Trades and Free Agency - 2022/2023 Trade Deadline Edition

[Morgs]

Wait Gus was playing top pair? I saw him with the hat trick. But really?

I'm not certain they'd call it top-pair, but his ATOI is of a top-pair defenseman this season.

I know it seems unlikely, but someone has to sit… one of the worst defensive defensemen in the league doesn’t have a place on my playoff D pairings. But that’s just my opinion

Someone has to sit, and it *should* be Schenn/Timmins. I think you're overcorrecting in regards to "one of the worst". He's not Rielly bad, and has actually graded out extremely well this year.

The Leafs simply can't hold 9 defenseman. Nobody except Holl or Gus make sense to move and I expect whichever one that stays will split minutes with Schenn.

 

[fahad203]

Man I'm on a plane for 9 hours and Dubas decides to go full video game mode.
The Sandin trade is wierd but understandable. Gustavsson as depth is find but odd. The first is fine value but keeping it past the deadline would be wierd after all we did. Used on a top 6 forward?
I rather Kerfoot dealt than Engvall but I get it. Good player but could be a lot more. Got a 3rd which is where his value is, and Kerfoot could be dealt anyways.
Schenn trade seems like overdoing it but maybe by design. A physical #7 who might be an #8 here lol. 9 d man now though

Schenn is very well loved by his teammates in Vancouver. He's a big boy and has some presence.
I dont' see Gustavsson hanging around. He'll be flipped or waived

Considering we already have Benn, didn't see the need for Schenn. But when you go shopping, I guess you may as well spend the remainder of the change

 

[Kurtz]

If Murray is gone you could keep Crouse and Bunting at 4.3M each, ROR at 3M and Samsonov at 3.5M.

ROR will cost more than that. But the big offseason will be the 2024 offseason where Willy and Matthews get their raises. Having Crouse's contract on the books then will really hurt. Having guys like Knies around on bargain deals at that point will be essential if we want to keep our window open indefinitely.

 

[Americanadian]

There is no chance you're getting ROR for 3M AAV.

Think 5M+

We'll revisit this in 5 months.

 

[Cor]

63.47% sure the BOS 1st and Kerfoot are going for a 2LW + cap shenanigans?

That’s the main question left.

Are we just gonna move a D now and use the cap space we have now to carry a full 23 man roster.

Or is Kyle Dubas cooking up a finale to one of the most impressive deadlines I can remember, at least from a Leafs stand point.

Sandin stings to trade, but there is logic to it. We acquired a immediately significant upgrade in McCabe, but we did get a 1st in return, which is about what Sandin would be valued in trades anyway, and Gustafsson does have some real value - I think we could probably flip him for similar to what we paid for Schenn due to his point totals this year. Edmonton just traded Barrie and could use a new powerplay QB on the back end.

 

[Americanadian]

ROR will cost more than that. But the big offseason will be the 2024 offseason where Willy and Matthews get their raises. Having Crouse's contract on the books then will really hurt.

Why? Brodie comes off the books then and the cap goes up a projected 4M. Matthews/Nylander shouldn't get more than a 2M raise each.

 

[notbias]

We play back-to-back, and then there is the deadline. Do you play Holl/Schenn/Gustafsson heavy minutes in each of the games and see who comes out on top? You can get a better idea of who should be the #6 on the team and then try to make some moves to recoup some picks and maybe use some on a top 9 forward.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Kelley Gruber was seen warming up few weeks ago

Woah, we're going WAY back.

 

[123offtheglass]

He's sheltered in terms of zone starts, but you can't shelter defenseman that play 21+ minutes. It's like saying Roman Josi is a sheltered defenseman, when in reality they're minimizing short-comings and optimizing their strengths- which Washington did a fantastic job of this year with Gus.

Roman Josi plays 25+ minutes a night & then there's the quality of competition factor; Gustafsson's *20+ minutes a night is not a close comparison. There's certainly a lot of more sheltered defenseman out there, but Gustafsson's more sheltered than not; the fatigue factor helps his case for sure though given how much he plays as well.

