Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Gaberd2608]

He looks like Knies with a little bit better scoring touch, I love Knies and would need to be blown away to even think about trading him

Now imagine 2 of them

2 Knies would be wonderful .

 

[Sypher04]

2 Knies would be wonderful .

It would be very knies

 

[Killswitch]

I agree, we could waive him but it would become an issue as he may not report to Marlies/negativr attention.

The whole thing with him sounds crazy. I cannot believe his agent would not sit him down and give him a pep talk. By all accounts he has the skill to get there. He may just not want to be in Winnipeg. I know a few people who are from the Peg and love it but I can see why someone wouldnt want to live there.

Regardless, unless he says he will only accept a trade to Toronto we dont have too much to move. The best we can do is probabaly Robertson and a 2nd rounder next year. We dont have too much else we can move that would be of interest.

Robertson might be the add on, but that second does nothing in this situation. That second means far more here that it does to teams trying to contend. They'd likely want Cowan and they should. Or maybe they don't. I wouldn't call Cowan a better prospect either.

 

[Gaberd2608]

Robertson might be the add on, but that second does nothing in this situation. That second means far more here that it does to teams trying to contend. They'd likely want Cowan and they should. Or maybe they don't. I wouldn't call Cowan a better prospect either.

We arent moving Cowan. There is no reason to. We dont know what we have with him yet. It would be nice to maybe get McGroarty but we arent moving top prospects for him imo.

 

[weems]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1811538796099367367

 

[Americanadian]

Some 1-for-1's I like:

Kampf for Burroughs

LAK need a legitimate bottom 6 C, they have a surplus of RD. They have the cap space for Kampf. Burroughs played over 19 minutes/game last year for SJ and put up decent underlying numbers. He is signed for 2 more years at 1.1M. He can essentially replace Liljegren as 3RD for 1.9M less.

Liljegren for Lundestrom

Anaheim has 1 RS D on their roster. They have a surplus of C's (although not many that can play 4C). Toronto gets a Kampf replacement who's younger, cheaper, and puts up much better underlying numbers. Lundestrom has shown signs of offense in the past (16 goals at 22).

Robertson for Kartye

Seattle needs scoring. Robertson scores goals. Both players are the same age. Robertson most likely doesn't crack Toronto's top 6 anytime soon. Kartye is a better fit for a bottom 6 role (shutdown line or energy line). Kartye hits a ton, puts up strong underlying numbers, plays the PK and can chip in offense from the 4th line (11 goals last year).

Assuming Robertson would make 1.35M (Treliving likes that number) the Leafs would clear 3.3M in cap space. This would net the Leafs -1 points using my model which is a good value trade off for 3.3M. Obviously there's no one in UFA worth signing with that money today but it wouldn't hurt to go into the season with that money and potentially swing a big deal (possibly Parayko).

 

[LeafSteel]

2 Knies would be wonderful .

Here’s a couple for you.

You ARE welcome!

 

[Wrong Wilson]

It would be very knies

Almost 2 Knies

 

[meefer]

I hope you noted that I specifically mentioned looking out a few years. This isn't my 2024 lineup, I'm talking 2026-2027, with guys like Knies, Cowan, Minten and Grebyonkin much further along on their development tracks.

My apologies. That was not noted by me, mea culpa...oops.

 

[hamzarocks]

Value wise McGroaty would cost Cowan straight

Dont see how we can get him without Cowan in a deal which makes it pointless as we would want both of them not 1

 

[WillNy29]

Again. This has been covered in depth. It’s possible. But unlikely. You have to be gone X amount of time, not have any property/long term rentals/ kids in school. It is effected by endorsements etc.

Think tank theoreticals have nothing on actual professionals in the field and real world results.

The same brilliant minds told us that Tavares can do it, but he is now in court with the CRA.

