BPA is obviously subjective but I think there are still criteria teams set which puts a bias on what BPA means. For example, when Houle was GM a common problem with players we selected was they could not skate well and so we had many bust for that reason. Though many were quite talented, or could at least produce. At the same time, they tended to be big guys. So there must have been a philosophy that you draft big guys and hope skating will come.
There have been times we have selected guys and they were clearly touted as shut down guys, like a Tinordi, big, mean shut down guy we have needed for years.. blah blah. Or great two way player with heart, captain material...blah blah.
For BPA I think we need criteria to bias it to skating and pure talent. To me these are top criteria. Then you can have everything else, including a bit of size ( I know small guys can do well in the NHL right now, but would help right now if we weren't so small at forward ).
Bottom line to me is shoot for skaters that have some chance at being top 6 forwards or top 4 D with every pick. Picking a guy because he could be a great two way third liner etc is a waste of a pick.
He's average at best, all the scouts have a few homeruns like TT, but he lags far behind in other rounds and areas. He has a vision of small players, because he is a smurf himself.
Isn't criticizing Trevor Timmins a little like criticizing a blackjack player's choices after the hand is over?
Drafting is mostly a crap shoot & we all have the ability to look in hindsight.
It's not as crap shoot as believed.Isn't criticizing Trevor Timmins a little like criticizing a blackjack player's choices after the hand is over?
Drafting is mostly a crap shoot & we all have the ability to look in hindsight.
I think you are mistaking normal development curve and exceeding expectations.
So in turn why give him credit for his good picks? Its a crap shoot right ? So if you cant criticize him for the Tinordis and Leblancs the he shouldnt get praised for the Subbans and Gallaghers either.
With drafting you have to use hindsight. Its a hard job to predict how 18 year olda are going to be in 5 or 10 years. But thats there job. The best scout should be getting the best players in the draft. If they keep missing the best players for lessers players than its not fair to call thar scout the best. No scout will be perfect and they will all have misses but when do the misses become more than the hits ? And how many drafts can go by with constant misses.
Leblanc, Tinordi, Hudon, Dietz, Mygren, Ghetto, Thrower, Bozon, MCC, DLR, Reway, Scherback
Are all good picks talent wise.
The problem is not in the drafting of those kids, but how they never were developped.
A player will not magically acquire NHL skills while spending all his life in the AHL.
Give them time to develop.
Crisp and Collberg were two of the really bad picks i can agree with.
Having 5 2nd round picks in 8 years, amd completely fanning on 4 of them is what is actually killing us.
I could had bolded everyone of them... We don't have the same definition of talent, that's for sure. They have few skills, but not exactly something that translate well at NHL level.
Leblanc, Tinordi, Hudon, Dietz, Mygren, Ghetto, Thrower, Bozon, MCC, DLR, Reway, Scherback
Are all good picks talent wise.
The problem is not in the drafting of those kids, but how they never were developped.
A player will not magically acquire NHL skills while spending all his life in the AHL.
Give them time to develop.
Crisp and Collberg were two of the really bad picks i can agree with.
Having 5 2nd round picks in 8 years, amd completely fanning on 4 of them is what is actually killing us.
The best way to judge a chief scout is by the quality of his draft lists every year. We don't have access to that, but Timmins survived three GM changes. André Savard hired him, then Gainey kept him, same for Gauthier and Bergevin. These guys had access to Timmins's draft lists for every year since he is with the Habs. So they can judge him not only who the team picked, but by the overall quality of his work.
You will never know that. Nobody ever will. And yet, it always goes about who we want to defend. While I hate Lefebvre and Co, he wasn't there for the last 15 years. And I can name you tons of different picks that we could "pretend" were great picks but were not develop properly. Urquhart was frail and hated the tough game...but was skilled. Locke was tiny but an awesome scorer. Different times for him? Woudl he have made it the way Gaudreau made it? We will never know...probably not because of his overall lack of speed yet....tons of players improved their speed why couldn't he? Development problem? 1 guy you can most definately say was probably a good pick but was indeed an injury casuality was Latendresse. 'Cause no matter how you want to picture Thrower, Reway and Bozon and put it SOLELY on injuries, is a brillant cop out. There are so many great junior players that never made it and it's NOT solely because of development. It's because of tons of different reasons. From their ceiling being stopped at that level just because. Because of them not willing to put the extra effort etc. So what do we all do for every team? We blame the scouts. Name of the game. And it's our prerogative as people who don't know the inside of a team. Watch the end result, comment on it. The "development" part only happens when we draft a kid, he doesn't show a whole lot with us, then goes elsewhere and explodes. Might not even be a development problem. Might be the kid who just decided to move in the right direction etc.....but for us, fans, that's the only way we could try to figure out whose "fault" it was.
And I have NO IDEA how could say that Collberg was a bad pick compared to the others you mentioned. ON the contrary, Collberg was a fine pick. Probably the ONLY pick we all, as a board, agreed on. Not sure if it ever happened. Does that mean a lot that we all agreed on it? Maybe not. But it was not coming otu of nowhere. Contrary to the Crisp pick. Or the most recent Pezzetta pick. Or those infamous "hidden" gems like Avtsin, Koberstein, Valentenko and maybe Vejdemo, all "hidden gems" that most likely were hidden for a good reason.
You talk about how greatly skilled Bozon was.....and yet while the guy ended up PPG in his draft year in the WHL which is an awesome feature for a draftee, he was picked 64th. If he was so greatly skilled and made for the NHL, a scorer like that would have gone 1st round no doubt.That's what Gaunce went in.
