Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[Captain Crunch]

I don't know what this question is trying to ask. Having two players doesn't prevent the other 18 from getting worse...

We would have been stuck in limbo - not good enough for a realistic shot at the cup, but not bad enough to get top draft picks to move us out of that position.

I'll tell Vegas their cup didn't count because no team had won with a 10m center previously. Just because [insert extremely specific allocation scenario] hasn't been represented yet in [insert extremely rare and sample limited outcome], that doesn't invalidate the viability of that allocation.
Many teams have won getting less impact from that percentage of the cap. How exactly a team is configured isn't really relevant. Teams win with all sorts of configurations.

I forgot to ask you what you’re basing Matthews and Marner being generational players on?

Wow! I didn’t know that 18 players all get automatically worse each year. You would think with all the data that’s available now, and all the emphasis on proper training methods and so on, that players wouldn’t be getting worse. Weird! Not to mention that if so many players on the team would be getting worse, the odds would be that much more in our favour.

No, Dekes, they won because they had some very good skilled players (who weren’t being overpaid), as well as players who played with an edge. Not to mention a very well-rounded d corps.

If you categorically deny that it can be done, then the onus should be on you to prove your thesis.

Why would I need to do that when we have three players already proving it? Maybe I’ll just wait until these three prove me wrong.

 

[Nylanderthal]

It has been a somewhat surprising offseason in the sense that we've basically just replaced the UFA's with similar tiered players and the talk about making the defence bigger/meaner or just different hasn't materialized. Maybe there's still one big move to happen that somewhat changes team dynamics or even opens up more salary but I wouldn't have guessed the roster to look so similarly to last season when we made the GM change. I guess we won't really know forsure until the Matthews/Nylander situations play out and we get a more clear picture.

I think one thing that is overlooked in this whole scenario is how Dubas said that everything change wise was on the table in his last presser as leafs GM. I think that scared Shanny more than anything and the fact we've seen such little turnover is what Shanny wants. Tre is an errand boy. nothing more.

 

[conFABulator]

Preach.

I love how much speed we added. It was truly gross watching a ROR, Acciari, Holl, Aston-Reece try to keep up with good players.

Young legs will really help this team.

You can say "preach" but I am don't think I said what you just agreed with...I wish I had, because I agree with you

Speed is a big variable. Our replacements and having space with youth do add a lot. Having said this Engvall and ZAR had decent speed and are OUT.

Speed and hunger and upside come from making some room for youth for sure.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think you're going to be shocked at how much better a motivated Domi is than Jarn (at least offensively and being a greaseball).

I've been a fan of Max Domi since his Junior days. He typically does so much better when he plays in a bigger pressure market. He thrives on it. I wanted the Leafs to get him for awhile from free agency.

With that said, for the contracts and efficiency, Jarnkrok is better. He PKs and can really play up and down the lineup decently well. Domi is all PP and 1-way in terms of efficiency. They are much different players but I think Jarnkroks value should be higher with his contract and the year he just had.

 

[LeafSteel]

We don't really know how Tre is going to view a guy like Timmins. Could be a guy on his way out

I hope not. What I saw from Timmins last season I liked.

Add to it he’s RHD and I think he has more value to us than he does in a trade.

 

[LaPlante94]

I think one thing that is overlooked in this whole scenario is how Dubas said that everything change wise was on the table in his last presser as leafs GM. I think that scared Shanny more than anything and the fact we've seen such little turnover is what Shanny wants. Tre is an errand boy. nothing more.

You honestly think Dubas was gonna trade anyone from this core unless they asked for a trade?

 

[Martin Skoula]

The crux of the issue is balance. Florida, while admirable, cruised deep through grit, but never had great prospects to hoist the cup. I think they knew this themselves and they were borderline paraplegics by the time they got to the finals.

Vegas is a better example, they collected a 1C and a 1D and won. Allocation for the 1G is being pressure tested in recent years as that position evolves, but we have seen high priced top caliber performance from Vasy, Price, and Bobs recently work.

