GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[dubplatepressure]

It's not perfect, I'm probably 500k off for Roy + DeBrusk I guess but this isn't overly bad.View attachment 884812

5m or so to get a 3rd pairing dman + 13th forward.

They will (still) never do it.

 

[LeafParade]

The Leafs should counter the Marner rumors and leak the suggestion that no NHL team willing to pay Marner for than 9 M because he is a playoff choker.

 

[ACC1224]

You’d be pretty naive to think a contract negotiation, potential signing or trade isn’t also workshopped to the public via “insider reporting” to gauge and shape public sentiment from both the organization side or the player agent side. Why divulge information otherwise?

People giving these Insiders attention is how they make their money.
Why is this form of negotiation only specific to this market?

You can be assured that Treliving is not going to give Marner 13m/year because Dreger says it's a good idea.

 

[ULF_55]

Lil as a 4 is a nightmare imo. Trade him, dude doesn't have it.

Yeah, I'm in no hurry.

Why go out and throw away picks at the deadline for 3rd. pairing defenders every year when you already have them in house.

 

[Malachi Crunch]

It's not perfect, I'm probably 500k off for Roy + DeBrusk I guess but this isn't overly bad.View attachment 884812

5m or so to get a 3rd pairing dman + 13th forward.

Not bad.

That 5 million is almost the exact amount needed for Kunin and Ferraro from the Sharks. Kunin can play 4C as well. (if Holmberg is not the right guy for that role).

 

[Rude Dog]

Not a sure any high thought of free agent will commit to toronto until the marner circus is either puy to bed either way
I mean im already tired of the DAILY DREGER show
The leafs just are a mess .how dubas and shanahan are still working is amazing
But unless toronto is the place your ckient dreamed of as a kid ,i think most will pass ,the marner scrutiny has a half million fans wanting him gone
Not worth it if im montour or tanev

Thats not good news. Lebrun prepping Leafs fans. We arent going to like the return on any Marner trade. I get the "it hasnt worked camp"...but things can easily get worse for this team instead of better if tre screws this up.

I wouldnt trade Marner. I would hope for the best this year under a new coach. And change the team next year when tavares is up.

 

[mydnyte]

100%

If I were Leafs GM and shopping him my ask would be a roster player (preferably a top 4 Dman with size and grit) a top A-level prospect, and a 1st round pick as my minimum requirement and go from there.

Treliving got even more than that when he dealt a re-signed Tkachuk to Florida. The key being a sign and trade which would return even more assets then the above dealing away a pending UFA after this year.

if the price is right, yes, 100% ...but, not for aged vets being a key piece, or a goalie named Saros.
Sorokin, yes, or Askarov as far as goalies go, but, they would need an appropriate plus also.
Ideally we grab a potential #1D like a Power, or an NHL ready top D prospect like Faber was last year.

Fiala (not nearly as good as MM and with an injury history) pulled in Faber and a first (19th) and it came off his best season (85 points in 82 games) while Marner's 'bad' last season was 85pts in 69 games ...and Fiala is WAY worse in the playoffs (23 points in 43 games -12)
Marner should get that plus more

 

[Stephen]

People giving these Insiders attention is how they make their money.
Why is this form of negotiation only specific to this market?

You can be assured that Treliving is not going to give Marner 13m/year because Dreger says it's a good idea.

Dreger shills for Leafs players by turning every Leafs negotiation into a soap opera, whether we’re talking XS contracts like a Sandin or an XL contract like Matthews or Marner. This creates negative engagement and sensationalism which sparks viewership.

Agents use this public forum to leak parameters and normalize the asking price and public discourse shapes the way the fanbase and paying audience thinks about a player, their contract, their popularity.

Teams leak information to signal their stance on a situation and there is another feedback loop from the fanbase, public sentiment.