John Tavares Could Save Nearly $12 Million In Taxes On His New Contract

Canada may have high tax rates but careful planning could save Tavares millions as he plays for his hometown team.

www.forbes.com

Remember? This article again says that if he puts his money in Joke RCAs, sells his house, moves his family at like 40, refused to have roots of any kind. He can in theory get his taxes down to 43% which is still not 39%

And he STILL got sued. I guess he didn’t read the article? I


Petrys agent came out and said it was a big factor in Canada (he still chose Montreal)

Think tank exercises in articles do not trump actual clients and actual results.

There is NO evidence of any actual agents players gms saying that they get a tax advantage or actually taking one.

You would expect tons of American players coming here for millions extra right?

Edit. To be clear. I am not saying that I am a tax expert. I am saying I have spent years (on my drives for work) listening/reading real world experts opinions which are almost universally that the no state tax advantages are insurmountable. Tangible and indisputable.

my guy the article literally shows that being an american athlete making your cash in signing bonus exempts you from normal income tax. that has nothing to do with sojourning (that portion was just an illustration on the understanding of residency for tax). read the article one more time and understand that you have been lied to via something called omitting the whole truth. Sure you get taxed more on actual salaried earnings here, but check every single leaf's contract (especially those who are american or make their residence outside of in the US while still being Canadian citizens) its laced with signing bonuses which have a 15% tax provision (not 15% on the bonus itself its a little more complex than that but essentially eliminates the tax almost entirely, makes it negligible). If the league begins to clamp down on how much salary can be in the form of signing and offseason bonuses then I will agree with you that we have a league out to ensure americans dont want to play in canada and a league that wants to f*** its canadian teams (I already have a small inkling that this is the case tbh lol).

Secondly, players who spend their summers here training and have some small secondary ties (Seguin's mom receiving biosteel checks and depositing on his behalf, Tavares having connections to Oakville) may end up getting deemed Canadian Residents for tax purposes anyways while theyre in dallas or long island.

Also how are you going to argue that youve formed your opinion listening to experts and then say the experts in the article about Matthews are wrong because some experts said Tavares would plan his taxes accordingly. We call this confirmation bias.

 

[IrishInOntario]

My apologies. That was not noted by me, mea culpa...oops.

No worries! That was my suspicion.

 

[Stephen]

I understand that and I do like the idea of buying low. But there is so much pressure when the team loses two or three in a row that guys like can never be given opportunities here. They can never be allowed to play and make mistakes and develop.

All this pressure talk is nonsense. Reclamations are just little housekeeping moves where you take a flyer on random guys who have pedigree or flashed up as regarded prospects at some point.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yeah not really. Only takes one good season for them to get paid and that usually comes in a contract year. You should know that. You defend the Marner contract when before his 90 point season his final year of his ELC he never reached 70 points before that. So if what you are saying is true with this comment then why did he get 11 million when he had a 61, 69 and 94 point seasons on his ELC?

Yeah, yes really. A great contract year can influence price a bit, but contracts are based on a lot more than that. Marner didn't get his contract just for his final year (which you underrate, just like his previous two). He got his contract because the entirety of his pre-signing period was one of the best of any post-ELC signing in the cap era.

 

[rumman]

2 Knies would be wonderful .

Said the Giant Finn on the defence………

 

[Legion34]

my guy the article literally shows that being an american athlete making your cash in signing bonus exempts you from normal income tax. that has nothing to do with sojourning (that portion was just an illustration on the understanding of residency for tax). read the article one more time and understand that you have been lied to via something called omitting the whole truth. Sure you get taxed more on actual salaried earnings here, but check every single leaf's contract (especially those who are american or make their residence outside of in the US while still being Canadian citizens) its laced with signing bonuses which have a 15% tax provision (not 15% on the bonus itself its a little more complex than that but essentially eliminates the tax almost entirely, makes it negligible). If the league begins to clamp down on how much salary can be in the form of signing and offseason bonuses then I will agree with you that we have a league out to ensure americans dont want to play in canada and a league that wants to f*** its canadian teams (I already have a small inkling that this is the case tbh lol).

