GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Is that some type of riddle?

The core that doesn't win will have amplified problems when their salaries increase

 

[Menzinger]

First of all, Larsson has a 4 mil caphit. We didn't miss out on him because of what our top 4 are paid. He was also an expansion pick, not a UFA.

Secondly, Dougie Hamilton has got to be the most overrated dman in the league. Somehow both soft and injury prone, and is overpaid at 9m. Give me Marner or Nylander over him anyday.

Pietarangelo would have been great, no question, but Vegas is a more attractive destination than Toronto, the guy wanted to play there, so simply assuming we would have been able to sign him if not for the cap room is rather baseless.

No, odds are we would have signed a lesser dman, like an Orlov. Would that make us more balanced - sure. Would it make us better to replace Marner/Nylander with an Orlov + whatever forward an extra 3mil in cap room could buy? I doubt it.

Yep. The main problem with "what if" scenarios/argument is folks usually tend to assume best case scenarios as the alternative.

Imo guys like Pietarangelo and Hamilton were never going to sign long term in Canada for a mix of reasons.

Grass isnt always going to be greener ect

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Is that some type of riddle?

$3.25 lol ur so dum i got it almost rite away

 

[Rare Jewel]

CBJ we were just awful all-around. Dubas gave up on that team early. MTL series, our 11m forward got knocked out right away and Price, one of the all-time greats, stole that series. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that one other than it's nice to have a hall of fame level goalie...and maybe also a couple of big butchers on D wouldn't hurt.

Stole the series? Price was good, but they still gave up a 3-1 series lead. A lot more has to happen than a Goalie being on his game to capitulate a series like that. They lost 3-1 in game 7, it's just not good enough.

Not sure what you mean by cherry-picking. Playoffs are small sample size, any example we draw can be misconstrued as cherry-picking. Our top guys came through in both TB series, but not in the Florida series, yes. Our depth guys did not show up in any series however, and that's the crux of the issue. If we go back to the Florida series, no star player on either team stood out - it was a physical grindfest with Bob suddenly rediscovering his Vezina form.

What do I mean? Picking one series and seemingly ignoring the others is what I mean.

Also, "Came through" is debatable. TB was a bit washed last year and clearly didn't have as good defense as the year prior. In '22, it came down to game 7 at home, and they lost 2-1. Not exactly coming through, is it?

But the "crux," as you say, is affected by the lack of money that they can allocate to the depth due to the team's top-heaviness.

We wouldn't trade Marner for Pesce - we'd trade Marner for cap spend on defense presumably. Pesce was just one example of what we can get with that cap. Hanifin would be another, though we'd have to overpay to get him to Canada. In any of these scenarios, I think we're worse-off without Marner.

Well, they overpay Marner already, and to keep them would only further that. At least they would be spending the money on a different and much more needed position

Finally, getting that #1 goalie isn't an issue of cap, it's an issue of availability. Those guys don't show up on the market too often. Saros was apparently out there briefly, maybe he'll be available in the off-season. How do we afford him? Well, he has a smaller cap hit than Bertuzzi. Markstrom and Ullmark would be the other options - their cap hits are in the same range as well.

I think perhaps moving to a #1 and backup setup, rather than this 1a 1b thing, could be something worth looking into.

However, to sign Ullmark, for example, who's a UFA next summer, he's going to get a big bump in pay. It's not going to be a $5m cap hit like he's on now, it'll be something closer to Hellebuyck's deal.

So, my concern still remains: say they are available, how do you get them if you have very little cap space or now tradable assets to acquire them?

 

[Fogelhund]

CBJ we were just awful all-around. Dubas gave up on that team early. MTL series, our 11m forward got knocked out right away and Price, one of the all-time greats, stole that series. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that one other than it's nice to have a hall of fame level goalie...and maybe also a couple of big butchers on D wouldn't hurt.

(Against MTL) Also recall that Tavares was out due to concussion, and Matthews needed wrist surgery, (after being slashed) and could barely hold the stick against Montreal. Nobody wins with their top two C's hurt.

 

[Kurtz]

Stole the series? Price was good, but they still gave up a 3-1 series lead. A lot more has to happen than a Goalie being on his game to capitulate a series like that. They lost 3-1 in game 7, it's just not good enough.


