Trades and Free Agency - 2022 Off-season

[LeafSteel]

Trade proposals with Knies in them be so like….

 

[notDatsyuk]

It's more than likely Keefe will continue to run Bunting - Matthews - Marner 100% of the time again.

But if the Leafs really want to be a true contender, they need Tavares performing like a 1C at even-strength. The only time that happened last season was when Matthews was out, and they played JT with Bunting/Marner.

The Tavares/Nylander combination is too weak defensively. They're basically relegated to a sheltered scoring line role. Matthew is a Hart-winning, elite, two-way 1C. Matty + Billy should be a top-10 line in the league regardless of who else is on their wing (and they've had prior chemistry).

Milano actually had a pretty strong season and his passing microstatistics were elite. I hope they sign him, because I think he could be a good fit with Toronto's top-six players.

Tavares played eight games without Matthews. Two against good teams (TB and CAR), one against a so-so team (DAL), and five against really bad teams (NYI, OTT, OTT, PHI, and MTL).

In those 8 games as 1C he managed one goal and five assists (3 on the PP).

(In the same 8 games Nylander managed 4 goals and 6 assists.)

I think the biggest problem with JT and Willy is just that they don't fit together. I'd rather see them centering separate lines.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

Tavares played eight games without Matthews. Two against good teams (TB and CAR), one against a so-so team (DAL), and five against really bad teams (NYI, OTT, OTT, PHI, and MTL).

In those 8 games as 1C he managed one goal and five assists (3 on the PP).

(In the same 8 games Nylander managed 4 goals and 6 assists.)

I think the biggest problem with JT and Willy is just that they don't fit together. I'd rather see them centering separate lines.

Willie isn't a center.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Willie isn't a center.

Definitely not a centre.

Chemistry between JT and 88 is a concern and yet management is still set on never breaking up the big 4.

Long stretches of nothing at 5v5 and then a goal or secondary assist on the PP and the stat line looks okay but never put opponents on their heels.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

Definitely not a centre.

Chemistry between JT and 88 is a concern and yet management is still set on never breaking up the big 4.

Long stretches of nothing at 5v5 and then a goal or secondary assist on the PP and the stat line looks okay but never put opponents on their heels.

He scored 21 ESG with Tavares. I wouldn't say the chemistry is terrible.. if anything its been more a revolving door of LW's

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He scored 21 ESG with Tavares. I wouldn't say the chemistry is terrible.. if anything its been more a revolving door of LW's

They were one of the best combinations half way through the year. Then after the Covid stoppage, Nylander fell off a lot and Tavares suffered because Kerfoot is not a great compliment for him.

Unless Nylander can figure out a way to be more consistent, that line needs someone who can work with Tavares even when Nylander is not playing well. He doesn't need much, but he just needs to have someone so he is not left on an island when Nylander has his cold stretches.

 

[andora]

They were one of the best combinations half way through the year. Then after the Covid stoppage, Nylander fell off a lot and Tavares suffered because Kerfoot is not a great compliment for him.

Unless Nylander can figure out a way to be more consistent, that line needs someone who can work with Tavares even when Nylander is not playing well. He doesn't need much, but he just needs to have someone so he is not left on an island when Nylander has his cold stretches.

I have always though a player like lekhonen would compliment well

He can play with pace or can slow down, grind and cycle

Not sure if any of those are kicking around

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I have always though a player like lekhonen would compliment well

He can play with pace or can slow down, grind and cycle

Not sure if any of those are kicking around

I still think our best bet right now is Joey Anderson, at least until Knies is ready.

 

[andora]

Internally agreed

I think the thing i am actually most excited for is a kid on forward

I still think our best bet right now is Joey Anderson, at least until Knies is ready.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Willie isn't a center.

He has played there some, but if you prefer:

I'd rather see them driving separate lines.

