GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[TheShape]

He will feel disrespected, say no, and then head straight to UFA next year to get every single last dollar he can.

So at that point the relationship is damaged, so why not screw over the team that is disrespecting you?

Almost every NMC player that gets traded either requests a trade themselves, or will only go to a team that is in a better situation to win the cup.

Then he can walk to free agency and we take the 11m + cap jump to reshuffle the roster. Mitch Marner isn't some generational player we need to cater to that's worth moving mountains for.

If a number works for both sides I'm sure the club will find a deal, if not, we move forward. This model hasn't worked and probably won't work again this year, we shouldn't be married to this core who haven't won a thing.

 

[seanlinden]

I don't think we can punt a year with our big guys in there primes, I don't mind giving opportunities to the kids up front but they have to deserve there spot in the lineup


I don't think we can pencil Liljegren into that spot, there's still questions over his ability to take top 4 minutes

Right now..... the Leafs are fairly firmly a mid-pack playoff team.

They're going into a year where the rest of the league is getting another $4m in cap space to spend; but they've got $2m LESS than everyone else after giving raises to Matthews & Nylander.

Sure, they've got $19.2m in cap space; but their current roster for next year includes:

- Only 13 players signed, including 1 goalie.
- Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi, TJ Brodie, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Ilya Samsonov all UFAs.
- Timothy Liljegren, Connor Dewar and Nick Robertson as RFAs.

Let's assume that conservatively, they resign Domi at $4m x 3 years, Liljegren at $2m x 2 years, and they go out and get a different goalie that costs them $4m to pair with Woll.

Now, they'd have $9m of cap space, with 16 players under contract. That means you can acquire 1 guy at around $5m, and the rest need to be fairly close to league minimum. I'd much rather go out and get "the right defenceman", get a bunch of short-term fillers that we'll be looking to replace / upgrade on the year after when cap space opens up.

As for Liljegren in the top 4, you're probably right that pencilling him in there is a risk, but the reality is that they're probably not going to have a choice.

 

[aingefan]

The way I look at it...next year is going to be a setback one for the Leafs.

The mid-tier players in this league that are upcoming UFAs are going to get PAID with the cap jumping, but the Leafs already over-committed their cap increase to Matthews & Nylander.

They've gotta start building and focusing on 25-26, which to me, would mean that you shoudl probably cash out on the positive value that Jarnkrok likely holds, accumulating draft picks.

Get Robertson, Knies, Minten and Cowan into the lineup on a full time, and meaningful basis. Bobby McMann should have a spot. There's 9 / 12 spots spoken for with the big 4. If Max Domi wants to sign a 3-year deal at reasonable money, you probably do that and maybe move on from David Kampf as well.

Spend the limited cap dollars the Leafs have on finding a real, long term solution on the right side of their D.

Come back the year after with all these young guys having experienced a year of development, and with a bunch of cap space freed up by John Tavares.

How big of a setback are you predicting?
I can’t see this group (core four, Mo, Woll, the couple vets, the five kid forwards all likely to improve, the three D under control) falling that far. There’s still some 19 mil to spend to fill some gaps. The incentive of having the core in their prime, MM and McCabe and JT in contract years, and an already traded first. I can’t see a big setback with that framework. I don’t think they go Buffalo.

 

[aingefan]

I feel like the once in a century COVID outbreak isn't a high likelihood this time



We have to pay him now though, I'm not comfortable giving him top 4 money and that's what he's going to be wanting
Liljegren hasn't proven he can do that yet



I don't think we can punt a year with our big guys in there primes, I don't mind giving opportunities to the kids up front but they have to deserve there spot in the lineup


I don't think we can pencil Liljegren into that spot, there's still questions over his ability to take top 4 minutes

I get that there’s questions, but if you have faith in the player and his potential, this is a buy-low opportunity.

 

[seanlinden]

How big of a setback are you predicting?
I can’t see this group (core four, Mo, Woll, the couple vets, the five kid forwards all likely to improve, the three D under control) falling that far. There’s still some 19 mil to spend to fill some gaps. The incentive of having the core in their prime, MM and McCabe and JT in contract years, and an already traded first. I can’t see a big setback with that framework. I don’t think they go Buffalo.

