Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[arso40]

I’ve never been a big Brodie booster and his $5 cap hit has made him an easy option to dump in a trade, particularly if you are adding a RHD to replace him.

His recent resurgence when returned to LHD creates options. His time at RHD needs to be over, permanently.

Strong play at LHD increases his trade value, either as part of a trade or to get assets back. If you are getting a true RHD, it’s an easy decision to make as the guy is a UFA and is no longer suited to play RHD. Simply put, he no longer fits in our plans.

Worst case scenario, you do exactly what you outlined above: get Peeke to play with Rielly, dropping them to 3rd pairing to feast on other teams, like Keefe has already done since Rielly’s return.

Play the other pairs higher, and when Brodie walks as a UFA, you make your big move for RHD, either by signing a UFA or trading for him.

they're definitely not trading our most used dman going into a playoff run so a tanev peekish type trade needs to be focus without selling the far were set up pretty good in the future if we keep what we have

 

[ULF_55]

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer to add a top pairing dman such as Parayko. That would be my top priority.

Rielly - Parayko
Brodie - Liljegren
Benoit - McCabe

Just not sure the likelihood of a move of that kind of magnitude before the deadline. Hope Tre proves me wrong there though!

Hainsey retired?

Obviously, but I'm not sure Leafs need a Parayko level defender to cover up for Rielly.

I think they need a defensive d-man, who can add some grit and knows how to play the defensive part of being a defenseman. Being able to skate is a giving for all the defenders, otherwise Sandin would still be with the Leafs.

 

[arso40]

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer to add a top pairing dman such as Parayko. That would be my top priority.

Rielly - Parayko
Brodie - Liljegren
Benoit - McCabe

Just not sure the likelihood of a move of that kind of magnitude before the deadline. Hope Tre proves me wrong there though!

how do you make the money work?

 

[Americanadian]

I'd be calling San Jose and offering lesser assets for Emberson+Carpenter. Something like 3rd+5th+Timmins. Carpenter's underlying numbers have been solid on a bad SJ team and he's a RHC which the Leafs currently don't have. Emberson is a young RHD who plays a good chunk of minutes for SJ and isn't getting snowed in. He could realistically be a partner for Rielly on the current team.

 

[MarMarSab3]

I'd be calling San Jose and offering lesser assets for Emberson+Carpenter. Something like 3rd+5th+Timmins. Carpenter's underlying numbers have been solid on a bad SJ team and he's a RHC which the Leafs currently don't have. Emberson is a young RHD who plays a good chunk of minutes for SJ and isn't getting snowed in. He could realistically be a partner for Rielly on the current team.

I'd like Bailey while we are shopping at the Sharks store

 

[notdoneyet]

Just go on YouTube and search Florida panthers
They are involved in scrums dirty hits cheap shots every game.
We need a physical drop the gloves dman along with another fourth line physical forward who will drop the gloves
We can’t go to war right now with Florida they will hunt our stars like rabid dogs. You will be yelling at the tv when there are no penalties called on blatant attempts to injure.
Matthews marner willy Robertson kampf Gregor holmberg
Lilly Reilly Brodie gio janrok etc will be eaten alive
By the rats
Reilly big mean dman
Brodie Lilly worry about this pairing
McCabe Benoit

Knies Matthews marner
Bertuzzi domi willy this line can add some jam
McMann Tavares Robertson Robby might be the weak link
Fourth line mean add holmberg reaves ideally reaves sits but we need him against Florida

Who are our two tough players to add

Shouldn’t cost us a first

 

[OVO16]

Just go on YouTube and search Florida panthers
They are involved in scrums dirty hits cheap shots every game.
We need a physical drop the gloves dman along with another fourth line physical forward who will drop the gloves
We can’t go to war right now with Florida they will hunt our stars like rabid dogs. You will be yelling at the tv when there are no penalties called on blatant attempts to injure.
Matthews marner willy Robertson kampf Gregor holmberg
Lilly Reilly Brodie gio janrok etc will be eaten alive
By the rats
Reilly big mean dman
Brodie Lilly worry about this pairing
McCabe Benoit

Knies Matthews marner
Bertuzzi domi willy this line can add some jam
McMann Tavares Robertson Robby might be the weak link
Fourth line mean add holmberg reaves ideally reaves sits but we need him against Florida

Who are our two tough players to add

Shouldn’t cost us a first

Trenin or Kunin or Even Sam Carrick for the bottom 6 would be nice

 