Probably it's possible to win a cup with our allocation of 50% in the top right corner of the forwards group, but it doesn't seem like the path of least resistance. We continually come up short in areas we can't afford to address, and our overwhelming force in one box of the roster seems to get neutralized when it counts anyway.

I don’t know that balance really matters, early in I thought our model would be closer to Colorado’s cup year where it’s skill and speed down the lineup with a few pieces like Manson to plug holes.

To make an analogy, our build felt like someone deciding to start a snow plowing business so they bought the best truck-mounted plow + blower combo money can buy, but then the wife saw the bill so instead of getting a truck to put it on, we decided to stick it on a 2004 Civic for the sake of “balance”. Now the business isn’t going so good and the conclusion is “I guess snowblowing just isn’t a viable business”.

Maybe I’m wrong but I would have had more confidence in Matthews, Marner, Nylander, a Nichushkin type, and a Karlsson on the back end with mostly filler pieces (aside from a Manson, Schenn, Gudas type + Kampf or another higher end defensive PK 3/4 C) than having Muzzin/Brodie/Klingberg on the back end with Kerfoot/Engvall middle 6ers instead of Marlies and 1.5 mil or cheaper UFAs.

 

[Fogelhund]

You honestly think Dubas was gonna trade anyone from this core unless they asked for a trade?

Yes, I think Dubas would have explored making bigger changes, including possibly changing part of the core.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yes, I think Dubas would have explored making bigger changes, including possibly changing part of the core.

Me thinks this was the sticking point on why Dubas left. Dubas wanted to make a big shakeup and Shanahan did not

 

[LaPlante94]

Yes, I think Dubas would have explored making bigger changes, including possibly changing part of the core.

I honestly don't think he would. He loved this core more than anything and we saw how he is when it comes to players he loves. If anything he trades Nylander in a package for Karlsson since he said he was pursuing him and does that make us better or the same pretty much? All I saw him doing was just completely changing up our depth and that included letting Kerfoot and Holl go finally.

 

[Fogelhund]

I honestly don't think he would. He loved this core more than anything and we saw how he is when it comes to players he loves. If anything he trades Nylander in a package for Karlsson since he said he was pursuing him and does that make us better or the same pretty much? All I saw him doing was just completely changing up our depth and that included letting Kerfoot and Holl go finally.

I'm not sure going for Karlsson would have been a good move for us... But then, I don't think the cost for Karlsson was near a Nylander anyway. Bottom line, I think he wanted to make changes, how much, who knows. We know Shanahan didn't. Whether either strategy will be successful, who knows.

 

[LaPlante94]

I'm not sure going for Karlsson would have been a good move for us... But then, I don't think the cost for Karlsson was near a Nylander anyway. Bottom line, I think he wanted to make changes, how much, who knows. We know Shanahan didn't. Whether either strategy will be successful, who knows.

I agree it would've been a bad move for us. As for Shanahan didn't and Dubas did I don't know where that comes from other then people speculating since Dubas got fired. Dubas wanted Shanahans job on top of being the GM of the team. Anyone in Shanahans position would fire that guy so idk how they came to the conclusion that he was fired because Dubas wanted to shake up the core and Shanahan didn't.

 

[Fogelhund]

I agree it would've been a bad move for us. As for Shanahan didn't and Dubas did I don't know where that comes from other then people speculating since Dubas got fired. Dubas wanted Shanahans job on top of being the GM of the team. Anyone in Shanahans position would fire that guy so idk how they came to the conclusion that he was fired because Dubas wanted to shake up the core and Shanahan didn't.

I don't think the assumption about Dubas is much of a stretch. We know factually he had prior trades vetoed... at least the Hagel one, maybe more. We know he publicly stated he'd consider changing the core four. We know Shanahan confirmed that there wouldn't be changes.

Dubas wanted autonomy to GM the team, without Shanahan's veto. After Shanahan said no, Dubas asked for ridiculous raises, basically asking to be let go. It was no longer a tenable situation. I can see both sides of the argument, why Shanny wouldn't want Dubas around, why Dubas wouldn't want to be GM without autonomy...

