Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[TheKrebsCycle]

Absolutely they would. Unless they offer like 7 years then it's different

Wouldn’t that number at 7 years be an auto yes ? In 7 years that’s gonna be a peanuts with the rising cap . I’d easily take that risk . However Robertson would never sign that if he truly wanted out ( with the possibility of the 7 year term if matched ) .

 

[Gilmour1996]

I bet more along the lines of 6 years at $4 million per year.

Long before 6 years is up, if he takes the game's opening faceoff it'll be the end of the first period before he makes it all the way up to the other team's end. And that's assuming he wins the draw. If he likes Toronto so much extend him one year at a time.

 

[Evilhomer]

Long before 6 years is up, if he takes the game's opening faceoff it'll be the end of the first period before he makes it all the way up to the other team's end. And that's assuming he wins the draw. If he likes Toronto so much extend him one year at a time.

It may be a succession of one year deals, but Tavares strikes me as a guy that would want another long-term deal because it's the safe, conservative thing to do. I really think it will be long-term and well under $5 million. Maybe even under $4 million. I don't think money is a major motivator for him.

 

[Amadeus]

That Connor Brown contract signed last year which counts against this year's cap did them dirty.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Tavares’ speed is a major red flag on a new deal. I’m fine with re-upping him but it’d have to be on a severe discount.

He got a coup when he signed here. The Leafs could use discount deals now more than ever. To keep him and his family here, take a low cost deal and ride it out

 

[meefer]

Delete

 

[meefer]

Long before 6 years is up, if he takes the game's opening faceoff it'll be the end of the first period before he makes it all the way up to the other team's end. And that's assuming he wins the draw. If he likes Toronto so much extend him one year at a time.

Tavares’ speed is a major red flag on a new deal. I’m fine with re-upping him but it’d have to be on a severe discount.

He got a coup when he signed here. The Leafs could use discount deals now more than ever. To keep him and his family here, take a low cost deal and ride it out

Except the data says he's getting faster. The Maple Leafs might be forced into pursuing a tandem goalie for Joseph Woll.

	Top Skating Speed	Speed Bursts Over 20mph	Skating Distance (miles)	Top Shot Speed (mph)	Off.Zone Time
2022-23	21.99	84	211.80	86.73	41.4%
2023-24	22.39	105	213.39	88.11	41.5%

 

[Folignos Helmet]

I think the Leafs need to wait til they see their playoff results before considering extending John, unless he is taking a super sweetheart deal of 3 or less.
If they lose in first round or miss the playoffs he should be let go, you can't have him on the books in the 5-6 or higher range on an extension and lose that flexibility for change.

 

[Gilmour1996]

Except the data says he's getting faster. The Maple Leafs might be forced into pursuing a tandem goalie for Joseph Woll.

	Top Skating Speed	Speed Bursts Over 20mph	Skating Distance (miles)	Top Shot Speed (mph)	Off.Zone Time
2022-23	21.99	84	211.80	86.73	41.4%
2023-24	22.39	105	213.39	88.11	41.5%

I don't think the difference between 21.99 and 22.39 is statistically significant and it is only Top Skating Speed, not Average Speed. So he might be able to reach the same speed as the year before, but for how long and how many times per game? I bet if you bag skated him for 10 minutes as a test, his average speed would be lower as the years go by and that is normal for players once they reach a certain age.

 

[Maple Leaf]

I think the Leafs need to wait til they see their playoff results before considering extending John, unless he is taking a super sweetheart deal of 3 or less.
If they lose in first round or miss the playoffs he should be let go, you can't have him on the books in the 5-6 or higher range on an extension and lose that flexibility for change.

I can show you the Leafs playoff results if you are interested

 

[TMLAM34]

I’m perfectly fine with re-signing JT as long as it comes with a discount. A major factor in re-signing him should be his 5 on 5 play which has been getting worse and worse each year. I’m hoping a 3 year deal worth 4-4.5 million per.

 

[meefer]

I don't think the difference between 21.99 and 22.39 is statistically significant and it is only Top Skating Speed, not Average Speed. So he might be able to reach the same speed as the year before, but for how long and how many times per game? I bet if you bag skated him for 10 minutes as a test, his average speed would be lower as the years go by and that is normal for players once they reach a certain age.

No argument regarding the bag skate, but the data suggests that he increased the number of bursts over 20 mph, and skated further during the season in doing so. Do I think he's slowed down, yes, over the course of a game, or even during a longer shift. However, the NHL's data suggests that he is capable of being a better skater than we might be giving him credit for. For the Leafs, as of November /23...I do not know how often they measure, is it every game, in certain buildings, I just don't know, but... NHL Edge reveals Toronto Maple Leafs’ fastest skaters and hardest shooters. Perhaps it is more a question of how 'mobile' - change of direction/stop-start/pivot speed/etc., vs top end speed - that is the issue for JT and what many view as his declining skating skills?

