinforce things like dedication/hard work. A player/prospect is going to put in that extra work/sacrifice and become better. On a flip side a bad environment with a coach you hate and your work ethic is likely going to go down and for a lot of players that's a death sentence. There will always be some who don't let any external factors effect their work ethic, but that's rare, virtually everyone else will be impacted by the environment.

We see it all the time in the NHL were a team tunes out the coach and players stop working hard enough. If that's happening with a prospect then they aren't improving and will fail. Just look at your own life, if you like your team/boss you are likely more productive and do a better job. If you hat your boss your dedication is going to drop significantly. Expecting any different just because they play hockey is foolish.

agreed, well said.

If its about development, then how come habs latest prospects have nearly no value? None of our prospects seem to be good enough to obtain good players in trades.

Guys from the last 3 drafts have not spend much time if any at all with Sly so shouldn't they be highly coveted? I know Julsen wasn't a top 10 pick but how come his name is never mentioned when Sakic is looking for a young top 4 D?

how do you know what other teams value Hab draft picks as? Sergachev, Juulsen, Lehkonen, Hudon, McCarron, Lindgren, Scherbak, Jake Evans, etc.. All are interesting prospects, who's to say what other teams think of them or what value they place on them. We know that management has not wanted to part with top prospects in the past but that doesn't mean other teams weren't interested imo.

Have you seen much of Juulsen? What do you think of him?

 

[Sorinth]

Thats not how I evaluate prospects, but in the development vs drafting debate I think its an interesting point. If development is killing the habs draft picks, then how come the players who haven't gone through it yet aren't highly sought after?

If TT was the best and getting gems everywhere a guy we drafter 2 drafts ago or last draft should be really sought after.

And how do you know they aren't sought after?

I don't think anyone is ignoring TT's work in 07 and before. Its the opposite; everyone points to 2007 drafts and before to pump TT.

Simple excercise, pretend TT was fired after 07. Now compare the new guy hired from 08 till today to what TT accomplished. Who is better the new guy or TT? Would you say this new guy is one of the "best" especially in comparison to what we were used to getting with TT?

People include 2003-2007 because it means you get his whole body of work. Your hypothetical is just dumb, it's like saying let's look at a player and ignore all the good games they played, focus on the slumps and then say see he's not doing a good job, look at all these games where he played bad.

And its not only 08 & 09. Its been a decade. We have one 3 OVA that is an impact player (and I may have prefered Forsberg) a 5th rounder in Gallagher. Then you have Beau who is a 3rd pair guy 6 years after he was drafted. Might not even amount to anything more than a Nesterov/Barberio. We also got Lek who I really like but lots of players have 15 goal campaigns and disapear. I remember we were all talking about Carr and Ghetto and their pace and how they would get 15-20 goals each this year.

2010 - 5 picks total only one of which was in the top 90. We came out of that draft with a top-6 forward. That's a great draft.

2011 - 7 picks total only one of which was in the top 90. We came out of that draft with a #4 defenceman. That's an ok draft.

2012 - 7 picks total, one top-5, and 3 other top-90 picks. We came out with arguably the best player in the draft, and one guy who is still a potential top-6 forward. Not a great draft.

2013 - 8 picks total, 6 of them were top-90. Still early but seemingly have 4 NHLers, some with top-6 upside, others without. Looks like a very good draft.

So yeah it certainly looks like your problem is 08-09.

I think we can judge 12 and 13 and see that we got Lek out of it and 3 OVA pick which is a gimmie. Have always like Mac but he is looking to me like a 4th liner maybe 3rd liner.

Add all the missed players like Gaudreau (dietz) Shaw(dieder) Krieder(Leblanc) Kuznetzov (Tinordi) Klefboom (Beaulieu) etc... and TT has not been the "best" for almost 10 years. From a habs perspetive he has been poor, hasn't gotten help for offense or down the middle (except with his 3OVA) Maybe compared to the league he is average but I care more about the habs then his comparison around the league.