[dubplatepressure]

Just go on YouTube and search Florida panthers
They are involved in scrums dirty hits cheap shots every game.
We need a physical drop the gloves dman along with another fourth line physical forward who will drop the gloves
We can’t go to war right now with Florida they will hunt our stars like rabid dogs. You will be yelling at the tv when there are no penalties called on blatant attempts to injure.
Matthews marner willy Robertson kampf Gregor holmberg
Lilly Reilly Brodie gio janrok etc will be eaten alive
By the rats
Reilly big mean dman
Brodie Lilly worry about this pairing
McCabe Benoit

Knies Matthews marner
Bertuzzi domi willy this line can add some jam
McMann Tavares Robertson Robby might be the weak link
Fourth line mean add holmberg reaves ideally reaves sits but we need him against Florida

Who are our two tough players to add

Shouldn’t cost us a first

Benoit, Lajoie, and Rifai aren't afraid to drop mits. We've seen Rielly and Giordano tow the line. Domi and Bert may surprise - particularly Domi. Reaves may need a few more minutes. But I agree we need probably one more in the bottom/middle 6 who isn't afraid to muck it up. Agree Sam Carrick would probably make a good depth acquisition. McCarron is another. Nick Seeler on D - depth guy.

 

[Roo]

Need someone on the right side that can shutdown, bring physicality, and make that first pass. They don’t need to be a top pairing defender, though that would be great. Just getting our guys to play their proper side will help a lot.

I’d only trade our 1st if we were getting someone with term. Otherwise we should spend less and try to get this player in the offseason.

While I agree Parayko might not be that stud defenseman he was a couple of years ago, he's still a legit top 4 defenseman who has a history of playing with Rielly in the World Cup and they had great chemistry. He's also never had a d-partner as good as Rielly as well.

That’s fine, just wouldn’t pay the price you suggested in your post. Perhaps if STL retained salary.

 

[Americanadian]

Just go on YouTube and search Florida panthers
They are involved in scrums dirty hits cheap shots every game.
We need a physical drop the gloves dman along with another fourth line physical forward who will drop the gloves
We can’t go to war right now with Florida they will hunt our stars like rabid dogs. You will be yelling at the tv when there are no penalties called on blatant attempts to injure.
Matthews marner willy Robertson kampf Gregor holmberg
Lilly Reilly Brodie gio janrok etc will be eaten alive
By the rats
Reilly big mean dman
Brodie Lilly worry about this pairing
McCabe Benoit

Knies Matthews marner
Bertuzzi domi willy this line can add some jam
McMann Tavares Robertson Robby might be the weak link
Fourth line mean add holmberg reaves ideally reaves sits but we need him against Florida

Who are our two tough players to add

Shouldn’t cost us a first

Kieffer Sherwood, AJ Greer

I just realized Cole Smith re-signed for 2 more seasons - he would have been a perfect target but with 2 years at 1M he's probably worth a ton.

 

[TheShape]

I'm with you on that sentiment but who is available with term that we are looking at? I'm under the impression our 1st will be traded for Tanev so i'm just exploring our options. Carrier and Trenin both check a lot of boxes and getting both for our 1st which is probably getting traded anyway is very good value. Trenin is a hitting machine and I can just imagine Boston or Tampa getting him just to add more terror against a team like us.

An adequate partner for Rielly is the priority. We may not even need to part with a 1st to find that player. Carrier isn’t that guy, he’s too similar to Rielly.

Dealing another 1st rounder for the sake of it is not the play for us right now.

 

[jiggy35]

Markstrom, Tanev, Greer would plug our holes perfectly.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Markstrom, Tanev, Greer would plug our holes perfectly.

Agreed a 911 would look great in my driveway, too.

 

[Stephen]

Underrated pickup: Jan Rutta
Great defensive RHD with term who the Sharks would probably retain. 2X Cup winner and has been playing well defensively in some pretty hard minutes this year.
Couldn't see it costing more than a 3rd.

Yeah good call. Although I forget who he was paired with in Tampa that made him effective. If he was Hedman’s partner?

 

[ToneDog]

I'd be calling San Jose and offering lesser assets for Emberson+Carpenter. Something like 3rd+5th+Timmins. Carpenter's underlying numbers have been solid on a bad SJ team and he's a RHC which the Leafs currently don't have. Emberson is a young RHD who plays a good chunk of minutes for SJ and isn't getting snowed in. He could realistically be a partner for Rielly on the current team.

