Trades and Free Agency 2021 | Trade Deadline 6 weeks away

[TMLAM34]

Dermott-Liljegren reunites a really good Marlies pairing as well.

Sandin is the real wildcard. We may need him to get more time with the Marlies, but he may also be able to replace Dermott if Liljegren is playing with Muzzin.

There’s also a couple good UFA options. If we loose Holl in the expansion draft, which if he’s exposed we will, a guy I’d aim to sign would be Adam Larsson.

Rielly - Brodie
Sandin - Larsson
Muzzin - Liljegren

 

[Jozay]

Not really sure Liljegren would immediately go onto what would probably be the Leafs shutdown pair with Muzzin.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Dermott-Liljegren reunites a really good Marlies pairing as well.

Sandin is the real wildcard. We may need him to get more time with the Marlies, but he may also be able to replace Dermott if Liljegren is playing with Muzzin.

I don't know that I want them breaking in, at the same time, pn a team we are expecting to contend. Liljegren one year and Sandin thr next sounds a lot more inviting to me.

JMO.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm not terribly against it either. I'm also a "win now" guy, but cap stagnation is tough for a lot of teams to deal with and Toronto is no exception to that. Anderson and Muzzin are the only realistic contracts that you could move if you wanted to make roster alterations. Obviously Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Reilly aren't going anywhere and nobody else is making significant enough money to to create real cap flexibility.

Kerfoot at 3.5 gives you a little room, but extending Hyman + an ELC replacement eats up the vast majority of that money. Kessel's 1.2 comes off the cap next year, but that money will go to Reilly, likely along with savings from trimming Engvall, Simmomds and maybe even Anderson, over the next 2 years... By time Hyman and Reilly are extended, this teamnis pretty much "cap spaced" out. Let's hope what they have is good enough.

Hyman is not going to be making 4+ mill from us. At best he is getting the 3.5 mill Kerfoot is currently making, but that still opens up 1.5 mill if you replace Kerfoot with an ELC guy. I can even see the Leafs giving him 5 years (takes him to 34) and getting him locked in at like 2.75-3 mill. The hope would be he can continue being his current self for the next 2 or 3 years and then can still be an effective bottom 6er for the last 2 or 3 years.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Hyman is not going to be making 4+ mill from us. At best he is getting the 3.5 mill Kerfoot is currently making, but that still opens up 1.5 mill if you replace Kerfoot with an ELC guy. I can even see the Leafs giving him 5 years (takes him to 34) and getting him locked in at like 2.75-3 mill. The hope would be he can continue being his current self for the next 2 or 3 years and then can still be an effective bottom 6er for the last 2 or 3 years.

Really hoping Hyman takes a discount to stay in Toronto .. Seems like it's the place he really only wants to play and his family has money, so maybe a bargain could be had.

I like the idea of a 5 x $3-$3.5 mill AAV contract.

 

[TMLAM34]

I don’t see Hyman getting anything under 3.5M and at 3.5 I’ll gladly take him.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Hyman is not going to be making 4+ mill from us. At best he is getting the 3.5 mill Kerfoot is currently making, but that still opens up 1.5 mill if you replace Kerfoot with an ELC guy. I can even see the Leafs giving him 5 years (takes him to 34) and getting him locked in at like 2.75-3 mill. The hope would be he can continue being his current self for the next 2 or 3 years and then can still be an effective bottom 6er for the last 2 or 3 years.

I've got Hyman between 3.6-3.75 on his next deal, which means after an ELC replacement for Kerfoot, I think that opens between 1.25-1.5 in space. That's obviously not much. You can create another maybe 300-400k by moving Engvall, maybe 600k by moving on from Simmonds, but then you're basically "capped out". 2.5'ish million space isn't very much room after Hyman is extended... That brings you to one of Anderson or Muzzin as the assets you can move on from for flexibility.

 

[123offtheglass]

We're losing a valuable piece in expansion. People need to realize that. There's zero scenario where we lose the equivalent of a Leipsic again. At most, we can protect 4 defencemen, and that's if we only protect Tavares, Nylander, Marner, and Matthews up front.

