GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[Fogelhund]

Your basic premise is flawed. The star players are not the ones failing every year, the problem is they're the only ones delivering. The star players carried us past TB last year, for example, but when they couldn't replicate that against Florida we had no one else who stepped up.

So what sense does it make to get rid of the only guys delivering?

Against Florida last year.

Matthews, 0 Goals, 2 assists in 5 games
Marner 1 goal, 2 assists,
Nylander 2 goals, 1 assist
Tavares 1 assist.

Personally, whether it's been the playoffs, or tough important games, our stars haven't been the best players on the ice, when it counted the most. We've changed all of the pieces around them, and still mostly get the same results. When we finally won a round, it was when they showed up finally against Tampa... like you said. They carried the team, as your best players should. When they failed to show, we lost... which is what has happened in the past too. In particular, our PP has fallen short in the playoffs, which is strictly under the control of the stars.

 

[Dreakmur]

They weed out the reactionary fans whose primary focus is on finding someone to blame rather than doing a genuine roster evaluation.

How many players have even been here for all the failures? Pretty tough to blame Tyler Bertuzzi for our loss to Montreal....

 

[TheShape]

They weed out the reactionary fans whose primary focus is on finding someone to blame rather than doing a genuine roster evaluation.

Who did I blame?

Important to remember that both of those types of fans are still fans.

People are allowed to enjoy the fandom as they see fit.

Whether it's a passion for winning it all, or as entertainment in the evening as an escape from the day, or even fans who just enjoy sports, win or lose, all are valid.

I get what you're saying, I don't lose sleep over this team by any means. I was more so speaking in regards to those who refuse to even entertain moving off/losing a core piece or question the idea. I reiterate, we've won nothing with these guys, it's a weird attachment.

What an odd statement.

As you see it, Paul.

 

[keonsbitterness]

What I've never understood is when fans say "we should keep our star players". If we rely on them and they fail every year, why? I'd be active on moving any of them but Matthews to change the mix, change the dynamic, change anything to allow a balanced team and not a top heavy team that isn't actually top heavy. The point of this is a cup, not a conference final which already seems unrealistic to expect. We're so deep into this run and we've plateaued in skill but not salary

Because it's very difficult for any GM to give up on that level of talent, it's difficult to get a good enough return in that kind of trade, and, now that they all have NMCs, it's now pointless to even think about a trade.

 

[aingefan]

Leafs are going to have to really HIT on their remaining cap spend.

It's easy, at this time of year, to say "go out, spend that money on Brett Pesce, Derek Roy"; and all will be good.

The reality is, Tyler Bertuzzi & John Klingberg cost us a combined $9.5m thisseason. Next year, expect to get that same quality while spending $10m+ with the cap increasing... we need to be prepared for the likelyhood that if we go out and spend that kind of money, we're probably going to be disappointed in at least 1 of the players we sign with that.



Not suggesting they're going to suck, simply that they admit that next year probably has to be a little bit of a "reset"; deal with rookie growing pains, invest your money in 1 guy that's going to be a long term solution on the blueline, rather than trying to fill out the lineup with depth.

They need to take the approach of, we want to win the 2026 Stanley Cup. Let's lay the groundwork for that today.

Sure, you’re saying the quality of additions are likely to be equally impactful as this years. I think that level of help redistributed is feasible tho.
I see three priorities: a rhd who can play with Mo, a third forward to pair with PH and WN to spread out the offence, and a backup goalie. There are limits to filling out all three spots sure, but that can still be done.
Mo can benefit from a steady-simple partner, or someone closer to his level. A low cost option or a pricier one. Spitballing, but say Hakanpaa or Roy.
Willy could benefit from someone with more of a defensive focus but who can keep up with him. Say Wennberg or Lindholm.
One from column A, one from column B.
And then what’s leftover for a backup goalie.
The concern about the market being tricky due to increased cap is fair, so you may have to borrow from one for the other, but I think it can be done.

 

[Kurtz]

Against Florida last year.

Matthews, 0 Goals, 2 assists in 5 games
Marner 1 goal, 2 assists,
Nylander 2 goals, 1 assist
Tavares 1 assist.