I would imagine that they're probably going to be battling for a playoff spot most of the year with Ottawa, Detroit, and maybe Buffalo.

Tavares is slowing down every year. Matthews, Nylander and Marner don't really have all that "much more to give".

You're likely to lose Bertuzzi, without any form of replacement. Holmberg, McMann, call me crazy but I don't think they've got all that much upside left. You'll hope for Nick Robertson to cement himself and pot 25; but beyond that, the Leafs will need to spend their money on D.

 

[Magic Man]

Liljegren's next contract should buy some UFA years, a 2 year deal walks him to FA. 4M per for 5 years. Covers ages 25-30. Buys 3 UFA years. The Sandin contract is a comparable, but that contract was an overpayment, so there is a natural adjustment for Liljegren.

 

[aingefan]

I would imagine that they're probably going to be battling for a playoff spot most of the year with Ottawa, Detroit, and maybe Buffalo.

Tavares is slowing down every year. Matthews, Nylander and Marner don't really have all that "much more to give".

You're likely to lose Bertuzzi, without any form of replacement. Holmberg, McMann, call me crazy but I don't think they've got all that much upside left. You'll hope for Nick Robertson to cement himself and pot 25; but beyond that, the Leafs will need to spend their money on D.

Alright, you’re crazy (; But I get what you’re saying - there’s definitely gotta be some smart choices with the remaining budget and good hits.
I’m a bit more optimistic projecting the guys in house. I agree that NickRob can pot 25 if you let him play - he’s starting to show his greasy side more and more. McMann can probably reproduce what he’s doing here now. I personally think the team is sleeping on Pontus - we’ve seen his production spikes with better players, and he was the SHL playoff MVP a few years back. I think if you play him with Willy, he’s an easy 50 point guy. Knies has another gear too, I think -this year he’s adjusting to a much more serious grind. JT slowing some is legit, but maybe you milk the best out of him putting him with guys who can match his more grinding style.
Maybe there’s a slight dip, sure. I just don’t see too much quicksand there to sink too far below their current tier.

Liljegren's next contract should buy some UFA years, a 2 year deal walks him to FA. 4M per for 5 years. Covers ages 25-30. Buys 3 UFA years. The Sandin contract is a comparable, but that contract was an overpayment, so there is a natural adjustment for Liljegren.

I also think Lili is the more humble guy and more likely to sign a friendly deal.

 

[TMLAM34]

I think you can definitely keep Bertuzzi and Domi. There would have to be some sacrifice from both sides… Bertuzzi 5x5 and Domi 3x3. Both players get term on their deals. Re-sign Liljegren and Edmundson at around 2.5 million per.

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
McMann - Tavares - Marner
Knies - ________ - Nylander
________ - Dewar - Holmberg

Rielly - ________
McCabe - Liljegren
Benoit - Edmundson

Woll - ________

12.35 -ish million left to fill in the four spots.

Minten is a possibility for the fourth line moving Dewar to the left wing.

I’d look into acquiring Blackwood at 50% retained making him cost just under 1.2 million.

I’d then look into acquiring McBain using Robertson and whatever else it takes. McBain’s cap hit is 1.6 million.

It would allow us to then focus on signing someone like Roy 6x6.

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
McMann - Tavares - Marner
Knies - McBain - Nylander
Dewar - Minten - Holmberg

Rielly - Roy
McCabe - Liljegren
Benoit - Edmundson

Woll - Blackwood

 

[TheShape]

Liljegren's next contract should buy some UFA years, a 2 year deal walks him to FA. 4M per for 5 years. Covers ages 25-30. Buys 3 UFA years. The Sandin contract is a comparable, but that contract was an overpayment, so there is a natural adjustment for Liljegren.

