GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[seanlinden]

With the way Bertuzzi has turned his season around, I feel a lot more confident with him, Domi, Mcann and a more seasoned Knies as our scoring depth than I did with Bunting, Kerfoot, Engvall and the like.


The whole lack of depth argument is actually funny right now because Keefe can solve it with a stroke of a marker. Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi have looked good together, a legit first line. This allows you to put either Nylander or Marner on their own line (and we know both love the puck and can drive their own lines), and just like that you have 3 dangerous lines. Voila, no more scoring depth issues.

While i agree with you, it's also a little bit of "revisionist history". They traded Engvall mid-season.

Tyler Bertuzzi has essentially given us Michael Bunting. He'll likely finish in the low 20s for goals and assists. Bunting finished his 2nd year with the Leafs having 23g / 26a.

Domi; I guess the closest comparable from a "position" standpoint would be ROR.... but ROR is still a far better player than Domi is, considering his all-around game.

McMann I think you've gotta compare to somebody like Acciari; whereas Kerfoot's comparable from a roster standpoint would likely be Holmberg. Different players forsure, not neccessarily sure that they're "better".


That being said, I do agree with you in that the Leafs depth issues should be resolvable by simply putting the big 3 on 3 separate lines.

Personally, I'd treat them as pairs -- Matthews and Domi (probably a Jarnkrok or Knies with them), Marner & Tavares (probably a McMann with them), and Nylander and Bertuzzi (probably a Holmberg or Dewar with them).

The problem is, you could have made the same argument for a number of years prior to this one. Kerfoot was always a decent centre for Nylander when they played together. Marner & Tavares always had some chemistry, and Matthews has basically been good enough to play with anyone. The reality is, they don't have the commitment to do it.

This year, one of the big problems the Leafs have is that the only guy they can use as a "matchup" centre is Auston Matthews. Tavares has lost too much footspeed. Domi has never been spectacular defensively. Kampf, Dewar, Holmberg & Gregor really aren't up to the task. At least last year, you had ROR to do that kind of lifting.

 

[seanlinden]

Looking over the list of Stanley Cup winners, I would say most had 3-4 star forwards. 2 generally won't cut it - Pitt arguably had the top 2 forwards in the game for a spell, but couldn't get over the hump again until adding Kessel. Vegas and St Louis are the exceptions, but both those teams had stacked defenses that they'd built up over the course of years...we won't be able to replicate that merely with a little extra cap room.

Yeah, most teams will have 3-4 "star" forwards,... the difference is... those star forwards don't take up $46m in cap space.

The problem isn't that you can't win with Matthews, Marner, Tavares & Nylander as your "core 4" - the problem is that you can't win with those 4 guys when none of them are "underpaid" or on spectacularily good deals.

Tavares & Stamkos are farily comparable players. Tavares makes $2.5m more.

Brayden point signed a "somewhat normal" 2nd contract at $6.75m AFTER putting up a 41 goal, 92 point season to finish his ELC. Mitch Marner put up a 26 goal, 94 point season to finish his ELC, and signed for $11m. Sure, the Leafs got 3 extra years vs. Point, but even when it came time for renewal, and it was only 1 RFA year being lumped into the deal. Point only signed for $9.5m x 8.

Auston Matthews has been making $11.6m; whereas Nikita Kucherov hads been at $9.5m.

Yeah, we've had Nylander at $7m. They had Killorn at $4.5m and Palat at $5.3m.

Let's just focus on those "big 3" for a moment. Figure that Matthews being a centre is a little more valuable than Kucherov, and Point being a centre a little more valuable than Marner; but overall, the trio should have probably been paid the same. Tavares got $2.5m more than Stammer. Matthews got $2m more than Kucherov, and Marner $4.5m more than Point. That's a $9m delta.... easily the difference between Alex Pietrangelo and Travis Dermott; still with some money left over to spend elsehwere.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yeah, most teams will have 3-4 "star" forwards,... the difference is... those star forwards don't take up $46m in cap space.

The problem isn't that you can't win with Matthews, Marner, Tavares & Nylander as your "core 4" - the problem is that you can't win with those 4 guys when none of them are "underpaid" or on spectacularily good deals.

Tavares & Stamkos are farily comparable players. Tavares makes $2.5m more.