 

[WTFMAN99]

He scored 21 ESG with Tavares. I wouldn't say the chemistry is terrible.. if anything its been more a revolving door of LW's

They were one of the best combinations half way through the year. Then after the Covid stoppage, Nylander fell off a lot and Tavares suffered because Kerfoot is not a great compliment for him.

Unless Nylander can figure out a way to be more consistent, that line needs someone who can work with Tavares even when Nylander is not playing well. He doesn't need much, but he just needs to have someone so he is not left on an island when Nylander has his cold stretches.

#4 - EV goal by JT from 88
#10 EV goal by JT from 88
#17 -EV goal by JT from 88
#18 - EV Goal by 88 from JT
#20 EV Goal by Kerfoot from 88 & JT

#21 EV goal by 88 from JT
#22 EV goal by 88 from JT
#23 EV goal by Dermott from 88 & JT
#29 - EV goal by 88 from JT
#33 EV goal by 88 from JT
#34 EV goal by JT from 88

#42 EV goal by Sandin from 88 & JT
#46 EV goal by 88 from JT
#49 EV goal by 88 from JT
#50 EV goal by Robertson from 88 & JT
#55 EV goal by Kase from 88 & JT
#56 EV goal by JT from 88
#60 EV goal by Rielly from 88 & JT

#64 EV goal by JT from 88
#72 EV goal by Giordano from 88 & JT
#77 EV goal by JT from 88

21 times they shared the score sheet for ES points

Nylander had 49 ES points of his 80 only 42% of the time were they connected on the score sheet
JT had had 50 ES points of his 76 ditto 42% for JT I believe

(maybe messed up math, tired, 16 hour shift)

They don't scream chemistry at 5v5

Matthews and Marner seemed like threats every time they were on the ice. Some nights it just felt like JT and 88 existed at 5v5 but didn't accomplish much.

 

[The Management]

Tavares was also excellent in Long Island with some fairly average wingers like Lee and Bailey. Both Okposo and Moulson also had their best years playing with Tavares. He has not, traditionally, relied on having skilled wingers.

I'm not opposed to giving Nylander a look on the third line if it spreads our offense out a little more.

 

[Americanadian]

The conversation about Nylander on the 3rd line is a bit misleading. If Nylander and Tavares are driving their own lines and Nylander isn’t with Kampf on shutdown duty it’s very likely that Keefe plays both lines equally. Nylander/Tavares would bump up their TOI on the PP.

Assuming nothing changes with the roster this could make sense:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-NAK
Engvall-Jarnkrok-Nylander
Kerfoot-Kampf-Anderson

 

[MAB1]

I don't get why they can't just run:

XXX-Matthews-Nylander
Bunting-Tavares-Marner

And then flip Marner and Nylander as needed and obviously they all see time together on the powerplay. Matthews and Marner is known to work, Marner and Tavares has worked, why not try it. Best case scenario, Marner can unlock first year Tavares, worst-case, you have what you have now.

 

[Havoc]

Knies is untouchable because you won't get another one in your system for years. I'd overpay in every other sense though, additional prospects or picks.

I wanted to put 88 on line 3 in a similar manner to having the X-factor of Kessel on line 3 for Pittsburgh.

If Knies isn't up for it, you can certainly put 88 up on LW with JT and Marner if need be.

Knies-Jarnkrork-Robertson isn't bad either.

hmmm that is the only part where we will have to differ. I am high on Knies and think he will become a top 6 forward at some point, but he doesn't make the cut declining patrick kane. If there's a small list of guys to go all in on, Patrick Kane makes the list. We don't even know what the team will look like when / if that day comes Knies becomes a regular impact player. It could potentially have less odds to win the cup than the odds we have next season.

