Trades & Free Agency Thread: 2024-2025 - Trade Deadline Approaches

[Fogelhund]

This you?

I simply asked about Matthews... it was a yes, no question... So no, I didn't ask what you would have done... I asked about Matthews.

Gentlemens bet steep decline from JT in 2025 2026 season. The push for a contract is a given, it's millions of dollars at stake and goes without saying.

Define steep decline?

 

[thewave]

I simply asked about Matthews... it was a yes, no question... So no, I didn't ask what you would have done... I asked about Matthews.


Define steep decline?

45-60pts On the full season or pace. Make 40-55pts to make it interesting

 

[Americanadian]

I simply asked about Matthews... it was a yes, no question... So no, I didn't ask what you would have done... I asked about Matthews.

Asking if I would have done something: “yes” or “no”, is quite literally asking me what I would have done.

 

[Fogelhund]

Sorry I was just trying to understand how we should use taxes to judge contracts.

Why was Nylander paid 35% more than Forsberg, or 21% more than Tkachuk?

Nylander had 265 points in his three years prior to signing.
Forsberg had 164 points. Forsberg has missed a lot of playing time... even the PPG is 1.08 to 0.95

A reliable guy, who has put up 100 more points.... I think Nylander is overpaid, but that is a poor comparison.

Nylander is paid 17% more than Tkachuk... it's cap percentage, not dollars. That being said, the question here is really why did Tkachuk accept a contract where he was significantly underpaid compared to his peers? Part of it is the Florida tax, part of it is he's underpaid.

Part of the challenge with Nylander, is he was underpaid his prior contract. IMO, he should have been around 11.5%, not 13.07%. Marner should be 11.5% as well, Matthews 14%

It's a shame that CapFriendly is no more, as it had a great utility for comparing contracts.

 

[Americanadian]

Nylander had 265 points in his three years prior to signing.
Forsberg had 164 points. Forsberg has missed a lot of playing time... even the PPG is 1.08 to 0.95

A reliable guy, who has put up 100 more points.... I think Nylander is overpaid, but that is a poor comparison.

So you include the 2 COVID years for Forsberg to reduce his point totals then you include the full season for Nylander even though he signed after 37 games? You arbitrarily pick 3 seasons because Forsberg's platform season was on par or better than Nylander's? Even Dekes can't spin data like that.

Nylander is paid 17% more than Tkachuk... it's cap percentage, not dollars. That being said, the question here is really why did Tkachuk accept a contract where he was significantly underpaid compared to his peers? Part of it is the Florida tax, part of it is he's underpaid.

Part of the challenge with Nylander, is he was underpaid his prior contract. IMO, he should have been around 11.5%, not 13.07%. Marner should be 11.5% as well, Matthews 14%

Can you find me one good comparable to justify Nylander's contract?

 

[Fogelhund]

So you include the 2 COVID years for Forsberg to reduce his point totals then you include the full season for Nylander even though he signed after 37 games? You arbitrarily pick 3 seasons because Forsberg's platform season was on par or better than Nylander's? Even Dekes can't spin data like that.

Can you find me one good comparable to justify Nylander's contract?

Go ahead, actually look at the number of games he's played over his career. He's missed time in most of his seasons. It's easy for you to look up. I included PPG... I think that's a concept you understand???? Man, you really do just like to argue for arguments sake... enough of that crap.

I didn't even justify Nylander's contract. Seriously, this is beyond ridiculous... find someone else to have your endless arguments, and you accuse others of spinning. Simple concepts above your head, incapable of actually reading... just run for an argument. What a waste of time.

 

[Americanadian]

Go ahead, actually look at the number of games he's played over his career. He's missed time in most of his seasons. It's easy for you to look up. I included PPG... I think that's a concept you understand???? Man, you really do just like to argue for arguments sake... enough of that crap.

Does the points per game justify the difference in contract? Especially when Forsberg lead his team in points per game in 2/3 of those seasons you mentioned?

I didn't even justify Nylander's contract. Seriously, this is beyond ridiculous... find someone else to have your endless arguments, and you accuse others of spinning. Simple concepts above your head, incapable of actually reading... just run for an argument. What a waste of time.

I'm not sure why you continue to reply to my posts. I post here daily and rarely respond to your posts yet every time I post something I can count on you replying. Take a look in the mirror.

 

[Legion34]

Sorry I was just trying to understand how we should use taxes to judge contracts.

Why was Nylander paid 35% more than Forsberg, or 21% more than Tkachuk?

