GDT: Training Camp Discussion PART II

[Kiwi]

Such a deadly contract!

(Moved easily for an asset).

That's what it is now, we moved it before it became damn near immovable
That's what happens when a top 6 forward scores 11 points in 50 games and makes 3,4M

 

[Kiwi]

I'd still take Anderson over a 2nd round pick if I had to do it over (assuming he clears). Anderson has a better chance of turning into a quality player than a 2nd round pick.

He had some injuries, and more so than anything, he was a guy on a team with very few bright spots. He had some ups and downs, like Woll and Brooks did as well, but that is still better than half of the roster last year, which was just bad throughout.

I will also put this out there:
Joey Anderson last year had 7 goals and 11 points in 20 games (or pacing for 21 goals and 33 points in 60 games) as a 23 year old on one of the worst teams in the league.
Zach Hyman had 15 goals and 37 points in 59 games as a 24 year old back in 2015-2016 on an amazing team with Keefe as head coach. Made the NHL at 25.
Blake Coleman had 19 goals and 39 points in 52 games as a 25 year old in 2016-2017 on a fringe playoff team. Made the NHL at 25; full time at 26.

Three very similar players. Anderson is still well on track. I just hope we can give him that extra year in the AHL.

I'd rather roll the dice on the pick

You can get replacement level 4th liners for league min any time you feel like it, but if that pick hits at even 5-10% and nets you a top 6 player on an ELC that's gold and worth 1000 Anderson types

Also showing 2 guys with very different to the norm development paths in relation to Anderson means bugger all, his development has stalled and it's going to take an out and out miracle for him to get on that development path

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Not a chance. These 3 studs + Andersen are why we finally saw consistent playoffs. Matthews rookie year was actually Nylander putting the team on his back in March.

They squeaked into the playoffs by like one point, selling Bozak and JVR for picks/prospects would almost certainly meant we missed the playoffs.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd rather roll the dice on the pick

You can get replacement level 4th liners for league min any time you feel like it, but if that pick hits at even 5-10% and nets you a top 6 player on an ELC that's gold and worth 1000 Anderson types

Also showing 2 guys with very different to the norm development paths in relation to Anderson means bugger all, his development has stalled and it's going to take an out and out miracle for him to get on that development path

Rust, Gourde, Maroon, Kunitz, etc. followed similar paths. And those are just guys who took longer to get to the NHL and became noteworthy top 9 complimentary players. The list increases substantially if I include guys who played like replacement level 4th liners in their early-mid 20's before becoming quality top 6/9 guys once they turned 25/26 (Armia, Laughton, etc.), or perhaps just become nothing special top 9ers but still better than replacement 4th liners. None of these guys I listed are getting anywhere close to league minimum in their primes, nor are they replacement level 4th liners right now.

Anderson is going into his 23 year old year, and I have no doubt he can already be a replacement level 4th liner. Maybe he is nothing more than that, but I would bet there is a better than 5-10% chance that he does become more than that.

Now compare that to an average 2nd round pick like Knies for example. What are the odds Knies even gets to Anderson's level right now (or what it was when we got him)? It's probably hovering at around 50% (compared to 100% for Anderson). The odds that he makes the NHL are maybe 25% (Anderson's shot is significantly higher than that; maybe not 100%, but he is easily capable of playing in the NHL right now if we really needed him to). The odds he reaches something more than just a replacement player are probably no better (and likely worse) than Anderson right now, and the odds that Knies become a star are perhaps better than Anderson, but still very low. On top of all of that, we are likely waiting 4 years before he even gets to the stage that Anderson is at right now... When we could use that cheap depth right now.

If Anderson was still considered a prospect, he would likely find himself in that 2nd tier where most of our 2nd round picks are currently finding themselves ranked... Except unlike most of those guys, he is not 2+ years away from even challenging for a spot in an NHL lineup. He is at the point where, if Kase suffers another major injury, Spezza falls off of a cliff, or Bunting can't perform, he is probably a full time NHLer at 23.

And that is why there are legitimate concerns that he is claimed off of waivers, even with his contract and the fact that he can probably use another 0.5-1 years in the AHL before making the NHL.

