Trades and Free Agency - 2022 Off-season

[Fogelhund]

If the picks are fairly well protected and the prospect is someone like Brannstrom (who Ottawa can fully live without and doesn't have a ton of value beyond prestige) in addition to Arizona taking on Zaitsev, I think it could be fair.

I wouldn't do Sandin ++ for Chychrun though, not that we can afford it cap-wise anyways.

The other thing is, Ottawa's RD is nowhere near good enough and Chychrun is a win-now move. Stralman, Subban, Stone aren't helping them. Maybe if they get Holl as their Zaitsev replacement it could make some sense, but that is going to cost them another 2nd round pick if they want the Leafs to serious consider it.

I am surprised the Rangers haven't put together a really competitive offer for him though. They seem like the perfect fit and they definitely have the young assets.

Arizona probably wants a Seth Jones return when he is worth closer to Muzzin.

Arizona fans have repeatedly said he plays RD as much, at times more than LD. I don’t think the side is a problem. The price is.

 

[Fogelhund]

That is your opinion and it's fair.

If you extend if out two years and add some context the points are closer than it looks. At 5v5 over the last 2 years:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]G/60[/TD]
[TD]A1/60[/TD]
[TD]P1/60[/TD]
[TD]P/60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mangiapane[/TD]
[TD]1.33[/TD]
[TD]0.66[/TD]
[TD]1.99[/TD]
[TD]2.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander[/TD]
[TD]0.97[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1.97[/TD]
[TD]2.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Nylander's most common center over the last 2 years is Tavares and Mangiapane's has been Backlund. For all the heat Tavares' gets he's a better point producer than Backlund at 5v5.

Where the difference in points lies is powerplay assists. Over the last 2 years Nylander has put up 2.62 more assists per 60 on the power play than Mangiapane. Nylander has only scored 0.36 more goals per 60 on the powerplay - or 1 extra goal for every 166 minutes on the powerplay. This past season Mangiapane actually scored more goals/60 on the powerplay than Nylander.

Mangiapane's defense also shouldn't be shrugged off. He has legitimately been a top 10 defensive forward in the NHL over the last 2 years (top 5 according to EvolvingHockey).

Mangiapane also has a better contract situation which has value in today's NHL.


I think Lindholm has far more value than Nylander and trading him wouldn't help Calgary compete. They are also in need of RS center. Calgary's C depth is Lindholm, Backlund, Dube. Backlund, Dube, Kerfoot is not strong enough. Their LW depth is Huberdeau, Mangiapane, Coleman, Pelletier. They would probably be interested in subtracting from there to add a RW because their only true RW is Toffoli.

I get what you are saying, and he's probably a great player to play with Nylander and Tavares. But, I still personally wouldn't give up Nylander for him, I get why you would. Plus, suddenly we have a weakness on RW, and I saw your trade for Pulju, which I don't think Edmonton does frankly... I think we are better being patient with our incoming LW, in Robertson, Knies, Amirov and Holmberg. It wouldn't shock me, if all four were playing either with the Leafs, or Marlies next year and trading for a LW won't make much sense at that point.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If the picks are fairly well protected and the prospect is someone like Brannstrom (who Ottawa can fully live without and doesn't have a ton of value beyond prestige) in addition to Arizona taking on Zaitsev, I think it could be fair.

I wouldn't do Sandin ++ for Chychrun though, not that we can afford it cap-wise anyways.

The other thing is, Ottawa's RD is nowhere near good enough and Chychrun is a win-now move. Stralman, Subban, Stone aren't helping them. Maybe if they get Holl as their Zaitsev replacement it could make some sense, but that is going to cost them another 2nd round pick if they want the Leafs to serious consider it.

I am surprised the Rangers haven't put together a really competitive offer for him though. They seem like the perfect fit and they definitely have the young assets.

Arizona probably wants a Seth Jones return when he is worth closer to Muzzin.

Even with protection from top 3 those are likely going to be pretty high picks given the Sens are in a tough division and are still very young/missing pieces. Is Brannstrom considered a top prospect still? I just don't think he has near the track record nor stats to be returning that much.

All power to Arizona if they can get a haul like that but I think the time to trade him was last summer after his big year.

 

[Americanadian]

I get what you are saying, and he's probably a great player to play with Nylander and Tavares. But, I still personally wouldn't give up Nylander for him, I get why you would. Plus, suddenly we have a weakness on RW, and I saw your trade for Pulju, which I don't think Edmonton does frankly... I think we are better being patient with our incoming LW, in Robertson, Knies, Amirov and Holmberg. It wouldn't shock me, if all four were playing either with the Leafs, or Marlies next year and trading for a LW won't make much sense at that point.

I completely understand what you’re saying with all the Leafs prospects being LW. In a perfect world they fill in on lines 1-4 and that position is set for 5+ years. I’m just not as high on all of them as this board is.

I’m curious why you think Edmonton wouldn’t go for the Engvall deal. The insiders were reporting that Holland wanted a 2nd for him this summer and couldn’t get it. Engvall holds value probably close to a 2nd on his own. Also Edmonton has roughly 1.2M to sign McLeod and run a 20 man roster. The extra 750k would probably allow them to carry 21.