Brayden point signed a "somewhat normal" 2nd contract at $6.75m AFTER putting up a 41 goal, 92 point season to finish his ELC. Mitch Marner put up a 26 goal, 94 point season to finish his ELC, and signed for $11m. Sure, the Leafs got 3 extra years vs. Point, but even when it came time for renewal, and it was only 1 RFA year being lumped into the deal. Point only signed for $9.5m x 8.

Auston Matthews has been making $11.6m; whereas Nikita Kucherov hads been at $9.5m.

Yeah, we've had Nylander at $7m. They had Killorn at $4.5m and Palat at $5.3m.

Let's just focus on those "big 3" for a moment. Figure that Matthews being a centre is a little more valuable than Kucherov, and Point being a centre a little more valuable than Marner; but overall, the trio should have probably been paid the same. Tavares got $2.5m more than Stammer. Matthews got $2m more than Kucherov, and Marner $4.5m more than Point. That's a $9m delta.... easily the difference between Alex Pietrangelo and Travis Dermott; still with some money left over to spend elsehwere.

Or you can just replace Kerfoot, Brodie, and Engvall with cheap options and get that same 9m. We enough had money available in the Pietrangelo UFA season, we spent it on Brodie instead. Florida went to the cup final with almost that amount in dead buyout cap + Knight in the player assistance program.

Spending cap on the wrong players has done us infinitely more harm than not having enough cap to spend. The vast majority of players worth the money aren’t getting picked up in UFA, you’re either drafting or trading for them and the cap is an afterthought.

 

[seanlinden]

Or you can just replace Kerfoot, Brodie, and Engvall with cheap options and get that same 9m. We enough had money available in the Pietrangelo UFA season, we spent it on Brodie instead. Florida went to the cup final with almost that amount in dead buyout cap + Knight in the player assistance program.

Spending cap on the wrong players has done us infinitely more harm than not having enough cap to spend. The vast majority of players worth the money aren’t getting picked up in UFA, you’re either drafting or trading for them and the cap is an afterthought.

It really doesn't work that way. No team goes in with entirely ELCs and league minimum players. The culture of "haves and have nots" is one of our biggest problems.

No team is going to be perfect on their mid-tier additions. The key is, that with a mid-tier addition who doesn't fit, it's easy to swap them out. Engvall was traded in order to accomodate the additons we made at the deadliine last year. Kerfoot probably would have suffered the same fate, except as I recall we had somebody on the LTIR meaning we didn't need to move Kerfoot to bring in ROR. Don't forget, Kerfoot was the #3C to start that year.

As for Brodie, had the Leafs had a legit shot at Pietrangelo, they could have easily moved Brodie. The problem is / was, they'd still have had to come up with the additional $4m in cap space. (and of course that Pietrangelo chose Vegas)

 

[Martin Skoula]

It really doesn't work that way. No team goes in with entirely ELCs and league minimum players. The culture of "haves and have nots" is one of our biggest problems.

No team is going to be perfect on their mid-tier additions. The key is, that with a mid-tier addition who doesn't fit, it's easy to swap them out. Engvall was traded in order to accomodate the additons we made at the deadliine last year. Kerfoot probably would have suffered the same fate, except as I recall we had somebody on the LTIR meaning we didn't need to move Kerfoot to bring in ROR. Don't forget, Kerfoot was the #3C to start that year.

As for Brodie, had the Leafs had a legit shot at Pietrangelo, they could have easily moved Brodie. The problem is / was, they'd still have had to come up with the additional $4m in cap space.

No literally every cup contender uses rookies and cheap contracts in bottom-9 roles, nor is anyone saying to run core 4 + ELCs as a roster. We have one of the most expensive bottom-6s when healthy, I think it’s just Dallas with more spent, Vegas if you count a guy like Karlsson bottom 6 but then they’re running cheap deals in the top-6.

Brodie signed for 5 the same offseason Pietrangelo signed for 8.9, it’s literally one Kerfoot+Engvall difference. If he wanted to come to Toronto for 8.9 nothing was stopping us.

 

[Kurtz]

While i agree with you, it's also a little bit of "revisionist history". They traded Engvall mid-season.

Tyler Bertuzzi has essentially given us Michael Bunting. He'll likely finish in the low 20s for goals and assists. Bunting finished his 2nd year with the Leafs having 23g / 26a.