 

[Dump Itch]

Let's GOOOOOOOOO

 

[deprw]

I'd rather roll the dice on the pick

You can get replacement level 4th liners for league min any time you feel like it, but if that pick hits at even 5-10% and nets you a top 6 player on an ELC that's gold and worth 1000 Anderson types

Also showing 2 guys with very different to the norm development paths in relation to Anderson means bugger all, his development has stalled and it's going to take an out and out miracle for him to get on that development path

I think one part of this equation is situation where almost all of our recent draft picks had failed. Anderson is one warm body coming up during these RFA years of Matthews, Marner and Nylander. That 2nd rounder would have been project that would have taken few years longer. I think it's about preferences and situation would you take pick or a player. I think we have to walk on that thin line adding assets to system short and long term. Our drafting during Hunter years was abysmal and we had to bolster that short term more than long term at that point.

 

[Racer88]

Doesn't every team that thinks they can win the Stanley Cup let their own players walk for nothing.

I guess it boils down to whether the Leafs were actually contenders and how good of a job Dubas did assessing that fact.
We now know so far they are not even close to being a contender

 

[Dekes For Days]

We now know so far they are not even close to being a contender

Not true at all. There's nothing remotely unique about what we do with our pending UFAs.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I guess it boils down to whether the Leafs were actually contenders and how good of a job Dubas did assessing that fact.
We now know so far they are not even close to being a contender

We have flaws, but we are contenders. This is an important year for our core 4.

 

[aingefan]

Hope the two kids skip through.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I wonder if moving Kerfoot is the easy play to a 23 man roster. His $750,000 actual salary vs his cap hit this year could have a lot of value to a team like Ottawa.

Allows the final cuts to be Amadio/Gabriel/Biega and then run the following roster with $1.1M in cap space to start the year.

Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Nylander
Bunting-Kampf-Kase
Engvall-Brooks-Spezza
Semyonov-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Sandin-Holl
Dermott

Campbell
Mrazek

Kerfoot should have move value than what we gave up to protect him in expansion and while I like him if he isn't playing center, or LW in the top 6 we have cheaper options that can play 10-12 minutes a night.

 

[egd27]

View attachment 468624

What a stud of a season he had with NJ. I would have much rather kept Johnsson over getting the cap space. Definitely. For sure.

Broken brains need love too.

Are you suggesting Johnsson was not worth the 4 X $3.4M contract he was signed to, and as a result needed to be jettisoned for basically zero return other than correcting the that mistake?

Gee, I wonder what could have happened had he signed his RFA contract for what he was actually worth?

Actually, I think that question is pondered quite often over the past 3 years.

Brains that only work superficially need love too, I suppose.

 

[justloveleafs]

Rust, Gourde, Maroon, Kunitz, etc. followed similar paths. And those are just guys who took longer to get to the NHL and became noteworthy top 9 complimentary players. The list increases substantially if I include guys who played like replacement level 4th liners in their early-mid 20's before becoming quality top 6/9 guys once they turned 25/26 (Armia, Laughton, etc.), or perhaps just become nothing special top 9ers but still better than replacement 4th liners. None of these guys I listed are getting anywhere close to league minimum in their primes, nor are they replacement level 4th liners right now.

Anderson is going into his 23 year old year, and I have no doubt he can already be a replacement level 4th liner. Maybe he is nothing more than that, but I would bet there is a better than 5-10% chance that he does become more than that.

Now compare that to an average 2nd round pick like Knies for example. What are the odds Knies even gets to Anderson's level right now (or what it was when we got him)? It's probably hovering at around 50% (compared to 100% for Anderson). The odds that he makes the NHL are maybe 25% (Anderson's shot is significantly higher than that; maybe not 100%, but he is easily capable of playing in the NHL right now if we really needed him to). The odds he reaches something more than just a replacement player are probably no better (and likely worse) than Anderson right now, and the odds that Knies become a star are perhaps better than Anderson, but still very low. On top of all of that, we are likely waiting 4 years before he even gets to the stage that Anderson is at right now... When we could use that cheap depth right now.

If Anderson was still considered a prospect, he would likely find himself in that 2nd tier where most of our 2nd round picks are currently finding themselves ranked... Except unlike most of those guys, he is not 2+ years away from even challenging for a spot in an NHL lineup. He is at the point where, if Kase suffers another major injury, Spezza falls off of a cliff, or Bunting can't perform, he is probably a full time NHLer at 23.

And that is why there are legitimate concerns that he is claimed off of waivers, even with his contract and the fact that he can probably use another 0.5-1 years in the AHL before making the NHL.

Brother, can you make your paragraphs into two, or maybe even three...Too hard on the peeps sir..Thanks in advance.

 

[LeafChief]

Are you suggesting Johnsson was not worth the 4 X $3.4M contract he was signed to, and as a result needed to be jettisoned for basically zero return other than correcting the that mistake?