Definetly agree though that Washington has done a fantastic job getting the most out of Gustafsson. What he's been to an injury plagued Carlson, he can be to Rielly, but on a much deeper team obviously.

 

[Kurtz]

Why? Brodie comes off the books then and the cap goes up a projected 4M. Matthews/Nylander shouldn't get more than a 2M raise each.

We'd need a first pairing replacement for Brodie which wouldn't be cheap. Lil's bridge also ends and he'll want to get paid. We'd have lost Gio's bargain contract. Plus we'd need to spend on goaltending. It's going to be super, super tight.

Things open up afterwards though once JT's deal is off the books and he's back on a Spezza special.

 

[Americanadian]

I could see Edmonton being interested in Gustafsson. They were hot and heavy for a pair of offensive dmen in Karlsson and Chych, but pivoted to a defensive dman today, while trading their main pp guy away in Barrie. They still look to have a hole on D as a result and now need an offensive guy. If we could flip him for a 2nd, that'd be a neat bit of business.

NYI fit the bill here too.

 

[The Podium]

I'm not certain they'd call it top-pair, but his ATOI is of a top-pair defenseman this season.
Someone has to sit, and it *should* be Schenn/Timmins. I think you're overcorrecting in regards to "one of the worst". He's not Rielly bad, and has actually graded out extremely well this year.

The Leafs simply can't hold 9 defenseman. Nobody except Holl or Gus make sense to move and I expect whichever one that stays will split minutes with Schenn.

I just find it weird that the team, Dubas or Keefe haven’t really mentioned Gus outside of the trade announcement.

Schenn immediately made an agent announcement, McCabe, Lafferty, ROR and Acciari were all plane tracked and immediately announced they’d be dressed for the next game. Gus… silence

 

[meefer]

Keefe & Co. are going to get less sleep than Dubas has had.

 

[Americanadian]

We'd need a first pairing replacement for Brodie which wouldn't be cheap. Lil's bridge also ends and he'll want to get paid. We'd have lost Gio's bargain contract. Plus we'd need to spend on goaltending. It's going to be super, super tight.

Things open up afterwards though once JT's deal is off the books and he's back on a Spezza special.

It would look something like:

Rielly-X
McCabe-Lily@5M
X-Timmins

Maybe Lily for significantly less depending on how he plays next year.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Having Crouse on the books at that cap hit means goodbye to Bunting for sure. At least Murray is an expiring that we can move to make the numbers work. Going forward would you rather have Bunting+Knies or Crouse alone? I think the answer is clear.

How is Murray expiring? He's signed through next year and Bunting is a UFA this summer.

You could maybe argue that we could "Robidas Island" Murray. But he's not an expiring. You're also ignoring the fact that you can slash salary elsewhere (e.g. Kerfoot), so it's not a Bunting+Knies vs Crouse calculation. It's a Kalder-Hicks, not Pareto optimal calculation.

 

[Cor]

Why? Brodie comes off the books then and the cap goes up a projected 4M. Matthews/Nylander shouldn't get more than a 2M raise each.

Yeah I’m not concerned about bringing back Matthews or Nylander if they want too.

Seeing as there was talk directly from the league that this year was almost close to more than a 1M increase, I think next year could end up being even more than the 4M projected

 

[Morgs]

Roman Josi plays 25+ minutes a night & then there's the quality of competition factor; Gustafsson's *20+ minutes a night is not a close comparison. There's certainly a lot of more sheltered defenseman out there, but Gustafsson's more sheltered than not; the fatigue factor helps his case for sure though given how much he plays as well.

Definetly agree though that Washington has done a fantastic job getting the most out of Gustafsson. What he's been to an injury plagued Carlson, he can be to Rielly, but on a much deeper team obviously.
[/QUOTE

And Roman Josi is 2nd in both highest OZS and lowest DZS behind only Gus in both. It's disingenuous to not say Washington has essentially deployed him as Josi-lite this season, and if Gus is sheltered, so is Josi. Again, a guy who plays 21+ minutes a game cannot be sheltered. Sandin & Timmins were/are sheltered defenseman.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

We'll revisit this in 5 months.