This is completely wrong. The best scout won't consistently get the best players, he'll simply increase your odds of getting more/better players. we know the odds of a draft picking turning into a good player, so we can very easily judge Timmins with respect to the average.
For example, the chance of getting a top-6 forward/top-4 defenceman with a 2nd round pick is 10%. Up to 2012 Timmins is 2/9, if Lehkonen pans out as a top-6 guy he'll be 3/12. So here Timmins is more then twice as good as the league average. Maybe that doesn't make him the best but certainly he's up there.
EDIT: And if we can't call a scout the best because they miss out on the best players a lot, then no scout can be considered the best because they all fail that test.
I acknowledge that no scout will be perfect in my post. But at some point a scout needs more hits than misses. If Timmins was truely one of the best he would consistently be getting some of the top players. He did it up until 2007. Since then he has passed by many players. The list is very long on players taken around when habs had picks and Timmins chose lesser players who busted.
So yes no scout is perfect and they will all have misses. The question is how long do you live with those misses? The draft today is going to effect the team in 4 or 5 years from now. 08-11 habs are paying the price now. Krider/Kuznetzov/Klefboom were 3 players TT missed on in 3 drafts in a row where he took lesser players that busted. Yes its hindsight but imagine this team had 2 of those guys instead of Leblanc/Tinordi/Beau. Will we look back at 12/13/14/ drafts and talk about players that habs missed on?
And Timmins is supposed to increase the odds of getting good players in the draft and IMHO he has not been doing that since 07. We will see what the 13 and on drafts bring.
Leblanc, Tinordi, Hudon, Dietz, Mygren, Ghetto, Thrower, Bozon, MCC, DLR, Reway, Scherback
Are all good picks talent wise.
The problem is not in the drafting of those kids, but how they never were developped.
A player will not magically acquire NHL skills while spending all his life in the AHL.
Give them time to develop.
Crisp and Collberg were two of the really bad picks i can agree with.
Having 5 2nd round picks in 8 years, amd completely fanning on 4 of them is what is actually killing us.
I disagree, most talent will make the NHL without much AHL time. If a player is spending a lot of time in the AHL odds are they are a fringe talent. NHL talents will play maybe a year in the AHL, some none before making the jump.
Its a young mans game. Teams need players who can step in. If you are not drafting those players then your team is going to have a hard time managing the cap and competiting. A guy like Gallagher barely spent any time in the AHL. Marner and Nyldnder didn't do 3 years in the AHL. Every draft there are a couple of players who can make the jump within 2 years of being drafted. Its the job of the scout to draft those players. If a scout keeps missing those players than you have to evaluate your scouting.
really ??
what's the hit/miss ratio for good scouts ??? 60%? ? 70% ? 80% maybe ?
...Marner and Nylander were top picks... if a guy you picked in the top 10 spends more than one season in the minors, there's something wrong with him. Timmins has been hurt by our **** staff in the AHL and lack of quality picks. You can count on one hand the players that were doomed to busy on one hand since 2003.
I acknowledge that no scout will be perfect in my post. But at some point a scout needs more hits than misses. If Timmins was truely one of the best he would consistently be getting some of the top players. He did it up until 2007. Since then he has passed by many players. The list is very long on players taken around when habs had picks and Timmins chose lesser players who busted.
So yes no scout is perfect and they will all have misses. The question is how long do you live with those misses? The draft today is going to effect the team in 4 or 5 years from now. 08-11 habs are paying the price now. Krider/Kuznetzov/Klefboom were 3 players TT missed on in 3 drafts in a row where he took lesser players that busted. Yes its hindsight but imagine this team had 2 of those guys instead of Leblanc/Tinordi/Beau. Will we look back at 12/13/14/ drafts and talk about players that habs missed on?
And Timmins is supposed to increase the odds of getting good players in the draft and IMHO he has not been doing that since 07. We will see what the 13 and on drafts bring.
I'll repeat the odds, a 2nd round pick is 10%, so you actually think the top scouts should be more than 5 times better then the average average?
I can come up with a similar list of misses for every single team. Yet someone still has to be the best.
Whatever you are willing to live with. Maybe some are happy with a 1 player every 10 picks, maybe some 5 players every 10 picks.
Just keep in mind that a bad draft today hurts the team in 3/4/5 years. Taking Leblanc and Tinordi instead of Kuznetzov and Krider has been hurting the team the past 3 years and those drafts took place 7/8 years ago just as an example. Habs in 2011 took JOSH DIEDER at 97. 7 picks later Johnny Hockey was taken. Yup tons of scouts missed on him. But would you rather have the guy who misses or hits the homerun ? LOL habs took Darren Dietz at 138 only last summer to throw 2 2nds for the guy taken one pick later Andrew Shaw.
So how long as an organization and a fan are you willing to live with constant misses? Is it important as an org/fan that the team have young players able to step in and play on ELC's very quickly? Or do you prefer trading and signing vets with over paid contracts? Each person/org has a different threshold. MB hasn't reached his with TT and some fans haven't either. OTOH some fans have and think that TT's status as one of the best is overrated.
missed the point completely...
it's very simple : you say more hits than miss... so, what are the ratios for the good scouts out there ???? do you even know ????
Its not an inquisition here buddy.
The only thing I know is that Timmins since after 07 has missed a ton of great players that would have helped the habs tremendously. If as a fan you are satisfied with that then fine so be it I am not.
So I don't care about ratio's or % I only care about the players on the habs team. If TT isn't good enough to draft those guys then thats on him. If you are happy with his drafts then thats your opinion and you are free to have it.