GDT: Training Camp Discussion PART III

[Buds17]

Brooks is the only waiver candidate I worry about losing. Still think he can be a late bloomer and more than a depth piece

I'd somewhat agree. I'm not entirely convinced that he'd be claimed but I think it's more of a possibility than it was for either of Anderson or Menell.

 

[SprDaVE]

I haven't been keeping up with the Leafs much lately. Who is our #1 goalie? Or is that up in the air right now? Or do you think they'll split the games pretty evenly?

I think it's Campbells crease to lose to start off. But I suspect they will end up with a similar amount of starts, if healthy of course.

 

[egd27]

I think given his play last year, Campbell will be considered the 1A and Mrazek the 1B. So, I would be surprised if it wasn't Campbell starting game #1 on Wednesday.

However, this could change within a week and there's a reason I call them 1A/1B.

The "back-up" should get nearly 35 games if there are no injuries.

I'd guess Campbell at home Wednesday and Mzarek in Ottawa on Thursday

 

[ACC1224]

Sounds like they will be allowing full capacity to Leaf games.

Since when? As of October 4 it was 50%. Our season invoice is based on that.

**** Just saw on TSN, you're right. Not sure how I feel about it.

 

[Jojalu]

I understand your point, and you are correct that is rarely happens. Doesn't mean it shouldn't in some cases.

Let's go back to JVR and Bozak. Some bitched about Lou not dealing them, but the Leafs probably don't make the playoffs if he had.

We mayne get somexsort of tangible asset for either one, but most likely mid round pick or Tier 2 prospect who nevers helps the Leafs anyways.

I just think it sends a terrible message to your team, and a surefire way to get fired if you start trading pieces away on a good team.

I am sure there are circumstances where you could argue it woukd be prudent, but I doubt very much anyone on the Leafs, or most of their fanbase would have been happy if Dubas traded Hyman last year.

Going to go through it again this year. No chance they trade Reilly(unless the package is so over the top) if the Leafs get off to a good start and look like they have a shot.

 

[ACC1224]

Nah I'm more of a lurker. Don't really start threads.

But there should probably be one to talk about the last pre-season game specifically.

I imagine someone will start one up in the morning when the rosters are announced.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Let's go back to JVR and Bozak. Some bitched about Lou not dealing them, but the Leafs probably don't make the playoffs if he had.

We mayne get somexsort of tangible asset for either one, but most likely mid round pick or Tier 2 prospect who nevers helps the Leafs anyways.

I just think it sends a terrible message to your team, and a surefire way to get fired if you start trading pieces away on a good team.

I am sure there are circumstances where you could argue it woukd be prudent, but I doubt very much anyone on the Leafs, or most of their fanbase would have been happy if Dubas traded Hyman last year.

Going to go through it again this year. No chance they trade Reilly(unless the package is so over the top) if the Leafs get off to a good start and look like they have a shot.

That year Grabner returned a prospect + 2nd, Plekanec returned a 2nd+, Tatar returned a 1st + 2nd + 3rd. A reasonable return for JVR + Bozak would have been 1st + 2nd + 2nd at least, maybe more with retention. We got more for Franson + Santorelli + Polak, hell we traded the same replacement level grinder for a 2nd in two consecutive years.

McDonagh and JT Miller returned a 1st, a conditional 1st/2nd, and 3 ~2nd round pick value filler pieces that same deadline. JVR + Bozak + not trading for Plekanec = 1st + 3 2nds. JT Miller later returned a 1st + on his own. Which team do you think would have been better, one with JVR Bozak and Plekanec, or a team with McDonagh and a young physical 1W/2C? Both McDonagh and Miller had term as well, we'd have them for at least 2 playoff runs.

If Dubas traded Hyman last year and used the return + cap space to rent Hall + Foligno or some other grinder, we'd be better off considering Hyman was a ghost in the playoffs.

I get that drastically shaking up locker room chemistry close to the playoffs isn't ideal, but there's value to be had selling off pieces you don't need for ones you do. If one of Liljegren/Sandin/Dermott step up this year and show they can handle top-4 minutes, Rielly/Holl should be on the table if a contract extension isn't looking likely. Rielly/Holl both bring back 1st+ from a contender with a hole on D and some money to play with in the summer. Rielly out and a Muzzin-type deal (1st + 2nd + 2nd for a #2/3 with an extra year of term) in doesn't make us worse today.

It's not Dubas' thing to let FAs walk, I like that he knows when to cut ties and avoid boat anchors for support players. It's just strange that for all his Moneyball approaches, he hasn't exploited what seems like a market inefficiency that only exists because it's taboo to shake up the room when you're winning.