Tre has all the leverage with Liljegren here and will have to use it accordingly. I like the player, but not at top 4 money, if that's his ask and he sticks to it, I'm not opposed to trading Lilly, but that return will have to be spot on.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Minimalist off-season

Alternate option would be to sign Tanev instead of Edmundson, if he was willing to take a reasonable deal like 1 year 4-4.5M

 

[Kiwi]

Right now..... the Leafs are fairly firmly a mid-pack playoff team.

They're going into a year where the rest of the league is getting another $4m in cap space to spend; but they've got $2m LESS than everyone else after giving raises to Matthews & Nylander.

Sure, they've got $19.2m in cap space; but their current roster for next year includes:

- Only 13 players signed, including 1 goalie.
- Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi, TJ Brodie, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Ilya Samsonov all UFAs.
- Timothy Liljegren, Connor Dewar and Nick Robertson as RFAs.

Let's assume that conservatively, they resign Domi at $4m x 3 years, Liljegren at $2m x 2 years, and they go out and get a different goalie that costs them $4m to pair with Woll.

Now, they'd have $9m of cap space, with 16 players under contract. That means you can acquire 1 guy at around $5m, and the rest need to be fairly close to league minimum. I'd much rather go out and get "the right defenceman", get a bunch of short-term fillers that we'll be looking to replace / upgrade on the year after when cap space opens up.

As for Liljegren in the top 4, you're probably right that pencilling him in there is a risk, but the reality is that they're probably not going to have a choice.

The team is still to good to suck, your just wasting a year and we have literally zero picks so we get no benefit from it

Our RFAS will be cheap or have some value if we trade them, we've got some young guys coming or already integrating into the team and I'm not to worried about that crop of UFAS either way, we're not in a bad position

I get that there’s questions, but if you have faith in the player and his potential, this is a buy-low opportunity.

I don't, he hasn't been able to prove he deserves any benefit of the doubt

 

[seanlinden]

Alright, you’re crazy (; But I get what you’re saying - there’s definitely gotta be some smart choices with the remaining budget and good hits.
I’m a bit more optimistic projecting the guys in house. I agree that NickRob can pot 25 if you let him play - he’s starting to show his greasy side more and more. McMann can probably reproduce what he’s doing here now. I personally think the team is sleeping on Pontus - we’ve seen his production spikes with better players, and he was the SHL playoff MVP a few years back. I think if you play him with Willy, he’s an easy 50 point guy. Knies has another gear too, I think -this year he’s adjusting to a much more serious grind. JT slowing some is legit, but maybe you milk the best out of him putting him with guys who can match his more grinding style.
Maybe there’s a slight dip, sure. I just don’t see too much quicksand there to sink too far below their current tier.


I also think Lili is the more humble guy and more likely to sign a friendly deal.

Leafs are going to have to really HIT on their remaining cap spend.

It's easy, at this time of year, to say "go out, spend that money on Brett Pesce, Derek Roy"; and all will be good.

The reality is, Tyler Bertuzzi & John Klingberg cost us a combined $9.5m thisseason. Next year, expect to get that same quality while spending $10m+ with the cap increasing... we need to be prepared for the likelyhood that if we go out and spend that kind of money, we're probably going to be disappointed in at least 1 of the players we sign with that.

The team is still to good to suck, your just wasting a year and we have literally zero picks so we get no benefit from it

Our RFAS will be cheap or have some value if we trade them, we've got some young guys coming or already integrating into the team and I'm not to worried about that crop of UFAS either way, we're not in a bad position


I don't, he hasn't been able to prove he deserves any benefit of the doubt

Not suggesting they're going to suck, simply that they admit that next year probably has to be a little bit of a "reset"; deal with rookie growing pains, invest your money in 1 guy that's going to be a long term solution on the blueline, rather than trying to fill out the lineup with depth.

They need to take the approach of, we want to win the 2026 Stanley Cup. Let's lay the groundwork for that today.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

What I've never understood is when fans say "we should keep our star players". If we rely on them and they fail every year, why? I'd be active on moving any of them but Matthews to change the mix, change the dynamic, change anything to allow a balanced team and not a top heavy team that isn't actually top heavy. The point of this is a cup, not a conference final which already seems unrealistic to expect. We're so deep into this run and we've plateaued in skill but not salary

 

[SprDaVE]

Liljegren's next contract should buy some UFA years, a 2 year deal walks him to FA. 4M per for 5 years. Covers ages 25-30. Buys 3 UFA years. The Sandin contract is a comparable, but that contract was an overpayment, so there is a natural adjustment for Liljegren.

