Husko
Registered User
Speaking of free agents, yannick ngakoue is coming off a down year but is someone that the Bills have been interested in before. I wonder if he could be a fit for a Leonard Flloyd reclamation project type deal.
yeah was looking at FA DE and he jumped out, think theres probably enough left in the tank to help out in the rotation.Speaking of free agents, yannick ngakoue is coming off a down year but is someone that the Bills have been interested in before. I wonder if he could be a fit for a Leonard Flloyd reclamation project type deal.
I wanted him last year. He's purely a pass rusher, but that speed is something we lack.Speaking of free agents, yannick ngakoue is coming off a down year but is someone that the Bills have been interested in before. I wonder if he could be a fit for a Leonard Flloyd reclamation project type deal.
See aforementioned discussion at the top of this thread.I guess thinking about it in terms of what we've replaced in terms of snaps:
Obviously it won't be a 1-to-1 anywhere, but Harty's snaps not being replaced (in addition to asking Coleman and Samuel to take on that many snaps being a big ask, even if Shakir's role grows) certainly seems like a hole at WR4/5. There's certainly guys that could compete for it, but a more real veteran option would be nice, especially someone with speed. Looking at free agency:
- Davis -> Coleman
- Diggs -> Samuel
- Shakir -> Shakir
- Sherfield -> Hollins
- Harty -> ????? (155 snaps)
- Renfrow (slot only)
- Robinson (slow)
- OBJ (probably uninterested in being a 4)
- Gallup (I like it if he's cheap)
- Boyd (slot only)
- MVS (one trick pony, but does that trick well)
- DJ Chark (I like it if he's cheap)
- Hardman
- Goodwin
They have about $3 million in space now and another $10 million in space as of July 1. I'm not expecting a Deebo type trade, but two vets totalling up to 10 (including incentives) against the cap, one at WR and one at DE, that I can totally see. Not splashes, but moves to round out the roster. Last year they were in worse cap shape post draft than this year, and they still signed Murray, Ford, Shell, and Flloyd. I'm sure they'll make a couple analogous moves this year.See aforementioned discussion at the top of this thread.
You have to factor in Knox & Kincaid to those snap counts.
They aren't going to be carrying ten WRs on the roster either. It might only be five. I don't see them giving up on Shorter so soon, they seem to like both Hamler/Isabella, and Beane even went as far to mention Shavers in his latest PC.
I also don't see any splashes happening - either via trade or FA. Beane has even said as much. They simply don't have the cap space.
Player | Projected Cap | K Replaced | Added Cap |
Keon Coleman | $1,812,000 | $987,000 | $827,000 |
Cole Bishop | $1,191,000 | $985,000 | $206,000 |
Dewayne Carter | $1,021,000 | $985,000 | $36,000 |
Asking you to explain where you got "tackle play is near impossible to find in later rounds" is going hard lol? Seemed like you made some stuff up & were having trouble defending it. Now someone is odd for asking you to source your takes?What’s more odd, me being mildly annoyed at how they spent a late 6th and 7th round pick, while otherwise being complimentary of the draft, or you going this hard to invalidate my annoyance?
And as I’ve since said, Clayton being eligible for the pathways exemption completely changes the calculus of the pick. All for it knowing he won’t be eligible to be stolen like other PS designees. No threat of losing him like most of the other lineman we’ve tried stashing.
This literally goes against everything Beane said in his most recent PC. You also have to factor in large practice squads & in season wiggle room.Money for signing rookies often gets brought up as something they need cap space for and why our (eventual) $13 million in cap space isn't as big as it appears. This year I'm not expecting our rookie class to be incredible expensive against the cap. Remember they only cost cap money if the contract signed is greater than the contract it's replacing. Our #53 cap hit is currently $985,000. Ray Davis's projected cap hit is $973,000, so only the first three picks could add to the cap:
Player Projected Cap K Replaced Added Cap Keon Coleman $1,812,000 $987,000 $827,000 Cole Bishop $1,191,000 $985,000 $206,000 Dewayne Carter $1,021,000 $985,000 $36,000
Total cap added: $1,069,000
And that's not even considering the implications if it's a bigger contract that gets cut (Mc'Kitty, Buechele, and Hamler are all over 1 million and likely to get cut). On the whole, when thinking about rookie contract budget, it's really only about a million in cap space.
This literally goes against everything Beane said in his most recent PC. You also have to factor in large practice squads & in season wiggle room.
I'm not saying they won't sign ANYONE. But i seriously doubt it will be the premier players left on the open market.
Asking you to explain where you got "tackle play is near impossible to find in later rounds" is going hard lol? Seemed like you made some stuff up & were having trouble defending it. Now someone is odd for asking you to source your takes?
You suggesting that those rookie contracts will cost next to nothing & they will have all of White's cap money to spend on FAs. That isn't going to happen. Beane literally said it.How does suggesting they're going to sign a couple of modest contracts go against everything Beane says in his press conference? No one is talking about top of market guys.
I'm not seeing any difference between the positions when it comes to the late rounds. Looks like tackles are even one of your best bets of finding 2nd tier players around 20% success rate when other positions look to be around 10% in the late rounds. If anything GMs should be targeting OT, LB, and DBs in the late rounds based on success rates.View attachment 861285Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart
Constructing surplus value from scratch.opensourcefootball.com
View attachment 861287
What analytical draft value curves are missing about NFL roster building
We've come a long way since the days of the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, but newer analytical draft value curves are still missing critical contextunexpectedpoints.substack.com
View attachment 861281
View attachment 861284
Aside from QB, OT has the harshest curve of any position no matter what metric you use. It's next to impossible to find starters outside of the first and even competent backups outside of day 2. It's why a good backup swing tackle makes more than a starting RB. Now there's an argument to be made that because it's so hard to hit we should just keep taking swings late in the draft, but I'd rather use those resources on players with a more realistic chance to contribute or be stashed like specialists, injury redshirts, etc.