 

[Jeypic]

That year Grabner returned a prospect + 2nd, Plekanec returned a 2nd+, Tatar returned a 1st + 2nd + 3rd. A reasonable return for JVR + Bozak would have been 1st + 2nd + 2nd at least, maybe more with retention. We got more for Franson + Santorelli + Polak, hell we traded the same replacement level grinder for a 2nd in two consecutive years.

McDonagh and JT Miller returned a 1st, a conditional 1st/2nd, and 3 ~2nd round pick value filler pieces that same deadline. JVR + Bozak + not trading for Plekanec = 1st + 3 2nds. JT Miller later returned a 1st + on his own. Which team do you think would have been better, one with JVR Bozak and Plekanec, or a team with McDonagh and a young physical 1W/2C? Both McDonagh and Miller had term as well, we'd have them for at least 2 playoff runs.

If Dubas traded Hyman last year and used the return + cap space to rent Hall + Foligno or some other grinder, we'd be better off considering Hyman was a ghost in the playoffs.

I get that drastically shaking up locker room chemistry close to the playoffs isn't ideal, but there's value to be had selling off pieces you don't need for ones you do. If one of Liljegren/Sandin/Dermott step up this year and show they can handle top-4 minutes, Rielly/Holl should be on the table if a contract extension isn't looking likely. Rielly/Holl both bring back 1st+ from a contender with a hole on D and some money to play with in the summer. Rielly out and a Muzzin-type deal (1st + 2nd + 2nd for a #2/3 with an extra year of term) in doesn't make us worse today.

It's not Dubas' thing to let FAs walk, I like that he knows when to cut ties and avoid boat anchors for support players. It's just strange that for all his Moneyball approaches, he hasn't exploited what seems like a market inefficiency that only exists because it's taboo to shake up the room when you're winning.

Hyman was having a great season for us. He had chemistry with our team. He was good in the locker room. It would have been ludicrous to trade him away, his teammates and fans would have been pissed. And if we lost… Dubas would have been fired for making such a stupid move.

Just because you have 20/20 hindsight, shouldn’t mean you can criticize like this.

Losing teams sell at the deadline. Winning teams buy. I don’t understand how this logic is lost to so many fans. Too many video games i guess.

And here’s some 20/20 foresight for you. Sandin, Liljegren, and Dermott have no chance of replacing what Reilly brings to our team this season. Maybe 5 years from now you could make that argument if they develop better then expected, but there’s no way it’s happening this year.

 

[Lightsol]

That super-deep Panthers squad is starting Joe Thornton as its #3C.

You might remember Joe as the guy who was barely holding on to a 4th line wing spot for us last year even while we had injuries.

What absolutely kills me about Florida is how so many here list them as a surefire top 3 Atlantic team, and Stanley Cup contender, and in the same breath say the Leafs are neither until they win a round. How many rounds have the Panthers won in the last 20 years? Oh, yeah, 0.

 

[LeafChief]

What absolutely kills me about Florida is how so many here list them as a surefire top 3 Atlantic team, and Stanley Cup contender, and in the same breath say the Leafs are neither until they win a round. How many rounds have the Panthers won in the last 20 years? Oh, yeah, 0.

That and the fact that people will hold the North Division against the Leafs while not taking into account that Florida got to play Detroit, Chicago and Columbus last season over 20 times.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Any word on if Matthews is playing the final preseason game?

 

[stickty111]

Any word on if Matthews is playing the final preseason game?

He isn't.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yeah, that's basically what I said. It's about the quality of opposition, not number of teams.

On the contrary, you're going to be shocked when we put up good defensive results again. We'll be playing more of both good and bad teams.

There wasn’t a single other good team in the North division…

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yeah, that's basically what I said. It's about the quality of opposition, not number of teams.

On the contrary, you're going to be shocked when we put up good defensive results again. We'll be playing more of both good and bad teams.

This is gonna be a huge “I told you so” thread one way or another however I have the utmost confidence you’ll cherry pick some stats to suit your narrative haha

 

[DraftSchmaft]

What absolutely kills me about Florida is how so many here list them as a surefire top 3 Atlantic team, and Stanley Cup contender, and in the same breath say the Leafs are neither until they win a round. How many rounds have the Panthers won in the last 20 years? Oh, yeah, 0.

Why does this kill you? We are emotionally invested in the Leafs so it's not the same. It's easy to acknowledge how good the Panthers are on paper and then not care if we were wrong when they get eliminated in the first round. If we weren't fans of the Leafs we'd do the same thing. We'd say "yeah they're contenders" then go on with our day and not lose any sleep when the first round loss comes.

Everyone on this board knows the Leafs will sleep walk through the regular season (which is them indirectly admitting that yes, Leafs are contenders). It's time for them to show they can win a round and meet expectations don't you think ? The answer to this question is yes so don't see what the issue is. We believe they are contenders but they have been letting us down, so its time for them to prove it. Pretty simple.

