GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[ULF_55]

I'm not sure what your point is here.

I just did a comparison of Tavares and Matthews GF% at 5v5 with Marner and Nylander. I compared them season by season. Tavares' age shouldn't impact either player.

Obviously, age impacts players.
Tavares in 2024 < Tavares 2019

Regardless, as we saw the other day ...
playoffs

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Asking a dude to waive his NMC after just giving him a massive contract extension is a good way to have no one ever sign here again tbh.

Tony brother I'm going to be coming to the Dallas area for a wedding in December what do I need to know

 

[Americanadian]

Obviously, age impacts players.
Tavares in 2024 < Tavares 2019

I have no idea what point you're trying to make here when responding to the data presented? I reattached for your convenience.

Regardless, as we saw the other day ...
playoffs
View attachment 877734

I am by no means saying Marner is good in the playoffs but 1 additional goal at 5v5 in 54 games isn't really an argument that Nylander is better. A 0.14 P/60 delta is the equivalent of 1 point every 28 games.

 

[Gabriel426]

and trading marner for average player will not raise chance for a cup if they don't drastically improving the d. Leafs had been 1 of 10 or maybe 15 (if im generous) worst defensive group like last 20 year.

In the last 8-9 years, leafs probably had a def enough good to win it once and they missed their shot.

Leafs have like 18M available, they just have to use it to build a real NHL D if you want a real shot to win a cup, it's the o ly way... And they don't need to trade Marner for this so like i said, if Marner is trade you need an elite D in return or you will just be worst to win in playoff.

Who said trading MM for average players?

18mil, Leafs need a goalie, at least two top 6 wingers and two D man. That’s an average of 3.6mil per player.
Let’s say we trade MM to Blues for Binnington, Parayko and their 1st.
The Leafs can still resign Bert, and Domi.
Then use the rest of the money to get Tanev and Toffoli.
If they trade JT and Calle too, Leafs can even get Marchessult and Lindholm
That’s a much better team than the Leafs in Game 7.
Guys who actually scored in playoffs.

 

[ULF_55]

I am by no means saying Marner is good in the playoffs but 1 additional goal at 5v5 in 54 games isn't really an argument that Nylander is better. A 0.14 P/60 delta is the equivalent of 1 point every 28 games.

I realize if players were compensated the same you hope for the same production.
When someone makes 50% more you don't expect the same production.

By-the-way, I think marner is the better player.

He's just so unlikeable.

 

[thusk]

Who said trading MM for average players?

18mil, Leafs need a goalie, at least two top 6 wingers and two D man. That’s an average of 3.6mil per player.
Let’s say we trade MM to Blues for Binnington, Parayko and their 1st.
The Leafs can still resign Bert, and Domi.
Then use the rest of the money to get Tanev and Toffoli.
If they trade JT and Calle too, Leafs can even get Marchessult and Lindholm
That’s a much better team than the Leafs in Game 7.
Guys who actually scored in playoffs.

Leafs dont need anything offensively

they can easily start next season with
Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Cowan/Mcmann-Tavares-Marner
Mcmann/Cowan-Holmerg/-Robertson
Dewar-Kampf-Reaes or jarnkrok.

and it's will still a great foward group...I don't know where leafs should really need foward, sorry.

18M available to resign robertson and bring in cowan, so stay 16 for 2 dmen and 1 goalie... an average of 5.3M by player. Probably enough to sign exemple Skjei and tanev+ a pretty good goalie

so rielly-Tanev
Skjei-Mccabe
Benoit-Timmins or someone else

Woll ???

 

[Americanadian]

I realize if players were compensated the same you hope for the same production.
When someone makes 50% more you don't expect the same production.

We are shifting goalposts here. My argument that you responded to was that Marner is better than Nylander (not value, better player). This is an argument outside of cap hit (which will likely be within 5% going forward).

Have you read the posts you're replying to?

 

[ULF_55]

We are shifting goalposts here. My argument that you responded to was that Marner is better than Nylander (not value, better player). This is an argument outside of cap hit (which will likely be within 5% going forward).

Have you read the posts you're replying to?

If there was no Cap all that would matter would be who is better.
Due to Cap it isn't enough to just be a little better when you are compensated 50% more.

 

[Americanadian]

If there was no Cap all that would matter would be who is better.
Due to Cap it isn't enough to just be a little better when you are compensated 50% more.

I truly think I am the number one advocate for cap hit>raw talent on this board. You are missing the entire point. I encourage you to read the thread. Nylander makes more money than Marner next season. Marner will more than likely make the same or ~5% more than Nylander going forward.

Also - please stop moving the goal posts from your original reply. You are a moderator, I expect better.