You can judge any draft. The day after the draft the media hands out it's winners and losers of the draft. It's just going to be very inaccurate.

And I know you don't care about how Timmins relative to his peers, because you're not living in a fact based world. If you watched baseball you'd get upset at the .300 hitter because of all the times he gets out. I'm half surprised you don't crap all over Pacioretty because so few of the shots he takes are goals.

 

[Sorinth]

Incredibly enough, Timmins is excused 'cause he had nothing to work with from 08-11 but then....he's elevated to god for his 2007 draft without people mentioning that he had 3 picks in the first 43 picks. And Price being a #5.

I'm pretty sure having two 1st round picks is brought up, and it's used as an example of what we should be doing more of. We should be out there acquiring picks so that we can utilize Timmins more.

The amount and quality of picks should change your expectations for the draft. It's why 2012 will likely go down as a worse draft then say 2010 or 2013 despite the best player being from the 2012 draft.

If you give a guy picks, 17, 22, 97, 108, 113, 117, 138, 147, 168, 198, 207 what are your expectations in terms of NHL players both number and quality of player?

 

[Ezpz]

dont think timmins is a problem but our overall amateur scouts suck.

 

[Jeffrey]

I still don't understand what they saw in Connor Crisp...
The only explanation possible is that when they scouted him they mixed his report with another Connor from that team.

 

[Hannibal]

Every one here knows my opinion about that clown.

He's the major reason that we have a so bad and thin prospect pool. He drafted so many busts and many of them were first rounders. In today's NHL, you can't afford that.

Should have been fired a long time ago.

 

[DAChampion]

Every one here knows my opinion about that clown.

He's the major reason that we have a so bad and thin prospect pool. He drafted so many busts and many of them were first rounders. In today's NHL, you can't afford that.

Should have been fired a long time ago.

You guys don't understand that every team has busts.

 

[DesmondDekker]

I know our first/second round picks having been underwhelming for a few years now, but personally, landing legit talent in the later rounds has been just as big a problem. For some reason, Timmins always goes for some obscure prospects with little to no upside from the 4th round on. Outside of Gallagher (and to some extent Hudon), I don't recall the last time it paid off, even at the AHL level where we're also in need of talent. It would be nice for once to swing for the fences, say with guys that play in your own backyard, instead of hoping a fringe high school player makes it to the next level..!

 

[Hannibal]

You guys don't understand that every team has busts.

As many first round bust as Timmins?

The guy can't draft since 10 years.

 

[DAChampion]

Our biggest rivals right now are the Ottawa Senators. Here are their first round draft picks since 2003, let me know if you'd take their record over Timmins:

2003 29 Patrick Eaves Right Wing
2004 23 Andrej Meszaros Defence
2005 9 Brian Lee Defence
2006 28 Nick Foligno Left Wing
2007 29 Jim O'Brien Centre
2008 15 Erik Karlsson Defence
2009 9 Jared Cowen Defence
2011 6 Mika Zibanejad Centre
2011 21 (from Nashville) Stefan Noesen Right Wing
2011 24 (from Detroit) Matthew Puempel Left Wing
2012 15 Cody Ceci Defence
2013 17 Curtis Lazar Centre/Right Wing
2015 18 Thomas Chabot Defence Canada
2015 21 (from NYI via BUF) Colin White Centre
2016 11 (from NJ) Logan Brown Centre

 

[Habs]

From 2008-2011, Timmins performed poorly with a weak hand.

2012-2016 are too early to evaluate still.

Judging by the WJC last year, his draft picks are not doing well.

 

[DAChampion]

As many first round bust as Timmins?

The guy can't draft since 10 years.

Look around the league. Most 1st rounders don't become desirable players.