His recent injury really put a big dent on this. But I would quite easily give him term. 5 years at 4M per seems like a pretty solid deal.

 

[ToneDog]

What I've never understood is when fans say "we should keep our star players". If we rely on them and they fail every year, why? I'd be active on moving any of them but Matthews to change the mix, change the dynamic, change anything to allow a balanced team and not a top heavy team that isn't actually top heavy. The point of this is a cup, not a conference final which already seems unrealistic to expect. We're so deep into this run and we've plateaued in skill but not salary

Only the insane think the answer is to keep paying these guys and running it back because eventually they will win. Unfortunately Shanny is the leader of this insane group. This summer Tre will have $2m fewer dollars to fill out the roster and a one year older Tavares. Sorry, not winning anything until Tavares is off the books and/or there is a major shakeup IMO.

 

[nuck]

He will feel disrespected, say no, and then head straight to UFA next year to get every single last dollar he can.

So at that point the relationship is damaged, so why not screw over the team that is disrespecting you?

Almost every NMC player that gets traded either requests a trade themselves, or will only go to a team that is in a better situation to win the cup.

I think if he felt that disrespected he wouldn't stew on the Leafs all next season, he would waive to move right away. If his reaction is "screw you guys I'm leaving" I can't see him hanging around for another year just to twist the knife a bit. There is being pissy and then there is wasting a year of your life in a plot to get revenge while screwing over your team mates by hurting their chances as you leave.

If the club licks the bag again in the playoffs you have to figure the big 3 know there are serious changes coming. If they don't, the club has a much bigger problem than MMs next deal. And should Shanahan somehow survive another playoff fail he must have a clue by now that the Dubas plan for cap allocation isn't working. He is a dense man but eventually the thickest individual will pull his finger out of the light socket after enough pain.

Willies deal cost them a chance for any positional upgrades next season. So are they prepared to write off 24-25 to wait for some post Tavares cap flexibility? Does Shanny have the job security to do that? If they have a great playoff there is no question they will keep the band together. But even if they have a weak playoff and Mitch wants $12.5M+ would they consider a change?

This is the 10th best team in the league even with the talent they have. I don't get how removing one player (any one player) is going to make them worse than 10th when there isn't half a dozen teams who have a top 2 to match the Leafs. I am fine if they move on from Mitch because I place a high value on what could be done with $12M in cap space for the next 8 years. I would have been finer if they had dealt Willie but that is sunk money now. The idea that they have to win a trade when they can't win a round places an unrealistic value on individual scoring stats.

Of course a big playoff solves everything.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Leafs are going to have to really HIT on their remaining cap spend.

It's easy, at this time of year, to say "go out, spend that money on Brett Pesce, Derek Roy"; and all will be good.

The reality is, Tyler Bertuzzi & John Klingberg cost us a combined $9.5m thisseason. Next year, expect to get that same quality while spending $10m+ with the cap increasing... we need to be prepared for the likelyhood that if we go out and spend that kind of money, we're probably going to be disappointed in at least 1 of the players we sign with that.



Not suggesting they're going to suck, simply that they admit that next year probably has to be a little bit of a "reset"; deal with rookie growing pains, invest your money in 1 guy that's going to be a long term solution on the blueline, rather than trying to fill out the lineup with depth.

They need to take the approach of, we want to win the 2026 Stanley Cup. Let's lay the groundwork for that today.

Yeah, I’m expecting a 2019-20 type roster next year. Much more flexibility in 2025-26.

 

[TheShape]

What I've never understood is when fans say "we should keep our star players". If we rely on them and they fail every year, why? I'd be active on moving any of them but Matthews to change the mix, change the dynamic, change anything to allow a balanced team and not a top heavy team that isn't actually top heavy. The point of this is a cup, not a conference final which already seems unrealistic to expect. We're so deep into this run and we've plateaued in skill but not salary

Threads like these really weed out the fans who want to win compared to ones who mainly want to be entertained by their favourite Leafs players, winning is secondary.