The rookies will cost about $1 million in cap space against what we have committed right now. That's not what I'm suggesting. That's a fact.You suggesting that those rookie contracts will cost next to nothing & they will have all of White's cap money to spend on FAs. That isn't going to happen. Beane literally said it.
And I'd argue that the guys you're talking about ARE top of the market as far as best remaining players are concerned.
A lot of issues even before the gambling with Detroit. Had some big red flags while at Wisconsin.Odd
WR Quintez Cephus, Bills reach 1-year deal
The NFL reinstated Cephus earlier this month following his year-long suspension for violating the league's gambling policy.theathletic.com
You suggesting that those rookie contracts will cost next to nothing & they will have all of White's cap money to spend on FAs. That isn't going to happen. Beane literally said it.
And I'd argue that the guys you're talking about ARE top of the market as far as best remaining players are concerned.
I guess thinking about it in terms of what we've replaced in terms of snaps:
- Davis -> Coleman
- Diggs -> Samuel
- Shakir -> Shakir
- Sherfield -> Hollins
- Harty -> ????? (155 snaps)
Cant say its them but maybe they get one vet for a low contractObviously it won't be a 1-to-1 anywhere, but Harty's snaps not being replaced (in addition to asking Coleman and Samuel to take on that many snaps being a big ask, even if Shakir's role grows) certainly seems like a hole at WR4/5. There's certainly guys that could compete for it, but a more real veteran option would be nice, especially someone with speed. Looking at free agency:
- Renfrow (slot only)
- Robinson (slow)
- OBJ (probably uninterested in being a 4)
- Gallup (I like it if he's cheap)
- Boyd (slot only)
- MVS (one trick pony, but does that trick well)
- DJ Chark (I like it if he's cheap)
- Hardman
- Goodwin
No problems here giving a player a second chance in a league that pimps legalized gamblingA lot of issues even before the gambling with Detroit. Had some big red flags while at Wisconsin.
Hopefully he’s learned. Not the typical Beane signing.
(also @Husko)One Possible answer to your rebuttal is that Beane is being coy. Would it benefit him to say, well Sal, I have calculated our cap space for remaining free agents down to a nickel and we could blow another 9.8 Million come June 1st. We could always restructure too and fit Deebo in somehow Sal. Picked a high end name, but that's obviously not realistic.
It could be some smoke and you just never know. I agree with Husko. Not top dollar, but they'll possibly bring in a $3-$5 Million WR and D Line guy come June that is not getting what tthey'd expect to get on the market and needs to settle for a prove it deal.
When it comes to snaps and targets, I won't be surprised if they balance things out more than they did the last couple of years with Diggs and Davis getting huge snap and target shares.I guess thinking about it in terms of what we've replaced in terms of snaps:
Obviously it won't be a 1-to-1 anywhere, but Harty's snaps not being replaced (in addition to asking Coleman and Samuel to take on that many snaps being a big ask, even if Shakir's role grows) certainly seems like a hole at WR4/5. There's certainly guys that could compete for it, but a more real veteran option would be nice, especially someone with speed. Looking at free agency:
- Davis -> Coleman
- Diggs -> Samuel
- Shakir -> Shakir
- Sherfield -> Hollins
- Harty -> ????? (155 snaps)
- Renfrow (slot only)
- Robinson (slow)
- OBJ (probably uninterested in being a 4)
- Gallup (I like it if he's cheap)
- Boyd (slot only)
- MVS (one trick pony, but does that trick well)
- DJ Chark (I like it if he's cheap)
- Hardman
- Goodwin
Snaps | Targets | |
Davis | 966 | 81 |
Diggs | 949 | 160 |
Shakir | 604 | 45 |
Sherfield | 392 | 22 |
Harty | 155 | 21 |
Isabella | 2 | 0 |
3068 | 329 |
The other barrier to making a trade for a big cap hit guy is that they have to fit the cap hit of a guy they trade for BEFORE they can restructure him.(also @Husko)
He wasn't being coy - he flat out said not to expect any big signings but to expect some minor ones. He has a strong track record of living up to his word.
The fact that guys like Deebo are even having to be mentioned is embarrassing IMO. It shows such a lack of understanding of their cap situation, a lack of respect even.
He could restructure some contracts - but i think it's pretty obvious that he won't. This is the 'reset' year where he's taking his medicine. He's not cutting extremely productive/important players like Mitch Morse otherwise.
I would generally agree with @Husko's calculations above. Let's assume they wind up with ~$8m in cap space after rookie contracts, final roster moves, etc. You still need to allow in season wiggle room, still need to consider any possible mid season trades if a big time player goes down (eg White/Douglas), you can't leave yourself with zero.
So it's possible they could sign a $2-3m DE & a $2-3m WR. Or one single player at either of those positions making $5-6m - not two.
Here's where i think we really disagree though. You're likely not getting the calibre of player being discussed for such low salaries. EG Ngakoue was being paid $10.5m last year, MVS $10m, Boyd $10.75m, OBJ $15m, Gallup $11.5m.
There are 28 other teams in the league currently with more cap space. Even after the $10m from White there will be 18 teams with more space - not accounting for any other post 1st June cuts (i don't have a full list).
I think guys in the next tier such as DJ Chark are more realistic targets to discuss.