Gee, I wonder what could have happened had he signed his RFA contract for what he was actually worth?

Actually, I think that question is pondered quite often over the past 3 years.

Brains that only work superficially need love too, I suppose.

Sometimes a contract makes sense based on what the player has done to that point. When a player doesn't live up to that moving forward, you have to cut bait.

I don't live in a world where I blindly support the management staff regardless of what they do. I also don't live in a world where I bash them regardless of what they do. Impartial thought it important. Many of you should consider this.

Acknowledging your mistakes in a timely manner is a skill. Being stubborn doesn't get you ahead. Being a clown gets you nowhere.

 

[The Iceman]

I guess it boils down to whether the Leafs were actually contenders and how good of a job Dubas did assessing that fact.
We now know so far they are not even close to being a contender

Are you basing this comment off of our franchise record for points last year or something else?

 

[ULF_55]

I think Anderson can still be a very good 4th line player who can play an energy role while chipping in 10 goals. He definitely has some value, especially signed to 2 more years at league min.

Adam Brooks is 25, and really only got his feet wet the same age Anderson is now. And Brooks only had 7 games that year.

Seems 23 might be too young to write off your depth players.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

I could see the Sens grabbing some forwards. Colin White went down longish term and with Brady unsigned they aren't even at the floor, if they can't get him done by puckdrop they need a couple forwards just to be compliant, and the next choices for them are pretty slim.
Their coach may have some attachment to Brooks or Engvall.

 

[-DeMo-]

They squeaked into the playoffs by like one point, selling Bozak and JVR for picks/prospects would almost certainly meant we missed the playoffs.

Even if that were true but we have no way of knowing, what difference would that have made? We lost in the first round anyways, not like that experience has paid off for us yet.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Not true at all. There's nothing remotely unique about what we do with our pending UFAs.

Hindsight is always 20/20. We played above our heads back then. We were not Cup contenders. We would have been much further ahead to have traded Bozak and JVR for picks and/or prospects, and not have traded picks away for pure rentals.

 

[justashadowof]

Adam Brooks is 25, and really only got his feet wet the same age Anderson is now. And Brooks only had 7 games that year.

Seems 23 might be too young to write off your depth players.

This is what I hate about the NHL's current CBA. While it seems to work for the league's star talent for both team and player, regarding the league's other players it forces organizations' hands to make early decisions on them. Why is it so unreasonable that some player takes until 25 years of age to become an NHL talent? Once established that player could have 10 years in the league but the organization that invested years of resources into the player only get 2 NHL years before unrestricted free agency. What motivation do NHL organizations have to take on these sorts of longer term projects?

It's for this reason the Carter Verhaeghe who showed up at age 20 as a lethargic big kid with nice hands would never have become a Leaf even if he had stayed for several seasons. It's for this reason that the Leafs invested in the lower upside of Freddie Gauthier over his draft cohort with more offensive potential.

 

[zeke]

Adam Brooks is 25, and really only got his feet wet the same age Anderson is now. And Brooks only had 7 games that year.

Seems 23 might be too young to write off your depth players.

Or our star players, for that matter.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Doesn't every team that thinks they can win the Stanley Cup let their own players walk for nothing.

It’s a fine line between being an actual Cup contender and thinking you are one. And that leads into what we have witnessed these last 5 years, keeping own rentals which walk away for nothing as opposed to acquiring draft picks and/or prospects, as well as trading away draft picks for pure rentals.
Unless you hit the jackpot and win the Cup or at least make it to the final four, it eventually comes back and bites you in the ass.

 

[zeke]

Are you suggesting Johnsson was not worth the 4 X $3.4M contract he was signed to, and as a result needed to be jettisoned for basically zero return other than correcting the that mistake?

Gee, I wonder what could have happened had he signed his RFA contract for what he was actually worth?

Actually, I think that question is pondered quite often over the past 3 years.

Brains that only work superficially need love too, I suppose.

Well, at least one other GM though he was worth that contract.

And signing a cheaper contract wouldnt have stopped him from being a bad player last year.

 

[egd27]

Acknowledging your mistakes in a timely manner is a skill. Being stubborn doesn't get you ahead.

I agree with this completely.

A mistake was made and it was corrected as best it could be. But let's not pretend that correcting that mistake didn't have a cost associated with it.

 

[egd27]

Well, at least one other GM though he was worth that contract.

And signing a cheaper contract wouldnt have stopped him from being a bad player last year.

Yup, thank goodness Kid Kyle is not the only GM that over values players