Trades and Free Agency - 2022/2023 Trade Deadline Edition

[LeafSteel]

Just watched knies' interview. Not to confident he'll sign after the frozen four. Here's the link.

Not even going to bother speculating about Knies signing or not.

I would expect the Leafs management have a handle on this. If their inclination is he isn't signing, then he will be traded for a major addition before the TDL, and it will be explained by Management that was the reason he was traded.

Having said that, nothing points in the direction of his not signing, starting with Matthews being his favorite player, and coming into a top NHL team with management committing to him a chance to start in big team roster.

Not even going to bother worrying about something like this. If he doesn't want to be here, with the set up we have, the opportunity to win, and the value and respect that our Management team has shown him over the last year in particular, well, I don't know what to tell you young man.

He will be a Leaf and in our lineup after his collegiate season is over. There is no reason to think otherwise.....

 

[Dreakmur]

@4thline put up a lineup that has 21 players on the roster.

Meier @ $8.5 million AAV, Samsonov @ $5 million, and Holmberg $1.1 million. The XXX are $800k (7th D, 4th line).

Murray traded.

The YYY's for the 3rd line can total $5 million. Comes in just under the $83.5 million cap.

Meier - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
YYY - YYY - Jarnkrok
McMann - Holmberg - XXX

Rielly - Brodie
Sandin - Liljegren
Giordano - Timmins
XXX

Samsonov
Woll.

Trading Murray with 6 million in salary owed won’t be easy.

Mentioned this before, a deal for Bertuzzi and Rasmussen would be a great addition to this team. Deal probably starts with Robertson and our 2023 2nd round draft pick +.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Bertuzzi - Tavares - Nylander
Knies - Rasmussen - Kerfoot
Engvall - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Aston Reese + Holmberg

Then look for an upgrade on the blueline.

Robertson and a 2nd might get you one of those guys.

Mikey Anderson is basically what I hoped Dermott would become.

Modern mobile shutdown D with surprising physicality. For some reason, Dermott’s physicality just slowly disappeared. He was one of the better hip checkers in the OHL/AHL. Too bad he was made of glass and prone to brutal decision making errors.

Players often get assimilated into their team’s culture. It shouldn’t be surprising that Dermott lost his physical edge.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Trading Murray with 6 million in salary owed won’t be easy.

It took a 3rd and a 7th when he had more term and was owed more money.

 

[kb]

Trading Murray with 6 million in salary owed won’t be easy.

It took a 3rd and a 7th when he had more term and was owed more money.

This was answered quite well - his pedigree and play this season makes this an easy move. For the most part, when healthy Murray's play has been dynamite. The Leafs were not the only suitors last season for Murray last offseason either.

LA would probably love to have him right now.

 

[Sypher04]

Just watched knies' interview. Not to confident he'll sign after the frozen four. Here's the link.

Honestly, a guy who doesn’t plan to join the club likely doesn’t even take this interview request for a random fan podcast.

I would not be reading too much into his comments. Hockey players are very cliche. He’s essentially saying the good pro mantra, that he is focusing on helping his team now win and contract stuff will be thought on and sorted come the off-season.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

There is just no way Knies doesn't sign this year. No other team can offer him a better chance at success and a big pay day. No time in the AHL if he can hold his own and a pretty good looking chance to play beside Matthews or Tavares next year. Its a no brainer slam dunk for his future.

 

[DarkKnight]

Just watched knies' interview. Not to confident he'll sign after the frozen four. Here's the link.

I honestly don’t know how you‘d infer that from this interview. 2:30 on he discusses how he’s trying to focus on the now but it’s in the back of his head and then how he thinks he can contribute in the NHL. Don’t get it, all I hear is a kid trying to focus on the task at hand but knows the Leafs are on the horizon.

As an aside, impressive young man.