Domi; I guess the closest comparable from a "position" standpoint would be ROR.... but ROR is still a far better player than Domi is, considering his all-around game.

McMann I think you've gotta compare to somebody like Acciari; whereas Kerfoot's comparable from a roster standpoint would likely be Holmberg. Different players forsure, not neccessarily sure that they're "better".


That being said, I do agree with you in that the Leafs depth issues should be resolvable by simply putting the big 3 on 3 separate lines.

Personally, I'd treat them as pairs -- Matthews and Domi (probably a Jarnkrok or Knies with them), Marner & Tavares (probably a McMann with them), and Nylander and Bertuzzi (probably a Holmberg or Dewar with them).

The problem is, you could have made the same argument for a number of years prior to this one. Kerfoot was always a decent centre for Nylander when they played together. Marner & Tavares always had some chemistry, and Matthews has basically been good enough to play with anyone. The reality is, they don't have the commitment to do it.

This year, one of the big problems the Leafs have is that the only guy they can use as a "matchup" centre is Auston Matthews. Tavares has lost too much footspeed. Domi has never been spectacular defensively. Kampf, Dewar, Holmberg & Gregor really aren't up to the task. At least last year, you had ROR to do that kind of lifting.

Good point, I completely forgot about ROR. The guy was a ghost against Florida and escaped all blame.

Yeah, most teams will have 3-4 "star" forwards,... the difference is... those star forwards don't take up $46m in cap space.

The problem isn't that you can't win with Matthews, Marner, Tavares & Nylander as your "core 4" - the problem is that you can't win with those 4 guys when none of them are "underpaid" or on spectacularily good deals.

Tavares & Stamkos are farily comparable players. Tavares makes $2.5m more.

Brayden point signed a "somewhat normal" 2nd contract at $6.75m AFTER putting up a 41 goal, 92 point season to finish his ELC. Mitch Marner put up a 26 goal, 94 point season to finish his ELC, and signed for $11m. Sure, the Leafs got 3 extra years vs. Point, but even when it came time for renewal, and it was only 1 RFA year being lumped into the deal. Point only signed for $9.5m x 8.

Auston Matthews has been making $11.6m; whereas Nikita Kucherov hads been at $9.5m.

Yeah, we've had Nylander at $7m. They had Killorn at $4.5m and Palat at $5.3m.

Let's just focus on those "big 3" for a moment. Figure that Matthews being a centre is a little more valuable than Kucherov, and Point being a centre a little more valuable than Marner; but overall, the trio should have probably been paid the same. Tavares got $2.5m more than Stammer. Matthews got $2m more than Kucherov, and Marner $4.5m more than Point. That's a $9m delta.... easily the difference between Alex Pietrangelo and Travis Dermott; still with some money left over to spend elsehwere.

Look, I think we can all agree that the real problem in our big 4 is JT. The other guys I would say are living up to their contracts. But there's no reason to spill tears over it - it's a sunk cost that will resolve itself in a year. Trying to fix that problem by moving one of the guys who are living up to their deal makes no sense to me.

 

[seanlinden]

No literally every cup contender uses rookies and cheap contracts in bottom-9 roles, nor is anyone saying to run core 4 + ELCs as a roster. We have one of the most expensive bottom-6s when healthy, I think it’s just Dallas with more spent, Vegas if you count a guy like Karlsson bottom 6 but then they’re running cheap deals in the top-6.

Brodie signed for 5 the same offseason Pietrangelo signed for 8.9, it’s literally one Kerfoot+Engvall difference. If he wanted to come to Toronto for 8.9 nothing was stopping us.

The only cup winner to have a $10m+ player was Vegas last year -- it was Eichel at $10m; and then a large collection of depth in the $3-5m range.

Kerfoot & Engvall were legitimate "pieces" on the team, occupying important roles. We already had a strong reliance on league minimum guys wtih those 2 in the lineup.... you would then have been in a position where your #3C would have had to be a league minimum guy.

 

[seanlinden]

Good point, I completely forgot about ROR. The guy was a ghost against Florida and escaped all blame.



Look, I think we can all agree that the real problem in our big 4 is JT. The other guys I would say are living up to their contracts. But there's no reason to spill tears over it - it's a sunk cost that will resolve itself in a year. Trying to fix that problem by moving one of the guys who are living up to their deal makes no sense to me.