Personally, whether it's been the playoffs, or tough important games, our stars haven't been the best players on the ice, when it counted the most. We've changed all of the pieces around them, and still mostly get the same results. When we finally won a round, it was when they showed up finally against Tampa... like you said. They carried the team, as your best players should. When they failed to show, we lost... which is what has happened in the past too. In particular, our PP has fallen short in the playoffs, which is strictly under the control of the stars.

I disagree. Our top guys have been our best guys in every recent run, and they (along with Morgan) have been pretty much the only guys who showed up offensively.

You can't expect 4 guys to win your every series. If that's your baseline, you'll always be disappointed.

Take our loss to TB in '22 for example. In that series, our top 4 forwards put up a cumulative 30 points and were +5. Tampa's top 4 (Kuch, Stamkos, Point, Palat) put up a cumulative 21 points and were -11.

Yet we lost because their depth came through and ours didn't. Nick Paul and Corey Perry showed up when it mattered and our equivalents did not.

 

[Dreakmur]

Take our loss to TB in '22 for example. In that series, our top 4 forwards put up a cumulative 30 points and were +5. Tampa's top 4 (Kuch, Stamkos, Point, Palat) put up a cumulative 21 points and were -11.

Their top 4 forwards were paid a combined $30,050,000. Ours were paid $40,505,616. Our top-4 had to score a lot more to make up for handicapped depth due to cap issues.

Seems Tampa Bay used that extra 10,000,000 in cap space to buy 9 points elsewhere....

 

[Kurtz]

Their top 4 forwards were paid a combined $30,050,000. Ours were paid $40,505,616. Our top-4 had to score a lot more to make up for handicapped depth due to cap issues.

Ok, so our top 4 were paid 33% more and produced 43% more points. And outscored their top 4 at even strength by a significant margin (+5 vs -11). Seems like a fine deal.

What did Nick Paul and Corey make compared to say Kerfoot?

 

[seanlinden]

Sure, you’re saying the quality of additions are likely to be equally impactful as this years. I think that level of help redistributed is feasible tho.
I see three priorities: a rhd who can play with Mo, a third forward to pair with PH and WN to spread out the offence, and a backup goalie. There are limits to filling out all three spots sure, but that can still be done.
Mo can benefit from a steady-simple partner, or someone closer to his level. A low cost option or a pricier one. Spitballing, but say Hakanpaa or Roy.
Willy could benefit from someone with more of a defensive focus but who can keep up with him. Say Wennberg or Lindholm.
One from column A, one from column B.
And then what’s leftover for a backup goalie.
The concern about the market being tricky due to increased cap is fair, so you may have to borrow from one for the other, but I think it can be done.

Something else to consider, one of the guys likely on his way out -- TJ Brodie.

Let's not forget that Brodie, despite not having the most stellar season right now, has been an absolute rock for the Leafs over his time here. He's gotten pummelled in terms of difficulty of minutes, yet still manages to have a +16 rating; tied with McCabe & Jarnkrok, and bested only by Matthews & Marner.

Let's say the Leafs go out and get Matt Roy from Los Angeles. They're probably going to spend $6m to do so, and get TJ Brodie +10%.

So, that $19m in cap space, after you sign Roy (to replace Brodie), is down to $13m with 14 players signed.

$13m doesn't go very far after you resign Liljegren, Robertson, Domi. Assume those guys cost you $7.5m conservatively.... now left with $5.5m and 17 players under contract, only one of which is a goalie.

Even if you go "Samsonov calibre" at $4m, brings you up to 18 players and $1.5m in cap space... which is barely enough to ice a 20 man roster... nevermidn the 22 that most teams need to be able to run with.

TLDR? The Leafs could probably "run back" a similar team next year, replacing Brodie with a guy like Roy.... but Bertuzzi, Lyubushkin and Edmundson all completely out, un-replaced; and imagine Klingberg never existed.

 

[Dreakmur]

Ok, so our top 4 were paid 33% more and produced 43% more points. And outscored their top 4 at even strength by a significant margin (+5 vs -11). Seems like a fine deal.