What do I mean? Picking one series and seemingly ignoring the others is what I mean.

Also, "Came through" is debatable. TB was a bit washed last year and clearly didn't have as good defense as the year prior. In '22, it came down to game 7 at home, and they lost 2-1. Not exactly coming through, is it?

But the "crux," as you say, is affected by the lack of money that they can allocate to the depth due to the team's top-heaviness.



Well, they overpay Marner already, and to keep them would only further that. At least they would be spending the money on a different and much more needed position




I think perhaps moving to a #1 and backup setup, rather than this 1a 1b thing, could be something worth looking into.

However, to sign Ullmark, for example, who's a UFA next summer, he's going to get a big bump in pay. It's not going to be a $5m cap hit like he's on now, it'll be something closer to Hellebuyck's deal.

So, my concern still remains: say they are available, how do you get them if you have very little cap space or now tradable assets to acquire them?

Price did steal that series - you can look at the post-series metrics and it was comical how much the Habs were dominated. Again though, JT was out and as Fogel pointed out, Matthews was injured so that's a rather moot point.

I don't get why you don't consider an example of a 5-game Florida cherry picking but 13 games of TB you do consider cherry picking. Again, playoffs are short, rosters and opponents change, so virtually any playoff sampling can be called cherry-picking. It's a weird statement to make.

You bring up Tampa game 7, 2-1 game to make a point (wouldn't this be cherry-picking too by your standards? 1-game sample? I digress). Do you remember who scored both goals for Tampa? Nick Paul. Do you know what he was making? About league minimum. Do you remember the other difference maker in that series? Corey Perry. Do you know what he was making?

Again, it's not about how much you spend on your bottom-liners, it's about the finding the right guys. There's some correlation there, no doubt, but I for example have more confidence in Benoit+Mcmann heading into the playoffs than Holl+Kerfoot, and the former make a third of the salary.

As far as the Ullmark situation, he becomes UFA the same year as JT does, so there's your money (and then some) without an issue.

 

[Kurtz]

Yep. The main problem with "what if" scenarios/argument is folks usually tend to assume best case scenarios as the alternative.

Imo guys like Pietarangelo and Hamilton were never going to sign long term in Canada for a mix of reasons.

Grass isnt always going to be greener ect

I think Hamilton would be hated here. A softy like that, frequently injured and making 9 mil? Doesn't elevate his game in the playoffs, notoriously poor teammate. Add that to our fan bases' penchant towards hating on one dman every year...yikes.

Hell, if Dubas wasn't fired, rumour last summer was that he was going to move one of Nylander or Marner and bring in Karlsson. How would our future look right now with that transaction?

 

[seanlinden]

Disagree entirely. Yes, we haven't won, but it hasn't necessarily been for the lack of production from our big 4. As shown in the TB example, we've lost even when our big 4 produced to expectations simply because the other team's cheap depth players came through when ours didn't.

Thus the proposed solution to part with the aspect that has worked just makes no sense. The idea that we have "so little to lose" is also not true - Marner for example has another half decade at least of his prime. That's what we'd be losing if we trade him in for a few quarters like Pesce.

Instead of trying to dismantle the things that have worked, how about focusing on the things we've been lacking? We've lacked scoring depth - Tre has addressed this. We've lacked physicality - he's addressed this too. We've also been outcoached, and haven't had a world-class #1 goalie who could steal us a series since Eddie. I'd prefer it if we focus on addressing these actual problems rather than breaking the parts that have worked for the sake of change.

Not really sure that I can agree with the bolded. Yes, Bertuzzi & Domi have finally started to produce a little, but they are still very much "passengers" much like Michael Bunting was last year.

That "depth" is also going to get substantailly eroded next year, when Matthews & Nyander get $6.5m in raises, and the entire league gets $4m extra to spend.

The reality is, the Leafs spend more on their top 4 forwards than anyone in the league, and it's not even close. Next year, they will have the #1, #6, and two more in the top 10. All that money spent on those guys means something else has to give.

 

[nuck]

Thing is, it's not like we had a choice between those 4 forwards and Hellebuck or Makar or someone of that ilk. If you let go of Marner then you can afford a Pesce plus a Domi in free agency. Are we better off in that scenario, trading in a dollar for four quarters?