Fastest Skaters (in MPH)​

		Top Speed
1	Gregor	22.65
2	Minten	22.28
3	Tavares	22.25
4	Rielly	22.10
5	Jarnkrok	21.93
6	Knies	21.83
7	McCabe	21.82
8	Kampf	21.65
9	Nylander	21.64
10	Domi	21.52
11	Liljegren	21.49
12	Matthews	21.26
13	Reaves	21.25
14	Bertuzzi	21.16
15	Giordano	20.69
16	Marner	20.39
17	Holmberg	20.35
18	Klingberg	19.93
19	Brodie	19.25

 

[conFABulator]

I’m perfectly fine with re-signing JT as long as it comes with a discount. A major factor in re-signing him should be his 5 on 5 play which has been getting worse and worse each year. I’m hoping a 3 year deal worth 4-4.5 million per.

I agree with this and am hopeful it comes in with a lower AAV. I like four years for $12M or even five years at $15M. He is still under 35, so something with term can come off the cap later if required.

I really don't see what leverage Tavares has. He's a Toronto guy, his family is here, he has made his money and he can lead by example in talking a hometown discount. He just gave up the C with class and dignity and a team-first approach, now don't with a contract. I would even do $20M over six years with a NMC and front end load it.

 

[ToneDog]

I’m perfectly fine with re-signing JT as long as it comes with a discount. A major factor in re-signing him should be his 5 on 5 play which has been getting worse and worse each year. I’m hoping a 3 year deal worth 4-4.5 million per.

I said $2mx6 but then I ask myself, what is he worth compared to Tanev which makes me think he is worth more than $3mx6. I doubt JT wants to move his family at this point, so Leafs need to take a hard stance and get him at a sweetheart number.

 

[Evilhomer]

I said $2mx6 but then I ask myself, what is he worth compared to Tanev which makes me think he is worth more than $3mx6. I doubt JT wants to move his family at this point, so Leafs need to take a hard stance and get him at a sweetheart number.

I expect it will be between $3 and $4 per season over 5 or 6 years.

 

[ACC1224]

I expect it will be between $3 and $4 per season over 5 or 6 years.

I think anything more than 3 years is risky. 3x4.5 and re-evaluate after that.

 

[Evilhomer]

I think anything more than 3 years is risky. 3x4.5 and re-evaluate after that.

I could see them giving him a long-term deal to grind down the cap hit. He strikes me as a guy that would easily retire with years left on his deal.

 

[Menzinger]

I think anything more than 3 years is risky. 3x4.5 and re-evaluate after that.

I think if the team pushes/offers a shorter term deal he will be less inclined to drop the cap that low. 3 or less years likely means it's a 5-7 mil aav.

 

[ACC1224]

I think if the team pushes/offers a shorter term deal he will be less inclined to drop the cap that low. 3 or less years likely means it's a 5-7 mil aav.

He doesn’t have much leverage IMO. If he wants to hang around town he’ll have to give some back.

 

[Evilhomer]

I think if the team pushes/offers a shorter term deal he will be less inclined to drop the cap that low. 3 or less years likely means it's a 5-7 mil aav.

I don't think he is getting anything close to $7 million. Even on a short-term deal, I think he will take $3.5 or $4. It's a retirement contract.

 

[Gabriel426]

Are you new for this kind of thing? It's always relevant. Can't assume he'll take way under what the market is or what he feels he's worth just because we think he'll stay no matter what. It will matter.

But why do we need to pay JT? Not like he won anything with us? Give him a fair contract which is pretty much the ROR contract unless he has a season like Marchessault then it will be a bit higher or let him walk.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't think he is getting anything close to $7 million. Even on a short-term deal, I think he will take $3.5 or $4. It's a retirement contract.

29 goals last season, 60+ points. Lesser players than that get much more than 3.5-4 in free agency. Bertuzzi just got 5.5 mil after 43 points. Malkin, a better comparison signed for 6+ mil over 4 years recently as a potential comparable..Malkin is better, but that was signed at a lower league cap.

He doesn’t have much leverage IMO. If he wants to hang around town he’ll have to give some back.

It's definitely leverage that the team holds. But there's going to likely be a bit of tit for tat. Either the team gets the aav they want or the term they want, I don't think they will get both from the player.

I suspect they will do what they just did with Tanev, and give him a longer contract than we will likely end up playing for the lowest potential caphit he's willing to give

 

[LeafEgo]

29 goals last season, 60+ points. Lesser players than that get much more than 3.5-4 in free agency. Bertuzzi just got 5.5 mil after 43 points. Malkin, a better comparison signed for 6+ mil over 4 years recently as a potential comparable..Malkin is better, but that was signed at a lower league cap.



It's definitely leverage that the team holds. But there's going to likely be a bit of tit for tat. Either the team gets the aav they want or the term they want, I don't think they will get both from the player.

I suspect they will do what they just did with Tanev, and give him a longer contract than we will likely end up playing for the lowest potential caphit he's willing to give

What do you think would happen if the Leafs told him the most they can offer him is 4Mx3?

 

[Menzinger]

What do you think would happen if the Leafs told him the most they can offer him is 4Mx3?

I think he'd think about it, and probably at least test free agency to see what other offers were out there.

 

[ToneDog]

I think he'd think about it, and probably at least test free agency to see what other offers were out there.

I'd pass at anything more than 3.5m. His skating, puck handling are already declining and he gets most of his points on the PP. If JT does not want to move his family he has to give the Leafs a sweetheart deal if I am the GM. Honestly, I'd rather have a Bertuzzi or Debrusk at the same cap hit.