What did Nick Paul and Corey make compared to say Kerfoot?

Is that how you think salaries work? An 80 point player is worth 80% of a 100 point player? Hmm

 

[Kurtz]

Is that how you think salaries work? An 80 point player is worth 80% of a 100 point player? Hmm

Not exactly, no. But you attempted to do some math, and I corrected you using your own logic, that's all.

I'll do a further correction of your point. You've suggested that the $10 mil salary difference was used to buy more points, when in fact the majority of it was simply eaten up by the difference in Vasilevsky and Campbell's contracts.

 

[Rare Jewel]

In case anyone missed it

The top College UFA Collin Graf is now free to sign with an NHL team

Collin Graf - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Collin Graf, 2002-09-21 Lincoln, MA, USA USA. Most recently in the AHL with San Jose Barracuda. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Interestingly, a few people in his own thread on the prospect board have mentioned that he was pretty underwhelming over the past weekend

Still, there seems to be a line-up for his signature, with the Pens, Bruins, and Rangers being the most frequently linked.

 

[Menzinger]

Leafs are going to have to really HIT on their remaining cap spend.

It's easy, at this time of year, to say "go out, spend that money on Brett Pesce, Derek Roy"; and all will be good.

The reality is, Tyler Bertuzzi & John Klingberg cost us a combined $9.5m thisseason. Next year, expect to get that same quality while spending $10m+ with the cap increasing... we need to be prepared for the likelyhood that if we go out and spend that kind of money, we're probably going to be disappointed in at least 1 of the players we sign with that.

Imo you're overestimating the impact that caprises have on support player contracts. The high end guys tend to adjust immediately, but bottom of the lineup deals take longer to adjust/reflect the changes.

 

[SprDaVE]

In case anyone missed it

The top College UFA Collin Graf is now free to sign with an NHL team

Collin Graf - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Collin Graf, 2002-09-21 Lincoln, MA, USA USA. Most recently in the AHL with San Jose Barracuda. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Interestingly, a few people in his own thread on the prospect board have mentioned that he was pretty underwhelming over the past weekend

Still, there seems to be a line-up for his signature, with the Pens, Bruins, and Rangers being the most frequently linked.

I do hope the Leafs are aggressive on that market. Getting Graf and Tsyplako could really give some good interesting cheap depth options into next season.

I'm also pretty interested in Eklind from the SHL and Jacob Quillan -- who is likely to go back to the NCAA for his senior year.

 

[Dreakmur]

Not exactly, no. But you attempted to do some math, and I corrected you using your own logic, that's all.

You used faulty logic to attempt to make a point, that's all.

I'll do a further correction of your point. You've suggested that the $10 mil salary difference was used to buy more points, when in fact the majority of it was simply eaten up by the difference in Vasilevsky and Campbell's contracts.

Shooting on the best goalie in the world probably impacts our depth's ability to score, right?

 

[Kurtz]

You used faulty logic to attempt to make a point, that's all.



Shooting on the best goalie in the world probably impacts our depth's ability to score, right?

Faulty how? Our stars outplayed theirs by a significant margin, that's a fact. More than the delta in their salaries would demand. What is the argument you were attempting to make there?

Did Vasilevsky look like the best goalie in the world in either series that we've played them? Our stars didn't seem to have any issue lighting him up.

 

[nuck]

Imo you're overestimating the impact that caprises have on support player contracts. The high end guys tend to adjust immediately, but bottom of the lineup deals take longer to adjust/reflect the changes.

I don't know if they will necessarily they will expect more, its that more clubs will now have a few million more to spend. If a team isn't in a year where their top players are eating up the cap bump on new deals, the money will get spent somewhere else. It isn't just player agents that drive up salaries, its the competition for the available UFAs from clubs that now have the necessary cap space to play.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Anybody know anything or remember anything about Igor Merezhko from his days in the WHL? Big 6'4 RHD who had a bunch of fights in junior. And produced reasonably well. Surprises me he went undrafted. Is his skating that bad?