If you want to see a four quarters scenario, look at what Lou has put together in New York. Just a whole lotta $5 mil/season players, and not even a Vezina-level goalie can pull that team into respectability.

To be fair if Lou's two dollars were Matty and Mitch rather than Barzal and Horvat that club would probably be having much different results. Letting go of a Mitch still leaves Matthews and Nylander. How many clubs have a top 2 close that? This sounds a lot like the "if we got got rid of Nylander we would just be looking for another Nylander" argument. Except they wouldn't. No team except the Leafs is built around three primarily offense first forwards and a bunch of foot solders. It doesn't take a $36M spend on 3 forwards to win. We know this because the only club to try it is the Leafs and they haven't won.

Yep. The main problem with "what if" scenarios/argument is folks usually tend to assume best case scenarios as the alternative.

Imo guys like Pietrangelo and Hamilton were never going to sign long term in Canada for a mix of reasons.

Grass isnt always going to be greener ect

We don't actually know that. AP signed for $8.8M x 7 which the Leafs were many millions away from being able to match. Believe what you want but it isn't like the guy turned down $9.5M per with the usual insane Leaf front loading to come home like JT. The cap meant they were not ever in the bidding.

With Hamilton I don't recall any smoke around him not wanting Canada, he just wanted to get paid. He left Calgary after signing long term because he "didn't fit the culture or style" of the Flames at the time. They wanted him out of Canada not the other way around. Love the guy or not, its hard to imagine the Leafs aren't measurably better giving him Justin Hole's minutes. They may have been interested but they could only afford $3.75M that summer for Kase and Ritchie which put them over the cap anyways.

When I look at the good deals the club has made I see assets spent on retention which weakened the clubs future. I see the 1st spent to offload Marlowe (yes he was Lou's add but the deal wasn't any issue until they added Tavares). I see some good players added to the absolute limit of the available cap space and I wonder what they might have done with another $5-6M to play with.

The worst case scenario is probably they don't spend a thing extra on cap driven moves and they make similar additions to what they had, But if they don't get AP maybe they get Toews from NYI or Walker from LA. Maybe they can afford bigger moves then two 3rd pairing guys to load up this year. Agreed certainly, the lack of cap only cost them a shot at Pietrangelo, not the player. But it isn't like only a $9M defenseman improves the club, they have been cutting corners all over the place for years. 8 more years of Mitch/Willie just keeps them poor enough to be tied to the original Dubas plan and not any more competitive then they have been.

 

[Kurtz]

Not really sure that I can agree with the bolded. Yes, Bertuzzi & Domi have finally started to produce a little, but they are still very much "passengers" much like Michael Bunting was last year.

That "depth" is also going to get substantailly eroded next year, when Matthews & Nyander get $6.5m in raises, and the entire league gets $4m extra to spend.

The reality is, the Leafs spend more on their top 4 forwards than anyone in the league, and it's not even close. Next year, they will have the #1, #6, and two more in the top 10. All that money spent on those guys means something else has to give.

With the way Bertuzzi has turned his season around, I feel a lot more confident with him, Domi, Mcann and a more seasoned Knies as our scoring depth than I did with Bunting, Kerfoot, Engvall and the like.


The whole lack of depth argument is actually funny right now because Keefe can solve it with a stroke of a marker. Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi have looked good together, a legit first line. This allows you to put either Nylander or Marner on their own line (and we know both love the puck and can drive their own lines), and just like that you have 3 dangerous lines. Voila, no more scoring depth issues.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Price did steal that series - you can look at the post-series metrics and it was comical how much the Habs were dominated. Again though, JT was out and as Fogel pointed out, Matthews was injured so that's a rather moot point.

Still an inferior opponent, supposedly, Who they did manage to beat 3 times, but couldn't manage to beat over 7 games. They finished last the year after.

I don't get why you don't consider an example of a 5-game Florida cherry picking but 13 games of TB you do consider cherry picking. Again, playoffs are short, rosters and opponents change, so virtually any playoff sampling can be called cherry-picking. It's a weird statement to make.

Because it fits much more in line with the idea these guys can't get it done in the playoffs.

It's not just 5 games vs. Florida, it's also 5 games vs. CBJ, 7 games vs. MTL and 7 more games vs. Boston in '19 prior to that.