Rielly will be protected, and Holl is frankly probably #2 at this point given performance + contract. Which leaves two spots for Dermott, Brodie, and/or Muzzin. Based on age/caphit, and like you said the fact that Dermott, Sandin, and Lehtonen are all left handed shots + we'd free up 5.6M in capspace that could also be used on a replacement. Muzzin is probably the one you expose (though that's also dependant on performances over the remainder of the season to some extent). Kerfoot/Mikheyev would also be exposed, though unless Mikheyev really takes off and gets back up to his point production from last year, I think Seattle would take one of our D.

The only real alternative is trying to trade picks/prospects with Seattle to protect Muzzin, but given how much we struggle to find capspace, trading one of Sandin, 1st rounder, Robertson, etc to try to protect Muzzin, doesn't make much sense to me.

No chance they expose Muzzin he's been our best D and wears an 'A'. Dermott is not in the conversation with the top 4 unless a major injury happens

 

[SprDaVE]

Really hoping Hyman takes a discount to stay in Toronto .. Seems like it's the place he really only wants to play and his family has money, so maybe a bargain could be had.

I like the idea of a 5 x $3-$3.5 mill AAV contract.

I am not sure he will do that but it would be nice to get a break there. I think ~5 x ~3.5M would be incredibly fair.

I am not sure he's the kind of player that will thrive going for a payday somewhere else. I feel like Hyman level players always completely implode when they go for the money... but hey, I would probably want to get paid top dollar too so I don't blame them for doing it.

 

[123offtheglass]

If Kerfoot can be taken at expansion draft or moved, I'd gladly take Barclay Goodrow at 3C for what Kerfoot makes or less and I think it would be less. He is a hometown kid and Tampa will have a ton of cap trouble next offseason, Kucherov 9.5m will be back on the books.

 

[Americanadian]

I think Nick Paul could be the Leafs Barclay Goodrow. Put him at 3C between Hyman and Mikheyev if Engvall can't do it longterm. Signed for 1.35M this year and next.

 

[TMLAM34]

Why would we move on from Simmonds? I think we’d be stupid to do so. Re-sign him for 1.5 million again for a bottom six role.

You have Robertson who could replace Kerfoot and play on the third pairing LW next season as well. If we can sign Getzlaf, Robertson - Getzlaf - Mikheyev could be a nice third line next year.

 

[Schenn]

My personal opinion is Hyman won't take $3.5 unless it is at least 6 years. If he can sustain his play for 4 years of that contract minimum, he will be one of the big alumnists you see around like Tucker.

 

[Jozay]

Hyman is not going to be making 4+ mill from us. At best he is getting the 3.5 mill Kerfoot is currently making, but that still opens up 1.5 mill if you replace Kerfoot with an ELC guy. I can even see the Leafs giving him 5 years (takes him to 34) and getting him locked in at like 2.75-3 mill. The hope would be he can continue being his current self for the next 2 or 3 years and then can still be an effective bottom 6er for the last 2 or 3 years.

I think you're dreaming if you think Hyman is taking 2.75.

Wouldnt be shocked at all if he got term and aav from this front office either.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Really hoping Hyman takes a discount to stay in Toronto .. Seems like it's the place he really only wants to play and his family has money, so maybe a bargain could be had.

I like the idea of a 5 x $3-$3.5 mill AAV contract.

Market value for him would be, at the very most, a deal like 4 x 3.5 mill. That would allow him to match the deal Paul Byron received a few years ago from Montreal (adjusting for cap), and slightly beat out Zach Kassian. Those would be his two main comparables, as both signed at 29 like he would be, and both are higher end complimentary guys. He's chasing money if he wants over 4 x 3.5 mill. Getting anything more than 2 or 3 years as a 29 year old complimentary guy is already respecting what he has brought to the team; it doesn't happen often.

If he took a discount, it would be something like 4 x 3.25 mill. Still a 1 mill raise and he is still getting the term he has earned. If he wants 5 years, it would have to be for less than 3 mill.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think you're dreaming if you think Hyman is taking 2.75.

Wouldnt be shocked at all if he got term and aav from this front office either.

I am sure Dubas loves Hyman, but he is not going to overpay him either. At the end of the day, he is not a core player and Dubas has shown he is not afraid to walk from those guys if they get too pricey. Unlike those other guys, Hyman is not even going to be in his prime either.