O'Reilly seems like a greedy, "get all my money dude," but for some reason I can see him taking a hometown discount (a la Giordano) with us depending on how the rest of the year goes.

 

[Kurtz]

How is Murray expiring? He's signed through next year and Bunting is a UFA this summer.

You could maybe argue that we could "Robidas Island" Murray. But he's not an expiring. You're also ignoring the fact that you can slash salary elsewhere (e.g. Kerfoot), so it's not a Bunting+Knies vs Crouse calculation. It's a Kalder-Hicks, not Pareto optimal calculation.

He'll be an expiring this summer with only 1 year left on his deal. He's not a candidate for Robidas Island at his age, but as an expiring coming off a decent season we might be able to move him if need be.

Kerfoot's money + cap increase will be swallowed up by ROR and Bunting ideally. It's a tight rope, but maybe we can walk it if we don't have an extra 4.3 mil winger hanging around.

 

[Americanadian]

Yeah I’m not concerned about bringing back Matthews or Nylander if they want too.

Seeing as there was talk directly from the league that this year was almost close to more than a 1M increase, I think next year could end up being even more than 7M

I agree. There was speculation on the 32 thoughts podcast that Marty Walsh would fight for a bigger increase this year and next but the Bally bankruptcy might put an end to that.

O'Reilly seems like a greedy, "get all my money dude," but for some reason I can see him taking a hometown discount (a la Giordano) with us depending on how the rest of the year goes.

He doesn't have the numbers to justify 5M+ right now. We'll see how he finishes the season.

 

[Morgs]

I just find it weird that the team, Dubas or Keefe haven’t really mentioned Gus outside of the trade announcement.

Schenn immediately made an agent announcement, McCabe, Lafferty, ROR and Acciari were all plane tracked and immediately announced they’d be dressed for the next game. Gus… silence

I just got to Jamaica so I'm a bit out of the loop, and only on HFboards because of how insane its been. I'm just trying to think logically behind it.

They might move him immediately. I have no idea. Just feels weird to acquire basically the current better version of Sandin and not use him when they used Ras whenever they got the chance. Especially because he legit might be the now best PP defenseman on the team.

 

[Menzinger]

Be hilarious if Chychrun goes nowhere.

I also can't see the Leafs' acquiring Schenn only to hold onto Holl.

Keep in mind McCabe and Brodie can play the right side, so even for depth it doesn't make sense between them and Timmins.

The Engvall move indicates to me that Dubas' isn't afraid to gain assets and parlay them into helping the team out in other ways.

Honestly, think it's a high probability that Chychrun becomes a draft trade for Phoenix, and they end up taking less than they could have had for him at the tdl. Seems like they're being greedy

 

[Kurtz]

Yeah I’m not concerned about bringing back Matthews or Nylander if they want too.

Seeing as there was talk directly from the league that this year was almost close to more than a 1M increase, I think next year could end up being even more than 7M

Let's hope that the Balley's Sports fiasco doesn't interfere with the cap increase.

 

[Gabriel426]

Wonder what Sens will do when their guys went public about getting players on TDL

 

[613Leafer]

I just got to Jamaica so I'm a bit out of the loop, and only on HFboards because of how insane its been. I'm just trying to think logically behind it.

They might move him immediately. I have no idea. Just feels weird to acquire basically the current better version of Sandin and not use him when they used Ras whenever they got the chance. Especially because he legit might be the now best PP defenseman on the team.

They also specifically traded for McCabe and Schenn to address physicality on the blueline, so one of the reasons they moved Sandin, was because he simply wouldn't play (or would barely play). Same applies to Gus - he's not walking into the same situation Sandin had a few weeks ago, he's walking into the situation that got Sandin traded.