Each one one of these series they had a lead and failed to put the series away.


Is all on the big guys? no. But at some point you've to look at them because the depth pieces have changes over that time, and to go back to the greater point, what you can put around them if effected by them.

And if you really look at how the past three cup winners have been built, you'll see why the Leafs have barely been able to get out of the first round.

You bring up Tampa game 7, 2-1 game to make a point (wouldn't this be cherry-picking too by your standards? 1-game sample? I digress). Do you remember who scored both goals for Tampa? Nick Paul. Do you know what he was making? About league minimum. Do you remember the other difference maker in that series? Corey Perry. Do you know what he was making?

Perry and Paul got a goal here and there, well done. But as I mentioned, it's not the only elimination game they've laid an egg in.

 

[Legion34]

Would Monahan or Stephenson be good 3c For next year?

 

[Kurtz]

With Hamilton I don't recall any smoke around him not wanting Canada, he just wanted to get paid. He left Calgary after signing long term because he "didn't fit the culture or style" of the Flames at the time. They wanted him out of Canada not the other way around. Love the guy or not, its hard to imagine the Leafs aren't measurably better giving him Justin Hole's minutes. They may have been interested but they could only afford $3.75M that summer for Kase and Ritchie which put them over the cap anyways.

When I look at the good deals the club has made I see assets spent on retention which weakened the clubs future. I see the 1st spent to offload Marlowe (yes he was Lou's add but the deal wasn't any issue until they added Tavares). I see some good players added to the absolute limit of the available cap space and I wonder what they might have done with another $5-6M to play with.

The worst case scenario is probably they don't spend a thing extra on cap driven moves and they make similar additions to what they had, But if they don't get AP maybe they get Toews from NYI or Walker from LA. Maybe they can afford bigger moves then two 3rd pairing guys to load up this year. Agreed certainly, the lack of cap only cost them a shot at Pietrangelo, not the player. But it isn't like only a $9M defenseman improves the club, they have been cutting corners all over the place for years. 8 more years of Mitch/Willie just keeps them poor enough to be tied to the original Dubas plan and not any more competitive then they have been.

Hamilton is a notorious loner and introvert, and that's just antithetical to a hockey locker room culture. I think he brings the culture problem wherever he goes because of that.

You could say they could only afford 3.75 for Kase and Ritchie because of the big 4...but I could also point out that they brought in a $4.5m reclamation project backup in Murray.

See, that's the crux of the issue, when Dubas had money to play with he'd give it away to the wrong guys. Treliving had the same issue in Calgary - go look at the list of all of the $3-5m guys he signed during his tenure there, it's a disaster. How would you like to be paying Coleman $5m/year for the next 4?

Or look at the list of guys Dubas signed for Pitt when he had some money to play with. You say you don't like paying $10 m to Marner? See how you like paying that to Rielly Smith+Ryan Graves.

 

[Kurtz]

Would Monahan or Stephenson be good 3c For next year?

Stephenson would be perfect, a very high-end #3 and even a #2 if JT goes to the wing. But he'll be expensive, lots of teams I'm sure in on him.

 

[Kurtz]

Perry and Paul got a goal here and there, well done. But as I mentioned, it's not the only elimination game they've laid an egg in.....

They didn't just "get a goal here and there", they got the game-winning and series winning goals, and they made an impact the entire series.

You seem to carry the expectation that 4 guys should be able to win you every game. It just doesn't work that way, you need some of the other 18 guys to step up on occasion. Other teams get this all the time.

Also, what's the commonality you're referring to when you say the last 3 Stanley Cup winners were built differently? Vegas, Colorado, TB x2, St Louis, Washington, Pitt, etc. All of those teams were built their own way. Only commonality I see is they were all strong down the middle. Good first-pairing dmen is another common thread, but imo our defensive core is no worse than Pitt's was when they took it.

 

[Rare Jewel]

They didn't just "get a goal here and there", they got the game-winning and series winning goals, and they made an impact the entire series.

You seem to carry the expectation that 4 guys should be able to win you every game. Unless one of those 4 is a goalie, that's just not a realistic expectation.

Well, when they're paid as such, should I not have higher expectations for them, rather than the depth guys?