Yeah I'm not really "advocating" for moving Mitch Marner, or specifically letting him walk. I think they should have "cashed out" on the value of either Marner or Nylander when they could have because they would have returned incredible hauls, but at this point, it does probably make sense to resign Marner at around the same price as Nylander.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The only cup winner to have a $10m+ player was Vegas last year -- it was Eichel at $10m; and then a large collection of depth in the $3-5m range.

Kerfoot & Engvall were legitimate "pieces" on the team, occupying important roles. We already had a strong reliance on league minimum guys wtih those 2 in the lineup.... you would then have been in a position where your #3C would have had to be a league minimum guy.

I guess the 0.5 mil savings on Stone being a 9.5 mil deal instead of 10 qualifies him as depth.

Just to be clear you wouldn’t trade Brodie + Kerfoot + Engvall for Pietrangelo + pick 2 of the overcooked Marlies and the usual Acciari, Glendening types available in UFA at the time for 880k to 1.5M, correct? Because downgrading Kerfoot to Acciari or Haula would be too much of a hit to our forward depth.

Even if we were forced to play a guy from a local seniors rec league at 3C because of that swap, I’d take that over running a never ending stream of #6-7D on the top pair. Worst case you deal with it until March and pick up a Tampa special at the deadline and slightly overpay for a high end 3C locked in on a cheap 2 year deal and retained down to nothing.

 

[Taylor Halls Teeth]

No literally every cup contender uses rookies and cheap contracts in bottom-9 roles, nor is anyone saying to run core 4 + ELCs as a roster. We have one of the most expensive bottom-6s when healthy, I think it’s just Dallas with more spent, Vegas if you count a guy like Karlsson bottom 6 but then they’re running cheap deals in the top-6.

Brodie signed for 5 the same offseason Pietrangelo signed for 8.9, it’s literally one Kerfoot+Engvall difference. If he wanted to come to Toronto for 8.9 nothing was stopping us.

Nothing would be stopping you maybe but Dubas loved Kerfoot and kept him right to the end, even after a career year finally made the guy tradeable. No way he gets traded the year after Kadri is traded for him and after Barrie walks. That would make the GM look like an idiot.

 

[seanlinden]

I guess the 0.5 mil savings on Stone being a 9.5 mil deal instead of 10 qualifies him as depth.

Just to be clear you wouldn’t trade Brodie + Kerfoot + Engvall for Pietrangelo + pick 2 of the overcooked Marlies and the usual Acciari, Glendening types available in UFA at the time for 880k to 1.5M, correct? Because downgrading Kerfoot to Acciari or Haula would be too much of a hit to our forward depth.

Even if we were forced to play a guy from a local seniors rec league at 3C because of that swap, I’d take that over running a never ending stream of #6-7D on the top pair. Worst case you deal with it until March and pick up a Tampa special at the deadline and slightly overpay for a high end 3C locked in on a cheap 2 year deal and retained down to nothing.

Depends on when, what information is available at the time, and what the rest of our roster looks like.

Yeah, I'd happily "trade" those 3 for AP, but there'd probably be a number of other adjustmetns to the roster (including potentially trading a Marner) to rebalance the forward depth after doing that.

edit: Ultimately, yes, you probably do it.... but that's driven by how perfect a fit AP would have been on our blueline.

That doesn't mean having all these $11m guys isn't a problem.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Nothing would be stopping you maybe but Dubas loved Kerfoot and kept him right to the end, even after a career year finally made the guy tradeable. No way he gets traded the year after Kadri is traded for him and after Barrie walks. That would make the GM look like an idiot.

Trading Kerfoot for positive assets would look stupider than a leak that you said no to Pietrangelo because you wanted to keep Kerfoot?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

When we play the Florida Panthers in round 1, their top paid player (Barkov) is still paid less than the lowest of the core four. We have a flawed roster, and doubling and tripling down is very frustrating.

I can already see Reinhart re-signing in Florida for less than 11M this summer.

We are the only team in the NHL that operates the way we do. Will something ever give?

 

[ACC1224]

When we play the Florida Panthers in round 1, their top paid player (Barkov) is still paid less than the lowest of the core four. We have a flawed roster, and doubling and tripling down is very frustrating.