Secondly, players who spend their summers here training and have some small secondary ties (Seguin's mom receiving biosteel checks and depositing on his behalf, Tavares having connections to Oakville) may end up getting deemed Canadian Residents for tax purposes anyways while theyre in dallas or long island.

Also how are you going to argue that youve formed your opinion listening to experts and then say the experts in the article about Matthews are wrong because some experts said Tavares would plan his taxes accordingly. We call this confirmation bias.

Experts are actual people in the field who are directly involved in the actual contracts and accounting for the actual players. Not people who wrote a theoretical think tank piec

NHL agents. GMs. Players. Accountants with NHL clients and the actual contracts of the players show that no state tax teams have an indisputable advantage.

Again.if there is no state tax advantage. Why are all the no state tax teams getting players to sign for less. Why did Grier, adams,JBB, trotz all say that there is?

Why would they lie?
Why are Americans not signing in Canada for less?

Pointing to one theoretical article and ignoring the words and actions of the actual practicitoners is silly.

Is your argument that NHL players, agents, gms and accountants lying. But you know the real truth? Why don’t you become their accountant?

 

[Legion34]

A trade for McGroarty fell apart not long ago because the team trading with the Jets didn’t like what they heard from McGroarty’s camp about guarantees over ice time and a spot in the NHL

https://x.com/i/web/status/1811072384490721428

Frank seravalli said that he was 100% committed to spending the year in college regardless. So that could be it.

Why would anyone trade for him.

I would have given up the first if he would have come out. But not for him to say come see me in a year.

 

[613Leafer]

Value wise McGroaty would cost Cowan straight

Dont see how we can get him without Cowan in a deal which makes it pointless as we would want both of them not 1

In terms of a 1 for 1, yes, that's what we'd be looking at. But there are packages that could be put together where you take ~2 of Minten, Robertson, Liljegren, Niemela, Grebenkin, etc, maybe with a pick thrown in, that could make sense.

 

[Americanadian]

Value wise McGroaty would cost Cowan straight

Dont see how we can get him without Cowan in a deal which makes it pointless as we would want both of them not 1

Cowan's NHLe (NHL equivalent points from his OHL production) was 46P/82GP this year. McGroarty was 39P/82GP. Cowan is also a year younger. From a purely production standpoint Cowan is more valuable.

Given that Winnipeg is the desperate team here I'd think they won't get the equivalent of Cowan in a deal. I think a deal would have to be centered around Minten+.

 

[Torontonian]

Toronto and Winnipeg don't make the best trade partners right now. Feels like Winnipeg would want NHL ready players, or a higher end prospect like Cowan and I don't think Toronto would want to swap Cowan for McGroarty, you would ideally want both those players on your roster now or within a year.

Looking at Winnipeg roster, Lillypad (He would probably become their 4th best d-man) and Robertson and a draft pick (maybe FLA 2nd?) might be a okay package, but I'm sure other teams can beat him out.

 

[Tony Romo]

CJ confirming that the Leafs were close to landing Matt Roy stings.

Did he say why we didn’t?

 

[nuck]

View attachment 894296
View attachment 894297

Here’s a couple for you.

You ARE welcome!

Isn't it pronounced ?

 

[Skullz]

Yeah, yes really. A great contract year can influence price a bit, but contracts are based on a lot more than that. Marner didn't get his contract just for his final year (which you underrate, just like his previous two). He got his contract because the entirety of his pre-signing period was one of the best of any post-ELC signing in the cap era.

I think what’s missing here is that Marner should have been extended the first day he was eligible. Waiting the year was a miss by Dubas.

 

[LeafParade]

McGroarty should be had a discount. The guy wants out and the team trading for him would have to ensure he would sign for them.
If he willing to demand a trade, he is probably also willing to hold out for the right team.

A package around Robertson makes the most sense because he is NHL ready.
The Jets are in compete now mode.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Won’t happen but LAK are a good spot for MM if he waived.

Mitch Marner (extended) + David Kampf
For
Quinton Byfield + Arthur Kaliyev + Jordan Spence