 

[ULF_55]

I truly think I am the number one advocate for cap hit>raw talent on this board. You are missing the entire point. I encourage you to read the thread. Nylander makes more money than Marner next season. Marner will more than likely make the same or ~5% more than Nylander going forward.

Also - please stop moving the goal posts from your original reply.

Next season hasn't happened yet.

Next season is irrelevant.

 

[Brobust]

I don't remember this being a thing so I looked at his splits the last 3 seasons (his 80+ point seasons). If you split his seasons right in half here are the numbers:

Season	1st Half	2nd Half
21-22	40	40
22-23	45	42
23-24	57	41

I appreciate you making up a narrative to call someone a cynic but there appears to be one outlier half-season here.

Can I see the 5v5 numbers?

I'm sure you and I had a discussion here about how him and Tavares see a dip as the season goes on and we don't want to see them play together again.

 

[Americanadian]

Can I see the 5v5 numbers?

I'm sure you and I had a discussion here about how him and Tavares see a dip as the season goes on and we don't want to see them play together again.

I am not sure what type of data you are looking for but I was able to find that data here: Official Site of the National Hockey League | NHL.com

I am very much an advocate of separating Nylander and Tavares because they have lost their minutes at ES. Not due to a 1st half vs 2nd half slow down.

 

[Brobust]

MM can’t perform in playoffs though. Like he was not even skating like a mid 6 winger.
Ray said it best on Overdrive when Hayes asked him what he saw between the benches in Game 7. He said MM was either injured or uninterested.
I just don’t understand why some believe MM is the Leafs instead of MM is just one of Leafs and can be replace.
We all preach about players should play for the logo and not the name on the back of the jersey, maybe us fans should do that too.

We also have seen a different side of Marner as well. I remember when he was diving in front of shots face first during the playoffs.

There is something potentially special there. Maybe it's irrevocably lost, but there was something potentially special in Marner before his contract negotiation. It's not in our ability to predict if he can go back to being that, but I think if Marner has a guarantee that he will retire a leaf he could go back to being that kind of player.

I am not sure what type of data you are looking for but I was able to find that data here: Official Site of the National Hockey League | NHL.com

I am very much an advocate of separating Nylander and Tavares because they have lost their minutes at ES. Not due to a 1st half vs 2nd half slow down.

Well, I guess it's my mistake believing that his play looking shitty carried over to his production.

Either way, his production didn't dip post contract. So I can still call you cynical for your statement.

 

[Americanadian]

Next season hasn't happened yet.

Next season is irrelevant.

The discussion in the thread you replied to is: who is the better player today?

I encourage you to read the thread.

 

[Americanadian]

Either way, his production didn't dip post contract. So I can still call you cynical for your statement.

Pre-contract: 54 points in 37 games (1.46 P/GP)
Post-contract: 44 points in 45 games (0.98 P/GP)

Barely a difference!

 

[Fogelhund]

Since he's in Toronto, no body having more playoff pts than marner and nobody played more against opposite top line for a player who can't perform in playoff... and yes from a player who had an ankle injury staring 1 month before playoff, the chance he was playing injured was particularly high

trading marner just to trade him or clear space will not making leafs better. If he's trade, need to be a massive upgrade in D

No trade will happen, to clear cap space, or just to trade a player. A trade will only occur, because a repeated pattern of behaviour or play, not conducive to winning in the playoffs has been observed. Management will have decided, they can’t win with that player on the roster. We think that’s probably Marner, it might be someone else.

There is an element of addition by subtraction here. Hopefully we also get a very good return. That return doesn’t need to be a D though.

 

[Brobust]

Pre-contract: 54 points in 37 games (1.46 P/GP)
Post-contract: 44 points in 45 games (0.98 P/GP)

Barely a difference!

1st half 5v5 - 23 points
2nd half 5v5 - 22 points

I wonder if there was a team wide issue that impacted total point totals there. Something we've been crying about for a while now?

 

[Americanadian]

1st half 5v5 - 23 points
2nd half 5v5 - 22 points

I wonder if there was a team wide issue that impacted total point totals there. Something we've been crying about for a while now?

You made me look it up because I couldn’t believe your numbers.

Pre-contract: 32 ESP, 19 PPP, 37 GP
Post-contract: 27 ESP, 16 PPP, 45 GP

I’m not blaming the PP for him falling off. I think that would be naive. I very adamantly believe he was motivated by chasing the contract. I also don’t blame him, that’s human nature. I would do the same.

 

[Brobust]

You made me look it up because I couldn’t believe your numbers.

Pre-contract: 32 ESP, 19 PPP, 37 GP
Post-contract: 27 ESP, 16 PPP, 45 GP

I’m not blaming the PP for him falling off. I think that would be naive. I very adamantly believe he was motivated by chasing the contract. I also don’t blame him, that’s human nature. I would do the same.