If you adjust for today's cap:
Zach Kassian (29) - 4 x 3.2 mill
Paul Byron (29) - 4 x 3.5 mill
Lars Eller (28) - 5 x 3.8 mill.

That's his market. None of those guys took discounts. Having a long term contract end at 33 is already a rarity for a guy like him, and represents how much the Leafs value him. He would still get a 3+ mill AAV on a 4 year deal even if he took a discount, so it is up to Hyman to determine if he wants to chase money or stay in pretty much his perfect spot.

 

[123offtheglass]

For next season I could see:
- Dermott exposed & selected by Seattle
- Kerfoot traded in salary cap freeing move (e.x. 2nd rounder)
- Namestikov traded for at this deadline @50% (1m)
- Hyman resigns 4mx5, Bogo resigned 1mx1, Simmonds resigns 1.25mx2, Andersen walks (hopefully with a cup ring)
- Sam Bennett signs as UFA 0.9mx1 with opportunity for top 6 role or be up down lineup like Simmonds in hometown
- Ullmark 2.8mx1 with opportunity to be starter/tandem with Campbell on a team that actually wins
- Goodrow signs 3mx4 for 3C slot on checking line in hometown + pk
- Some depth signings, prospects brought into AHL on ELC like Amirov, Niemela, Kokkonen
- Spezza retires but otherwise he resigns (maybe he & Jumbo join player development staff)

Robertson - Matthews - Marner
Namestikov - Tavares - Nylander
Mikheyev - Goodrow - Hyman
Bennett - Engvall - Simmonds
Scratched/Extra: Anderson

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Bogosian

Ullmark/Campbell

Cap space with 21 players: 1.2m

 

[TMLAM34]

I am sure Dubas loves Hyman, but he is not going to overpay him either. At the end of the day, he is not a core player and Dubas has shown he is not afraid to walk from those guys if they get too pricey. Unlike those other guys, Hyman is not even going to be in his prime either.

If you adjust for today's cap:
Zach Kassian (29) - 4 x 3.2 mill
Paul Byron (29) - 4 x 3.5 mill
Lars Eller (28) - 5 x 3.8 mill.

That's his market. None of those guys took discounts. Having a long term contract end at 33 is already a rarity for a guy like him, and represents how much the Leafs value him. He would still get a 3+ mill AAV on a 4 year deal even if he took a discount, so it is up to Hyman to determine if he wants to chase money or stay in pretty much his perfect spot.

Would you take any of those three players on your team over Hyman?

 

[hockeynorth]

Would you take any of those three players on your team over Hyman?

no

Hyman could arguably ask for the Pageau contract though that would be an overpayment.

 

[123offtheglass]

The best fair comparable to Zach Hyman is Alex Killorn (4.45m; 6.1% of cap at signing = 4.9715m) and Hyman is better than him. I can't see him taking anything less than a bargain at 4m unless it's some 7/8yr deal that he again takes a bargain on to get under 4m (sort of like the TJ Oshie signing I guess). He's been the Leafs 3rd best forward so far this season has he not?

 

[TMLAM34]

Exactly, if you think Hyman makes anything less than 3.5 even on a 5 year term, you’re dreaming. I think if we sign him to that contract, that’s him taking a hometown discount.

 

[123offtheglass]

no

Hyman could arguably ask for the Pageau contract though that would be an overpayment.

If that's what it took to resign him: 5mx6, would the Leafs resign him knowing his importance to the team or would you let him walk? Obviously they want him for something less

I'd say yes. I think that's actually fair market value both ways given he's a UFA. Something like 5.25-5.5mx6 is an overpayment but I'd still almost do it.

 

[SprDaVE]

Sounds like the Preds and Flyers are talking Ekholm.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think Nick Paul could be the Leafs Barclay Goodrow. Put him at 3C between Hyman and Mikheyev if Engvall can't do it longterm. Signed for 1.35M this year and next.

I like Nick Paul. He'd be a solid bottom-6 addition.

 

[GBLeaf]

What's Hall's record in the play-offs? He's having a bad year and how many times has he been moved in his career?

I want good characters.