 

[Leaf Fans]

There wasn’t a single other good team in the North division…

Sure there were. There was Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa

 

[Kiwi]

Sure there were. There was Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Ottawa

I think you need to have a good long sit down and think through what "good" looks like

Montreal was extremely average during the regular season

Ottawa were rebuilding

Winnipeg had awful advanced stats and a horrible defense

We curb stomped Edmonton and they were swept out of the playoffs by Winnipeg

I think we will make this year's playoffs in a very good division but the Canadian division wasn't good by any stretch of the imagination

 

[Gabriel426]

The Canadian Division was bad last season.
If the Leafs actually took care of business against the Nucks after their COVID break and the Sens, they would had won the President Trophy.
The Flames also struggled and couldnt get it together.
Anyhow, that’s the past. No point kept revisiting it over and over again.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

I think you need to have a good long sit down and think through what "good" looks like

Montreal was extremely average during the regular season

Ottawa were rebuilding

Winnipeg had awful advanced stats and a horrible defense

We curb stomped Edmonton and they were swept out of the playoffs by Winnipeg

I think we will make this year's playoffs in a very good division but the Canadian division wasn't good by any stretch of the imagination

People are misunderstanding the statements about the north being weak which is why they end up defending it I think.

Saying the North is weak does not mean you are saying the Leafs weren't a good regular season team.

You still have to be a very elite team to walk over a division no matter how weak it is. This is the NHL not house league. If the division was harder, Leafs would still make the playoffs and be considered a contender.

Also it would have been better if we weren't in such a weak division for 56 games. If we were more battle tested we'd have easily swept the Habs.

Having strong rivals keeps you at your best and ready for war (taking Bruins to 7 games type series). Leafs only saw 6 mediocre teams all season long then lost embarrassingly. I don't see this happening if we had an actual contender in the division to face 8-10 times.

 

[zeke]

Saying the North is weak does not mean you are saying the Leafs weren't a good regular season team.

That's exactly what is meant, of course.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

That's exactly what is meant, of course.

Not really. Very rare to find someone here who thinks Leafs aren't a good regular season team. The toxicity starts when it's time to discuss anything related to playoffs.

 

[Marmoset]

I get that drastically shaking up locker room chemistry close to the playoffs isn't ideal, but there's value to be had selling off pieces you don't need for ones you do. If one of Liljegren/Sandin/Dermott step up this year and show they can handle top-4 minutes, Rielly/Holl should be on the table if a contract extension isn't looking likely. Rielly/Holl both bring back 1st+ from a contender with a hole on D and some money to play with in the summer. Rielly out and a Muzzin-type deal (1st + 2nd + 2nd for a #2/3 with an extra year of term) in doesn't make us worse today.

Besides locker room chemistry, dealing Rielly leading into the playoffs is almost guaranteed to make the team worse. Can you imagine the furor from the fans, the media, and probably ownership? Even if someone theoretically steps up and shows they can handle his role, having depth is a good thing and this team expects to contend for a Stanley Cup. If you could have two Rielly's instead of one, you have a better chance to win the Cup. That's the only thing anyone will care about. Holl is obviously not as significant but he too is the type of guy contenders usually trade for, not trade away.

I was in favour of seriously exploring moving Rielly this summer because I do not think we should risk losing him for nothing and because I think his new contract will likely be terrible for whichever team signs him. Now that it didn't happen, which we expected, the only way he would be traded is if the Leafs look like they will miss the playoffs AND they don't think they will be re-signing him. Without those two conditions he will not be dealt. And he shouldn't be. Barring a disaster of a season, the time to trade him has passed.

 

[zeke]

Not really. Very rare to find someone here who thinks Leafs aren't a good regular season team. The toxicity starts when it's time to discuss anything related to playoffs.

Plenty of people think the Leafs are a bubble playoffs team as their record last year was fake due to division.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Plenty of people think the Leafs are a bubble playoffs team as their record last year was fake due to division.

I guess I'm out of touch with some of the arguments here then. I retract my statement then. My assumption was that majority of people see regular season as a write off and are waiting for the playoffs until they judge (judge as in willing to admit we are legit cup contenders)

As an edit I meant to say majority of the negative crowd, not majority out of everyone.

 

[Kiwi]

That's exactly what is meant, of course.

We were a good regular season team in a **** division

Just like Vegas this year, Vegas isn't bad the division is however

Plenty of people think the Leafs are a bubble playoffs team as their record last year was fake due to division.

That's absolute bull****

The vast majority on here thought we were a good team last season even if some of us thought the division left something to be desired and the vast majority still think we are a playoff team in an extremely competitive division this year