I looked up his 1st half and 2nd half numbers. Even 41 game splits.

I see you didn't post his games played. Hmmm.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Leafs dont need anything offensively

they can easily start next season with
Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Cowan/Mcmann-Tavares-Marner
Mcmann/Cowan-Holmerg/-Robertson
Dewar-Kampf-Reaes or jarnkrok.

and it's will still a great foward group...I don't know where leafs should really need foward, sorry.

18M available to resign robertson and bring in cowan, so stay 16 for 2 dmen and 1 goalie... an average of 5.3M by player. Probably enough to sign exemple Skjei and tanev+ a pretty good goalie

so rielly-Tanev
Skjei-Mccabe
Benoit-Timmins or someone else

Woll ???

Yeah totally, the team that can't score in the playoffs doesn't need anything offensively! Great success!

 

[Gabriel426]

Leafs dont need anything offensively

they can easily start next season with
Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Cowan/Mcmann-Tavares-Marner
Mcmann/Cowan-Holmerg/-Robertson
Dewar-Kampf-Reaes or jarnkrok.

and it's will still a great foward group...I don't know where leafs should really need foward, sorry.

18M available to resign robertson and bring in cowan, so stay 16 for 2 dmen and 1 goalie... an average of 5.3M by player. Probably enough to sign exemple Skjei and tanev+ a pretty good goalie

so rielly-Tanev
Skjei-Mccabe
Benoit-Timmins or someone else

Woll ???

are you serious that Leafs don’t need any more forwards?
I don’t think we should continue our discussions, as if that’s your premises. There is no point.
Just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Brobust]

Yeah totally, the team that can't score in the playoffs doesn't need anything offensively! Great success!

He's correct in a way. I'm relatively confident in Knies and McMann as supporting LWs.

My issue is that either of Nylander or Marner has to carry their own line.

So if its:

McMann - Matthews - x
Knies - Tavares - Marner/Nylander
x - Domi - Marner/Nylander

That's a top 9 that's competitive with contenders depending on who those x-players are. If they are able to fill those spots with Mantha and Sprong. I would be comfortable.

 

[Gabriel426]

We also have seen a different side of Marner as well. I remember when he was diving in front of shots face first during the playoffs.

There is something potentially special there. Maybe it's irrevocably lost, but there was something potentially special in Marner before his contract negotiation. It's not in our ability to predict if he can go back to being that, but I think if Marner has a guarantee that he will retire a leaf he could go back to being that kind of player.



Well, I guess it's my mistake believing that his play looking shitty carried over to his production.

Either way, his production didn't dip post contract. So I can still call you cynical for your statement.

There is too much faith in MM bc if he can’t, we are essentially stuck with three 11mil plus players. Nomatter how high the cap goes up, we will always not have a balance line up that can win the Cup.
The fact that this group only have ONE round of victory in the past 8 yrs just showed they can’t do it collectively and the MGT betted on the wrong horses. To continue betting on them to get it done is quite foolish.
Leafs winning the Cup is different than making the Core win the Cup for the Leafs.

 

[jaric1862]

Leafs dont need anything offensively

they can easily start next season with
Knies-Matthews-Nylander
Cowan/Mcmann-Tavares-Marner
Mcmann/Cowan-Holmerg/-Robertson
Dewar-Kampf-Reaes or jarnkrok.

and it's will still a great foward group...I don't know where leafs should really need foward, sorry.

18M available to resign robertson and bring in cowan, so stay 16 for 2 dmen and 1 goalie... an average of 5.3M by player. Probably enough to sign exemple Skjei and tanev+ a pretty good goalie

so rielly-Tanev
Skjei-Mccabe
Benoit-Timmins or someone else

Woll ???

^100% this. If all 4 of the big forwards are staying, not a cent more on the supporting cast up front. Ride with the young guys we have internally. They need to upgrade on defence and goaltending.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

He's correct in a way. I'm relatively confident in Knies and McMann as supporting LWs.

My issue is that either of Nylander or Marner has to carry their own line.

So if its:

McMann - Matthews - x
Knies - Tavares - Marner/Nylander
x - Domi - Marner/Nylander

That's a top 9 that's competitive with contenders depending on who those x-players are. If they are able to fill those spots with Mantha and Sprong. I would be comfortable.

So Mantha, a guy who has been scratched many times and is a known head case, and Sprong are going to solve our scoring woes? Those guys have ONE PLAYOFF GOAL BETWEEN THEM IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREERS! ONE! IN 27 FREAKING COMBINED GAMES!

Sorry I don't buy it.