Knies is good but he's not marner or nylander "won't get in your system for years" level of good. I think emotionally we feel that way but in reality Knies isn't in that tier. Worry about replacing him later. I personally can't turn down Kane because of fear we can't find another prospect in Knies tier. From a building stand point contending with best possible odds to win a cup (matthews marner nylander kane tavares), it doesn't make sense to keep knies if that is who they wanted. We're never going to get odds that high again. Literally ever again. Maybe in the year 3000+

Dubas' draft capital, considering no first round picks or blue chips ending up winning the kane sweep stakes as the finishing touch to this team is an automatic A+ genius drafting.

 

[Shooter2x]

hmmm that is the only part where we will have to differ. I am high on Knies and think he will become a top 6 forward at some point, but he doesn't make the cut declining patrick kane. If there's a small list of guys to go all in on, Patrick Kane makes the list. We don't even know what the team will look like when / if that day comes Knies becomes a regular impact player. It could potentially have less odds to win the cup than the odds we have next season.

Knies is good but he's not marner or nylander "won't get in your system for years" level of good. I think emotionally we feel that way but in reality Knies isn't in that tier. Worry about replacing him later. I personally can't turn down Kane because of fear we can't find another prospect in Knies tier. From a building stand point contending with best possible odds to win a cup (matthews marner nylander kane tavares), it doesn't make sense to keep knies if that is who they wanted. We're never going to get odds that high again. Literally ever again. Maybe in the year 3000+

Dubas' draft capital, considering no first round picks or blue chips ending up winning the kane sweep stakes as the finishing touch to this team is an automatic A+ genius drafting.

I think I'm not as anti-dubas as I think I am. I strongly believe this would be his exact view regarding adding Patrick Kane, who is still good for 100+ points beside Matthews.

A Matthews-Kane duo guarantees two of marner tavares nylander see 90 points because there will exist no defense in the world that can touch our second line, since teams will be too occupied with the Americans. It is simply a team the NHL cannot stop regardless of anything they try.

That would be a deal we have to make and if it doesn't work out brush it off and continue life. Nobody to blame but the players. If Marner and the boys still choke after adding Kane, it's time to re-shape the team anyways, and plenty of assets will be coming back even better than Knies.

 

[LeafChief]

I don't get why they can't just run:

XXX-Matthews-Nylander
Bunting-Tavares-Marner

And then flip Marner and Nylander as needed and obviously they all see time together on the powerplay. Matthews and Marner is known to work, Marner and Tavares has worked, why not try it. Best case scenario, Marner can unlock first year Tavares, worst-case, you have what you have now.

This is how I would like to see them start as well.

Hopefully move out Kerfoot and Holl and use some of the saved funds to add a forward that can play on that top line. Still some decent players available in UFA. I know most will say there are no 'top' line forwards out there but Bunting was not considered that either when they signed him.

Reading back on the Bunting signing thread from last year is hilarious.

 

[ULF_55]

The conversation about Nylander on the 3rd line is a bit misleading. If Nylander and Tavares are driving their own lines and Nylander isn’t with Kampf on shutdown duty it’s very likely that Keefe plays both lines equally. Nylander/Tavares would bump up their TOI on the PP.

Assuming nothing changes with the roster this could make sense:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-NAK
Engvall-Jarnkrok-Nylander
Kerfoot-Kampf-Anderson

There was an analysis of Jarnkrok after the signing. Don't have time to find it now, but as a center he isn't very productive compared to when he is any winger. It was quite different.

And not sure I see Robertson as a suitable candidate for Tavares.

Points wise:

Robertson 1 -Tavares 76 -Aube-Kubel 23: 100 points
Engvall 35 Jarnkrok 30 Nylander 80: 145

So:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Engvall - Jarnkrok - Nylander (Face-offs: Nylander 52%, Engvall 42%, Jarnkrok 53% Calgary)
Robertson/McMann - Tavares - Aube-Kubel
Steeves/McMann/Douglas - Kampf - Gaudette/Anderson

 

[Zybalto]

View attachment 576071
#4 - EV goal by JT from 88
#10 EV goal by JT from 88
#17 -EV goal by JT from 88
#18 - EV Goal by 88 from JT
#20 EV Goal by Kerfoot from 88 & JT