 

[Jeffrey]

Our biggest rivals right now are the Ottawa Senators. Here are their first round draft picks since 2003, let me know if you'd take their record over Timmins:

2003 29 Patrick Eaves Right Wing
2004 23 Andrej Meszaros Defence
2005 9 Brian Lee Defence
2006 28 Nick Foligno Left Wing
2007 29 Jim O'Brien Centre
2008 15 Erik Karlsson Defence
2009 9 Jared Cowen Defence
2011 6 Mika Zibanejad Centre
2011 21 (from Nashville) Stefan Noesen Right Wing
2011 24 (from Detroit) Matthew Puempel Left Wing
2012 15 Cody Ceci Defence
2013 17 Curtis Lazar Centre/Right Wing
2015 18 Thomas Chabot Defence Canada
2015 21 (from NYI via BUF) Colin White Centre
2016 11 (from NJ) Logan Brown Centre

From 2008 to 2016 they have a good track record although the Cowen pick was really bad.

 

[Hannibal]

Look around the league. Most 1st rounders don't become desirable players.

Timmins first round pick are worst than desirable player. They are bust. Majir bust.

 

[FireBurningBin]

I think the better way to evaluate our drafting, assuming you hate lefebvre, is to look at draft+1 years.

Of t90 picks Galchenyuk, Sergachev, Lernout, Beaulieu, Bozon have looked good. Scherbak, Juulsen, Thrower, Collberg, Bitten, Fucale did not show obvious progress - regardless of circumstance in Everett or what have you. Other players switched leagues making evaluation difficult.

It does not seem evident to me that a lot of these prospects were surefire talents going into the AHL. I don't think our development has been good, but it hardly excuses Timmins' recent shortcomings.

 

[DAChampion]

I think the better way to evaluate our drafting, assuming you hate lefebvre, is to look at draft+1 years.

Of t90 picks Galchenyuk, Sergachev, Lernout, Beaulieu, Bozon have looked good. Scherbak, Juulsen, Thrower, Collberg, Bitten, Fucale did not show obvious progress - regardless of circumstance in Everett or what have you. Other players switched leagues making evaluation difficult.

It does not seem evident to me that a lot of these prospects were surefire talents going into the AHL. I don't think our development has been good, but it hardly excuses Timmins' recent shortcomings.

Standard mistake of not including a leaguewide normalization value.

Are you assuming that 60% of players should show great draft+1 years? 80%? Based on what?

 

[Habs Halifax]

As many first round bust as Timmins?

The guy can't draft since 10 years.

How many busts are there in the last 10 years? I count 2 . Tinordi and Leblanc. Habs have actually done very well when drafting 12th or lower! I guess your really upset with all those playoff years and drafting 15th or higher in the 1st round the following year? Heck, 4 of the 10 picks were 22nd or higher!

2016: Sergachev (9th)
2015: Juulsen (26th)
2014: Scherbak (26th)
2013: McCarron (25th)
2012: Galchenyuk (3rd)
2011: Beaulieu (17th)
2010: Tinordi (22nd)
2009: Leblanc (18th)
2008: * No 1st round pick
2007: McDonagh (12th)

Take our best picks in those 10 years... Galchenyuk, McDonagh, Beaulieu, and the unproven Serchachev, Juulsen, McCarron, & Scherback and compare this with all other 29 teams. What will you find? The teams that have drafted better in the 1st round have drafted in the top 10 more often than not!

Get real with your hate!

 

[FireBurningBin]

Standard mistake of not including a leaguewide normalization value.

Are you assuming that 60% of players should show great draft+1 years? 80%? Based on what?

No, but I assume it's closer to what we've seen here, which would make Timmins' drafting average over that span. What I've seen looking at other teams seems to suggest so too.

 

[Justin11]

Timmins can't do miracles drafting 20-30, year after year.

The last 3 top 10 picks have been:

- Sergachev ( not in the NHL yet, but seems to be a good pick)
- Galchenyuk (Already scored 30 goals)
- Price (Elite goaltender)

Not too shabby. Can someone else do a better job? maybe. But are we going to judge him on the picks from 20 to 30?