Right now, as far as I know, they are workshopping the possibility that Marner might stay a Leaf. Whether that’s to drive up scarcity among other NHL teams, to test the waters that the heat on Marner has come down, and little hints like $12.5 million are being tossed around. The quieter and more apathetic the fanbase is about Marner returning, the more negative they are about a potential return, I bet the more likely he comes back.

 

[The Masters]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1803843552595640450

 

[Tony Romo]

They will (still) never do it.

As in?

 

[francis246]

It's not perfect, I'm probably 500k off for Roy + DeBrusk I guess but this isn't overly bad.View attachment 884812

5m or so to get a 3rd pairing dman + 13th forward.

there has to be a better option than Pageau for 5 million dollars. Monahan, Stamkos, Wennberg, Roslovic, Stephenson

 

[Smif]

Woll and Stolarz have a combined 138 games between them.

Broissot and Woll would have 180 combined.

Scary stuff if that's our tandem.

 

[francis246]

Woll and Stolarz have a combined 138 games between them.

Broissot and Woll would have 180 combined.

Scary stuff if that's our tandem.

I think the plan is not to commit to someone for big money. Use that money to rebuild defense/winger depth. The organization believes in Woll takin the reigns. So you need a cheap option to tandem, and hope Woll develops into our starter. The ONE and ONLY gift Dubas gave us, was Woll's contract which is an unbelievable deal.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Leafs trade Marner
Boston trades DeBrusk, Ullmark

Leafs trade Tavares, Robertson, Liljegren, 1st(2024)
Ottawa trades Chychrun, Pinto

Leafs sign Montour, Barrie, Dumba

Bertuzzi(5.5)/Matthews(13.5)/Cowan(1)
DeBrusk(5.5)/Pinto(3)/Nylander(11.5)
Knies(1)/Domi(3)/Jarnkrok(4)
McMann(1)/Kampf(2.5)/Dewar(1)
*Reaves(1.35)

Reilly(7.5)/Montour(6.5)
Dumba(3)/Chychrun(4.5)
McCabe(2)/Barrie(2.5)
*Benoit(1)

Ullmark (5)
Woll (1)

Total = 86.85 (1.15 remaining)

Debrusk is a UFA

 

[rumman]

Lil as a 4 is a nightmare imo. Trade him, dude doesn't have it.

how many chances do you give a guy? Time to move on, and IF he turns into the next Stralman, well he couldn't do it here..................

 

[dubplatepressure]

As in?

NYI aren't moving their stud #1 RHD who just posted a 70 point season for Marner. Even if we could somehow agree that there's approximately equal value (i do not), they have no D otherwise and this makes no sense from their perspective. They need Dobson far more than they need Marner, and it makes much more sense for them to go after Guentzel or Reinhart if they want to dip their toes into the winger upgrade market.

 

[Tony Romo]

there has to be a better option than Pageau for 5 million dollars. Monahan, Stamkos, Wennberg, Roslovic, Stephenson

I was being lazy and couldn’t do a deeper dive. But he was an add on in the Dobson deal

NYI aren't moving their stud #1 RHD who just posted a 70 point season for Marner. Even if we could somehow agree that there's approximately equal value (i do not), they have no D otherwise and this makes no sense from their perspective. They need Dobson far more than they need Marner, and it makes much more sense for them to go after Guentzel or Reinhart if they want to dip their toes into the winger upgrade market.

Fair! Was definitely running off the rumour from ICB (also wish casting) as a fantasy offseason.

 

[613Leafer]

I think the plan is not to commit to someone for big money. Use that money to rebuild defense/winger depth. The organization believes in Woll takin the reigns. So you need a cheap option to tandem, and hope Woll develops into our starter. The ONE and ONLY gift Dubas gave us, was Woll's contract which is an unbelievable deal.

My take on goaltending in the NHL these days is that unless you're getting a top 5ish elite goalie, it's better to allocate $$ to the blueline than to goaltending.