The big guys should carry the mail.

Who got 66 points in 48 games throughout both of their cup runs?

 

[Kurtz]

Well, when they're paid as such, should I not have higher expectations for them, rather than the depth guys?

The big guys should carry the mail.

Who got 66 points in 48 games throughout both of their cup runs?

They do carry the mail though, that's the point (is that the term? I thought it was carry the water). Yeah it'd be nice if they dominated like Mcdavid or Mckinnon, but what they do deliver has been respectable. If we got any sort of contribution from the other guys eating the other 60% of the cap (Morgan aside) like the teams that make deep runs always seem to get, we'd be in business.

 

[Kurtz]

To be fair if Lou's two dollars were Matty and Mitch rather than Barzal and Horvat that club would probably be having much different results. Letting go of a Mitch still leaves Matthews and Nylander. How many clubs have a top 2 close that? This sounds a lot like the "if we got got rid of Nylander we would just be looking for another Nylander" argument. Except they wouldn't. No team except the Leafs is built around three primarily offense first forwards and a bunch of foot solders. It doesn't take a $36M spend on 3 forwards to win. We know this because the only club to try it is the Leafs and they haven't won.

Looking over the list of Stanley Cup winners, I would say most had 3-4 star forwards. 2 generally won't cut it - Pitt arguably had the top 2 forwards in the game for a spell, but couldn't get over the hump again until adding Kessel. Vegas and St Louis are the exceptions, but both those teams had stacked defenses that they'd built up over the course of years...we won't be able to replicate that merely with a little extra cap room.

 

[SprDaVE]

Would Monahan or Stephenson be good 3c For next year?

Stephenson will be outpriced by a team that has a big need for a center. He's not that great to me but he'll be paid like a top end 2nd line center. Monahan could be ok but I suspect he'll also get a bigger contract than expected as well.

I don't think this team needs a big center upgrade. Matthews and Tavares is still a very good 1-2 punch, even with Tavares regressing. We need to prioritize a RHD that can play a lot of tough minutes.

If Kampf sticks around, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does, this team probably doesn't have a major center need.

 

[Menzinger]

We don't actually know that. AP signed for $8.8M x 7 which the Leafs were many millions away from being able to match. Believe what you want but it isn't like the guy turned down $9.5M per with the usual insane Leaf front loading to come home like JT. The cap meant they were not ever in the bidding.

With Hamilton I don't recall any smoke around him not wanting Canada, he just wanted to get paid. He left Calgary after signing long term because he "didn't fit the culture or style" of the Flames at the time. They wanted him out of Canada not the other way around. Love the guy or not, its hard to imagine the Leafs aren't measurably better giving him Justin Hole's minutes. They may have been interested but they could only afford $3.75M that summer for Kase and Ritchie which put them over the cap anyways.

When I look at the good deals the club has made I see assets spent on retention which weakened the clubs future. I see the 1st spent to offload Marlowe (yes he was Lou's add but the deal wasn't any issue until they added Tavares). I see some good players added to the absolute limit of the available cap space and I wonder what they might have done with another $5-6M to play with.

The worst case scenario is probably they don't spend a thing extra on cap driven moves and they make similar additions to what they had, But if they don't get AP maybe they get Toews from NYI or Walker from LA. Maybe they can afford bigger moves then two 3rd pairing guys to load up this year. Agreed certainly, the lack of cap only cost them a shot at Pietrangelo, not the player. But it isn't like only a $9M defenseman improves the club, they have been cutting corners all over the place for years. 8 more years of Mitch/Willie just keeps them poor enough to be tied to the original Dubas plan and not any more competitive then they have been.

AP has played his entire career in the US, now has an American wife and American kids. Id be very surprised if he passed on a more favorable local tax situation, and warmer weather local in Nevada for Canada. I remember he gave an interview soon after signing about how much he and his wife liked the school options in Vegas, it seemed that more.thsn just raw $ determined their decision.

Hamilton id admit is a bigger question mark. But he also is a guy who doesn't seem to like the spotlight (especially in Calgary), so jumping feet first into the biggest media market in the hockey world doesn't strike me as something he'd enjoy.

So while ultimately it is true we can never know what those guys would have done in retrospect, what IS true is that just because the Leafs may have made a contract offer in an alternative history, neither guy would have guaranteed to sign.