In the end, I guess it doesn't matter. We are still fans of the Leafs, Shanny brought in a yes man, and they team will be what it is. Hopefully the core figures it out at some point.

 

[LaPlante94]

I don't think the assumption about Dubas is much of a stretch. We know factually he had prior trades vetoed... at least the Hagel one, maybe more. We know he publicly stated he'd consider changing the core four. We know Shanahan confirmed that there wouldn't be changes.

Dubas wanted autonomy to GM the team, without Shanahan's veto. After Shanahan said no, Dubas asked for ridiculous raises, basically asking to be let go. It was no longer a tenable situation. I can see both sides of the argument, why Shanny wouldn't want Dubas around, why Dubas wouldn't want to be GM without autonomy...

In the end, I guess it doesn't matter. We are still fans of the Leafs, Shanny brought in a yes man, and they team will be what it is. Hopefully the core figures it out at some point.

It was reported he vetoed a trade. The reported trade was Knies, Mrazek and a 1st for Hagel and Fleury. Should've been fired that day so he should consider himself lucky I guess. Dregr also reported that it never reached the stage where Fleury was asked to waive his NTC and that Toronto didn't like the futures involved.

After seeing that reported trade that he reportedly vetoed I wouldn't trust this man with full power on our team either. That was just awful for us. If you can't trust your GM then why give them power over everything.

Can't call someone a yes man just because he was hired after someone like Dubas got fired. Trust goes a long way and Dubas lost that trust. Doesn't make anyone after him a yes man.

 

[geo25]

It was reported he vetoed a trade. The reported trade was Knies, Mrazek and a 1st for Hagel and Fleury. Should've been fired that day so he should consider himself lucky I guess. Dregr also reported that it never reached the stage where Fleury was asked to waive his NTC and that Toronto didn't like the futures involved.

After seeing that reported trade that he reportedly vetoed I wouldn't trust this man with full power on our team either. That was just awful for us. If you can't trust your GM then why give them power over everything.

Can't call someone a yes man just because he was hired after someone like Dubas got fired. Trust goes a long way and Dubas lost that trust. Doesn't make anyone after him a yes man.

Trev may be the GM...but everything goes through the puppet master Shanny.

 

[LaPlante94]

Trev may be the GM...but everything goes through the puppet master Shanny.

Well of course, we're not trying to get ripped off here now are we. If we're giving up important pieces/assets then you better be getting a damn good return for them and the only supposedly vetoed trade that has been reported on was one that we were getting ripped off on pretty bad. So I'd say he did a good job being team president don't you think?

 

[LeafEgo]

I don’t know that balance really matters, early in I thought our model would be closer to Colorado’s cup year where it’s skill and speed down the lineup with a few pieces like Manson to plug holes.

To make an analogy, our build felt like someone deciding to start a snow plowing business so they bought the best truck-mounted plow + blower combo money can buy, but then the wife saw the bill so instead of getting a truck to put it on, we decided to stick it on a 2004 Civic for the sake of “balance”. Now the business isn’t going so good and the conclusion is “I guess snowblowing just isn’t a viable business”.

Maybe I’m wrong but I would have had more confidence in Matthews, Marner, Nylander, a Nichushkin type, and a Karlsson on the back end with mostly filler pieces (aside from a Manson, Schenn, Gudas type + Kampf or another higher end defensive PK 3/4 C) than having Muzzin/Brodie/Klingberg on the back end with Kerfoot/Engvall middle 6ers instead of Marlies and 1.5 mil or cheaper UFAs.

I feel like we already ran the skill and speed model but that didn't work either, just a different economy car. We need balance because we're likely going to run into another team that can neutralize our four forwards.

I'm happy to run with the new GM and the latest pick ups, only so much you can do in an offseason, but also sympathetic to those saying times up.

 

[Nylanderthal]

You honestly think Dubas was gonna trade anyone from this core unless they asked for a trade?