Because if you are talking about Matthew in Florida. He is getting to play in no state tax with similar take home pay.

It’s incredibly consistent. Everyone claims that NY, LA, Chicago, Toronto and Montreal are the top markets. But they always pay top dollar

Panarin/lundqvist/kane/toews/price/doughty et all took 14-15% of the cap.

All the no state tax teams get these discounts and take 11-12% because the take home pay is the same.

Ask yourself why Brady with a career high of 44 pts at the time of signing got 8.25 and Matthew got 9.5. You belief that Brady is within 1% aav after 3 years as Matthew on his third contract?

Same provinces involved/same agent involved/same family. Is Matthew just nicer? Or maybe the taxes have something to do with it.

 

[ULF_55]

Sorry I was just trying to understand how we should use taxes to judge contracts.

Why was Nylander paid 35% more than Forsberg, or 21% more than Tkachuk?

My opinion on why Nylander was overpaid (IMO) by $1 - 1.5mm on his contract?

Two Reasons:

1. He went full term, and committed to the Leafs for life.
2. Other players on the team were overpaid on their contracts when he wasn't.

 

[Americanadian]

Because if you are talking about Matthew in Florida. He is getting to play in no state tax with similar take home pay.

It’s incredibly consistent. Everyone claims that NY, LA, Chicago, Toronto and Montreal are the top markets. But they always pay top dollar

Panarin/lundqvist/kane/toews/price/doughty et all took 14-15% of the cap.

All the no state tax teams get these discounts and take 11-12% because the take home pay is the same.

Ask yourself why Brady with a career high of 44 pts at the time of signing got 8.25 and Matthew got 9.5. You belief that Brady is within 1% aav after 3 years as Matthew on his third contract?

Same provinces involved/same agent involved/same family. Is Matthew just nicer? Or maybe the taxes have something to do with it.

Brady was coming off back to back seasons leading his team in points at age 19 and 20. Why are we comparing signing a 21 year old to his 2nd contract to a 24 year old Matthew on his 3rd contract that was 88% UFA years. A good comparison would be Auston Matthews who signed for 11.6M at age 21 with a career high of 69 points.

I do also think Matthew Tkachuk wanting to play in Florida factored into it. They knew they didn’t have to be the highest bidder.

My opinion on why Nylander was overpaid (IMO) by $1 - 1.5mm on his contract?

Two Reasons:

1. He went full term, and committed to the Leafs for life.
2. Other players on the team were overpaid on their contracts when he wasn't.

It’s a vicious cycle and the fans lose out in the end.

 

[thewave]

My opinion on why Nylander was overpaid (IMO) by $1 - 1.5mm on his contract?

Two Reasons:

1. He went full term, and committed to the Leafs for life.
2. Other players on the team were overpaid on their contracts when he wasn't.

I agree and would add consistent 40goal seasons. Not easy to do. With the term, speed and goal scoring. 10m was good enough, what you said pushed it the rest of the way. He was pretty good at the four except v Canada

 

[Americanadian]

I agree and would add consistent 40goal seasons. Not easy to do. With the term, speed and goal scoring. 10m was good enough, what you said pushed it the rest of the way. He was pretty good at the four except v Canada

When he signed his contact he had only scored 40 goals one time.

 

[thewave]

When he signed his contact he had only scored 40 goals one time.

They way he was going they probably thought 50 was possible. He kinda slowed down after that. In FA he probably got his 11.5m from a Canadian market or something.

 

[Americanadian]

They way he was going they probably thought 50 was possible. He kinda slowed down after that. In FA he probably got his 11.5m from a Canadian market or something.

People said the same thing about Gaudreau - and he had just finished 4th in Hart voting.

 

[thewave]

People said the same thing about Gaudreau - and he had just finished 4th in Hart voting.

Fair point

 

[Legion34]

Brady was coming off back to back seasons leading his team in points at age 19 and 20. Why are we comparing signing a 21 year old to his 2nd contract to a 24 year old Matthew on his 3rd contract that was 88% UFA years. A good comparison would be Auston Matthews who signed for 11.6M at age 21 with a career high of 69 points.

I do also think Matthew Tkachuk wanting to play in Florida factored into it. They knew they didn’t have to be the highest bidder.


It’s a vicious cycle and the fans lose out in the end.

??? Because we are comparing the same family the same agent the same tax differences.

Brady had less nhl service, more rfa years, way less points. And he got with 1% aav of his brother who had 90pt season and is the better player.

Everyone argues all the leafs are greedy and compares them to no state tax markets. It’s the same agent/the same family. Then even say “we negotiate as a family”. Matthew just got nice when he got to Florida?