So a 7th dman who has mono and two low draft picks for two guys who can help us? Seems too good to be true.

 

[hamzarocks]

2024 1st + Ryan Tverberg + Ty Voit/Roni Hirvonen for Carrier@50% + Tommy Novak/Trenin

 

[Americanadian]

So a 7th dman who has mono and two low draft picks for two guys who can help us? Seems too good to be true.

Ryan Carpenter was traded once in his career and he went for a 5th, which I assume would be his price today.

Emberson's value is difficult to gauge because he was on waivers this season. He is a 23YO RHD playing 19 minutes a night which holds value but he's doing that on one of the worst teams in the NHL so it doesn't say much. I think a 3rd + a roster player (Timmins) is fair value but I could be wrong.

I think Emberson would be a safe bet because his underlying numbers are strong. His ES GA/60 is the lowest on SJ, his xGA/60 is 2nd lowest behind Thrun and he has the highest DZ starts/60 on the team. He's a decently big body (6'2) and he has more hits/60 than any Leafs defenseman outside of Benoit. He fits the mold of Rielly's previous partners (Lyubushkin, Schenn) but he's RFA at the end of this year and he'll only be 24 this summer so he can realistically play that role for 5 years if he works there.

 

[Magic Man]

Out of the potential deadline free agents, how would you rank them in terms of value? From what I was able to gather I think these will be the most expensive FA rentals in order.

1. Jake Guentzel
2. Noah Hanifin
3. Chris Tanev
4. Vlad Tarasenko
5. Adam Henrique
6. Jordan Eberle
7. Matt Roy
8. Matt Dumba
9. Marc-Andre Fleury
10. Thomas Novak

 

[nuck]

Question for those advocating for Carrier: where do you see him slotting for us?

I’m heartened that he is at least a right shot defender, but are you slotting him with Rielly? Is that the suitable position for him or do you have him lower?

If you are thinking lower, based on the potential price required to acquire him vs the price to acquire Peeke, is he that much better of a fit for us than Peeke?

Genuinely asking as I’m not familiar with Carrier. Seems a little small and doesn’t appear physical so I’m curious why so many seem high on him whereas Peeke, who would appear to come much cheaper and does play more physically isn’t someone with a lot of advocates.

Personally I think Peeke on 3RHD with Benoit is a solid and hard to play against pairing.

Genuinely interested to hear from others about Carrier’s upside, where you would slot him, and what you think his acquisition cost would be.

Cheers

Im not a strong advocate of Carrier but he would be at worst a second pairing guy on the Leafs.

Peeke is 7-8 on the Jackets so a club has to totally ignore this season's results and hope he is the guy from the previous two years, one of which he led the NHL in minus (15 worse than the next CBJ.) His main partner for 52 games last year was Gavrikov who managed to be a -8 so he was clearly getting shelled in his other usage. We take that particular stat with a huge grain of salt because the team was in free fall after the LA trade and if you are their big minutes guy you are going to be a big minus but they were so bad at the end, how can you pull anything strongly positive from that tire fire? The remaining goalies had a GAA of 4 so the club was not able to prevent anything. Can't tell what he is there.

The year before when they didn't suck, was his first full season in the show and his shot based metrics were better, but not great, beside Werenski. That year, to me, is the strand of hope because he was practically a rookie and was handling top 4 minutes. including the pk.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8479369

He doesn't have much of a track record of success. He might be much better than than what we have seen in Columbus but he is a reclamation project at best and not someone you spend to bring in and find a role for. If he was making $1M per you could do it but retention costs and he doesn't really solve their RD issues. They need a top pair filler beside Rielly to push TJ down, not someone at the bottom.

Carrier is small and doesn't hit much but he isn't no contact like Mo and Brodie. He doesn't avoid taking hits or blocking shots and takes a lot of D zone starts. #3 in pk ice time and doesn't score much but all his pts are ES. His icetime is low but he gets no pp so that doesn't mean his 18:17 is sheltered 3rd pairing. His shot based metrics are good for being on a club with a negative goal differential, and they would be better if he wasn't playing with Lauzon as a regular partner. He is the much safer option, and while I prefer Tanev who seems tailor made, this kid only makes $2.5M and should cost fewer assets. Unlike Peeke, he doesn't need to bounce back at all to give them a come up on the right.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478851

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Out of the potential deadline free agents, how would you rank them in terms of value? From what I was able to gather I think these will be the most expensive FA rentals in order.