I think he would’ve had everything on the table and the fact he admitted to pursuing EK while still with Toronto I’d assume he’d be open to a number of moves both large and small scale in order to make everything fit

 

[Martin Skoula]

I feel like we already ran the skill and speed model but that didn't work either, just a different economy car. We need balance because we're likely going to run into another team that can neutralize our four forwards.

I'm happy to run with the new GM and the latest pick ups, only so much you can do in an offseason, but also sympathetic to those saying times up.

I don’t think we ever really committed to it. Colorado had Makar, Towes, Girard, Byram on the back end with full freedom to rush the puck and speed on every forward line.

We’ve only had Rielly, an injured Gardiner, and a neutered Barrie as puck movers playing stretch pass dump and chase for half the window. Every other D we’ve had was either slower defensive guys or generic jacks of all trades with no stand-out offensive skills. None of the big priced forwards we added to the core scream “speed and skill”, the secondary speed guys we had like Kapanen and Grabner didn’t stick around very long and were usually surrounded with slow linemates.

We’ve never had a situation where we could roll out an equivalent to MacKinnon-Rantanen, follow it up with Nichushkin-Burakovski, and then Helm-Cogliano/Lehkonen with one or more of Makar/Towes/Byram behind them most of the game. Tavares plays slow and we only had a year of Engvall/Mikheyev on the 3rd. Coincidentally, Hyman-Engvall-Mikheyev was easily our best 3rd line for the short window it was together. Our rentals have almost all been slow vets.

Maybe you can neutralize one or two of our lines, but if we’re facing a team that can keep up with 4 lines of speed then we’re probably facing one of the best defensive teams of the modern era or at the very least someone putting up their best Hasek impression. Even then, if it’s a team that can neutralize 4 lines I fail to see how being more mediocre offensively for meagre “balance” gains is going to help things much. At that point you’re better off trying to develop the next Kreider/Perry to accidentally on purpose fix the opponents goalie.

Picking up gritty two way O’Rielly and Foligno is the “balanced” move, but the winners are picking up Nichushkin, Lehkonen, and Barbashev.

 

[LaPlante94]

I think he would’ve had everything on the table and the fact he admitted to pursuing EK while still with Toronto I’d assume he’d be open to a number of moves both large and small scale in order to make everything fit

I think no matter who the GM is everything is on the table even if you have no intentions of moving guys. Matthews and Marner are pretty much guaranteed to not be moved. Tavares isn't going anywhere so Nylander is always the odd 1 out. When Dubas was here and after he got fired people have been saying not much out there that'll most likely be fair value for Nylander atm so it's better to sign him. Trading for Karlsson is a big move but is it a good move for us? I don't think so tbh. Even Treliving was apparently in on the EK talks. Regardless of all that though, I just don't think that is why he was fired like people are trying to say.

 

[LeafEgo]

I don’t think we ever really committed to it. Colorado had Makar, Towes, Girard, Byram on the back end with full freedom to rush the puck and speed on every forward line.

We’ve only had Rielly, an injured Gardiner, and a neutered Barrie as puck movers playing stretch pass dump and chase for half the window. Every other D we’ve had was either slower defensive guys or generic jacks of all trades with no stand-out offensive skills. None of the big priced forwards we added to the core scream “speed and skill”, the secondary speed guys we had like Kapanen and Grabner didn’t stick around very long and were usually surrounded with slow linemates.

We’ve never had a situation where we could roll out an equivalent to MacKinnon-Rantanen, follow it up with Nichushkin-Burakovski, and then Helm-Cogliano/Lehkonen with one or more of Makar/Towes/Byram behind them most of the game. Tavares plays slow and we only had a year of Engvall/Mikheyev on the 3rd. Coincidentally, Hyman-Engvall-Mikheyev was easily our best 3rd line for the short window it was together. Our rentals have almost all been slow vets.

Maybe you can neutralize one or two of our lines, but if we’re facing a team that can keep up with 4 lines of speed then we’re probably facing one of the best defensive teams of the modern era or at the very least someone putting up their best Hasek impression. Even then, if it’s a team that can neutralize 4 lines I fail to see how being more mediocre offensively for meagre “balance” gains is going to help things much. At that point you’re better off trying to develop the next Kreider/Perry to accidentally on purpose fix the opponents goalie.