 

[hamzarocks]

4 out of our 6 defensemen were internally developed

Rielly, Sandin, Lilijgren are our 3 guys. I guess your including holl as well

Rielly and Lilijgren are top 4D on the team but Holl is only there due to injury to Muzzin and Sandin isn't a top4D yet and with his defensive game not being worked on likely to be a rielly- lite at best

There have been plenty of misses at D with guys like Percy, Finn, Blecker, Dermott, Nielsen, Schenn, Connor Carrick all being guys we couldn't help become regular top 4D

 

[57 Years No Cup]

He hasn’t scored in 26 games, sure he’s good defensively, but this idea he’s irreplaceable I don’t get at all. He gets a free pass on here, for me he doesn’t do enough in the 3 hole, he escapes scrutiny because the other lines do it all. Shutdown fine, but you have to contribute too. He walks, it isn’t the end of the world that’s for sure. Bunting, as you say, a totally different loss.

Kampf gets a free pass because Dubas acquired him, and as we all well know Dubas has never made a mistake. Ever.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Not even going to bother speculating about Knies signing or not.

I would expect the Leafs management have a handle on this. If their inclination is he isn't signing, then he will be traded for a major addition before the TDL, and it will be explained by Management that was the reason he was traded.

Having said that, nothing points in the direction of his not signing, starting with Matthews being his favorite player, and coming into a top NHL team with management committing to him a chance to start in big team roster.

Not even going to bother worrying about something like this. If he doesn't want to be here, with the set up we have, the opportunity to win, and the value and respect that our Management team has shown him over the last year in particular, well, I don't know what to tell you young man.

He will be a Leaf and in our lineup after his collegiate season is over. There is no reason to think otherwise.....

Fearless prediction/hot take: Knies doesn't want to play in Canada.

 

[Kelly]

Fearless prediction/hot take: Knies doesn't want to play in Canada.

If that were true why would he be doing all these local media interviews?

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Fearless prediction/hot take: Knies doesn't want to play in Canada.

Then he demands a trade ala Fox. You don't wait out two more years of NHL pay and getting through your ELC to stay NCAA in his position of readiness.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Fearless prediction/hot take: Knies doesn't want to play in Canada.

So brave, so elegant. Look at this fearless king or queen bravely stepping where nobody else has ever before.

Will there ever be another act so gallant? Not if you ask @55 Years of Futility!

 

[kb]

Not a big fan of Murphy or McCabe, because Chicago's D is so much worse than the Leafs. Their top-4 is worse than the Leafs by quite a bit.

If I was to do a deal however, it would all be on Chicago to get the cap hit down to 1/4 since Kane holds all the cards if he only wants to come to the Leafs..

But I would do say......Sandin, Abruzzese, 3rd for Kane with 75% retention and McCabe at 50%.

 

[thusk]

you won't find a bigger Patrick Kane fan than me but come on, we are completely the wrong fit for him.

How do you look down our lineup and conclude that adding another small scoring winger is what's going to get us over the hump?

I get it the D market is terrible this year, but you have to be wise with your assets no matter what.

Just as comparaison small foward when hawks won their last cup

Kane
Teravainen
Shaw
Versteeg
Kruger
Richards

I didnt put sharp or vermette in that list who was not partically big and not physical at all


But sure BEING BIG AND PHYSICAL is the ONLY way to have succes

 

[Dekes For Days]

Rielly, Sandin, Lilijgren are our 3 guys. I guess your including holl as well

Rielly and Lilijgren are top 4D on the team but Holl is only there due to injury to Muzzin and Sandin isn't a top4D yet and with his defensive game not being worked on likely to be a rielly- lite at best

There have been plenty of misses at D with guys like Percy, Finn, Blecker, Dermott, Nielsen, Schenn, Connor Carrick all being guys we couldn't help become regular top 4D

Rielly, Sandin, Liljegren, and Holl were all internally developed, and all are playing roles on one of the best defensive teams in the league.
Of course there are misses or guys that don't become top 4 D, but I'm not sure how you've attributed those to some systematic organizational development failure.