 

[nuck]

I completely understand what you’re saying with all the Leafs prospects being LW. In a perfect world they fill in on lines 1-4 and that position is set for 5+ years. I’m just not as high on all of them as this board is.

I’m curious why you think Edmonton wouldn’t go for the Engvall deal. The insiders were reporting that Holland wanted a 2nd for him this summer and couldn’t get it. Engvall holds value probably close to a 2nd on his own. Also Edmonton has roughly 1.2M to sign McLeod and run a 20 man roster. The extra 750k would probably allow them to carry 21.

I'm not sure Holland doesn't do Engvall for Pulju. I think they would have dealt him for a 2nd but they would rather have someone who can play now.

I don't like either enough to make that deal as I have been watching Jesse point blank since he came into the league. He has a crazy toolbox but best case scenario he takes a step forward and they can't afford to keep him. I think he needs out of Edmonton and to get minutes on a club without a ton of forward depth so he gets lots of ice time and different looks to see where he fits in. Realistically if he shot the lights out for the Leafs maybe he's a Nylander replacement but Nylander is never getting replaced so.... Huge upside unlike Engvall but I would rather see a vet brought in for that kind of money. I don't think Kyle has made any promises to Engvall but I don't think he is really on the block either.

 

[Americanadian]

I'm not sure Holland doesn't do Engvall for Pulju. I think they would have dealt him for a 2nd but they would rather have someone who can play now.

I don't like either enough to make that deal as I have been watching Jesse point blank since he came into the league. He has a crazy toolbox but best case scenario he takes a step forward and they can't afford to keep him. I think he needs out of Edmonton and to get minutes on a club without a ton of forward depth so he gets lots of ice time and different looks to see where he fits in. Realistically if he shot the lights out for the Leafs maybe he's a Nylander replacement but Nylander is never getting replaced so.... Huge upside unlike Engvall but I would rather see a vet brought in for that kind of money. I don't think Kyle has made any promises to Engvall but I don't think he is really on the block either.

In the earlier post I actually had Puljujarvi as the Nylander replacement. In a theoretical world where the trades I proposed went through he would have a fairly secure role on the 2nd line with only Jarnkrok really challenging him - similar to Nylander right now.

 

[Menzinger]

Please explain this thought.

With Mangiapane you get an additional year of term. You save ~1.15M. You get a top 10 defensive forward in the league. You don't lose any goals. Mangiapane's forechecking would be more conducive to Tavares' offensive play as well.

It's one of those things you can potentially make a case for using underlying numbers (not that I'd agree with it), but the raw trade value is still fairly wide. There would need to be a hefty + from the Flames involved

 

[TheDoldrums]

Nylander's most common center over the last 2 years is Tavares and Mangiapane's has been Backlund. For all the heat Tavares' gets he's a better point producer than Backlund at 5v5.

Where the difference in points lies is powerplay assists. Over the last 2 years Nylander has put up 2.62 more assists per 60 on the power play than Mangiapane. Nylander has only scored 0.36 more goals per 60 on the powerplay - or 1 extra goal for every 166 minutes on the powerplay. This past season Mangiapane actually scored more goals/60 on the powerplay than Nylander.

Mangiapane's defense also shouldn't be shrugged off. He has legitimately been a top 10 defensive forward in the NHL over the last 2 years (top 5 according to EvolvingHockey).

I like EvolvingHockey but this is where I think they struggle to separate team effects. They also had Michael Bunting as the 5th most valuable player in hockey by Goals Above Replacement this year, behind only Matthews, Gaudreau, McDavid and Rantanen. But we all likely realize that a large part of his value comes from his playing with his linemates.

In the above case, I'm hesitant to take Mangiapaine being a top 5 defensive player seriously when he's been playing so much with Backlund, who was already a defensive star in underlying stats long before Mangiapaine joined his line. Much like Toronto, Calgary is a team where it's really easy to look good in analytics because the team is so good 5v5. I still wonder if Mangiapine is more of a passenger than the one driving things.

 

[andora]

Nylander holl mangiapane tanev

 

[meefer]

One player out of Arizona that I am curious about is Jack McBain. Is he a player worth exploring? If he is viewed positively, do we have the right 'stuff' to acquire him in a trade? A 22 year old C that can contribute and potentially grow with the team is something I'd value, especially with him still being an RFA after this season.

 

[ULF_55]

Mangiapane and Lindholm
for
Matthews

 

[leafsfan5]

Mangiapane and Lindholm
for
Matthews

Please, let's not start this

The mainboard already has enough bad Matthews proposals right now

 

[stickty111]

Hey finally some news. Even if it's Jack Johnston lol

 

[Sebastien]

One player out of Arizona that I am curious about is Jack McBain. Is he a player worth exploring? If he is viewed positively, do we have the right 'stuff' to acquire him in a trade? A 22 year old C that can contribute and potentially grow with the team is something I'd value, especially with him still being an RFA after this season.