View attachment 576072

#21 EV goal by 88 from JT
#22 EV goal by 88 from JT
#23 EV goal by Dermott from 88 & JT
#29 - EV goal by 88 from JT
#33 EV goal by 88 from JT
#34 EV goal by JT from 88


View attachment 576073

#42 EV goal by Sandin from 88 & JT
#46 EV goal by 88 from JT
#49 EV goal by 88 from JT
#50 EV goal by Robertson from 88 & JT
#55 EV goal by Kase from 88 & JT
#56 EV goal by JT from 88
#60 EV goal by Rielly from 88 & JT

View attachment 576074

#64 EV goal by JT from 88
#72 EV goal by Giordano from 88 & JT
#77 EV goal by JT from 88

21 times they shared the score sheet for ES points

Nylander had 49 ES points of his 80 only 42% of the time were they connected on the score sheet
JT had had 50 ES points of his 76 ditto 42% for JT I believe

(maybe messed up math, tired, 16 hour shift)

They don't scream chemistry at 5v5

Matthews and Marner seemed like threats every time they were on the ice. Some nights it just felt like JT and 88 existed at 5v5 but didn't accomplish much.

I think part of the problem is that Bunting/Matthews/Marner were so dominant (maybe the best line in the league) that Nylander/Tavares were always doomed to look pale in comparison.

Also considering they spent less than 60% of their 5v5 time together this season, just picking things out the way you have makes it a little tough to figure out their production together.

Looking at straight production numbers this past season, here are some numbers (along with a couple interesting comparables):

Marner on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60 without Tavares: 4.71
McDavid line on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60: 3.28
Tavares/Nylander line on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60: 3.22
Draisaitl line on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60: 3.14
Tavares on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60 without Nylander or Marner: 3.12
Nylander on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60 without Tavares: 2.43
Tavares/Marner line on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60: 2.37

This was just the last season though, lets look at all Leafs data since Keefe was made coach:

Marner on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60 without Tavares: 4.06
Tavares/Nylander line on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60: 3.02
Tavares on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60 without Nylander or Marner: 3.35
Nylander on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60 without Tavares: 2.43
Tavares/Marner line on ice 5v5 Goals for rates/60: 2.48

Just going off production numbers, Nylander/Tavares are one of the better producing 2nd lines out there but Tavares may work better with someone else and Nylander hasnt had comparably solid chemistry with anyone else. I think getting a solid, stable LW for them could change the whole dynamic and push them even higher but flat cap killing that dream.

 

[Americanadian]

There was an analysis of Jarnkrok after the signing. Don't have time to find it now, but as a center he isn't very productive compared to when he is any winger. It was quite different.

And not sure I see Robertson as a suitable candidate for Tavares.

Points wise:

Robertson 1 -Tavares 76 -Aube-Kubel 23: 100 points
Engvall 35 Jarnkrok 30 Nylander 80: 145

So:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Engvall - Jarnkrok - Nylander (Face-offs: Nylander 52%, Engvall 42%, Jarnkrok 53% Calgary)
Robertson/McMann - Tavares - Aube-Kubel
Steeves/McMann/Douglas - Kampf - Gaudette/Anderson

I think Robertson would work with Tavares if they had a puck retrieval winger like NAK. You also just re-posted the same lines but in reverse order after a post where I said the order really won't matter. Also posting Robertson as 1 point seems a little disingenuous. If you look at points per game it's 0.61 for the trio of Robertson-Tavares-NAK and 0.64 for a trio of Engvall-Jarnkrok-Nylander.

For the 4th line I'm starting to think Kerfoot stays based on the market for forwards right now with Bjorkstrand being dealt for basically nothing and Nino signing a deal worth 8M total.

