It actually is how it works. He has two rings. He won them.
Murray is a gut transitioning styles that has struggled with his health. His health struggles have been both mental (concussions) and physical
In my mind if he can put his health struggles clearly behind him, he can definitely win a 3rd cup. I certainly hope that won't be for the Leafs.
Having two rings in the past does not mean you're capable of winning another one in the future. That's pretty silly to say.
Erik Karlsson has won 2 Norris trophies. I don't think anyone would say he's capable of winning another one based on the player he is today.
Murray has been "transitioning" styles since the 19/20 season. At some point, you are who you are.
He's at best a platoon goalie, and at this stage of his career, should be a back-up who can come in 25-30 times. He's not capable of playing 50+ regular season and then 20+ playoff games.
And let's call a spade a spade, his inability to stay healthy is in large part his own fault. Kevin Weekes said it the other day. He should have put on 10-15 pounds over the course of the last few years and focused on transforming his body. He does not have the physical strength or stamina to handle a starter's workload.