 

[Rare Jewel]

They do carry the mail though, that's the point (is that the term? I thought it was carry the water). Yeah it'd be nice if they dominated like Mcdavid or Mckinnon, but what they do deliver has been respectable. If we got any sort of contribution from the other guys eating the other 60% of the cap (Morgan aside) like the teams that make deep runs always seem to get, we'd be in business.

Well, they're paid comparatively to those guys, but I won't belabor that. Those numbers are Kucherov's, by the way. So you don't have to be either Mc or Mac to do it.

But they don't even give them a chance for that because they can't get out of the first round.

So, the emphasis is that the depth of the issue is too simple for me, and it is there because it seems like a simple fix, even though they've changed it a few times actually.

The issue is the quality of depth, particularly the D core. That comparison is the real mismatch between this team and the most recent cup winners, and it requires more cap space than this team has allowed itself.


One of the only ways to do that is to trade a value piece, which gets you something + additional cap space to manage in other ways.

 

[Menzinger]

I disagree.

How many "high end" guys are up for contracts this year? We had Matthews, Nylander who are now locked up.

The only guys bordering on "star calibre" that remain unsigned are Jake Guentzel, Sam Reinhart, Noah Hanifin, and Filip Hronek (RFA). Pushing it, maybe you're into a Brady Skjei & Brett Pesce.

The reality is, everyone is going to have that extra $4m, and will be able to spend it improving their depth, so long as they limit the term to not interfere with their star players whenever those stars come up for contract.

I just don't see a scenario where middle tier guys suddenly get overpaid, at least to the point that is simply beyond the Leafs matching as your earlier post alluded to.

The historical trends don't really suggest those level of players eat up league cap raises. I think you'll potentially see a larger raise in those salary ranges in 2025-2026 once we've seen two back to back cap rising years.

We'll know either way in a few months

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[Stephen]

Off the top of my head, Alex Pietrangelo, Dougie Hamilton, and Adam Larsson could have all been signed to seriously improve the blueline.

I don't even think of the big fish, but of guys like Devon Toews, Hampus Lindholm, Mattias Ekholm, Filip Hronek, who exchanged hands in hockey deals over the past 3-4 years that could have changed the complexion of the blueline, or the Moneyball level adds of a Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour that fueled Florida's rise.

A blueline is only six regulars, so a little proactive managing during the decline of Brodie and Muzzin could have really helped.

 

[nuck]

Looking over the list of Stanley Cup winners, I would say most had 3-4 star forwards. 2 generally won't cut it - Pitt arguably had the top 2 forwards in the game for a spell, but couldn't get over the hump again until adding Kessel. Vegas and St Louis are the exceptions, but both those teams had stacked defenses that they'd built up over the course of years...we won't be able to replicate that merely with a little extra cap room.

Colorado was MacKinnon, $9.25 Ranta , $7M Landi $4.5M Kadri .
Vegas had Eichel, $9.5M Stone, $5.9M Karlsson, $5M Marchessault,
St Louis had $7.5M Tarasenko, $7M O'Reilly, $6.5M Schenn - 2nd leading playoff forward Schwartz Schwartz $5.35M
Washington had Ovi, $9.2M Backstrom, $7.8M Kuznetzov, $5.75M Oshie

I think its maybe stretching it a bit to call most of these guys stars. If your 3rd best forward is Kadri, Schwartz, Kessel or Marchessault that seems to be enough.

Hawks had Kane, Toews and a 61pt $5.25M Hossa.

Tampa may be the best comp for the Leafs forwards. Point was a 64pt forward making $6.75M for his first Tampa Cup along with $8.5M Stamkos and $9.5M Kucherov. supported by guys like Palat and Killorn. They could afford an all-star defenseman and peak Vasilevskiy because of the cost of their top forwards.

Its like these teams added an extra forward for the cost of 3 leaf forwards and won. Pittsburgh won by adding an $6.8M after retention Kessel. The common element is they had some high end guys on value deals. The Leafs have none.

I don't think the Leafs can follow any other clubs roadmap because of the decision to prepay for Stanley Cups. They just need a cheap goalie to come in and stand on his head every night and they have a chance. Hildeby?