Put Markstrom or Binnington and their ~6M salaries behind a bad blueline, and they'll do worse than a Broissoit or Stolarz at ~2M behind a good blueline.

The good blueline can also help your offence, as they can recover the puck effectively, move the puck effectively, etc. So investing there is helping the team both defensively and offensively, which investing in a goalie doesn't do.

So yea, I think the priority is to fix the blueline, and spend the year assessing what we have in goal. Woll could legit be a quality NHL starter next year, and if he's not, we have two solid goalie prospects coming up behind him + could review other UFA/trade options a year from now when we have more capspace with Tavares coming off the books.

 

[dubplatepressure]

My take on goaltending in the NHL these days is that unless you're getting a top 5ish elite goalie, it's better to allocate $$ to the blueline than to goaltending.

Put Markstrom or Binnington and their ~6M salaries behind a bad blueline, and they'll do worse than a Broissoit or Stolarz at ~2M behind a good blueline.

The good blueline can also help your offence, as they can recover the puck effectively, move the puck effectively, etc. So investing there is helping the team both defensively and offensively, which investing in a goalie doesn't do.

So yea, I think the priority is to fix the blueline, and spend the year assessing what we have in goal. Woll could legit be a quality NHL starter next year, and if he's not, we have two solid goalie prospects coming up behind him + could review other UFA/trade options a year from now when we have more capspace with Tavares coming off the books.

Completely agree. I'm actually fine with a tandem of either Broissot or Stalarz and Holl, with Hildeby as depth.

 

[Peasy]

Woll and Stolarz have a combined 138 games between them.

Broissot and Woll would have 180 combined.

Scary stuff if that's our tandem.

I mean we are apparently seriously considering re-signing Marner. This is not a serious organization.

 

[mydnyte]

how many chances do you give a guy? Time to move on, and IF he turns into the next Stralman, well he couldn't do it here..................

the main issue with Lil was how he was used or just flat out misused.
he is one of the more defensively aware dmen we had, but was often paired poorly, and he needed to cover defensively for his partners mistakes which takes him either out of position, or gives the other team a free lane/shot on net.
When we first got Gio, they were our best pairing, but, as Gio declined, Lil couldnt cover for both.
With Rielly, they were a horrible pairing
McCabe was good with Lil, and Benoit should have been, but, they werent paired often
in the playoffs Edmundson kept blowing coverage, and Lil looked like the bad guy because he got caught in between as a result.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I mean we are apparently seriously considering re-signing Marner. This is not a serious organization.

Yep. We have season 2 Kendell as the president

 

[Gallagbi]

You can get an experienced tandem goaltender who can take a starters workload in UFA for 2M or less

Talbot had an above average sv% and played over 50 games last season foe example

I think that's a good option, we don't have the resources to get into bidding wars

Talbot is the only UFA goalie who carried a starters load last year. Im fine with him, but it could drive up price for that reason and he'll be 37 next season coming off a bad playoff.

There's a good chance they'll need to trade for a starter or capable 1A type.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I mean we are apparently seriously considering re-signing Marner. This is not a serious organization.

There is something off about all of this conflicting information.

I am going to guess that information is being leaked both ways. Re-signing Marner, or rumours of, help maintain bargaining power in trade talks. Likewise, the talk of trade could lower Marner’s ask if he wants to stay.

One thing is certain is that it seems this Marner situation will dictate how the rest of the offseason goes.

 

[Dreakmur]

We've gotten quite a lot of value out of cheap vets over the years, and part of the reason we utilized them was because Lou didn't leave kids to play. Thankfully, the GM after him was much better at replenishing the pool, and we're benefitting now. Though ideally we'd still supplement that with more cheap veteran depth, instead of overpaid veteran depth.

Yeah, our infusion of talent from the replenished prospect pool yielded us a grand total of 2 goals and 3 points in the playoffs. Thank god for Dubas! Only he could have produced such magical results in just 5 drafts and 5 offseason….