 

[Kurtz]

So the solution is the new Marleau with a corresponding contract?

He's literally the last player they should resign to that dollar amount.

1. Marleau was not remotely on Kane's level. When we signed him, Marleau was coming off a 46 point season. Kane is coming off a 92 point season.

2. Marleau signed here at 38. Kane is 34.

If you're looking to compare a potential Kane addition to that of another former Leaf, Mogilny would be a better comparable. Although Kane has been a much better playoff performer than Mogilny.

 

[Burnie97]

This will be the norm the next while I imagine with plenty of scouts.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Can yiu please send me the lottery numbers

No one knows what they ask for
Decisions will be made if things make sense

Why worry about something 2/3 years from now. Things change

Marner is highly likely to ask for what Matthews gets, as he did in the last negotiation. The only difference now will be he's a pending UFA.

 

[kb]

1. Marleau was not remotely on Kane's level.
2. Marleau signed here at 38. Kane is 34.

If you're looking to compare a potential Kane addition to that of another former Leaf, Mogilny would be a better comparable. Although Kane has been a much better playoff performer than Mogilny.

It's more about the timing of his performance decline is mirroring Marleau.....at 34/35 Marleau dropped off from nearly a decade of being reasonably close to a PPG player to more of a 40-50 point player.

And Marleau was healthy.

I just think people are expecting too much from a player that has a ton of hard mileage on him. He's got nearly 1300 NHL games including playoffs under his belt. And he's only played 9 playoff games since 2016-17.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner is highly likely to ask for what Matthews gets, as he did in the last negotiation.

Marner is very unlikely to get what Matthews gets, just like last time.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Marner is very unlikely to get what Matthews gets, just like last time.

Unless he hits open market to find out in which case, he very well could.

 

[Sypher04]

Obviously I wanna win tonight, but does anyone else get the feeling Kane might put on a show trying to get our attention for trade?

Unless he hits open market to find out in which case, he very well could.

Highly doubtful.

 

[Gabriel426]

That's a valid concern but I think Meier provides Keefe with options, you can throw someone like Nylander on line 3 and have him drive it if you want a different look

To me, ROR and Toews will automatically be on the 3rd line, no reasons to discuss further.
However, with Meier, ideally you a lot him with JT and have Calle on the other wing and reunite MM with AM and Bunting. Then have Willie on the 3rd line with two other Swedes. But I doubt Keefe will do that, as Keefe will most likely just stack the top 2 lines. It is a different story with Kane bc Kane, MM and Willie are line drivers and I don’t think Willie will be effective playing with either of them with JT and AM as C.
I do like Meier for what he brings but just doubt Keefe will spread out the offence on 3 lines.

 

[rojac]

Not a big fan of Murphy or McCabe, because Chicago's D is so much worse than the Leafs. Their top-4 is worse than the Leafs by quite a bit.

If I was to do a deal however, it would all be on Chicago to get the cap hit down to 1/4 since Kane holds all the cards if he only wants to come to the Leafs..

But I would do say......Sandin, Abruzzese, 3rd for Kane with 75% retention and McCabe at 50%.

So, in your deal, is it Abruzzese that you see as the piece going to the third team to get Kane to 75% (50% by Chcago, 50% of the remaining by the third team)?

If so, that means Sandin and a 3rd for Kane (50% retained) and McCable (50% retained). Now, let's say you can get Kane for the 3rd (which seems a little low, but maybe), that leaves Sandin for McCable (at 50%) which seems really low. Remember, McCable has another 2 years on his deal at $4M a year (both Cap and Salary), so you'd be asking Chicago to pay out $4M over the next seasons for McCabe to play in Toronto. They're not going to do that for nothing. I'm not sure that sure that Sandin covers the cost of McCabe and may only be worth slightly more than what that amount of retention is worth.