I can already see Reinhart re-signing in Florida for less than 11M this summer.

We are the only team in the NHL that operates the way we do. Will something ever give?

Florida takes advantage of no state tax.

 

[WTFMAN99]

When we play the Florida Panthers in round 1, their top paid player (Barkov) is still paid less than the lowest of the core four. We have a flawed roster, and doubling and tripling down is very frustrating.

I can already see Reinhart re-signing in Florida for less than 11M this summer.

We are the only team in the NHL that operates the way we do. Will something ever give?

I think they said he will come in under Tkachuk most likely.

After the whole Buffalo thing, I think he would be wise to just stay in Florida.

What's wrong with 9-9.25M x 8 years? Warm weather and no pressure.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Yeah, signing with Florida or Tampa would be amazing for a young athlete.

My only counter to that is: if it were another team, I'm still fairly certain our same players would be paid less. We're either getting a "Leafs" premium tax, or our management is overpaying players, or a little of both.

 

[Duffman955]

When we play the Florida Panthers in round 1, their top paid player (Barkov) is still paid less than the lowest of the core four. We have a flawed roster, and doubling and tripling down is very frustrating.

I can already see Reinhart re-signing in Florida for less than 11M this summer.

We are the only team in the NHL that operates the way we do. Will something ever give?

Since when is Florida the gold standard?

The mother f***ers pulled off a bunch of playoff wins when their goalie went into galaxy mode. When he regressed to the mean, they got their ass handed to them by vegas.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Since when is Florida the gold standard?

The mother f***ers pulled off a bunch of playoff wins when their goalie went into galaxy mode. When he regressed to the mean, they got their ass handed to them by vegas.

So any team with a hot goalie who makes the finals doesn't deserve to be there? The goalie is part of the team whether they are hot or cold.

We'll find out shortly whether they had lightning in a bottle or if they are frauds lol. I feel their team was well built for the playoffs and could very well see continued success.

 

[Magic Man]

Players in/out from last years playoff team to this years playoff team.

Bunting - Bertuzzi
Kerfoot - Domi
ROR - Holmberg
Lafferty - McMann
Acciari - Dewar
Simmonds - Reaves
Aston-Reese - Gregor
Schenn - Lyubushkin
Holl - Edmundson
Gustafsson - Benoit

 

[Rare Jewel]

Yeah I'm not really "advocating" for moving Mitch Marner, or specifically letting him walk. I think they should have "cashed out" on the value of either Marner or Nylander when they could have because they would have returned incredible hauls, but at this point, it does probably make sense to resign Marner at around the same price as Nylander.

Not Mitch specifically, but one of them. Keeping them sounds right in isolation, but when you actually have to put a team around them, it becomes much less clear.

I wonder how many times people would need to see these guys underperform in the playoffs before they think exploring the idea of moving one is something to consider.

I mean, what's the harm?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Not Mitch specifically, but one of them. Keeping them sounds right in isolation, but when you actually have to put a team around them, it becomes much less clear.

I wonder how many times people would need to see these guys underperform in the playoffs before they think exploring the idea of moving one is something to consider.

I mean, what's the harm?

On the other hand, I don't know if there is a haul to be had without an extension in place for Marner (or Nylander before he was re-signed) because Guentzel's return....not exactly great.

The rumoured Pietrangelo for Nylander trade during the RFA stand off was something that could have set the team up for years.

 

[Rare Jewel]

On the other hand, I don't know if there is a haul to be had without an extension in place for Marner (or Nylander before he was re-signed) because Guentzel's return....not exactly great.

The rumoured Pietrangelo for Nylander trade during the RFA stand off was something that could have set the team up for years.

Well, Marner is younger and better than Guentzel, so that should result in a better return. But if it's part of the negotiations for Marner to waive, or for the other team to trade, then fine. It will likely result in an even better haul coming back.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Graf to SJ, btw.

 

[SprDaVE]

Graf to SJ, btw.

That's a curve ball, but a good spot to be in the NHL very fast.

 

[ToneDog]

Since when is Florida the gold standard?

The mother f***ers pulled off a bunch of playoff wins when their goalie went into galaxy mode. When he regressed to the mean, they got their ass handed to them by vegas.

They were a wounded animal by the time they met Vegas and nobody was beating Vegas last year.