 

[ULF_55]

I think Robertson would work with Tavares if they had a puck retrieval winger like NAK. You also just re-posted the same lines but in reverse order after a post where I said the order really won't matter. Also posting Robertson as 1 point seems a little disingenuous. If you look at points per game it's 0.61 for the trio of Robertson-Tavares-NAK and 0.64 for a trio of Engvall-Jarnkrok-Nylander.

For the 4th line I'm starting to think Kerfoot stays based on the market for forwards right now with Bjorkstrand being dealt for basically nothing and Nino signing a deal worth 8M total.

Yeah, Robertson is a complete unknown. His 1 point in 10 games was a 2 on 1 with Nylander feeding him a cross ice pass for goal. It was a rush goal, where Nylander carried it from his own blueline.



Robertson-?-Nylander

I don't really see how it works with Kerfoot staying.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Tavares was also excellent in Long Island with some fairly average wingers like Lee and Bailey. Both Okposo and Moulson also had their best years playing with Tavares. He has not, traditionally, relied on having skilled wingers.

I'm not opposed to giving Nylander a look on the third line if it spreads our offense out a little more.

And Parenteau having his best 2 seasons playing with JT

 

[Americanadian]

Yeah, Robertson is a complete unknown. His 1 point in 10 games was a 2 on 1 with Nylander feeding him a cross ice pass for goal. It was a rush goal, where Nylander carried it from his own blueline.



Robertson-?-Nylander

I don't really see how it works with Kerfoot staying.

I watched the game - it was an awesome play. One assist for a Robertson goal in 43 minutes isn't worth building a line around though. I see both Nylander and Robertson and to a lesser degree Tavares as needing to play with an energetic puck retriever. Robertson-X-Nylander could work, in my mind, with an energetic C that could get them the puck. I don't see that center on the Leafs roster though. I see NAK as being able to provide that at RW with Tavares-Robertson.

I also don't know who would play that role on the proposed line of Engvall-Jarnkrok-Nylander. Steeves or McMann could step in for Engvall and Engvall could reunite with Kampf and have Anderson at RW in a world with no Kerfoot.

I also think Kerfoot should be the odd man out - I just don't see where the market is for him.

 

[MAB1]

This is how I would like to see them start as well.

Hopefully move out Kerfoot and Holl and use some of the saved funds to add a forward that can play on that top line. Still some decent players available in UFA. I know most will say there are no 'top' line forwards out there but Bunting was not considered that either when they signed him.

Reading back on the Bunting signing thread from last year is hilarious.

Honestly, I'd wait to see how Knies/Robertston do on the LW to Matthews-Nylander before making and trades for a top 6 forward. The solution could very well be internal. I agree though I'd still trade Kerfoot (I'd keep Holl, he's underrated around these parts but he's a solid D-man).

 

[ULF_55]

I watched the game - it was an awesome play. One assist for a Robertson goal in 43 minutes isn't worth building a line around though. I see both Nylander and Robertson and to a lesser degree Tavares as needing to play with an energetic puck retriever. Robertson-X-Nylander could work, in my mind, with an energetic C that could get them the puck. I don't see that center on the Leafs roster though. I see NAK as being able to provide that at RW with Tavares-Robertson.

I also don't know who would play that role on the proposed line of Engvall-Jarnkrok-Nylander. Steeves or McMann could step in for Engvall and Engvall could reunite with Kampf and have Anderson at RW in a world with no Kerfoot.

I also think Kerfoot should be the odd man out - I just don't see where the market is for him.

Yes, Robertson 1 point in 43 minutes over 10 games doesn't scream ready. However, I doubt his 9 minutes a night was spent with 2nd. liners. It did let him know how far he has to go to play against NHL players.

I don't see Kerfoot playing on the 4th. line though.

Yeah, maybe Robertson could be a triggerman for Tavares, and maybe a lighter Tavares could get to puck quicker to feed Robertson?

Really, Jarnkrok and Nylander can and have played their off-wings so I think they could work with almost any centerman.