1. Jake Guentzel
2. Noah Hanifin
3. Chris Tanev
4. Vlad Tarasenko
5. Adam Henrique
6. Jordan Eberle
7. Matt Dumba
8. Marc-Andre Fleury
9. Thomas Novak
10. Matt Roy

Anybody who pays more for Matt Dumba than Matt Roy should be fired.

Edit: I see you changed it now, still Roy is too low for me but certainly fixing at least that mistake is a good change haha.

 

[arso40]

Im not a strong advocate of Carrier but he would be at worst a second pairing guy on the Leafs.

Peeke is 7-8 on the Jackets so a club has to totally ignore this season's results and hope he is the guy from the previous two years, one of which he led the NHL in minus (15 worse than the next CBJ.) His main partner for 52 games last year was Gavrikov who managed to be a -8 so he was clearly getting shelled in his other usage. We take that particular stat with a huge grain of salt because the team was in free fall after the LA trade and if you are their big minutes guy you are going to be a big minus but they were so bad at the end, how can you pull anything strongly positive from that tire fire? The remaining goalies had a GAA of 4 so the club was not able to prevent anything. Can't tell what he is there.

The year before when they didn't suck, was his first full season in the show and his shot based metrics were better, but not great, beside Werenski. That year, to me, is the strand of hope because he was practically a rookie and was handling top 4 minutes. including the pk.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8479369

He doesn't have much of a track record of success. He might be much better than than what we have seen in Columbus but he is a reclamation project at best and not someone you spend to bring in and find a role for. If he was making $1M per you could do it but retention costs and he doesn't really solve their RD issues. They need a top pair filler beside Rielly to push TJ down, not someone at the bottom.

Carrier is small and doesn't hit much but he isn't no contact like Mo and Brodie. He doesn't avoid taking hits or blocking shots and takes a lot of D zone starts. #3 in pk ice time and doesn't score much but all his pts are ES. His icetime is low but he gets no pp so that doesn't mean his 18:17 is sheltered 3rd pairing. His shot based metrics are good for being on a club with a negative goal differential, and they would be better if he wasn't playing with Lauzon as a regular partner. He is the much safer option, and while I prefer Tanev who seems tailor made, this kid only makes $2.5M and should cost fewer assets. Unlike Peeke, he doesn't need to bounce back at all to give them a come up on the right.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478851

columbus as a team makes no sense I've seen him scratched and then on the top pair they have no sense of direction they traded bjorkstrand he's a solid top six player Im not sure they even got anything for him...... your argument is a good one though but I'm willing to bet he does well here fits the tre mold just not sure hes not thinking along the lines you are with a more tanev type player

 

[Magic Man]

Anybody who pays more for Matt Dumba than Matt Roy should be fired.

Edit: I see you changed it now, still Roy is too low for me but certainly fixing at least that mistake is a good change haha.

Roy is a probably a safer gamble at this point than Dumba. I had to change it.

LA, like Philadelphia seem comfortably in the playoffs, but are not seen as serious threats for the throne. They each have a couple FA's that could be re-signed or traded or kept as own rentals. I'm not sure how realistic Roy being traded is.

 

[TheShape]

At 2.75m I doubt Peeke is even on our radar. Too rich for us to hope he could be a good fit or bounce back.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Roy is a probably a safer gamble at this point than Dumba. I had to change it.

LA, like Philadelphia seem comfortably in the playoffs, but are not seen as serious threats for the throne. They each have a couple FA's that could be re-signed or traded or kept as own rentals. I'm not sure how realistic Roy being traded is.

All fair points, but if he becomes less and less available due to LA's internal perception of competitiveness for the stanley cup wouldnt it make him more and more valuable to them in terms of obtaining? Thus making him higher on your list than if they were clearly missing the playoffs?

 

[Legion34]

Matt Roy would be my number 1. I would pay 1st for him with an extension.

I still think the 25th for Tanev plus 40th seems like the best example

I would try that and Trenin for a 3rd.

He would cover reeves if he can’t play.


Knies Matthews. Marner
Bert. Domi. Nylander
Robby. Tavares. Mcmann
Holmberg Kampf. Trenin


Reilly. Tanev.
McCabe Brodie
Benoit. Lilly.


Still have 2, 4, 5, 5,5 6, 7 or something