 

[Kurtz]

What I've never understood is when fans say "we should keep our star players". If we rely on them and they fail every year, why? I'd be active on moving any of them but Matthews to change the mix, change the dynamic, change anything to allow a balanced team and not a top heavy team that isn't actually top heavy. The point of this is a cup, not a conference final which already seems unrealistic to expect. We're so deep into this run and we've plateaued in skill but not salary

Your basic premise is flawed. The star players are not the ones failing every year, the problem is they're the only ones delivering. The star players carried us past TB last year, for example, but when they couldn't replicate that against Florida we had no one else who stepped up.

So what sense does it make to get rid of the only guys delivering?

Now you can argue the star players salaries are preventing us from rounding out our roster properly, but 1) that issue will resolve itself in a year, when JT is off the books and 2) you're assuming that we'll be able to re-invest the money that would otherwise go to say Mitch wisely, when history shows that both Dubas and Tre (in Calgary) had a tendency to invest in a multitude of mediocre $3-4m players that didn't help the team.

Threads like these really weed out the fans who want to win compared to ones who mainly want to be entertained by their favourite Leafs players, winning is secondary.

They weed out the reactionary fans whose primary focus is on finding someone to blame rather than doing a genuine roster evaluation.

 

[ULF_55]

Why not dump them instead or as well?

Matthews maybe.
He won't commit to the team.

 

[ULF_55]

Threads like these really weed out the fans who want to win compared to ones who mainly want to be entertained by their favourite Leafs players, winning is secondary.

Yeah, I saw them win.

So for the last few decades it's about the players.

 

[ULF_55]

Right now..... the Leafs are fairly firmly a mid-pack playoff team.

They're going into a year where the rest of the league is getting another $4m in cap space to spend; but they've got $2m LESS than everyone else after giving raises to Matthews & Nylander.

Sure, they've got $19.2m in cap space; but their current roster for next year includes:

- Only 13 players signed, including 1 goalie.
- Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi, TJ Brodie, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Ilya Samsonov all UFAs.
- Timothy Liljegren, Connor Dewar and Nick Robertson as RFAs.

Let's assume that conservatively, they resign Domi at $4m x 3 years, Liljegren at $2m x 2 years, and they go out and get a different goalie that costs them $4m to pair with Woll.

Now, they'd have $9m of cap space, with 16 players under contract. That means you can acquire 1 guy at around $5m, and the rest need to be fairly close to league minimum. I'd much rather go out and get "the right defenceman", get a bunch of short-term fillers that we'll be looking to replace / upgrade on the year after when cap space opens up.

As for Liljegren in the top 4, you're probably right that pencilling him in there is a risk, but the reality is that they're probably not going to have a choice.

Yes, they have to prove their scouting staff's worth.

If they have to rely on expensive vet rentals, they've failed.

ELSC are key, and if they can't then just enjoy to stars.

 

[uncleben]

Threads like these really weed out the fans who want to win compared to ones who mainly want to be entertained by their favourite Leafs players, winning is secondary.

Important to remember that both of those types of fans are still fans.

People are allowed to enjoy the fandom as they see fit.

Whether it's a passion for winning it all, or as entertainment in the evening as an escape from the day, or even fans who just enjoy sports, win or lose, all are valid.

 

[kb]

Important to realize that both of those types of fans are still fans.

People are allowed to enjoy the fandom as they see fit.

Whether it's a passion for winning it all, or as entertainment in the evening as an escape from the day, or even fans who just enjoy sports, win or lose, all are valid.

I just wonder why fans seem to be hard wired to be in one of the 2 camps.

I'm in both. I enjoy what we have - it's very rare - but I have a passion for seeing them winning it all - at all costs.

 

[ACC1224]

Threads like these really weed out the fans who want to win compared to ones who mainly want to be entertained by their favourite Leafs players, winning is secondary.

What an odd statement.