Stevie y was a brilliant negotiator until he got to Detroit. Nothing to do with taxes right? It’s winning

Except Chicago didn’t get discounts. Neither did LA or SJ.

It’s really simple. High tax markets regardless of weather, city, competitiveness pay more than low tax markets. And the gross pay turns out to equal the same net pay.

It’s the clearest correlation.

 

[ULF_55]

I agree and would add consistent 40goal seasons. Not easy to do. With the term, speed and goal scoring. 10m was good enough, what you said pushed it the rest of the way. He was pretty good at the four except v Canada

My expectation was around the $10mm mark.

I disagreed with the crowd giving him around $9mm.

My guess, term was important to him.

For the others there hasn't been any commitment, and we can toss out the "only team that can give them 8 years", as it is meaningless to players who aren't committed to the team.

 

[thewave]

??? Because we are comparing the same family the same agent the same tax differences.

Brady had less nhl service, more rfa years, way less points. And he got with 1% aav of his brother who had 90pt season and is the better player.

Everyone argues all the leafs are greedy and compares them to no state tax markets. It’s the same agent/the same family. Then even say “we negotiate as a family”. Matthew just got nice when he got to Florida?

Stevie y was a brilliant negotiator until he got to Detroit. Nothing to do with taxes right? It’s winning

Except Chicago didn’t get discounts. Neither did LA or SJ.

It’s really simple. High tax markets regardless of weather, city, competitiveness pay more than low tax markets. And the gross pay turns out to equal the same net pay.

It’s the clearest correlation.

Taxes need addressed at the next CBA. There should be some agreement for international pro athletes making over 1m.

 

[Torontonian]

I think we are agreeing... I'm not sure.

You are indeed correct, we are agreeing that publicly calling out players to media does no good for anyone, not the player or the organization.

I forgot to put the sarcastic font on haha.

 

[ULF_55]

It’s a vicious cycle and the fans lose out in the end.

Yes.

Forget who said it, but paraphrased, "If my teammates take a discount I'll take a discount."

And now some people are peeing on Tavares because he won't accept a 3rd. line center contract.

Matthews signed a short term deal so he could get paid more in 4 years.
Writing was on the walls.

 

[ULF_55]

Taxes need addressed at the next CBA. There should be some agreement for international pro athletes making over 1m.

NMC and Taxes are important considerations.

Sign a lower contract with a No State Income Tax team, and then get traded to Quebec, BC or Ontario ... California, ...

Tough one to tackle without being creative.

 

[Fogelhund]

NMC and Taxes are important considerations.

Sign a lower contract with a No State Income Tax team, and then get traded to Quebec, BC or Ontario ... California, ...

Tough one to tackle without being creative.

Give teams a pro-rated salary cap, based on taxes paid by jurisdiction.

 

[Dreakmur]

You are indeed correct, we are agreeing that publicly calling out players to media does no good for anyone, not the player or the organization.

I forgot to put the sarcastic font on haha.

Praise in public. Criticize in private.

 

[Americanadian]

??? Because we are comparing the same family the same agent the same tax differences.

Brady had less nhl service, more rfa years, way less points. And he got with 1% aav of his brother who had 90pt season and is the better player.

Everyone argues all the leafs are greedy and compares them to no state tax markets. It’s the same agent/the same family. Then even say “we negotiate as a family”. Matthew just got nice when he got to Florida?

Brady earns 14% less than Matthews. Ottawa was paying a 21 year old based off projection (just like the Leafs did with Matthews and Marner on their 2nd contracts) and it worked out for them.

Florida had leverage and they used it. If they didn't get a contract they liked they wouldn't have made the trade. They also had an internal cap structure that Matthew adhered to.

Except Chicago didn’t get discounts. Neither did LA or SJ.

It’s really simple. High tax markets regardless of weather, city, competitiveness pay more than low tax markets. And the gross pay turns out to equal the same net pay.

It’s the clearest correlation.

Bring this all back around to the Leafs. If their contracts weren't overpays - who is the comparable for Nylander at 11.5M?

 

[Kiwi]

What am I reading in here?

Our guys have been overpaid imo, we started off to high and once you've set that precedence your pretty well screwed and it's almost impossible to claw back

Also non tax states have significant advantages over high tax ones, it's just a fact
Places like Nashville, Florida and Tennessee can give guys lower AAV's and they can still end up with more "take home pay" than guys in high tax states with higher AAV's

It's not that complicated is it?