Igor Merezhko - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Igor Merezhko, 1998-04-30 Kharkov, UKR Ukraine. Most recently in the Czechia with HC Plzen. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[Rare Jewel]

I do hope the Leafs are aggressive on that market. Getting Graf and Tsyplako could really give some good interesting cheap depth options into next season.

I'm also pretty interested in Eklind from the SHL and Jacob Quillan -- who is likely to go back to the NCAA for his senior year.

There are a few around, and they will at least try for Graf, but they think he'll ultimately sign for a big-market US team. TB or Vegas could be in there as well.

As you mentioned, his teammate Quillan is there, but Boston is the only team I've seen mentioned with him.

I posted a few pages back about Veremyev of CC, who I'd go for, but he may stay another year, given that he hasn't signed yet.


Euro-wise: Tysplakov is the big fish, but there are others.

Former CBJ Calvin Thurakauf is rumored to be looking to return to the NHL after a very good season in the NL.

Calvin Thürkauf - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Calvin Thürkauf, 1997-06-27 Zug, SUI Switzerland. Most recently in the NL with HC Lugano. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

CBJ currently holds his rights, but he'll be free on June 30th.

Jakub Rychlovský - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Jakub Rychlovský, 2001-08-07 Vrchlabi, CZE Czechia. Most recently in the AHL with Grand Rapids Griffins. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

Is another attracting attention.

Oskar Stål Lyrenäs - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Oskar Stål Lyrenäs, 1998-03-23 Umeå, SWE Sweden. Most recently in the SHL with HV71. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

The numbers may not look great, but the speed and the shot are there. If they miss out on Typsplakov, he would be a good alternative.


And the sneakiest one...

Alexander Suvorov - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Alexander Suvorov, 2002-11-30 Buda-Koshelyovo, BLR Belarus. Most recently in the VHL with SKA-Neva St. Petersburg. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

With the KHL timing and contracts are everything. Suvorov didn't play this past season due to a shoulder injury, but that wouldn't stop me from looking into this one very hard. He has no contract as of now, which means he could sign with an NHL club now, and beating a potential Kuzmenko-like derby for him in the coming years would be preferable.

Sign him, then loan him back to a KHL for a year.

 

[SprDaVE]

Anybody know anything or remember anything about Igor Merezhko from his days in the WHL? Big 6'4 RHD who had a bunch of fights in junior. And produced reasonably well. Surprises me he went undrafted. Is his skating that bad?

Igor Merezhko - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Igor Merezhko, 1998-04-30 Kharkov, UKR Ukraine. Most recently in the Czechia with HC Plzen. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

He hasn't really played in a top pro league at all in his career. Went from the WHL to the VHL to Denmark then Slovakia... Not overly impressive. I can't say I know him though.

 

[Rare Jewel]

He hasn't really played in a top pro league at all in his career. Went from the WHL to the VHL to Denmark then Slovakia... Not overly impressive. I can't say I know him though.

No, he hasn't, but who knows?

It's too bad Ukraine isn't in the A pool at the WC. They're not even in the B pool, actually.

 

[LeafChief]

Y'all need to relax and come back down to earth. The team is playing well and some of you are having an absolute meltdown.

No matter how smart you think you are [MOD], your posts are going to effect jack-shit of how this team performs.

Enjoy the ride. Lets cheer on our boys. Go Leafs Go.

 

[Rare Jewel]

No matter how smart you think you are [MOD], your posts are going to effect jack-shit of how this team performs.

I don't think anyone posts with that in mind. But this is a forum where discussion about Hockey takes place, so in the spirit of that, perhaps we can get away with it.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

He hasn't really played in a top pro league at all in his career. Went from the WHL to the VHL to Denmark then Slovakia... Not overly impressive. I can't say I know him though.

I will say, I'm not a fan of Boosh. So based solely on stats. I'd say this guys is better offensively, and IMO, couldn't be worse defensively. So unless his skating is Allison like, I'd love to see this guy at camp next season. FWIW, to me Boosh can hit and skate, and doesn't do much else. This is what separates Edmonson from Boosh. Edmonson has that defensive awareness and ability to use his stick, while also punishing physically.

 

[SprDaVE]

Ugh