Yeah was thinking when we had the Kappy, Dermott, Barries's - we were pretty quick. Not as good as Avs, but that's the rub, we only have the budget to do a poor man's version of what we want.

Balance protects us from being fatally exposed in any one area defensively, and provides us with more than one way of winning games. Ex: we need danger zone players, crashing the net and clearing the net. Can we afford that and speed? Will the speed come with shooting? I'm remembering Mik on breakaways and even he's almost five milly now.

Domi and Kling should help us with speed at least. If Knies pops we might have Domi's speed on the third line.

 

[geo25]

Well of course, we're not trying to get ripped off here now are we. If we're giving up important pieces/assets then you better be getting a damn good return for them and the only supposedly vetoed trade that has been reported on was one that we were getting ripped off on pretty bad. So I'd say he did a good job being team president don't you think?

If that purported trade is true I agree with you...we'd a been fleeced.

 

[hamzarocks]

I don’t think we ever really committed to it. Colorado had Makar, Towes, Girard, Byram on the back end with full freedom to rush the puck and speed on every forward line.

We’ve only had Rielly, an injured Gardiner, and a neutered Barrie as puck movers playing stretch pass dump and chase for half the window. Every other D we’ve had was either slower defensive guys or generic jacks of all trades with no stand-out offensive skills. None of the big priced forwards we added to the core scream “speed and skill”, the secondary speed guys we had like Kapanen and Grabner didn’t stick around very long and were usually surrounded with slow linemates.

We’ve never had a situation where we could roll out an equivalent to MacKinnon-Rantanen, follow it up with Nichushkin-Burakovski, and then Helm-Cogliano/Lehkonen with one or more of Makar/Towes/Byram behind them most of the game. Tavares plays slow and we only had a year of Engvall/Mikheyev on the 3rd. Coincidentally, Hyman-Engvall-Mikheyev was easily our best 3rd line for the short window it was together. Our rentals have almost all been slow vets.

Maybe you can neutralize one or two of our lines, but if we’re facing a team that can keep up with 4 lines of speed then we’re probably facing one of the best defensive teams of the modern era or at the very least someone putting up their best Hasek impression. Even then, if it’s a team that can neutralize 4 lines I fail to see how being more mediocre offensively for meagre “balance” gains is going to help things much. At that point you’re better off trying to develop the next Kreider/Perry to accidentally on purpose fix the opponents goalie.

Picking up gritty two way O’Rielly and Foligno is the “balanced” move, but the winners are picking up Nichushkin, Lehkonen, and Barbashev.

The Avs winning move was also adding Kadri and Manson both big pieces in their cup run

Kadri having a career year helped them get the job done. He isnt fast but can be very skilled and adds grit when hes on.

You won't win with speed alone

Avs had a tough gritty forward with skill and point producing ability on most of their lines

Landeskog played the physical role on L1
Kadri on L2, Nichushkin on L3.

They had their top 3 players be their best players in Makar, Mack, and Rantanen for that playoff run

Leafs havent enjoyed the ability to add a Kadri or snag a Nichkushkin type player due to us not being willing to commit long term to any guys outside the core 4

 

[IPS]

The Avs winning move was also adding Kadri and Manson both big pieces in their cup run

Oh god here we again

 

[Torontonian]

Yes, I think Dubas would have explored making bigger changes, including possibly changing part of the core.

It's too ballsy from someone from the outside to come in and drastically change the team within the first few weeks of being on the job. Treliving doesn't have the perspective of what's wrong with the team like Dubas would. If major changes where to have come, it would have been Dubas doing it. All Treliving has is 1. what other people are saying in the organization about the team and 2. where they finished in the standings in the league.

As for the whole EK65 situation, each organization is different, Pittsburgh can afford to get him and the contract because of where Malkin/Letang/Crosby are at in their career, sure Pittsburgh takes the risk but thats cause they can afford to do so. IMHO unless Toronto is getting him at half the cap hit, it would have been terrible move for Toronto to make.