No. They gave Minnesota a 2nd round pick for him, not happening

 

[meefer]

No. They gave Minnesota a 2nd round pick for him, not happening

Yes, I know that. It's my understanding that he was not going to report to Minny. My question related to his upside, is he someone we'd like to pursue because he might be better than what we currently have at C in the minors, and if so, what might be the cost?

I ask because I don't know the player outside of stats.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Arizona fans have repeatedly said he plays RD as much, at times more than LD. I don’t think the side is a problem. The price is.

He plays the right side, but he's not good at it.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Arizona asking price sucks we can't do that, but what also sucks is we threw more away on garbage than steep price coyotes asking senators for (2 firsts + high end prospect + zaitsev).

Wonder what price is if sens decline their offer to take zaitsev though. Sandin + 1st looks equivalent. I'd do it.

 

[Havoc]

Arizona asking price sucks we can't do that, but what also sucks is we threw more away on garbage than steep price coyotes asking senators for (2 firsts + high end prospect + zaitsev).

Wonder what price is if sens decline their offer to take zaitsev though. Sandin + 1st looks equivalent. I'd do it.

Their asking price is where any team should start with their best trade chip especially at that age. The salt in this thread over the rumors is embarrassing.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

1st + Robertson + Muzzin

Dust my hands off and walk away.

Rielly - Brodie
Chychrun - Liljgren
Sandin - Giordano

(Gio was right side in Seattle? Sandin can get the tutelage, like Liljgren did)

Now on to adjusting the top 6.
Willy isn't working with JT...he just isn't.

Neimela + Holl + 2nd For Kane (@50%)

Kerfoot for pick

Nylander - Matthews - Kane
Bunting - Tavares - Marner
Jarnkrok- Kampf- Engvall
(Fight in camp for spots)

 

[Sebastien]

Yes, I know that. It's my understanding that he was not going to report to Minny. My question related to his upside, is he someone we'd like to pursue because he might be better than what we currently have at C in the minors, and if so, what might be the cost?

I ask because I don't know the player outside of stats.

I guess what I am saying is probably a 1st because they just gave Minnesota an early 2nd for him. But he's nothing more than bottom line C

 

[Americanadian]

I like EvolvingHockey but this is where I think they struggle to separate team effects. They also had Michael Bunting as the 5th most valuable player in hockey by Goals Above Replacement this year, behind only Matthews, Gaudreau, McDavid and Rantanen. But we all likely realize that a large part of his value comes from his playing with his linemates.

In the above case, I'm hesitant to take Mangiapaine being a top 5 defensive player seriously when he's been playing so much with Backlund, who was already a defensive star in underlying stats long before Mangiapaine joined his line. Much like Toronto, Calgary is a team where it's really easy to look good in analytics because the team is so good 5v5. I still wonder if Mangiapine is more of a passenger than the one driving things.

This is a completely fair disagreement. If you look at their WOWY Mangiapane & Backlund have a better 5v5 xGA together but Mangiapane's xGA away from Backlund is lower than Backlund's away from Mangiapane.

If you look at GSVA which does use QoC/QoT it has Mangiapane as higher GSVA projected and Backlund as higher GSVA pace. The values are close enough that it's fair to assume they are not significantly different. The whole point of all of this is it's difficult to determine who is making who better defensively on that line. They could possibly be helping each other as the WOWY's suggest.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Most overrated player in the NHL.... Basically asking for 3 1st+

Good - Ottawa can and will probably pay that too. My guess is it becomes a 1st, a conditional 2nd, and someone like Ridly Greig or Shane Pinto. I don't think they are getting Jake Sanderson.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Nylander holl mangiapane tanev

1000% yes, where do we sign lol


Also, Ottawa trading for Chychrun reminds me of the Leafs trading for Barrie - adding a player but not filling a need. They couldn't keep the puck out of their net, and Chychrun won't help much with that. Our team started to look a lot better when we added Holl and Brodie. Sens need to find their Brodie.

 

[Americanadian]

Good - Ottawa can and will probably pay that too. My guess is it becomes a 1st, a conditional 2nd, and someone like Ridly Greig or Shane Pinto. I don't think they are getting Jake Sanderson.

If Ottawa can get Chychrun for Zaitsev, Greig, 1st and then sign Weegar next off season and somehow find a goalie (Jarry?) they are starting to look scary:

Debrincat-Stutzle-Giroux
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
Formenton-Pinto-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-X

Chabot-Zub
Chychrun-Weegar
Sanderson-JBD

X
Forsberg

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

If Ottawa can get Chychrun for Zaitsev, Greig, 1st and then sign Weegar next off season and somehow find a goalie (Jarry?) they are starting to look scary:

Debrincat-Stutzle-Giroux
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
Formenton-Pinto-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-X

Chabot-Zub
Chychrun-Weegar
Sanderson-JBD

X
Forsberg

This lineup needs to answer to the hype before we get worried. DeBrincat will be making 10m on his next contract, and Weegar likely ends up staying in CGY in my opinion.